10-31-2018, 11:47 AM
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#21
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
I love Dube and what he does, he seems a bit snake bitten. Would it be smart to send him to the AHL for a bit to get his scoring confidence up and bring up someone like a Mangiapane for a look see?
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I think Dube will be a good NHLer but his lack of physical strength is a problem for him currently. It is too easy for opposing players to staple him to the boards and keep him there until the play moves on. One more off-season of strength building should do wonders.
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10-31-2018, 11:51 AM
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#22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheScorpion
One thing I get out of this -- Ryan is the Flames' most exposed forward, yet he's second only to Czarnik in terms of allowing the least amount of chances.
That's good stuff.
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That is good. The coach trusts him, he is dependable.
Imagine how much more energy he would have to apply to perfecting his checking game if he wasn’t deployed on the PP!
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10-31-2018, 11:53 AM
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#23
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Team Chart:
Flames 5on5 / 60 minutes VS the 16th best team (bubble) in each category.
Really points to where the team needs to improve, and the fact that they've taken steps in the right direction.
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I don’t know how to interpret this chart
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10-31-2018, 12:18 PM
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#24
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Scoring Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Team Chart:
Flames 5on5 / 60 minutes VS the 16th best team (bubble) in each category.
Really points to where the team needs to improve, and the fact that they've taken steps in the right direction.
[chart]
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I'm totally on your side as far as the importance of data and analytics in hockey, but I've gotta be honest: that's a bad chart. If you're trying to communicate something through data visualization it's your job to make it easy and intuitive to interpret.
Specifically: - Lines shouldn't be used to connect discrete, independent data points; they should be used to connect samples of a continuous value. The use of a line implies that you can interpolate between values on the line. So if a line chart measuring temperature has a data point at [2PM, 12 degrees] and at [6PM, 6 degrees], you can interpolate and say at 4PM it was probably ~9 degrees. In this case there's no intermediate value between [Game 2, 8 Scoring Chances/60 above median] and [Game 3, -8 Scoring Changes / 60 above median]
- Different measurements sharing the same axis. The bars being right next to one another implies they should be compared, but they're measuring different things. Visually, seeing the orange bar above the silver bar feels like it should mean something, but it's actually meaningless because Corsi events and scoring chances are different things. If you want to compare them on the same chart, some sort of normalization should be applied first (Maybe plotting the z-score of that measurement).
In general, I've found it much more effective to use Small Multiples when you've got a bunch of related, but different data to display.
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10-31-2018, 01:10 PM
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#25
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada
Can someone remind me why Hathaway has been in the lineup in the first place? He was a nice story a few years ago when inserted in the lineup a bit of a good luck charm but over the course of last season and into this one he's the very definition of replacement player. He should really only get in the lineup in the case of injury replacement or when one of the other forwards is downright terrible and deserves a night in the pressbox. He should not be a regular player for any NHL team.
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For me, this is where the stats and eye test just don't match. I've been pleasantly happy with Hathaway this year. Finishes checks, gets into scrums. Does he generate offense, no, and the line he's playing gets stuck in their own zone a bit, but id wager the same would be true of his replacement. He's the 12th forward and not really a detriment.
It's nice to think about having 4 skilled scoring lines, heck i dreamed about that all summer but the truth of the matter is outside of our top line and tkatchuk, nobody can score on this team. Given that, having some grit is fine by me.
Unrelated question : what does "differential" mean in the stats shared?
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10-31-2018, 01:17 PM
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#26
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
I love Dube and what he does, he seems a bit snake bitten. Would it be smart to send him to the AHL for a bit to get his scoring confidence up and bring up someone like a Mangiapane for a look see?
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Listening between the lines to an interview with the Stockton coach it doesn't sound like Mangiapane has earned a trip north. He damned him and his linemates with faint praise like "starting to figure it out/settle in" or something like that. He seemed to like Lazar a whole lot more.
If there were going to send Dube down they'd have done it before his contract kicked. And I don't think he has a confidence issue, he has a bad luck/close call issue. He's been right there for goals. If he does have a confidence issue I don't think a demotion will help.
