American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by activeStick

I just saw the below video explaining the risk the Democrats took when they re-districted the lines earlier this year in Nevada by gerrymandering for a larger area that was a bit of a high risk, high reward move.

Nevada is still counting so it'll be interesting to see if the Dems risk pays off.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/d...gerrymander%2F

The congressional seats have all been called though, and looks like it worked in their favor (they won 3 of Nevada's 4 seats). What's still up in the air in the Senate, which is a state-wide race that's unaffected by district borders.

[pylon]

It's so good to see that the mid-terms went controversy free for the better part, and most of these Jock Sniffing Trump MAGA lunatics are being held accountable as well. I was truly worried, and fully expected a red wave. Perhaps I underestimated the rationality of Americans. But it's great to see these election deniers are truly on the fringe now, and most losers are bowing out gracefully. (Looking at you Kari Lake.)

I don't necessarily think having Congress and the Senate controlled by opposing parties is necessarily a bad thing at this point. Maybe, just maybe, it will force more rational behavior and both sides can try and compromise on a few things. Both sides can feel like they won something.

It seems the stability of Democracy is slowly being restored, Trump is in death rattle mode, and that makes me very happy. I don't really care about Left or Right leading the charge. Let the majority decide that. All I care that it's a decent human being that isn't an evil piece of of trash using the most powerful position in existence, for bullying opponents, and for personal gain.

Good job America.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Manchin was a centrist and pragmatist , left of that hate him for not rolling over in the AOC craze 2 years ago. Kinda like the hate Republicans get for rolling over for Trump. Manchin did Dems a favor by moderating them.

I get the happiness there is no red wave but seeing as the Republicans are flat out nuts the Dems losing the House is a wake up. Need to moderate and tuck the left flanks away if they want to win the next election.

Yeah, the guy who governs like a right wing Republican-lite coal industry bootlicker is definitely a "centrist pregmatist".

Literally the President, almost all house Democrats, and all senate Democrats aside from two, wanted to pass various bills, all of which either got outright blocked or heavily amended by Manchin/Sinema. Are you telling me that the entire Democratic party aside from two senators are the "looney left" now? Or is it more likely that Manchin/Sinema are actually right wingers barely masquerading as Democrats?

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by calculoso

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591211874917486594

I still think its a greater than 50% chance that if Trump gets involved in the Republican primaries - he wins. He just sucks all of the air out of the room and I don't think charisma vacuums like DeSantis or Ted Cruz or whoever will hold up to him.

He also brings in viewers and clicks at a much higher rates than anyone else so even though Fox and the Murdoch papers are turning at him now, they'll keep writing about him. They tried to turn on him after the last election and the even more right wing networks like OAN and Newsmax gained viewers from them so they all got back in line soon enough.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Yeah, the guy who governs like a right wing Republican-lite coal industry bootlicker is definitely a "centrist pregmatist".

Literally the President, almost all house Democrats, and all senate Democrats aside from two, wanted to pass various bills, all of which either got outright blocked or heavily amended by Manchin/Sinema. Are you telling me that the entire Democratic party aside from two senators are the "looney left" now? Or is it more likely that Manchin/Sinema are actually right wingers barely masquerading as Democrats?

I've said this 50 times in this thread so what's one more.

There is no other democrat in the world who can win a seat in West Virginia. Yes - Manchin leans more to the right than others, but your options are:
1) Have Manchin in the senate - pass the covid relief bill and Inflation reduction act - even if they were watered down.

2) Primary Manchin with some other Democrat who meets your wishes - lose the West Virginia senate seat by 20 points. Have the Republicans control the senate and pass nothing

In an ideal world - you win Nevada (which they will) and Georgia so you can have those Manchin and Sinema battle against each other to get what they want. But the Democrats should be on the knees thanking Manchin every day for giving them a chance to pass anything because they have a 0% chance of holding a West Virginia senate seat without him.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by opendoor

The congressional seats have all been called though, and looks like it worked in their favor (they won 3 of Nevada's 4 seats). What's still up in the air in the Senate, which is a state-wide race that's unaffected by district borders.

Didn't know the congressional seats were all finalized. Looks like the risk worked out!

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I've said this 50 times in this thread so what's one more.

