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Old 02-24-2016, 01:47 PM   #1101
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I still think the league is in a flux between

a) those that refuse to consider advanced stats (potentially Hartley)

and

b) those that think the only thing that should be considered is advanced stats

both are criminal mistakes
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Old 02-24-2016, 01:52 PM   #1102
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I still think the league is in a flux between

a) those that refuse to consider advanced stats (potentially Hartley)

and

b) those that think the only thing that should be considered is advanced stats

both are criminal mistakes
b) is a lot more criminal than a)
I'd be surprised if any of the best coaches in the league put a ton of stock into advanced stats.
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Old 02-24-2016, 01:56 PM   #1103
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Just numbers is insane, I agree

But a new resource to help you see what to date you haven't and it's ignored? That's pretty stupid.
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Old 02-24-2016, 01:58 PM   #1104
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No, they aren't. Hockey is more than shot generation and shot suppression.
The LA Kings disagree. They firmly believe Hockey is all about shot generation and shot suppression. Their every system is built around that. And they even missed the playoffs last year yet considered themselves enough of a contender to trade their 1st for a pending UFA (Lucic) because they knew they were pretty good (read: the best) at shot generation and shot suppression. They even make trades for guys who fit their shot generation and shot suppression system that other teams don't think are NHLers any more (Vincent LeCavalier). They play young mistake-prone defensemen (Muzzin early in his career) plenty under the assumption that shot generation and shot suppression compensates for the visible errors.

Go Figure.

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Old 02-24-2016, 01:59 PM   #1105
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For the most part, advanced stats can help, they don't always though.

I'm more about basic stats, I don't care who shoots more or what percentage shots are or corsi or fenwick or whatever the heck else there is. The score at the end of the game matters more than anything.
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Old 02-24-2016, 01:59 PM   #1106
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Advanced stats are like looking at a Picasso and explaining it in terms of paint strokes and colour shades. While some people can just look at it and see the art, others need to be able to compartmentalize it to have it make sense.

They compliment each other well, but advanced stats won't help you much if you can't see the big picture.
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Old 02-24-2016, 01:59 PM   #1107
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How many times has Bouma been a healthy scratch this season? By my count, he's missed 34 due to injury and 1 for disciplinary reasons. He's played in 23 games. That adds up to 58 games, and the Flames have played 59, so he's been a healthy scratch once this season.

Jooris has played 40 and missed 1 for undisclosed reasons. That means he's been a healthy scratch 18 times.
I was talking about how time he's missed with injury this season, which has been significant. Which makes sense for a guy that plays like a viking going down with the ship. I like Bouma a lot.

But his contract is not great value for games played because he's been sidelined so often and when he is playing to his strengths, you can reasonably expect he's going to get injured.

Having Bouma on a not-so-great contract is fine as long as there are guys that can play well for cheap. Jooris is an effective role player that the Flames can hold onto cheap. You know what your going to get. Same story with Byron.

As pointed out many times in this thread, there are some bad value contracts in the bottom six ranks, which makes holding on to decent players more important.
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Old 02-24-2016, 02:00 PM   #1108
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Just numbers is insane, and the handful of posters that just regurgitate them post after post makes you go loopy.
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Old 02-24-2016, 02:02 PM   #1109
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Originally Posted by GranteedEV View Post
The LA Kings disagree. They firmly believe Hockey is all about shot generation and shot suppression. Their every system is built around that. And they even missed the playoffs last year yet considered themselves enough of a contender to trade their 1st for a pending UFA (Lucic) because they knew they were pretty good (read: the best) at shot generation and shot suppression.

Go Figure.
And you think Darryl Sutter came to that conclusion from reading Corsi charts?

Kings are also one of the bigger heavier teams in the NHL.
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Old 02-24-2016, 02:02 PM   #1110
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b) is a lot more criminal than a)
I'd be surprised if any of the best coaches in the league put a ton of stock into advanced stats.
I disagree that one is more criminal than the other. I think stats can paint a picture at times, while so can coaching.

For example, I don't have to watch a single game of Crosby to know he's one of the best players in the world. I could look at his point totals and ice time alone year after year to paint that picture. Now when a coach continuously plays a player despite their stats (ie, Justin Schultz) due to favouritism or whatever, that's equally as criminal as people saying Robin Reghre sucked because he didn't put up 20 goals.
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Old 02-24-2016, 02:03 PM   #1111
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[QUOTE=Bingo;5643636]Just numbers is insane, I agree

EDIT: you know I misread your post. I figured you were going off on fans and advanced stats but you meant the folks inside the NHL.

I think the Flames have it right, not Corsi lovers but their own system and they can paint themselves a picture of what they need. Cool with that. I rescind my previous thoughts.
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Old 02-24-2016, 02:04 PM   #1112
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Just numbers is insane, and the handful of posters that just regurgitate them post after post makes you go loopy.
73% of us already knew that and almost 62% of people knew that the other 27% are mostly in the first 5%.


When do you think most of the trades happen? I'm going to say that most trades actually happen on monday and not leading up to it like it has in the past.
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Old 02-24-2016, 02:04 PM   #1113
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Jooris isn't going to win you a game single handedly, but if he's productive, effect, and above adequate in his role, all while being cheap, why trade him for a late round draft pick?

