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Old 07-10-2017, 09:26 PM   #801
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It's never shrunk yet. Not even through the "Great Recession".



You predicting an apocalypse?

Doooooooooooooooooooooom...
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Old 07-10-2017, 10:02 PM   #802
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It's never shrunk yet. Not even through the "Great Recession".

You predicting an apocalypse?
Not shrunk, but slowed significantly. The first 3 years the cap increased by double digit amounts (12%, 14%, 12%) and over the first 7 years it increased by an average of 8% per year. The last 5 years the increase has never gone higher than 7% annually and has increased by an average of 4% per year. The cap is growing 1/2 as fast as it used to. I can see no economic outlook that predicts it will increase beyond that amount and in all likelihood will hold steady or decrease.

Let's be optimistic and say it continues to increase at 4% the cap will be 81 million in 3 years. McDavid will still count towrads 15% of the cap. Throw in guys who will still be on their longterm deals at that time Nuge (6.0), Lucic (6.0), Sekera (5.5), Klefbom (4.1), Larsson (4.1), Russell (4.0, LOL), Kassian (1.95), guessing Draisaitl will be about 7.0. That's 51.5 million. On 8 players. You'll have 29.5 million to try and fill 7 forward spots, 2 D spots and a goalie (or under 3 million/player). Good luck in Charelli induced cap hell.
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Old 07-10-2017, 10:18 PM   #803
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I am betting that the cap starts to stall, then slide and no one gets close to $12.5 m. By the time of the next CBA expiration McDavid is making close to 20% of the Oilers' payroll.
Except the NHL is moving into a star paying league. The PA will push for stars to be paid more (12+ million) and depth to be paid less.

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Old 07-10-2017, 10:22 PM   #804
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Except the NHL is moving into a star paying league. The PA will push for stars to be paid more (12+ million) and depth to be paid less.
Who do you think will be higher? What player will be coming up for a new deal that will command more? The only guy I can see as being a remote possibly is Matthews
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Old 07-10-2017, 10:23 PM   #805
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I am betting that the cap starts to stall, then slide and no one gets close to $12.5 m. By the time of the next CBA expiration McDavid is making close to 20% of the Oilers' payroll.
So in 5 years you are betting on a $62.5 million salary cap?
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Old 07-10-2017, 10:26 PM   #806
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Who do you think will be higher? What player will be coming up for a new deal that will command more? The only guy I can see as being a remote possibly is Matthews
A GM signed Toews to 10 million. You think if a couple guys hit UFA and see what McDavid make they won't hold out... till another GM pays?

Don't forget Crosbys number is only because he signed a back diving deal. No one else will be leaving money like that on the table.
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Old 07-10-2017, 10:35 PM   #807
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Except the NHL is moving into a star paying league. The PA will push for stars to be paid more (12+ million) and depth to be paid less.


Yeah, no way is that even kind of true. The major majority of the NHLPA aren't stars. You think the PA is going to favor a couple dozen superstars over a couple hundred non-superstars? Is Fehr looking to be fired?
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Old 07-10-2017, 10:39 PM   #808
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A GM signed Toews to 10 million. You think if a couple guys hit UFA and see what McDavid make they won't hold out... till another GM pays?

Don't forget Crosbys number is only because he signed a back diving deal. No one else will be leaving money like that on the table.
Again I ask...who? Who is coming up for a deal that gets more than McDavid?
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Old 07-10-2017, 11:04 PM   #809
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Again I ask...who? Who is coming up for a deal that gets more than McDavid?
Hopefully no one.
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Old 07-10-2017, 11:31 PM   #810
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Not shrunk, but slowed significantly. The first 3 years the cap increased by double digit amounts (12%, 14%, 12%) and over the first 7 years it increased by an average of 8% per year. The last 5 years the increase has never gone higher than 7% annually and has increased by an average of 4% per year. The cap is growing 1/2 as fast as it used to. I can see no economic outlook that predicts it will increase beyond that amount and in all likelihood will hold steady or decrease.



Let's be optimistic and say it continues to increase at 4% the cap will be 81 million in 3 years. McDavid will still count towrads 15% of the cap. Throw in guys who will still be on their longterm deals at that time Nuge (6.0), Lucic (6.0), Sekera (5.5), Klefbom (4.1), Larsson (4.1), Russell (4.0, LOL), Kassian (1.95), guessing Draisaitl will be about 7.0. That's 51.5 million. On 8 players. You'll have 29.5 million to try and fill 7 forward spots, 2 D spots and a goalie (or under 3 million/player). Good luck in Charelli induced cap hell.

FWIW, 4% increase over 3 years brings it to $84.4, not $81.



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Old 07-10-2017, 11:46 PM   #811
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FWIW, 4% increase over 3 years brings it to $84.4, not $81.



