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Old 01-26-2021, 03:45 PM   #741
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the...ine-data-soon/

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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-N) on Tuesday said it expected to report eagerly-awaited data on its COVID-19 vaccine early next week, and that it would be able to meet the delivery target for doses to countries with which it had signed supply agreements.

This will speed the timelines up a bit
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Old 01-26-2021, 03:45 PM   #742
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Timelines -

It took 8 months to build the EU Moderna line. In 8 months will there be demand for the Pfizer product that is the most difficult to store. And what is the number of doses that new production line needs to produce to break even.

J+J is producing 1 billion in 2021
AZ is 3 billion /2 = 1.5 billion
Moderna = 1 billion/2 = .5 billion
Pfizer = 2 billion = 1 billion
Total = 4 billion vaccinations for 7.5 billion people at 80% adults and 80% vaccination rate = 4.8 billion needing vaccinating in 2021.

So while we need Vaccines now I don’t see the business case to create 1 billion vaccines per year capacity 8 months from now. If it takes less time to retrofit then to build from scratch and you could produce 1 billion vaccines from April onward you probably have a market.
It definitely takes less time to retool than it does to to build from scratch. As far as I know, the lines that Lonza built for producing Moderna in Switzerland were the latter, as in they purchased new machinery and either built or retrofitted the buildings the lines are in. So that's why it took so long. If you're just retooling an existing facility, it doesn't have to take nearly that long. BioNTech purchased an existing facility in Germany in late 2020 and was able to retool it and it should be producing significant doses within a couple of weeks.


So if a 3-4 month turnaround from purchase to producing doses is possible, that process should have been started (at the latest) in the fall when it was becoming clear which candidates were most likely the get to the finish line first. I mean, even if no one did anything until the Phase 3 results came in, it still would've been possible to have significant doses being produced by the spring. I don't necessarily blame the companies themselves for not doing it, but there clearly should have been an overriding goal by governments and businesses to get as many doses produced as fast as possible, even if it meant pouring money down the drain to do it. The economic costs of the pandemic continuing months longer than it needs to dwarf what would've been spent on building capacity.
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Old 01-26-2021, 06:06 PM   #743
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Looking at the situation with the EU and the vaccine exports, I am reasonably confident we are going to get a nice screw job here coming quick. The EU doesn't put out statements to the effect of "Hey, we helped pay for the development of these vaccines, we have ordered them and we are done fooling around with delivery delays" If there aren't active discussions that are happening about doing that RIGHT NOW

I would be shocked if we don't see a significant reduction in deliveries here quick and for a while. The political pressure by the EU will outstrip any complaints from Canada and some garbage contract that was signed. The EU is the largest economy in the world I believe, if not, 2nd. 500+ million people and some of the most powerful people in the world reside there. They aren't going to just roll over and get stiffed when it's time for them to get jabbed.

We also have a situation that was reported on CBC Power and Politics on the vaccine production in Canada. The Calgary based company's CEO was on and pretty much said that them and other vaccine producers in Canada have pretty much heard crickets from the officials in Ottawa about this. He would be "stunned" if he didn't get some calls next week.

On top of all this, we have leaked "Breaking News"!!!! Regarding the Governor General and her abuse allegations that now includes potential physical touching or harm. This wasn't leaked by any low level employee or somebody at Rideau Hall. This is coming from the PMO to try and get some headlines off the narrative of this vaccine nightmare.

I have zero doubt in my mind that we are going to get some bad news regarding all of this very soon. All the interviews with all the government officials are the same talking point and that is that we have the best portfolio of vaccines and that everybody who want's one can get it by September. We have so many doses that we can vaccinate everybody in Canada and than many many more if you want!!

Like it it not, this is actually turning into a nightmare for the government and for Canadian's
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Old 01-26-2021, 06:34 PM   #744
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Apologies if this has been discussed already but I hadn't heard of it before. My brother mentioned a Canadian "plant based vaccine" and I almost wrote it off as it sounded silly but after burning through a few articles, I find it absolutely fascinating.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7561871/m...ccine-tobacco/

Obviously a bit late to the party but that part that may allow it to make up for lost time:



Hopefully it's not all hype and winds up being an effective vaccine.
As a person that has a massive allergy to eggs, with a simple flu shot sending me to intensive care I would gladly welcome this.

