Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by GGG

Me too, I’m not smarter then the market.

Me three. Chasing pennies is a losing proposition as is investing in the renewable transition.

[opendoor]

Just to update the TSLA stock talk from a couple of months ago, it's now trading at $190, up about 85% from its bottom. If anyone is confident that it's way overpriced, they could make some pretty good money with some long-dated options.

Even though I totally disagree with the idea that it's a $30-40 stock, I'm actually kind of tempted. A $100 June 2024 put would return about 100-150% if it dropped back to ~$100 (where it was a month ago) within the next year and 300-400% if it hit $70.

I probably won't, because I still think their margins are too high and the competition too weak right now for it to totally crash like that. But it's still a pretty decent bet.

[bluejays]

I never fully understood TSLA, with regards to scaling I never understood how they could break even as it’s a hard market to break in. Now with other companies jumping all in, it’s going to be a tough proposition. Certainly they have a lot of advantages over others, but it won’t be too long that others will wave their heavy hands. Stock may go up, and it may go down but they’re a real gamble where the odds are stacked against them.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

OK, bought some Amazon today at $86.20. It's back down to pre-pandemic price range so figured it's probably nearing a floor for now. See if it bounces a bit. Please don't consider this buying advice!

Just sold this for a ~40% gain. I never put enough money into these ones!

[zamler]

If you bought any of these 10 years ago congrats. I first bought AMD in 2002 (!) back then I was convinced Opteron was the next thing.

[Fuzz]

Could have used that chart 10 years ago...

[cral12]

Anyone into junior mining stocks? Have a family member who inherited some of these type stocks and I'm at a loss as to know how to advise...

Examples of a few:
- KRR.TO (Karora)
- FT.TO (Fortune Minerals)
- ESK.V (Eskay)
- LAB.V (Labrador Gold)
- DSV.TO (Discovery)
- SIC.V (Sokoman)

Any thoughts/insights welcomed.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by cral12

Anyone into junior mining stocks? Have a family member who inherited some of these type stocks and I'm at a loss as to know how to advise...

Examples of a few:
- KRR.TO (Karora)
- FT.TO (Fortune Minerals)
- ESK.V (Eskay)
- LAB.V (Labrador Gold)
- DSV.TO (Discovery)
- SIC.V (Sokoman)

Any thoughts/insights welcomed.

This might be a good start

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by cral12

Anyone into junior mining stocks? Have a family member who inherited some of these type stocks and I'm at a loss as to know how to advise...

Examples of a few:
- KRR.TO (Karora)
- FT.TO (Fortune Minerals)
- ESK.V (Eskay)
- LAB.V (Labrador Gold)
- DSV.TO (Discovery)
- SIC.V (Sokoman)

Any thoughts/insights welcomed.

I would advise not giving advice on the matter.

There's only two possibilities - either they all suck or maybe one or more goes to the moon. It isn't predictable in advance which will be the case, and you get blamed if your advice is bad with the benefit of hindsight.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Could have used that chart 10 years ago...

Like you would listen. You'd come up with bunch of childish quips just like you do now and refuse to see opportunity. You recently bought Amazon and pulled a 40%, could have done 100%+ but noooooooo that company offends you. It's ####ing funny honestly.

[cral12]

Originally Posted by nik-

This might be a good start

yah seems about as close to gambling as one could get...promising reports out of some of these companies, but looks like bit of a crap shoot and may require plenty of patience and intestinal fortitude

[cral12]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I would advise not giving advice on the matter.

There's only two possibilities - either they all suck or maybe one or more goes to the moon. It isn't predictable in advance which will be the case, and you get blamed if your advice is bad with the benefit of hindsight.

Should clarify that this wouldn't turn into a "blame game"; just a close relative who's at a loss on how to proceed with these - they'll be getting some professional advice...

[bizaro86]

In that case I would sell them all, with the caveat that just like lottery tickets one could hit.

Depending how big the positions are it might make sense to layer out of them over time (ie, a market order isn't the way to go here, and even big limit orders will get traded around by others to your disadvantage). Volume will be bigger when there is news.

[Bonded]

I am going to do some crazy long-term investing.