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Nope. I'm including the $75 million cap for '17/18 which has yet to be played. 75 million + 2 more years of 4% equals $81 million for the '19/20 season.
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Old 07-11-2017, 12:15 AM   #812
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Doooooooooooooooooooooom...
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Old 07-11-2017, 03:15 AM   #813
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Double post.

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Old 07-11-2017, 04:58 AM   #814
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Nope. I'm including the $75 million cap for '17/18 which has yet to be played. 75 million + 2 more years of 4% equals $81 million for the '19/20 season.
OK, but you said $81M in 3 years, not 2 years. So I added 3 years.
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Old 07-11-2017, 12:09 PM   #815
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Let's be optimistic and say it continues to increase at 4% the cap will be 81 million in 3 years. McDavid will still count towrads 15% of the cap. Throw in guys who will still be on their longterm deals at that time Nuge (6.0), Lucic (6.0), Sekera (5.5), Klefbom (4.1), Larsson (4.1), Russell (4.0, LOL), Kassian (1.95), guessing Draisaitl will be about 7.0. That's 51.5 million. On 8 players. You'll have 29.5 million to try and fill 7 forward spots, 2 D spots and a goalie (or under 3 million/player). Good luck in Charelli induced cap hell.
I'm guessing your math must be off as having $30M left for 10 players isn't actually that bad. Given the majority of those empty spots in the lineup are bottom 6 forwards, bottom pairing Dmen, and a backup goalie...$3M per player seems rather cushy once you factor in cheap veterans or rookie deals.
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Old 07-15-2017, 07:21 PM   #816
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Are you saying if Edmonton waived McDavid you wouldn't want him on this contract?
Of course you would want him, but at those dollars, it might not be worth it.
You can get two impact players for the same cost. I feel like McDavid was truly worth closer to 10 million.


Would you rather have Monahan and Gaudreau, or just Connor McDavid? The money for the contracts is close.

I rather have Monahan and Gaudreau, as it fills two roster spots on a top line, and pays the same.

My point is, its a lot of cap money spent on one roster player, I think it will prevent Edmonton being able to keep some other of their key pieces as the years go on.

They have bad money with Lucic, Nugget Hopkins and now Russel. (16 million million) They now have 28.5 million tied up between those 4 players, and only 1 of them is any good. This is more money than the entire Calgary Flames backend (Giordono, Hamilton, Hamonic, Brodie, Stone, Bartkowski). Add them all up and its still 3-4 million cheaper.

Add Draisaitl to the mix at 7-9 million (Edmonton over pays for everyone), and the problem grows even more.

I like it.
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:26 PM   #817
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Except the NHL is moving into a star paying league. The PA will push for stars to be paid more (12+ million) and depth to be paid less.
So, let me get this straight.....

Players are going to push for stars to be paid higher, so there is less money to go around for the MAJORITY of players in the league?

Seems legit.
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:33 PM   #818
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So, let me get this straight.....

Players are going to push for stars to be paid higher, so there is less money to go around for the MAJORITY of players in the league?

Seems legit.
It happens every time the PA pushes these guys to sign larger contracts. The pie is only so big.

There has been lots of talk from pundits that the "middle class" in the NHL may start to see their salaries getting squeezed out.
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:38 PM   #819
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So, let me get this straight.....

Players are going to push for stars to be paid higher, so there is less money to go around for the MAJORITY of players in the league?

Seems legit.
What? Of course hes right, you just phrased it confrontationally. They dont want star players to paid more just to screw with the rest of the players.

Star players have to get paid like star players.

Its a Union, not a Kibbutz.

Each player is required to maximize their value (pay) from their employers. Thats going to help some and hurt others.

Its up to the others to know their place, which is a hilariously Capitalist scenario, all things considered.

And we're seeing it now with the lack of insane contracts being thrown out on July 1st. Other than Alzner and Shattenkirk (who, by the way, should have a picture on his jersey of Captain Kirk looking forlornly at a toilet as he flushes it) deals.

Should players take less for a chance to win? Maybe. If you can roll it into NTC/NMC or something else that provides mutual value. But overall? No.

McDavid left some cash on the table, but in fairness, not much.

And again, I must be thinking I'm insane on this because his ELC runs another year, so either the Edmonton Brass think hes going to have a monster year next year and wanted to lock him in now or they're nuts, but if they have that feeling then why doesnt McDavid's camp? Why arent they saying:

"Hes going to have a monster year next year lets wait until next year to lock him in!"

$100M. Thats why.
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Old 07-17-2017, 01:44 PM   #820
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I think the reason for the start salaries to star rising more quickly then before is due to elimination of super long term back diving contracts.

Crosby and Ovechkin set an artificially low cap benchmark by signing for 12 years each.

I think the fact that agents couldn't ask for more money than Crosby and Ovechkin for their clients, kept the high end of salaries beaten down for awhile.

Ovechkin signed his deal in 2008 and it took until 2014 for someone to move past him.

Now that "regular" elite guys have pushed past $10 million per season I think we will see more and more of these contracts happening.
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