I am almost certain the current Covid vaccines will put me in the hospital.

The cure could kill me while the disease may never affect me.

I am not an anti vaxxer, I would line up for that vaccine.
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Old 01-26-2021, 08:05 PM   #745
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Looking at the situation with the EU and the vaccine exports, I am reasonably confident we are going to get a nice screw job here coming quick. The EU doesn't put out statements to the effect of "Hey, we helped pay for the development of these vaccines, we have ordered them and we are done fooling around with delivery delays" If there aren't active discussions that are happening about doing that RIGHT NOW

I would be shocked if we don't see a significant reduction in deliveries here quick and for a while. The political pressure by the EU will outstrip any complaints from Canada and some garbage contract that was signed. The EU is the largest economy in the world I believe, if not, 2nd. 500+ million people and some of the most powerful people in the world reside there. They aren't going to just roll over and get stiffed when it's time for them to get jabbed.

We also have a situation that was reported on CBC Power and Politics on the vaccine production in Canada. The Calgary based company's CEO was on and pretty much said that them and other vaccine producers in Canada have pretty much heard crickets from the officials in Ottawa about this. He would be "stunned" if he didn't get some calls next week.

On top of all this, we have leaked "Breaking News"!!!! Regarding the Governor General and her abuse allegations that now includes potential physical touching or harm. This wasn't leaked by any low level employee or somebody at Rideau Hall. This is coming from the PMO to try and get some headlines off the narrative of this vaccine nightmare.

I have zero doubt in my mind that we are going to get some bad news regarding all of this very soon. All the interviews with all the government officials are the same talking point and that is that we have the best portfolio of vaccines and that everybody who want's one can get it by September. We have so many doses that we can vaccinate everybody in Canada and than many many more if you want!!

Like it it not, this is actually turning into a nightmare for the government and for Canadian's
A nightmare? This could be a bad situation in the short term, sure, but I don’t see how it puts a big dent in our medium and long-term benchmarks.

You mock Canada’s promise of getting vaccinated by September. Do you have any clue which companies and how many doses this would actually impact, and for how long?

It’s a long road ahead yet. #### is going to go off the rails here and there. The current plan has enough buffer that we should be just fine.
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Old 01-26-2021, 08:21 PM   #746
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As a person that has a massive allergy to eggs, with a simple flu shot sending me to intensive care I would gladly welcome this.

I am almost certain the current Covid vaccines will put me in the hospital.

The cure could kill me while the disease may never affect me.

I am not an anti vaxxer, I would line up for that vaccine.
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccine don't use egg proteins, as far as I know. Look into it, but you will probably be fine with those.
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Old 01-27-2021, 04:56 AM   #747
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A nightmare? This could be a bad situation in the short term, sure, but I don’t see how it puts a big dent in our medium and long-term benchmarks.

You mock Canada’s promise of getting vaccinated by September. Do you have any clue which companies and how many doses this would actually impact, and for how long?

It’s a long road ahead yet. #### is going to go off the rails here and there. The current plan has enough buffer that we should be just fine.

Well I may be wrong but the way I look at this situation is this, Canada is almost out of vaccines at the moment and whatever surplus we have, could be used up within hours across the country.

If the EU does put restrictions that last for any meaningful amount of time on the Pfizer, Moderna and even EU facilities of AstraZeneca vaccines, I just don' see how Canada can hit its short, medium or long term goals?? You need the product to actually vaccinate.

Perhaps there isn't an outright ban but a significant reduction in deliveries for 3 months or more, how hard do you have to work to keep up and chip away at the backlog?

