Monthly Market Update

[BrownDrake]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

You would never know there is a recession in the under 500k market.
It is slower in the 500-700 range but not bad.
The 700+ is where you can feel a recession!

Credit is loose, when it tightens up back to long run criteria, where banks actually start being concerned about people paying back mortgages.

We have seen artificial house price gains in Canada due to loosening lending standards and more access to credit.

In the late nineties, early 2000's your banker was the cheapest most cautious person you knew, that changed as our economy needed housing for GDP growth.

We moved from average down payments of 15 to 20% on CMHC insured mortgages to only requiring 5% down and that becoming the norm, jacking average amortize periods of 25 years in early 2000's to 40 year amortize periods with 0 to 5% down in 2006. Check price gains in all Canadian markets from 2003 to 2007 - very telling.

It is easier for a person today to get approved with an income of $75,000 per year on a $400,000 mortgage with 10% down than a person making $150,000 per year and putting 26% down on a $600,000 home. Bankers actually love to talk you out of large down payments so you can get CMHC and "keep all your cash invested making you a return, house prices will always go up"

As soon as you are outside CMHC and the bank has to actually be concerned about you paying it back and not the tax payers of Canada - lending standards seem to get very stringent - amazing isn't it.

Reversion to mean, needs a catalyst - for Alberta/Saskatchewan it will be the price of oil and layoffs, for other parts of the country it will be over levered home owners and slight rises in interest rates.

If you have bought a home in Canada over the last 5 to 7 years with less than 20% down you will be underwater in the coming years. Recover under new CMHC rules and lessons people will learn will mean we revert back to long run fundamentals of home price appreciation - 1 to 2% per year - will take many years for some to return to equity positions on their homes.

[polak]

We've been waiting for this bubble to burst for so long, I'm so over being "warned" that it's coming.

It probably will come soon, but I would totally not be surprised if we're still being warned about it 4 or 5 years from now.

[ranchlandsselling]

Interesting as usually you don't have reference for how much prices dropped unless you can remember the original pricing.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=148155 Now Listed for $829,000

Same property listed for rent for $3500: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...57#post5431057

Obviously not moving as quickly as hoped although I noted it was listed both for sale and rent around the same time, but price has dropped both for purchase and rent down $70,000 and $500 respectively.

[ranchlandsselling]

Anyone find the Hopestreet commercials extremely annoying and obnoxious.

With the Calgary housing market in turmoil you may have to sell your house way below its true value, give it to us to rent out and then sell it for thousands and thousands more when the market recovers.

These guys know "true value" like I know the back of my head. Not to mention nice use of scare tactics about the market and having to accept thousands of dollars in losses. Knobs.

[BrownDrake]

No doubt...rent your home for what your mortgage costs, get another home/mortgage and move on with your life.

Oh and we will take 20% of the rental cause your too lazy or busy to look after your own assets.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling

Anyone find the Hopestreet commercials extremely annoying and obnoxious.

These guys know "true value" like I know the back of my head. Not to mention nice use of scare tactics about the market and having to accept thousands of dollars in losses. Knobs.

Came into this thread to specifically complain about this as well. When oil just started going down in the fall of 2014, they already had ads out that you couldn't sell now, so just rent with them (meanwhile, houses were still being sold just days after getting listed). Now they are making bold-face lies about how you will have to lower your price to sell and the rental market is great.

Maybe I should roll to the grinds your gears thread instead...

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling

Interesting as usually you don't have reference for how much prices dropped unless you can remember the original pricing.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=148155 Now Listed for $829,000

Same property listed for rent for $3500: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...57#post5431057

Obviously not moving as quickly as hoped although I noted it was listed both for sale and rent around the same time, but price has dropped both for purchase and rent down $70,000 and $500 respectively.

Listing is even at 799,900 now. A full 100k less. That's kind of crazy as you'd think someone that bought a house in this price region wouldn't really need to be as motivated (read: desperate) as they seem to be.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Listing is even at 799,900 now. A full 100k less. That's kind of crazy as you'd think someone that bought a house in this price region wouldn't really need to be as motivated (read: desperate) as they seem to be.

Maybe 800K is the new 400K.

[Travis Munroe]

Updated for October!

[gladaki]

Any Idea how much prices have been dropped for 350k to 450k range houses. ?

[polak]

Originally Posted by gladaki

Any Idea how much prices have been dropped for 350k to 450k range houses. ?

Sounds like it's negligible so far.

[Travis Munroe]

^ I don't have the numbers handy but the amount of these places that are C/S when I try to book showings is ridiculous. The places I am coming across are still asking the same as if it were a year ago and moving at such prices.

Bump into the 500 and up range and we see the exact opposite.

[darklord700]

I've been to a few Saturday's open house lately at the $800k+ range out of curiosity. These are new listings and to my surprise the open houses are generally packed. There's usually another good 3-4 groups of buyers there.

Not sure if those people are curious Georges like me but this close to Christmas people can't really be thinking about moving, can they?

[Travis Munroe]

In my experience, they would be curious Georges like you.
Those 2 infills I just sold around the 900 mark had open houses on them nearly every weekend. According to the realtors I had hosting them, they were extremely busy but little to nothing would come of them.

Everyone loves viewing luxury properties so it wouldnt surprise me if such open houses were busier than the 500 and under market but at the end of the day, most serious buyers are out on a Sunday with their realtor browsing homes and not bouncing to places that have a open house.

[Travis Munroe]

Updated for Novembers closing stats

[Regorium]

When do you think we'll see the January one?

[Travis Munroe]

Originally Posted by Regorium

When do you think we'll see the January one?

Within the hour - you can always sign up for the monthly newsletter which comes out earlier to your inbox and has many more stats/graphs, etc.

[Buzzcock]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

Within the hour - you can always sign up for the monthly newsletter which comes out earlier to your inbox and has many more stats/graphs, etc.

Is your newsletter registration working? I signed up back in October...nothing since then. I did get the confirmation e-mail but that's it.

[Travis Munroe]

Originally Posted by Buzzcock

Is your newsletter registration working? I signed up back in October...nothing since then. I did get the confirmation e-mail but that's it.

Please send me a direct email with the address used to sign up and I'll look into it in the morning!

[Travis Munroe]

Feb report (Jan stats) are now updated and in the original post