[Trade] Elias Lindholm + Noah Hanifin to Flames for D. Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, & Adam Fox

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

How exactly does this work?

GG’s shoot from anywhere approach would be one. Very few scoring opportunities compared with shots

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by the2bears

Is he though, yet? Certainly he will be, sooner or later, but this implies you think he declined last year. That's not what I saw. No decline yet, slow or not.

I noticed it. He peaked in 2014/15 and hasn't hit 40 points in two seasons now. That's not his entire game or anything but he's not going to be better next season than he was this season and now he's going to be playing with a worse partner. I feel the powerplay should be much improved and the forward group should be more dangerous so this should be offset so it's not a major concern as long as Brodie can get back on track.

[Monahammer]

I like how people argue that gulutzan style hampered all of our d, except dougie for some unknown reason who performed well enough.

Is it not possible that Hamilton would have performed better under another coach?

I think the key to this trade is lindholm. hanifin is ok but from what I've seen I dont think he will ever get to dougie's level. If lindholm improves to a ~60 point player then I think it's a win for us

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by PugnaciousIntern

GG’s shoot from anywhere approach would be one. Very few scoring opportunities compared with shots

This doesn't work though.

Say a team wanted a corsi event so they shot from center ice ... all they are doing is giving up possession and the other team brings it back at you. A game of taking muffins from distances wouldn't pad corsi because you wouldn't sustain enough time to run up totals.

I see this "fake corsi" thing from time to time but it's a fallacy.

You actually need to sustain pressure to out corsi the opposition, you can't fake it.

The Flames clearly had a territorial advantage last season but they didn't put enough pucks in the net to make it an actual advantage. Some suggest their high danger chances weren't that high danger, and I think there's something to that. But the bulk of it was setting a modern record for an NHL team shooting wide.

[Galakanokis]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I noticed it. He peaked in 2014/15 and hasn't hit 40 points in two seasons now. That's not his entire game or anything but he's not going to be better next season than he was this season and now he's going to be playing with a worse partner. I feel the powerplay should be much improved and the forward group should be more dangerous so this should be offset so it's not a major concern as long as Brodie can get back on track.

To me, Giordano did way more heavy lifting with Hamilton than he ever did with Brodie. He had to carry Hamilton where he didn't have to as much with Brodie. I think you see a return to form for Gio next year if you want to call it that. The man's game hasn't slipped one bit of you ask me.

I don't think the Flames miss Hamilton nearly as much as the stats say they will.

[Resolute 14]

If there is one thing the Flames did not create under Gulutzan, it was pressure. I don't think there is a strong correlation between pressure and Corsi. At all.

[Erick Estrada]

Peters right now on 960 saying Giordano told him that Brodie felt more comfortable on the right hand side. Makes you wonder about the previous staff when they continued to play a guy in a position he wasn't comfortable in for two seasons. So strange for a coach to be so rigid in his convictions that he was willing to sink with them rather than adapt.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Galakanokis

To me, Giordano did way more heavy lifting with Hamilton than he ever did with Brodie. He had to carry Hamilton where he didn't have to as much with Brodie. I think you see a return to form for Gio next year if you want to call it that. The man's game hasn't slipped one bit of you ask me.

I don't think the Flames miss Hamilton nearly as much as the stats say they will.

he certainly carried Hamilton in the early stages of their partnership. Not sure if I remember that correctly, but I believe Hamilton struggled mightily during the first months after being paired with Giordano and he frequently needed to be bailed out. Not nearly as much last season, but yeah, I still think Gio was the key member of the pairing throughout their partnership. If Brodie can return to the level that he was at before Hamilton took his spot next to Gio, this trade to me is a slam dunk. In any way, I think our defense is more balanced now because I also expect Hanifin-Hamonic to work really well together.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Peters right now on 960 saying Giordano told him that Brodie felt more comfortable on the right hand side. Makes you wonder about the previous staff when they continued to play a guy in a position he wasn't comfortable in for two seasons. So strange for a coach to be so rigid in his convictions that he was willing to sink with them rather than adapt.

Infuriating. Especially with how many CP posters absolutely KNEW this fact.

You play the hand you’re dealt, you don’t try and pass off a diamond as a spade.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

If there is one thing the Flames did not create under Gulutzan, it was pressure. I don't think there is a strong correlation between pressure and Corsi. At all.

