The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

How likely is that this late though?

The only teams that have a) the cap space and b) the situation (chance to win) are teams with their own RFA problems.

Even a team like Colorado with cap space is saving said cap space because of McKinnon and others as per Sakic.

Tkachuk is the kind of player that if you can sign him to a fair deal, makes a huge difference to your team winning. A whole bunch of teams would make the effort necessary to acquire him IMO.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It’s not plugging your ears. It’s agreeing to parameters of a negotiation. If the Flames a knowledge they are unable to pay Tkachuk his market value, they run a high risk of losing him.

That’s why I am saying a reasonable compromise is close to market value for 1 or 2 years, then paying him when they can.

They can’t just lose Tkachuk without Tkachuk losing something himself

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

True. To a point. But Tkachuk and his agent still communicate.

Johnny, I believe, at some point told his agent to make something happen. And he got a deal done in time for the season start.

Tkachuk’s agent must ask Tkachuk what hill he wants to die on, if he is willing to miss some time, or even a whole season. He also should be sharing the Flames negotiating position.

I have negotiated and have had people negotiating on my behalf. The negotiator needs to articulate to their client the consequence of sticking with a position, and the consequences of exploring other options. Not just stubbornly sticking to a position.

There are consequences to either side. And if the Flames tell Tkachuk his only option is to sign a 1 year under market deal or miss a year, the consequences to the Flames organization will be extremely negative, either in the short run or the long run.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

There are consequences to either side. And if the Flames tell Tkachuk his only option is to sign a 1 year under market deal or miss a year, the consequences to the Flames organization will be extremely negative, either in the short run or the long run.

Not if his next contract makes him happy.

And you know very well it’s not a statement made in a vacuum. Negotiations have context.

1 year at close to market is an olive branch if they can’t meet term and dollar numbers now

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Tkachuk is the kind of player that if you can sign him to a fair deal, makes a huge difference to your team winning. A whole bunch of teams would make the effort necessary to acquire him IMO.

But what's the list really?

Take 30 teams and subtract teams he wouldn't go to, then subtract teams that have internal budgets, then subtract teams that have no cap space, then maybe subtract teams with their own RFAs to sign.

The list gets pretty small.

Plus the Flames would match almost anything under $10M and just sort their own cap space out as you say other teams would.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Not if his next contract makes him happy.

And you know very well it’s not a statement made in a vacuum. Negotiations have context.

1 year at close to market is an olive branch if they can’t meet term and dollar numbers now

I have said all along, the negotiation is all about establishing market value and agreeing to term. I don’t expect Tkachuk to take under market value. The Flames have every right to only offer a short term contract which carries risk for both sides.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I have said all along, the negotiation is all about establishing market value and agreeing to term. I don’t expect Tkachuk to take under market value. The Flames have every right to only offer a short term contract which carries risk for both sides.

Sure. And a short term bridge deal that ends when the Flames still have him as a RFA mitigates their risk.

If Tkachuk wants long term, very lucrative financial security, he may have to decide if if is worth waiting for.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But what's the list really?

Take 30 teams and subtract teams he wouldn't go to, then subtract teams that have internal budgets, then subtract teams that have no cap space, then maybe subtract teams with their own RFAs to sign.

The list gets pretty small.

Plus the Flames would match almost anything under $10M and just sort their own cap space out as you say other teams would.

Your last paragraph upsets the whole premise of the debate. That the Flames are unable to offer him market value. DM’s whole point is that Tkachuk should accept a 1 year deal at below market because that is all Flames can afford. If they can match anything up to $10 million, then that’s not really true is it?

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I have said all along, the negotiation is all about establishing market value and agreeing to term. I don’t expect Tkachuk to take under market value. The Flames have every right to only offer a short term contract which carries risk for both sides.

I juts hate the attitude some people here are calling players like Tkachuk greedy and to quote - "smarten up these entitled money hungry millenials "

why is it greedy entitlement to want what was has become market value for your skills?

in the vast majority of cases, players should never intentionally sign for a discount. why give someone else your deserved piece of the pie?
someone else can give a discount. let the GM hardball some 4th liners and 7th defensemen instead.
it's a business and the team won't have any loyalty to you down the road.

kind of sucks, but that's what the game is now.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Your last paragraph upsets the whole premise of the debate. That the Flames are unable to offer him market value. DM’s whole point is that Tkachuk should accept a 1 year deal at below market because that is all Flames can afford. If they can match anything up to $10 million, then that’s not really true is it?

That is a fair way to look at it.

The way I look at it, the offer sheet scenario is
1) unlikely due to several factors, eliminating teams and GMs that can’t or wouldn’t use it, how late it is, etc
2) a really ugly way for Tkachuk to force terms

If he was to do this, then the Flames either have to try to make room, or if they simply can’t, they fold their tents, say goodbye to Tkachuk and take the compensation.

The Flames are arguably technically quite vulnerable, but for practical purposes Tkachuk would have to find that other team / GM that wants to really put the screws to Tre, as well as being somewhere he really would rather play.

Pretty big move if the alternative is taking 1-2 million less in year 1 knowing you can negotiate to get paid next year.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Your last paragraph upsets the whole premise of the debate. That the Flames are unable to offer him market value. DM’s whole point is that Tkachuk should accept a 1 year deal at below market because that is all Flames can afford. If they can match anything up to $10 million, then that’s not really true is it?