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10-31-2018, 01:30 PM
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#27
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
I agree. I have never been impressed with Hathaway, but also thought he looked good in his first game or two this season. But he really should not be in any more than a handful of games unless filling in for an injured player. My hope is that Czarnik gets back into the lineup, and Hathaway takes a seat for a while.
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The one thing he does very well, and more consistently this year is be an ass.
There is value in that.
But he's pulling away as the worst player on the ice every night when it comes to what happens when he's out there.
Only three players are sub 50% CF, and he's at 44%
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10-31-2018, 01:35 PM
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#28
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by edslunch
I don’t know how to interpret this chart
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You want everything above zero ... the thick grey line.
Every column above zero means the team is doing better offensively than the 16th place team in that category.
Every line point above zero means the team is doing better defensively than the 16th place team in that category.
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10-31-2018, 01:37 PM
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#29
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kovaz
I'm totally on your side as far as the importance of data and analytics in hockey, but I've gotta be honest: that's a bad chart. If you're trying to communicate something through data visualization it's your job to make it easy and intuitive to interpret.
Specifically: - Lines shouldn't be used to connect discrete, independent data points; they should be used to connect samples of a continuous value. The use of a line implies that you can interpolate between values on the line. So if a line chart measuring temperature has a data point at [2PM, 12 degrees] and at [6PM, 6 degrees], you can interpolate and say at 4PM it was probably ~9 degrees. In this case there's no intermediate value between [Game 2, 8 Scoring Chances/60 above median] and [Game 3, -8 Scoring Changes / 60 above median]
- Different measurements sharing the same axis. The bars being right next to one another implies they should be compared, but they're measuring different things. Visually, seeing the orange bar above the silver bar feels like it should mean something, but it's actually meaningless because Corsi events and scoring chances are different things. If you want to compare them on the same chart, some sort of normalization should be applied first (Maybe plotting the z-score of that measurement).
In general, I've found it much more effective to use Small Multiples when you've got a bunch of related, but different data to display.
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Some good feedback, thanks
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10-31-2018, 01:38 PM
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#30
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
Listening between the lines to an interview with the Stockton coach it doesn't sound like Mangiapane has earned a trip north. He damned him and his linemates with faint praise like "starting to figure it out/settle in" or something like that. He seemed to like Lazar a whole lot more.
If there were going to send Dube down they'd have done it before his contract kicked. And I don't think he has a confidence issue, he has a bad luck/close call issue. He's been right there for goals. If he does have a confidence issue I don't think a demotion will help.
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Dube's contract wasn't slide possible ... he never had a ticking time date as I understand.
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10-31-2018, 01:39 PM
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#31
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
The one thing he does very well, and more consistently this year is be an ass.
There is value in that.
But he's pulling away as the worst player on the ice every night when it comes to what happens when he's out there.
Only three players are sub 50% CF, and he's at 44%
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Hathaway is great in short doses. Peters needs to keep an eye on whether his energy starts to drop, his physical play lessens, etc.
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10-31-2018, 01:39 PM
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#32
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Section 203
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
I wish the words "advanced" and "fancy" were never added to something so bloody simple.
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I don't think advanced stats are so bloody simple. I say this as a guy who has watched hockey for many years, has been a STH for over a decade, and has excelled in many mathematics courses. The reason they aren't straight forward is they get presented like this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Team Chart:
Flames 5on5 / 60 minutes VS the 16th best team (bubble) in each category.
Really points to where the team needs to improve, and the fact that they've taken steps in the right direction.
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When I see that chart I picture this:
Even if I understood what each item stood for, which I don't, it's really hard to read what's going on. From looking at that I have zero idea what the team needs to improve on. I don't know how anyone would interpret that chart without an in depth knowledge of advanced analytics. I don't even think it's comparing apples to apples. It might not even be apples to oranges. It could be apples to vehicles.
This, to me, is the major flaw of advanced stats. They are presented in a way that's no immediately grasped, as opposed to points, goals, save percentage, and the advanced stats people get irritated when they have to explain things over and over. If it was that simple, it would be simple.