It's not so much that I am mocking Canada's response about getting everybody done by the fall, a whole host of countries have similar time frames. It's just becoming clearer and clearer by the day our biggest issue will be getting deliveries because of a lack of domestic production and control. The UK, EU and the USA can at least solve a part of their problems by limiting exports. We don't have that ability.

A backup plan is going to probably need to be hashed out and fast. Talking points about having the best portfolio and hundreds of millions of doses won't help. Vaccines aren't the key out of this, it's vaccinations that will be.

Seeing the PMO leaks of this GG scandal lead me to believe they are also seeing significant problems ahead, trying to change the story a little here and there and figure out a game plan. In the CBC interview the Calgary based CEO of the pharma company said he would be "shocked" if he didn't get a call next week to discuss things. I doubt the call will be about Flames hockey or Keystone XL
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Old 01-27-2021, 10:37 AM   #748
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With next to no production capability in Canada, I can only imagine how screwed we would be if this virus had been more deadly.
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Old 01-27-2021, 10:44 AM   #749
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Well I may be wrong but the way I look at this situation is this, Canada is almost out of vaccines at the moment and whatever surplus we have, could be used up within hours across the country.

If the EU does put restrictions that last for any meaningful amount of time on the Pfizer, Moderna and even EU facilities of AstraZeneca vaccines, I just don' see how Canada can hit its short, medium or long term goals?? You need the product to actually vaccinate.

Perhaps there isn't an outright ban but a significant reduction in deliveries for 3 months or more, how hard do you have to work to keep up and chip away at the backlog?

It's not so much that I am mocking Canada's response about getting everybody done by the fall, a whole host of countries have similar time frames. It's just becoming clearer and clearer by the day our biggest issue will be getting deliveries because of a lack of domestic production and control. The UK, EU and the USA can at least solve a part of their problems by limiting exports. We don't have that ability.

A backup plan is going to probably need to be hashed out and fast. Talking points about having the best portfolio and hundreds of millions of doses won't help. Vaccines aren't the key out of this, it's vaccinations that will be.

Seeing the PMO leaks of this GG scandal lead me to believe they are also seeing significant problems ahead, trying to change the story a little here and there and figure out a game plan. In the CBC interview the Calgary based CEO of the pharma company said he would be "shocked" if he didn't get a call next week to discuss things. I doubt the call will be about Flames hockey or Keystone XL
Pfizer is the only one that would impact in the short term, Moderna is not producing in the EU and our Astrazeneca supply is sourced from the UK plant. Of course, restricting the AZ EU supply could put pressure on the UK supply. The rest of out portfolio is varied in terms of where it's coming from, but it's a mistake to believe everything comes from the EU or would be impacted by the EU ban.

Outside of the above, here's what you're missing:
- The ban is a reaction to shortages in the short term from Pfizer and AZ, both are expected to be able to ramp up production and hit their targets
- The amount of vaccine being supplied over the next couple of months is much, much smaller than the amount being supplied over the following period up until September, this is true with both current approved and expected approved
- Our vaccination portfolio is much wider than Pfizer and AZ, and includes vaccines that are easier to store and easier to distribute (Johnson & Johnson, for example).
- The EU could halt all Pfizer vaccines until they are 100% covered from Pfizer alone, and there would still be 1.5b vaccines available in 2021 (from Pfizer alone).

Again, this is not a nightmare, it's a short term problem. The vaccine rollout is not and has never been a "set it and forget it" approach. It was simply based on the information and our situation in the moment. Canadian production, different plants, different vaccine candidates will always be in the mix.

Just because we need a backup plan to deal with Pfizer short-term shortages (not to mention that we likely already have one and were probably aware of this risk from the beginning) does not mean our portfolio is any less strong, or that this EU issue does away with or invalidates all the hard work thus far.

