Electric vehicle war, is gas soon to be toast?

[Swift]

This hasn't been mentioned in this thread (unless there's another EV thread?) but a 5 minute charge battery has been developed - https://www.theguardian.com/environm...charging-times

Additionally electric cars are now past the tipping point in Norway and are expected to pass that point globally in the next 2-4 years - https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-mass-adoption

I'm no expert on any of this, but I enjoy the discussion on it. I was in Oslo in 2019 and it was astounding to see so many EV cars on the road (their licence plates show as EV-XXXXXX) We played a little game to see how many we could spot on the busy road out of the city centre and counted about 30-45 in 2 mins.

[You Need a Thneed]

Battery costs are rapidly dropping.

Within 2-3 years, an EV might be cheaper than a similar gas powered vehicle, leaving people few reasons to stay with gas.

I predict that sales of new gas powered vehicles will be mostly gone by 2030.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Swift

This hasn't been mentioned in this thread (unless there's another EV thread?) but a 5 minute charge battery has been developed - https://www.theguardian.com/environm...charging-times

Additionally electric cars are now past the tipping point in Norway and are expected to pass that point globally in the next 2-4 years - https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-mass-adoption

I'm no expert on any of this, but I enjoy the discussion on it. I was in Oslo in 2019 and it was astounding to see so many EV cars on the road (their licence plates show as EV-XXXXXX) We played a little game to see how many we could spot on the busy road out of the city centre and counted about 30-45 in 2 mins.

The thing with Norway is they have massive incentives, and dis-incentives for ICE. The government is basically highly subsidizing them, so you aren't going to replicate that cheaply elsewhere.

2023 sounds pretty optimistic for cost parity as well. I'd guess it's in the 2025-2030 range. Though it feels like cars are just getting more and more expensive, so perhaps they'll meet in the middle. I don't really expect a ~25k CAD EV with decent range any time soon. Tesla has been struggling for years now to get to 35k US.

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Battery costs are rapidly dropping.

Within 2-3 years, an EV might be cheaper than a similar gas powered vehicle, leaving people few reasons to stay with gas.

I predict that sales of new gas powered vehicles will be mostly gone by 2030.

Competition of battery materials (i.e. lithium) is also going to rapidly increase with nearly all other major manufacturers pushing hard.

I think it's going to be pretty even with or without tax rebates. We'll likely see a 50/50 split between EV and gas by 2030 is my guess from a consumer level.

Where I think gas powered vehicles will be phased out sooner than later are things like city buses. There's going to be a huge push from governments to improve infrastructure that way, especially in the next four years in the US.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Battery costs are rapidly dropping.

Within 2-3 years, an EV might be cheaper than a similar gas powered vehicle, leaving people few reasons to stay with gas.

I predict that sales of new gas powered vehicles will be mostly gone by 2030.

How much do you want to wager on that? I'm game for $100 or more as I don't think EV's will even be at 50% market share by 2030 in North America.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Battery costs are rapidly dropping.

Within 2-3 years, an EV might be cheaper than a similar gas powered vehicle, leaving people few reasons to stay with gas.

I predict that sales of new gas powered vehicles will be mostly gone by 2030.

Range and charging infrastructure still need to be sorted out before I'd have an electric car as my only car, I think. I kind of have to roll my eyes at the Tesla guys at Lake Louise that have to wait their turn to charge their car, get off the hill, plug in, then when their car is going to be done, get off the hill again and move their car so the next guy can start charging. Just seems like such an unnecessary PITA.

I think a plug-in hybrid is the way to go for now to eliminate range and lack of chargers as concerns. I don't know if any are as cool as the dedicated electric cars, but, practically speaking, they're certainly better.

[Fuzz]

Mazda is using a rotary engine as a compact range extender, which makes a lot of sense.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Battery costs are rapidly dropping.

Within 2-3 years, an EV might be cheaper than a similar gas powered vehicle, leaving people few reasons to stay with gas.

I predict that sales of new gas powered vehicles will be mostly gone by 2030.

Nothing has changed to make electric vehicles anything but niche products.

They’re brilliant second cars.

But they’re not currently as useful as ICE cars, by a lot.

Especially in this gig economy.

[Azure]

I think the battery technology within the cars will advance far more rapidly than the infrastructure to charge them.

As such I think we won't see mass adoption for at least 5-7 years.

But we very clearly see that this is the future of transportation. Almost all the manufacturers are pumping billions into development.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Azure

I think the battery technology within the cars will advance far more rapidly than the infrastructure to charge them.

As such I think we won't see mass adoption for at least 5-7 years.

But we very clearly see that this is the future of transportation. Almost all the manufacturers are pumping billions into development.

This is uninformed silly talk. Mass adoption won't start for well over another decade in North America. Look at the EV sales numbers in Canada and the USA. It's miniscule and there's just no way in 5-7 years EV's can make up that much ground. Vehicles like the Ford Bronco hasn't even been launched yet and they are all sold out. That model will have a six year run that will be likely very successful deep into the decade. Jeep sales have almost doubles compared to 2005. North Americans are in no hurry to get into EV's. Mass adoption will take a long time in North America as it's going to be a very gradual process.

