High Speed Rail Line to be built in Ontario

[ToewsFan]

"Holding a promise of efficiency, the report proposes two scenarios for train speed.
The first option shows that trains could travel at a maximum speed of 300 kilometres per hour, reducing travel time between Toronto and Windsor from four hours to just under two. It pegs the capital cost for the Toronto-London portion at $15 billion and London to Windsor for $4.4 billion.
This option would accumulate “significant costs” due to tunneling along the corridor, the report says.
In the second scenario, trains would travel up to 250 kilometres per hour and reduce travel times between Toronto and Windsor from four hours to just over two. The projected cost sits at more than $4 billion for the Toronto-London segment and $3.4 billion for London-Windsor.
The report estimates that the line would attract about 10 million people annually by 2041.
Wynne says the long contested rail line is an “extremely ambitious” project that will ultimately “cut travel time significantly” and encourage economic development to the communities involved."


http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/high-speed...ynne-1.3421300

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This would be one of the coolest things ever built, in terms of infrastructure projects in Canada.

[indes]

Definitely money in the budget to spend 20 billion so people can save 2 hours on their commute. Nice work Ontario!

[Azure]

10 million people annually at $10 per trip is $100 million per year.

That is just a guess at what a ticket price could be.

20-30 year payback? What about cost overruns? Similar rail projects across North America have always cost more than figured, and considering we'd have to use Bombardier and they can't do anything right I'm a bit skeptical of anything the Ontario government says.

[CaptainCrunch]

There's no way that this thing will cost 20 billion dollars.

I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of it this is a big boondoggle at double or triple the cost and the taxpayers end up paying a high speed premium to add to the pile of their other taxes and massive utility bills.

[ToewsFan]

I really wish this had been done in Alberta (Calgary-Edmonton). However, studies suggested Alberta does not have the population base to make it economically feasible:




"The Alberta government should not invest in a high-speed rail link between Calgary and Edmonton at this time, according to a new feasibility report released Friday.

It says the population base does not support spending the money. The cost of the line is estimated between $6 billion to $10 billion.

Instead, the province should invest in the expansion of light rail transit and other regional transportation systems.

Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi agrees with the key finding.

"In the case of Calgary and Edmonton we have to finish the LRT systems within each city," he said.

source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...ttee-1.2652342

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It's a shame. I would love to see high speed rail in Alberta, but I guess Southern Ontario just has a much larger population base to draw from.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by ToewsFan

I really wish this had been done in Alberta (Calgary-Edmonton). However, studies suggested Alberta does not have the population base to make it economically feasible:




"The Alberta government should not invest in a high-speed rail link between Calgary and Edmonton at this time, according to a new feasibility report released Friday.

It says the population base does not support spending the money. The cost of the line is estimated between $6 billion to $10 billion.

Instead, the province should invest in the expansion of light rail transit and other regional transportation systems.

Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi agrees with the key finding.

"In the case of Calgary and Edmonton we have to finish the LRT systems within each city," he said.

source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...ttee-1.2652342

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It's a shame. I would love to see high speed rail in Alberta, but I guess Southern Ontario just has a much larger population base to draw from.

I think population growth being a bigger issue than pure population. It's likely that the population of southern Ontario continues to grow at a speed that will place a huge burden on existing transportation infrastructure, and some sort of next generation transportation solution will be necessary; at that point, high-speed rail can be weighed against other possible solutions (and is still the porche of solutions, but it's a reasonable conversation). It's hard to imagine the population of the Alberta corridor expanding in such a way that the QE2 becomes inadequate beyond bedroom community or long-weekend problems.

Even within southern Ontario this definitely has boondoggle potential, although the same is true of all potential solutions. The worst thing they can do is spend a lot of money that fails to keep up with demand and has little room for further expansion. I think they should begin acquiring what land they can now as some sort of solution will be necessary, but I wouldn't commit to high speed rail yet, I'd wait a decade to see the state of technology.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by indes

Definitely money in the budget to spend 20 billion so people can save 2 hours on their commute. Nice work Ontario!

Solid analysis there, thank you.

1) people actually buy tickets, paying back much, if not all of the cost over time, and

2) it takes cars off the 401. You have to factor how much less expansion and maintenance the 401 requires, as well as the reduction in accidents and fatalities.

And of course there is the environmental side of it as well.

[Enoch Root]

The other interesting thing is that it could push 'bedroom community' as far back as London.

If it's under 2 hours to Windsor, then it's under an hour from London to Toronto (let's say a little over an hour due to stops).

If you worked anywhere near union station (or could get from there to your job with an easy connection), you could conceivably work in downtown Toronto and live in London.

That's NY-level commuting there!

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The other interesting thing is that it could push 'bedroom community' as far back as London.

If it's under 2 hours to Windsor, then it's under an hour from London to Toronto (let's say a little over an hour due to stops).

If you worked anywhere near union station (or could get from there to your job with an easy connection), you could conceivably work in downtown Toronto and live in London.

That's NY-level commuting there!

Answer to Vancouver's problems there, doesn't even need to be high speed, just the average 100mph train from Hope to Downtown

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Answer to Vancouver's problems there, doesn't even need to be high speed, just the average 100mph train from Hope to Downtown

#homes4millenials

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Azure

10 million people annually at $10 per trip is $100 million per year.