You're basically overestimating and misrepresenting the impact of the EU, and underestimating literally everything else. There's no reason to buy into fear mongering, it's bad for you dude.
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Old 01-27-2021, 11:21 AM   #750
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You're basically overestimating and misrepresenting the impact of the EU, and underestimating literally everything else.
No he isn't:

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...b67848ee7d15d8

(and that's from a very left-leaning publication who is generally friendly to the Liberals)

Canada's lack of foresight and leadership may be extremely costly if this forecast is accurate. 6 months is a very long time in this sort of environment.
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Old 01-27-2021, 11:34 AM   #751
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First of all, I don't think vaccines or even Covid is a political issue. It's not like one side is out performing the other in any aspect of Covid, no matter which side you fall on. This was one mistake from Covid, everything becoming political. I do believe though that we need to hold the powers at be accountable for their mistakes, but that's the same situation globally.

As for me, I wouldn't say I am buying into fear mongering or anything. I am in my 30's and healthy so I am considered into the low risk category and couldn't get a vaccine in most countries for the foreseeable future.

Where I think you may be discounting the general concerns is the pressure on the healthcare system across the globe and the lockdowns/ business restrictions. With the new variants spreading quickly and most likely more lethal, the urgency has gone up. The pressure is building.

This isn't a normal product development or a companies financial performance. Sure we can say that Q1, Q2 might be rocky but we are hoping for a strong 2nd half of 2021 and accelerating growth into 2022. We are talking about trillions in losses, hundreds of thousands of deaths before the year is over and other negative effects.

The vaccines will get to Canada when they do, myself and yourself don't have any control over that. I think I am just tired of being fed garbage when it's becoming clear that we have a significant problem. Conversations I have had with friends and family with similar views as yourself, it's almost as we should look at vaccine shipment delays in the same conversation as a pizza a delivery delay. "It will get here when it get's here and it will taste great!"
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Old 01-27-2021, 12:03 PM   #752
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Timelines -

It took 8 months to build the EU Moderna line. In 8 months will there be demand for the Pfizer product that is the most difficult to store. And what is the number of doses that new production line needs to produce to break even.

J+J is producing 1 billion in 2021
AZ is 3 billion /2 = 1.5 billion
Moderna = 1 billion/2 = .5 billion
Pfizer = 2 billion = 1 billion
Total = 4 billion vaccinations for 7.5 billion people at 80% adults and 80% vaccination rate = 4.8 billion needing vaccinating in 2021.

So while we need Vaccines now I don’t see the business case to create 1 billion vaccines per year capacity 8 months from now. If it takes less time to retrofit then to build from scratch and you could produce 1 billion vaccines from April onward you probably have a market.
Is J+J a single dose? I might have missed that in the discussion.
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Old 01-27-2021, 12:08 PM   #753
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No he isn't:

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...b67848ee7d15d8

(and that's from a very left-leaning publication who is generally friendly to the Liberals)

Canada's lack of foresight and leadership may be extremely costly if this forecast is accurate. 6 months is a very long time in this sort of environment.
For one, this has nothing to do with the left or the right.

Two, if you read the actual report by the EIU, it appears HuffPo is basing their assumption off of the map, which is fairly generalized and loose in it's categorizations (for example, US, UK, and EU are dark green hitting the exact same timeline, while all of the other developed countries are light green, hitting the same timeline, and so on and so forth). It's unlikely that Canada and Russia, for example, are going to hit the exact same timeline, given other factors at play.

And the report does mention other factors:
Quote:
Of the 12.5bn doses that the main vaccine producers have so far pledged to produce in 2021, 6.4bn have already been pre-ordered, most of them by wealthy countries. Canada, for instance, has secured supplies equivalent to five times its population. Israel is reported to have paid far more than other countries to secure doses of the Pfizer vaccine. This is simply not an option for poorer countries.
And if you look at the timeline, Canada, which they've included in "wealthy countries," is where it is expected to be:
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Countries at the front of the queue—including the UK, the US and most countries in the EU—are expected to have immunised their priority groups (including the elderly, people with underlying health conditions and healthcare workers) by end-March, with other wealthy countries catching up by end-June.
This is consistent with BC's recently released phases approach, for example.