Says you.

I was discussing the likelihood of an offer sheet, and nothing more.

You can't say other teams would want to have him and would make the moves necessary but then say the Flames wouldn't or couldn't do the same, can you?

[transplant99]

Why would Tkachuk sign a 1 year deal when there is a possibility he could suffer a catastrophic injury that would see him earning zero dollars past the 1 season he is signed for?

He is just doing/using all the tools available to him in order to secure his future. Nothing wrong at all with that. A 1 year deal is far to big a risk for him to take and the team assumes zero risk in that scenario.

I dont see any way that when this deal gets done it isnt at least 3 years, likely 5 and possibly six in length. There is just way to much risk to one side or the other for any other term.

1 or 2 years all the risk is on him

4 years and he walks right into UFA and the team is screwed

7 or 8 years and he probably loses an even bigger payday than he is facing now.

Its the new way in the NHL for high end RFA's.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Why would Tkachuk sign a 1 year deal when there is a possibility he could suffer a catastrophic injury that would see him earning zero dollars past the 1 season he is signed for?

He is just doing/using all the tools available to him in order to secure his future. Nothing wrong at all with that. A 1 year deal is far to big a risk for him to take and the team assumes zero risk in that scenario.

I dont see any way that when this deal gets done it isnt at least 3 years, likely 5 and possibly six in length. There is just way to much risk to one side or the other for any other term.

1 or 2 years all the risk is on him

4 years and he walks right into UFA and the team is screwed

7 or 8 years and he probably loses an even bigger payday than he is facing now.

Its the new way in the NHL for high end RFA's.

I agree that there is some small degree of risk to a really short term.

If the risk is injury, then the player probably wants at least 2 years over 1, as the recovery time for most serious but non career threatening injuries is on the order of months, so an injury in year 1 does not leave them injured and out of a contract

I don’t really expect that there is a very high probability of catastrophic/career ending injury.

I mean, how many players under 25 have actually had catastrophic career ending injuries in the past 10 years.

[Bingo]

Not sure I'm on board with it fully ... but I've heard the theory that a NHL player would accept a one year deal and the risk since he wouldn't sit the year out anyway.

If Tkachuk was offered a 1 yr deal only by Calgary, and let's assume no offer sheets were coming, then he'd likely sign with Bern or something for a year and play for considerably less money than what Calgary would have offered him.

Can still put your skate in a rut in Switzerland.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I agree that there is some small degree of risk to a really short term.

If the risk is injury, then the player probably wants at least 2 years over 1, as the recovery time for most serious but non career threatening injuries is on the order of months, so an injury in year 1 does not leave them injured and out of a contract

I don’t really expect that there is a very high probability of catastrophic/career ending injury.

I mean, how many players under 25 have actually had catastrophic career ending injuries in the past 10 years.

No idea.

That doesnt remove the possibility though, and its why he would be very unlikely to go any short term deal. No matter how small that possibility is, if it did happen he would be screwing himself out of well over 50 million dollars. Just to big a risk IMO and i have no doubt that is exactly what his agent and father are advising him as well. Rightfully so I would say. Just way to much on the line for that to happen.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Says you.

I was discussing the likelihood of an offer sheet, and nothing more.

You can't say other teams would want to have him and would make the moves necessary but then say the Flames wouldn't or couldn't do the same, can you?

It's easier for other teams to make moves to open themselves up for an offersheet than it is for the Flames to sign Tkachuk to a contract that puts them over the cap only to then negotiate cap relief from another team.

Why do calgary any favours at that point? Why not ask for 2 first round picks for 2 million in cap relief? What's tre going to do, say no and start the season over the cap threshold?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Says you.

I was discussing the likelihood of an offer sheet, and nothing more.

You can't say other teams would want to have him and would make the moves necessary but then say the Flames wouldn't or couldn't do the same, can you?

Says me? I don’t even understand what that means. I don’t agree that the Flames can negotiate off the basis that they can’t afford him. Again if they truly could only afford to pay him below $7 million in a 1 year deal, then yes they run the high risk of losing him to an offer sheet. But as you pointed out, this isn’t true.

The negotiation comes down to what the Flames are willing to pay him, and what they are willing to do to clear the cap room necessary.

And if they have painted themselves into a corner because the moves available to clear the space are no longer there, well that’s on the GM. If they were to take that position during negotiations at this point, that wouldn’t be a team I’d want to play for.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by transplant99

No idea.

That doesnt remove the possibility though, and its why he would be very unlikely to go any short term deal. No matter how small that possibility is, if it did happen he would be screwing himself out of well over 50 million dollars. Just to big a risk IMO and i have no doubt that is exactly what his agent and father are advising him as well. Rightfully so I would say. Just way to much on the line for that to happen.

Well, nobody is going to get hurt if they prefer to sit out.

Unless they go golfing Erik Johnson style

[Strange Brew]

A catastrophic injury that ends your career is not the only way to erode your market value in a 1 year deal.

[Flash Walken]

I mean, who cares what Tkachuk does if he holds out.

What I care about is do the Flames even make the playoffs without him?

Do you sacrifice a season in your winning window to send a message to Tkachuk or to avoid having to eat a pick to move Frolik?

Seems downright idiotic.