__________________
My thanks equals mod team endorsement of your post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Jesus this site these days
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barnet Flame
He just seemed like a very nice person. I loved Squiggy.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dissentowner
I should probably stop posting at this point
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10-31-2018, 01:42 PM
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#33
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Moscow
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Based on these statistics, I would really like to see them consistently try Bennett-Backlund-Tkachuk as the second line.
__________________
"Life of Russian hockey veterans is very hard," said Soviet hockey star Sergei Makarov. "Most of them don't have enough to eat these days. These old players are Russian legends."
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10-31-2018, 01:43 PM
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#34
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squiggs96
I don't think advanced stats are so bloody simple. I say this as a guy who has watched hockey for many years, has been a STH for over a decade, and has excelled in many mathematics courses. The reason they aren't straight forward is they get presented like this:
Even if I understood what each item stood for, which I don't, it's really hard to read what's going on. From looking at that I have zero idea what the team needs to improve on. I don't know how anyone would interpret that chart without an in depth knowledge of advanced analytics. I don't even think it's comparing apples to apples. It might not even be apples to oranges. It could be apples to vehicles.
This, to me, is the major flaw of advanced stats. They are presented in a way that's no immediately grasped, as opposed to points, goals, save percentage, and the advanced stats people get irritated when they have to explain things over and over. If it was that simple, it would be simple.
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Well you can certainly shoot the graph as a culprit for sure, to each their own.
But the stats themselves aren't that difficult.
Someone counts how many times the Flames attempt a shot for in a game when five on five, and how many times their opposition does.
Inside that are shades ... a scoring chance within a set section of the ice, and a high danger chance that occurs in that same area, but is generated by a list of factors like a pass or rebound or deflection that make it more dangerous.
There's no formula or hypothesis at work, just a count. Not that difficult.
If the graph made it confusing that's on me not the stat.
But as I said ... everything above zero is good. Below zero is bad.
The columns are mostly above = Flames good at offence.
The lines are mostly below = Flames bad at defense.
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10-31-2018, 01:44 PM
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#35
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Dube's contract wasn't slide possible ... he never had a ticking time date as I understand.
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Thanks, I heard the ten days didn't apply for being sent back (because he's done junior) but I thought I heard it still applied to the slide.
Either way, I'd keep him up. If a guy deserves to be on the team I think it does more harm than its worth to artificially extend his contract one more year anyway.
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10-31-2018, 01:47 PM
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#37
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
If I am reading it correctly, I think they need to work on games 3, 8, 9 and 11
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They were awful in what they gave up in games 3 (Preds W), 6 (Bruins W), and 8 (Rangers W)
Had leads in all of them and let their goaltender do too much work.
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10-31-2018, 02:28 PM
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#39
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Well you can certainly shoot the graph as a culprit for sure, to each their own.
But the stats themselves aren't that difficult.
Someone counts how many times the Flames attempt a shot for in a game when five on five, and how many times their opposition does.
Inside that are shades ... a scoring chance within a set section of the ice, and a high danger chance that occurs in that same area, but is generated by a list of factors like a pass or rebound or deflection that make it more dangerous.
There's no formula or hypothesis at work, just a count. Not that difficult.
If the graph made it confusing that's on me not the stat.
But as I said ... everything above zero is good. Below zero is bad.
The columns are mostly above = Flames good at offence.
The lines are mostly below = Flames bad at defense.
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Honestly a good way to start demystifying these stats is call them what they are like ‘shot attempt %’ instead of ‘Corsi’ which is the name of a guy. Same with PDO:
“PDO is not actually an acronym for anything. It comes from the online handle of Brian King, the first to propose it, for forums and Counter-Strike.[8]”
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10-31-2018, 03:24 PM
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#40
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
Peters put Neal on the Backlund line halfway through the game and to my eye it looked pretty good. I'd put him there for a while to see what happens.
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I wouldn't mind seeing the following deployed for awhile:
Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm
Tkachuk-Backlund-Neal
Bennett-Jankowski-Dube
Frolik-Ryan-Hathaway
I've been disappointed in Ryan and Jankowski as I don't think either are playing at a 3rd line center level.
I wonder how Czarnik would look up the middle?
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