I have about 50k of cash that I am going to throw into either https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=357281 or https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/vie...?f=10&t=274390. Haven't decided if I am going to lump sum it or layer it on over the tail of the year.
Just need to decide if I want to put in my taxable or sheltered accounts. If I get wiped on the 50k it won't kill me lol

[opendoor]

How are you introducing the leverage to make that work? If it's through margin, isn't that a bigger risk than just losing your $50K? In a large downturn, couldn't you end up underwater while still having to pay interest on the borrowed amount?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by opendoor

How are you introducing the leverage to make that work? If it's through margin, isn't that a bigger risk than just losing your $50K? In a large downturn, couldn't you end up underwater while still having to pay interest on the borrowed amount?

No margin. The underlying ETFs are designed to replicate the daily move of QQQ and SPY by 2 to 3 times. It is a super risky investment strategy though. You are dealing with decay from the instruments themselves and a bet that this current interest rate cycle will end and an inverse correlation between bonds and stocks returns.

I have enough long term money in traditional asset mixes that I can risk a bit. I personally hate picking single stocks for long term performance though and this is the kind of risk I am attracted to. Definitely could be a big old loser.

[opendoor]

So just the normal HFEA then? Unless I'm missing something (I just quickly looked at them), those two you linked look like they use margin or futures for leverage, rather than leveraged ETFs. Likely because it's cheaper and it avoids the drag that can happen with 3x ETFs (but it's also more time consuming and probably riskier).

Though if it's a long-term swing for the fences kind of thing and it only makes up a portion of your investments, I'd probably dial back the treasury portion from the 40-45% in HFEA.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by opendoor

So just the normal HFEA then? Unless I'm missing something (I just quickly looked at them), those two you linked look like they use margin or futures for leverage, rather than leveraged ETFs. Likely because it's cheaper and it avoids the drag that can happen with 3x ETFs (but it's also more time consuming and probably riskier).

Though if it's a long-term swing for the fences kind of thing and it only makes up a portion of your investments, I'd probably dial back the treasury portion from the 40-45% in HFEA.

Yeah. Not at my comp but didn’t mean to link the life cycle one. Box spreads will blow people up. I meant to link the second HFEA portfolio and the the ‘modified’ one. There are some different leveraged etfs in sprawled through those pages that make up different risk profiles.
The modified one is interesting if you have the cash or want to access margin but I’m not there today.

[bluejays]

Half stock, half other topic question, but with Apple set to introduce their AR headset next week, what are people's thoughts? I bought in a few thousand dollars at $153. I think we're ushering in a new era way bigger than the iPhone. From staycations to other things, I think AR will be a gamechanger in the years to come. So for that I think Apple is a winner here.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Yeah. Not at my comp but didn’t mean to link the life cycle one. Box spreads will blow people up. I meant to link the second HFEA portfolio and the the ‘modified’ one. There are some different leveraged etfs in sprawled through those pages that make up different risk profiles.
The modified one is interesting if you have the cash or want to access margin but I’m not there today.

Just watch out for the volatility drag on leveraged ETFs, as that can tank returns if you buy at the wrong time. In consistently upward markets, the returns can be phenomenal. But in choppy ones, they tend to underperform because they're targeting 3x performance on any given day, and not longer periods.

So for instance, if the S&P drops 3% in a day and then goes up 3.1% the next day, it's flat. But with a 3x leveraged fund tracking daily movements, that ETF would be a 9% drop and a 9.3% increase, which results in a -0.54% return.

Over the long term in the right conditions, that can eat away at returns. You can see that effect over the last 3.5 years or so, where the S&P is up about 34% over its pre-COVID high. You'd expect a 3x fund to basically be up 100% in the time period, but UPRO and SPXL (both 3x S&P 500 ETFs) are only up about 22% because of how choppy the markets have been. That's one of the reasons people might try to get leverage in a different way.

Of course, the reverse is true when the markets are on fire, and the returns will tend to be better than 3x the underlying index, so if you buy at the right time the returns can be insane. $50K invested into TQQQ at the end of 2011 would have been worth nearly $6M 10 years later.