[Azure]

The only thing holding back companies like Tesla right now is manufacturing capability.

In the next 1-2 years we should see multiple factories come online exponentially increasing the amount of EVs sold.

There are other big players like Ford & GM that are also investing billions of dollars in development.

Mass adoption is not that far out. The biggest thing holding it back will be charging capabilities.

[InglewoodFan]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Mazda is using a rotary engine as a compact range extender, which makes a lot of sense.

This has me very interested. I just bought a CX-5 and very much like Mazda styling and interiors so an MX-30 would be a no-brainer for me. I had my eye on the Rav4 Prime, but price and availability killed that dream.

More realistically in the short term, I'm on the hunt for a used BMW i3 as an around town runabout. Even when I go back to work in the office, my commute is <10 km each way so I don't need much range.

[Ozy_Flame]

Oilprice.com: Biden To Replace Federal Fleet With EVs

President Joe Biden has vowed to replace the almost 650,000-strong federal vehicle fleet with electric cars as part of his climate agenda.

“The federal government also owns an enormous fleet of vehicles, which we’re going to replace with clean electric vehicles made right here in America made by American workers,” the President said on Monday, as quoted by Reuters.

“The current offerings are pretty slim, but the industry’s about to unleash an avalanche of new product, and a lot of it built in North America,” Kristin Dziczek, Automotive Research VP of industry, labor and economics at the Center for Automotive Research, told CNBC. “Just about every U.S. plant is going to have a hybrid or electric product.”

[Fuzz]

At this point, that type of fleet buying and delivery vehicles really make the most sense, and offer the most bang for the buck in terms of emissions reductions.

Why do we subsidize a wealthy person buying an EV who drives it 50km/day, when we have vehicles driving 8-10 hours a day? What reduces emissions more? I've never been a fan of the subsidy strategy for individual owners, and businesses don't seem to need much incentive, as they will probably see cost savings on vehicles like that.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

At this point, that type of fleet buying and delivery vehicles really make the most sense, and offer the most bang for the buck in terms of emissions reductions.



Why do we subsidize a wealthy person buying an EV who drives it 50km/day, when we have vehicles driving 8-10 hours a day? What reduces emissions more? I've never been a fan of the subsidy strategy for individual owners, and businesses don't seem to need much incentive, as they will probably see cost savings on vehicles like that.

Great point.

Never understood that either. In fact subsidies should obviously be aimed at the vehicles that put on the most miles.

[Misterpants]

What a huge driver for the infrastructure to support them too.

[Superflyer]

G.M. Will Sell Only Zero-Emission Vehicles by 2035

General Motors said Thursday that it would phase out petroleum-powered cars and trucks and sell only vehicles that have zero tailpipe emissions by 2035, a seismic shift by one of the world’s largest automakers that makes billions of dollars today from gas-guzzling pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles.

[IGGYRULES]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Range and charging infrastructure still need to be sorted out before I'd have an electric car as my only car, I think. I kind of have to roll my eyes at the Tesla guys at Lake Louise that have to wait their turn to charge their car, get off the hill, plug in, then when their car is going to be done, get off the hill again and move their car so the next guy can start charging. Just seems like such an unnecessary PITA.



I think a plug-in hybrid is the way to go for now to eliminate range and lack of chargers as concerns. I don't know if any are as cool as the dedicated electric cars, but, practically speaking, they're certainly better.

Hydrogen is where it's at if green hydrogen can be produced at scale. Granted we're years away from that but it's developing at a fairly rapid pace with huge money flowing into the sector.

[IGGYRULES]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

This is uninformed silly talk. Mass adoption won't start for well over another decade in North America. Look at the EV sales numbers in Canada and the USA. It's miniscule and there's just no way in 5-7 years EV's can make up that much ground. Vehicles like the Ford Bronco hasn't even been launched yet and they are all sold out. That model will have a six year run that will be likely very successful deep into the decade. Jeep sales have almost doubles compared to 2005. North Americans are in no hurry to get into EV's. Mass adoption will take a long time in North America as it's going to be a very gradual process.

The reason it's miniscule is that the incentive for the big 3 hasn't been there. Trump was pushing against green energy and set everything back for all of us here. He really screwed alot of things up for North America and development in that area. The big 3 were licking his boots as he was rolling back green legislation thus China is now leading the way here. GM has made a major pivot towards electric and is looking to have 40% of its production electric within the next 5 years. Norway 70+% of all new vehicles sold are electric.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gm-...2035-1.5892074

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elec...25%20in%202020.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by IGGYRULES

Hydrogen is where it's at if green hydrogen can be produced at scale. Granted we're years away from that but it's developing at a fairly rapid pace with huge money flowing into the sector.

How much?