So maybe we can draft another Jooris to be ready in 4 years?
The Flames also have a bunch of guys in Stockton who are probably close to providing what Jooris brings right now. I think Agostino and Hamilton could get an extended look now and Hathaway and Elson are also both energy type players similar to Jooris who could see some NHL time. That's not even mentioning centres like Shore and Arnold. If the Flames feel that these guys are ready to be the 13th forward, then it makes sense to trade Jooris for a pick. Moving Hathaway or Elson up, also gives more ice time to the next wave of Carroll and Smith. Moving Agostino and Hamilton up, also gives Poirier and Klimchuk more ice in their roles.

I value what Jooris brings too, but if you have similar guys pushing, eventually you will lose some to waivers, so you might as well get something for them.
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Old 02-24-2016, 02:06 PM   #1114
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The Flames also have a bunch of guys in Stockton who are probably close to providing what Jooris brings right now. I think Agostino and Hamilton could get an extended look now and Hathaway and Elson are also both energy type players similar to Jooris who could see some NHL time. That's not even mentioning centres like Shore and Arnold. If the Flames feel that these guys are ready to be the 13th forward, then it makes sense to trade Jooris for a pick. Moving Hathaway or Elson up, also gives more ice time to the next wave of Carroll and Smith. Moving Agostino and Hamilton up, also gives Poirier and Klimchuk more ice in their roles.

I value what Jooris brings too, but if you have similar guys pushing, eventually you will lose some to waivers, so you might as well get something for them.
Why does no one mention Grant? He's an AHL all star, one of the top goals per game pace in the AHL, big, strong, good on faceoffs. Seems like an ideal 4th line player for us next year. UFA but we can re-sign him.
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Old 02-24-2016, 02:07 PM   #1115
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Is it stupid to not be a fan of advanced data? All it does is create further avenues in debate with others. And I might be more inclined to follow advanced stats more if they actually had any credibility in the game itself. Right now to me all advanced stats are, are for people to use in debate and argument when reality outside of those numbers paints a very different picture.

It's been consistent since day #1. Oh this players Corsi says this, he won't find success, player finds great success going against corsi... It's a sham, smoke and mirrors for the debate class.
Can you provide examples?

The beauty of sports, especially hockey, is there's no one number that tells you everything about the player. It's a tapestry.

My eye test and the numbers agree: Russell bleeds chances against because he's always sliding around.

Johnny allows more shots against as well, but context means you can point to how he's even more effective going the other way, so you live with that.

To can a whole myriad of different objective descriptors a sham suggests to me that you just don't like what they say
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Old 02-24-2016, 02:10 PM   #1116
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And you think Darryl Sutter came to that conclusion from reading Corsi charts?
Here are some conclusions Darryl Sutter has come to:

Quote:
They think there’s defending in today’s game. Nah, it’s how much you have the puck. Teams that play around in their own zone (say) they’re defending but they’re generally getting scored on
You look back to the 2004 Flames and you realize Darryl's been all about shot generation and shot suppression that far back. That "Cinderella Underdog Team" that Kipper Carried? They had a shots for percentage of 52%.

Call it corsi, call it shots, call it shot attempts, call it "Aggressive 2-1-2", call it "size" it doesn't matter. Teams that have the puck win more games than teams that don't have the puck. And that can be small teams like the Lightning and Blackhawks too. Corsi is just one way to measure it.

You look at the corsi of Flames teams during Darryl's reign you had:

2008 Flames - 52.5 (5th)
2009 Flames - 55.7 (2nd)
2010 Flames - 51.9 (9th) (SUtter stepped down in December)

I think Darryl was using internal possession analytics long before "corsi" became a thing.

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Old 02-24-2016, 02:12 PM   #1117
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Can you provide examples?

The beauty of sports, especially hockey, is there's no one number that tells you everything about the player. It's a tapestry.

My eye test and the numbers agree: Russell bleeds chances against because he's always sliding around.

Johnny allows more shots against as well, but context means you can point to how he's even more effective going the other way, so you live with that.

To can a whole myriad of different objective descriptors a sham suggests to me that you just don't like what they say
I can provide 1 example, the 2014/2015 Calgary Flames and their players. Another example would be the same team this year.

Poor possession stats last year, team found success. Better possession stats this year and here we are, talking about Finns and Matthews.

There are a ton of different types of fans who follow the game. some people cannot just watch a game for the sake of watching it, they need to fill their heads with a stock ticker of stats and percentages to find any use in watching the game. But this isn't baseball or Football. It's not a linear sport of limited moves per play.
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Old 02-24-2016, 02:14 PM   #1118
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Old 02-24-2016, 02:15 PM   #1119
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Corsi is pretty much garbage for rating individual players. Pairings, groups, teams? Yeah, that makes sense. One guy on the ice? It doesn't illuminate everything.
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Old 02-24-2016, 02:17 PM   #1120
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What are the chances of getting a separate thread just for rumors/tweets/news? Hard to find any new info here with all the discussion.
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