That's just so unlikely

I think a good argument can be made about pressure going for naught, or that you can get shot attempts but not threaten to score.

But you can't be a top three team in shot attempts without pressure. It just doesn't work.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Bingo

This doesn't work though.

Say a team wanted a corsi event so they shot from center ice ... all they are doing is giving up possession and the other team brings it back at you. A game of taking muffins from distances wouldn't pad corsi because you wouldn't sustain enough time to run up totals.

I see this "fake corsi" thing from time to time but it's a fallacy.

You actually need to sustain pressure to out corsi the opposition, you can't fake it.

The Flames clearly had a territorial advantage last season but they didn't put enough pucks in the net to make it an actual advantage. Some some uggest their high danger chances weren't that high danger, and I think there's something to that. But the bulk of it was setting a modern record for an NHL team shooting wide.

If we are going with Corsi, isn’t that the definition? I might be misunderstanding you. They put enough numbers of pucks at the net.

I agree with the whole ‘dump from center ice into the net, and you don’t sustain pressure’ argument. But it’s much easier to take the easy shot from outside home plate, than hang onto the puck, make a few plays, and take the more threatening shot. You sacrifice quantity for quality in most things, shots included.

I agree that ‘fake Corsi’ makes no sense, but I entirely believe that a team can increase the volume of shots on net while decreasing the quality of those shots. That happens every time a new goalie enters a game. I think this is all pretty intuitive, but the disagreements may be more on semantics and personal interpretation of what Corsi means (shots vs. possession). A better term might be ‘fake posession’.

Edit: I did misread. You said IN the net, not ON the net.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by PugnaciousIntern

I agree that ‘fake Corsi’ makes no sense, but I entirely believe that a team can increase the volume of shots on net while decreasing the quality of those shots. That happens every time a new goalie enters a game. I think this is all pretty intuitive, but the disagreements may be more on semantics and personal interpretation of what Corsi means (shots vs. possession). A better term might be ‘fake posession’.

Bottom line you have to have the puck a lot ot consistently out corsi the opposition. What you do with the puck though is where things can differ. If you just shoot from everywhere I don't think you get the corsi up because you're always getting rid of it. But that doesn't say you're getting quality chances with your owning the puck.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Again, the stats say this, but watching the player play sure didn't. Hamilton was a good player last year, and his shot is elite. But suggesting he was a monster is laughable.

My original point was that stats guys hate the trade because they love Hamilton. And people that rely on watching him play are far less enamored with him. And you refuted that with another stat calling him a monster.

Yes, he is a stats darling. But the Flames will not miss him defensively IMO.

I thought you were saying you don't need to rely on the culture change narrative to justify the trade because the flaws in Hamilton's game are capable of justifying the trade all by themselves. That's why I responded with a metric to show that I disagree.

I used a metric because I think it's a bad idea to rely on my eyes and memories in evaluating players. I miss most of the game because it is not caught on camera. Even with respect to what is caught on camera, I only pay attention to some of it at any one time. Even with respect to what I see, my memory is flawed and is incorrect much of the time (especially because my especially strong biases about hockey warp them). I don't think I am alone in this. Eyewitness evidence is the undisputed #1 cause of wrongful convictions in the criminal justice system. Eyewitnesses are overly confident about what they remember. That is why I don't rely on watching the games and remembering them in evaluating players.

By monster, I meant that Hamilton is a really good player, not physically tough or dominant.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Infuriating. Especially with how many CP posters absolutely KNEW this fact.

You play the hand you’re dealt, you don’t try and pass off a diamond as a spade.

TBF, he did have Hamilton, Stone and Hamonic - all RHS, who played right side. I guess he thought Brodie could adapt. Really, Brodie should have been able to do that. After all, is it easier for the guy playing offhand to adapt to play strong side or for a guy playing strong side to switch and adapt to weak side? Brodie had played right side for a lot of his career before pairing with Gio.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

TBF, he did have Hamilton, Stone and Hamonic - all RHS, who played right side.

yes, last season. But he took Brodie off the top pairing way before that and paired him with Wideman. That was half a season before they traded for Stone and a full season before they got Hamonic.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

This doesn't work though.

Say a team wanted a corsi event so they shot from center ice ... all they are doing is giving up possession and the other team brings it back at you. A game of taking muffins from distances wouldn't pad corsi because you wouldn't sustain enough time to run up totals.