Another factor, which will play a part everywhere, is the willingness to get the vaccine:
Quote:
Vaccine hesitancy could have a significant impact on the rollout of vaccines in some developed countries. In France and Japan, recent polling data show that around half the population does not wish to get the vaccine, although this may change if the rollout proceeds without significant issues.
The map is a pretty broad generalization, but it's referring to widespread coverage. Canada's timeline suggests only that all those who wish to be vaccinated will be able to be vaccinated by the end of September. It will go on past that accounting for people who are waiting, don't want it, children, etc. but we will have the amount of vaccines required to cover. If anything, the report suggests Canada's buying up of so many vaccines is a contributor to the delays that will be experienced by lesser developed countries.

As with anything, you're better off reading the actual report than what looks to be a hamfisted summary of a generalized map.
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Old 01-27-2021, 12:11 PM   #754
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No he isn't:

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...b67848ee7d15d8

(and that's from a very left-leaning publication who is generally friendly to the Liberals)

Canada's lack of foresight and leadership may be extremely costly if this forecast is accurate. 6 months is a very long time in this sort of environment.
The report they reference is a joke and they've been ridiculously wrong in their predictions so far. A month ago they were saying the US wouldn't have widespread vaccine access until late 2021/early 2022:

https://www.eiu.com/n/rich-countries...r-than-others/

So a month ago, they were off by 8-12 months in their prediction for the US. And for some reason in all of their reports they have Norway being 6 months behind the rest of Europe, even though they are part of the EU's vaccination purchase agreement and will get their doses as fast as other countries. And their latest report (just published today) still has Israel waiting until late 2021/early 2022 to vaccinate 60-70% of their adult population, which should give you an idea of its accuracy.

Barring worldwide vaccine production grinding to a halt, there is no plausible scenario where Canada is waiting until mid-2022 to vaccinate everyone. Nor is there a plausible scenario where Canada is 6 months behind Europe.
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Old 01-27-2021, 12:21 PM   #755
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No he isn't:

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/...b67848ee7d15d8

(and that's from a very left-leaning publication who is generally friendly to the Liberals)

Canada's lack of foresight and leadership may be extremely costly if this forecast is accurate. 6 months is a very long time in this sort of environment.
Clearly this is infuriating and also, something we should have seen coming. What a ####ing disaster.
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Old 01-27-2021, 12:26 PM   #756
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.the...ine-data-soon/




This will speed the timelines up a bit
This is truly our last and only hope as a country to get mass immunizations started by the summer.
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Old 01-27-2021, 12:39 PM   #757
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This is truly our last and only hope as a country to get mass immunizations started by the summer.
That's a weird way to look at it. I mean, either you believe companies are going to meet their contractual obligations and delivery targets or you don't. If they do, Canada will likely have enough doses for about 55-60% of the adult population by the end of June. On the other hand, if you think Canada's contracts and delivery targets are meaningless (which you'd basically have to in order to say the above), then why would you hold out any hope for Johnson & Johnson? Canada's position with them is exactly the same as it is with Pfizer and Moderna (signed on very early, but all doses are produced abroad).
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Old 01-27-2021, 01:16 PM   #758
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https://thestarphoenix.com/news/sask...n-coming-weeks

Some optimism from Sask.
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Old 01-27-2021, 01:40 PM   #759
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After succeeding in doing so in the US and the EU, Pfizer is now pressuring Health Canada to relabel the vials to contain 6 doses rather than 5. This would allow them to deliver fewer vials while still meeting the dose numbers in the contract.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...vaccine-label/

The problem is, you normally need a special syringe to extract 6 doses. It sounds like Canada has almost enough of those syringes to cover Pfizer's doses (they apparently have 37.5M of those), but ensuring that they end up in the right places in the exact right amount for Pfizer doses (and don't get used for any other vaccines) might be a bit of a logistical nightmare. It's probably inevitable that it gets relabeled to 6 doses though.
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Old 01-27-2021, 01:44 PM   #760
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This is truly our last and only hope as a country to get mass immunizations started by the summer.
I would argue this is our hope for being in really good shape for the beginning of summer
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