That is just a guess at what a ticket price could be.

20-30 year payback? What about cost overruns? Similar rail projects across North America have always cost more than figured, and considering we'd have to use Bombardier and they can't do anything right I'm a bit skeptical of anything the Ontario government says.

You can probably quintuple your average fare to around 50 dollars, as currently via charges 33 bucks for economy and 65 dollars for business, as I am assuming people may pay slightly more for quicker service. So that would be 500 million annually.

[Locke]

It increases opportunities for people to Commute to work in Toronto from further away which will ease some of their insane property prices and congestion on the 401.

Its a good idea and generally speaking this is the kind of stuff you want to be building during a slow economic period. It puts money in the hands of the people who spend it to build it initially and it provides a public service.

Win/Win IMO. This is the kind of things Governments should be doing right now.

[indes]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Solid analysis there, thank you.

1) people actually buy tickets, paying back much, if not all of the cost over time, and

2) it takes cars off the 401. You have to factor how much less expansion and maintenance the 401 requires, as well as the reduction in accidents and fatalities.

And of course there is the environmental side of it as well.

Sure there is some upside. In a province that train wrecked their energy program and is running a gigantic deficit I feel they should look at fixing some problems or cutting spending.

The spending in this country has gotten out of control. You have some great points and I have no doubt it will improve the lives of many commuters but at the end of the day its 20 billion dollars. They estimate it will yield 20 billion in 60 years, 60. years. They're counting the money people will save on vehicle maintenance for that figure, so it's hard to say when it will pay for itself but it will be much longer than 60 years. That is the initial cost, I have no doubt they've left out maintenance on the train/line, operating costs of the trains. These are all just estimates of how much the train will be used as well.

Another politician spending billions of dollars to get votes in next years election. I would be surprised if this ends up being a net positive in 75 years with the debt servicing.

“Overall, HSR will yield over $20 billion in economic benefits over 60 years from passenger travel time savings, automobile operating cost savings, GHG (greenhouse gas) reduction benefits, benefits from reduced congestion on roads and other, wider economic benefits,” he wrote.

Welp I'm sold.

Its a good thing most voters just want shiny things.

[Regorium]

The suggested line is ~600 km for ~20 billion dollars, which is approximately 33 million dollars per kilometer.

This is an extremely low estimate. China builds high speed rail for 20 million per kilometer. Europe does it for about 30 million a kilometer (USD). The USA is closer to 60 million a kilometer (USD).

We're basically saying we're going to be as efficient as China, and that's in the high cost estimate scenario.

I have no idea how they're going to build a line from Toronto to London for less than the cost of our Green Line.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Locke

It increases opportunities for people to Commute to work in Toronto from further away which will ease some of their insane property prices and congestion on the 401.

Its a good idea and generally speaking this is the kind of stuff you want to be building during a slow economic period. It puts money in the hands of the people who spend it to build it initially and it provides a public service.

Win/Win IMO. This is the kind of things Governments should be doing right now.

Agreed. Infrastructure is the biggest limiting economic factor in Ontario right now. In fact, it is probably a net negative. The Toronto to Windsor corridor is one of the busiest in North America.

[Northendzone]

Wow, I would sure like to know where the government of Ontario plans on getting the money for this.....plus she has yet another year to campaign so how many more trillions is she going to spend, er, I mean borrow

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

Wow, I would sure like to know where the government of Ontario plans on getting the money for this.....plus she has yet another year to campaign so how many more trillions is she going to spend, er, I mean borrow

lets think now, who builds trains in Canada? bombardier, my guess is we are going to pay for it

[Cheese]

Tremendous and long overdue. Anyone who travels that 401 corridor understands this need. Further to this, KW and London are becoming tech hubs and getting people to work here from Toronto is over a two hour commute in rush hour...kW to union will be 45 minutes on the bullet...tremendous. They will be able to utilize existing track for most of this run which helps alleviate cost on the 250km/hrs train. They would have to install new track for the 300k train. Having lived in Asia these trains are amazing in that people can work in major hubs and live 100s of kms away.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Azure

10 million people annually at $10 per trip is $100 million per year.

That is just a guess at what a ticket price could be.

I can't imagine it being that low.

Windsor to Toronto is about the same distance as Munich to Frankfurt, and booking a second class ticket on a high-speed train between those cities is over 50€.

Even today, if you take the GO Train from Kitchener to Toronto, a regular adult fare is over $17. Kitchener is only about a quarter the distance as Windsor and half as far as London.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by ToewsFan

I really wish this had been done in Alberta (Calgary-Edmonton). However, studies suggested Alberta does not have the population base to make it economically feasible:



It's a shame. I would love to see high speed rail in Alberta, but I guess Southern Ontario just has a much larger population base to draw from.

Yet if you look a the route and use Toronto as the destination you have metro populations of the following train stops to draw from.

London - 494,000
Kitchener/Waterloo - 522,000
Guelph - 141,000

Total - 1,157,000

Now if you use Calgary as the destination you have metro populations of the following stops to draw from.

Red Deer - 114,000
Edmonton - 1,321,000

Total - 1,435,000