I see this "fake corsi" thing from time to time but it's a fallacy.

You actually need to sustain pressure to out corsi the opposition, you can't fake it.

The Flames clearly had a territorial advantage last season but they didn't put enough pucks in the net to make it an actual advantage. Some suggest their high danger chances weren't that high danger, and I think there's something to that. But the bulk of it was setting a modern record for an NHL team shooting wide.

I don’t like the use of the word fake in this context. Stupid Trump and people who say what he says.

But say a team with a quick transition game gets an odd man rush, generates a truly dangerous scoring chance, and scores a goal on their first shot. Then they return to the neutral zone with only one corsi event to show for it. That’s not sustained pressure. And doesn’t out corsi anyone. And is something the Flames were bad at last year.

Meanwhile, the team that gets all 5 guys ready to move together, while the opposing team sets up the D structure, is kept to the outside, and may get rebounds, leading to more Corsi events. They may try to pick corners and miss, and may pick up the pucks that are moved away from the front of the net into the corners or the outside, because that’s where their players are.

That’s what 14-15 Hartley let other teams do. Fill your boots with shots from the outside. That’s what Gulutzan’s Flames did.

Maybe it’s semantics. The other teams let the Flames have the puck to the outside and take low percentage shots until they can regain possession. You can call it sustained pressure, but it is arguably equal parts rope a dope.

There is no narrative that changes what we saw last year. Lots of shots, not dangerous, losing hockey.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I don’t like the use of the word fake in this context. Stupid Trump and people who say what he says.

But say a team with a quick transition game gets an odd man rush, generates a truly dangerous scoring chance, and scores a goal on their first shot. Then they return to the neutral zone with only one corsi event to show for it. That’s not sustained pressure. And doesn’t out corsi anyone. And is something the Flames were bad at last year.

Meanwhile, the team that gets all 5 guys ready to move together, while the opposing team sets up the D structure, is kept to the outside, and may get rebounds, leading to more Corsi events. They may try to pick corners and miss, and may pick up the pucks that are moved away from the front of the net into the corners or the outside, because that’s where their players are.

That’s what 14-15 Hartley let other teams do. Fill your boots with shots from the outside. That’s what Gulutzan’s Flames did.

Maybe it’s semantics. The other teams let the Flames have the puck to the outside and take low percentage shots until they can regain possession. You can call it sustained pressure, but it is arguably equal parts rope a dope.

There is no narrative that changes what we saw last year. Lots of shots, not dangerous, losing hockey.

I agree with most of that ... until the end.

The Flames were high in slot metrics as well, they weren't a shooting from the perimeter team.

They were 8th in scoring chances, and 4th in high danger corsi events, they had plenty of time shooting from the areas where you are more likely to score. (splits 3rd and 2nd as percentages)

But I think they were down the list in shots that came from passes that would force movement from the goalie and with that they were unable to use where they were to their advantage.

This off season they've acquired passing pieces almost primarily. Hanifin is an elite entry guy, Lindholm is off the charts in passes leading to shots, so is Ryan. Neal is a one timer expert playing the off side.

They clearly saw the same thing in their post season analysis.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I noticed it. He peaked in 2014/15 and hasn't hit 40 points in two seasons now. That's not his entire game or anything but he's not going to be better next season than he was this season and now he's going to be playing with a worse partner. I feel the powerplay should be much improved and the forward group should be more dangerous so this should be offset so it's not a major concern as long as Brodie can get back on track.

GG might explain some of this.

[Erick Estrada]

The Flames did waste a lot of scoring chances last year by hitting posts or missing the net at a rate that was probably amongst the highest in the league (certainly the highest I can recall in recent years) so you can't blame the coach for everything but when a team collectively is missing the net so often you have to wonder why.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by devo22

yes, last season. But he took Brodie off the top pairing way before that and paired him with Wideman. That was half a season before they traded for Stone and a full season before they got Hamonic.

Sure, that was because they thought Hamilton should have top pairing minutes and Hamilton - Wideman was not going to work - two RHS, plus not a good stylistic matchup at all. That's also understandable. Hamilton-Engelland would also be two RHS, and Kulak wasn't ready to play bigger minutes. Their defensive roster was kind of a mess, even though many of the pieces (including Engelland and Wideman) were coming off of good seasons.