There is no other democrat in the world who can win a seat in West Virginia. Yes - Manchin leans more to the right than others, but your options are:
1) Have Manchin in the senate - pass the covid relief bill and Inflation reduction act - even if they were watered down.

2) Primary Manchin with some other Democrat who meets your wishes - lose the West Virginia senate seat by 20 points. Have the Republicans control the senate and pass nothing

In an ideal world - you win Nevada (which they will) and Georgia so you can have those Manchin and Sinema battle against each other to get what they want. But the Democrats should be on the knees thanking Manchin every day for giving them a chance to pass anything because they have a 0% chance of holding a West Virginia senate seat without him.

Sinema is a different story as the Democrats have won the other Arizona seat as well with a less abrasive candidate.

I expect she will get a serious primary challenger

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I've said this 50 times in this thread so what's one more.

There is no other democrat in the world who can win a seat in West Virginia. Yes - Manchin leans more to the right than others, but your options are:
1) Have Manchin in the senate - pass the covid relief bill and Inflation reduction act - even if they were watered down.

2) Primary Manchin with some other Democrat who meets your wishes - lose the West Virginia senate seat by 20 points. Have the Republicans control the senate and pass nothing

In an ideal world - you win Nevada (which they will) and Georgia so you can have those Manchin and Sinema battle against each other to get what they want. But the Democrats should be on the knees thanking Manchin every day for giving them a chance to pass anything because they have a 0% chance of holding a West Virginia senate seat without him.

I understand all this. It doesn't change the fact that he's a right wing coal industry bootlicker. The idea that he's some sort of "centrist pragmatist" or "voice of reason" is laughable.

Dems really should be able to win enough senate seats to make the point moot. But they're heavily disadvantaged by the disproportionate power small states have over big states. It can't be justified that Wyoming has as much power as California in the senate, but it does anyway.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

I understand all this. It doesn't change the fact that he's a right wing coal industry bootlicker. The idea that he's some sort of "centrist pragmatist" or "voice of reason" is laughable.

Dems really should be able to win enough senate seats to make the point moot. But they're heavily disadvantaged by the disproportionate power small states have over big states. It can't be justified that Wyoming has as much power as California in the senate, but it does anyway.

Can you make a mature argument without throwing in infantile name calling like bootlicker?

Yeah, Manchin will generally vote against anything that hurts the coal industry. The jobs may be crappy, and coal is awful for the environment, but it is still an important industry to people in his state and the state expects him to support them.

One thing he did do that falls in the centrist/pragmatic is to put the brakes on some of the bills that were definitely going to contribute to increasing inflation. That probably saved the Democrats from themselves a bit and helped their prospects in the midterms.

[IGGYRULES]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Can you make a mature argument without throwing in infantile name calling like bootlicker?

Yeah, Manchin will generally vote against anything that hurts the coal industry. The jobs may be crappy, and coal is awful for the environment, but it is still an important industry to people in his state and the state expects him to support them.

One thing he did do that falls in the centrist/pragmatic is to put the brakes on some of the bills that were definitely going to contribute to increasing inflation. That probably saved the Democrats from themselves a bit and helped their prospects in the midterms.

He's calling a spade a spade. Manchin is a bootlicker for the coal industry. Also should note Manchin is very heavily invested in the coal industry. He has a personal financial interest here so of course he's going to obstruct and delay anything that may harm the industry and his investements.

If he really cared about his constituents he should be asking for funds to be allocated within these bills to create jobs in clean energy so they can transition away from the coal industry although that would harm him personally. The death of the coal industry is inevitable. A retraining grant allocation for Americans working in industries like coal etc.. With the power he wields he could be doing much more for his state instead of hanging onto the status quo.

He's a Republican dressed as a democrat, but at least he's not a fascist.

Sent from my SM-S908W using Tapatalk

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Yeah, Manchin will generally vote against anything that hurts the coal industry. The jobs may be crappy, and coal is awful for the environment, but it is still an important industry to people in his state and the state expects him to support them.

One thing he did do that falls in the centrist/pragmatic is to put the brakes on some of the bills that were definitely going to contribute to increasing inflation. That probably saved the Democrats from themselves a bit and helped their prospects in the midterms.

Sorry if I have no love for West Virginia. For decades it has known that it had to gradually shift its economy away from dependence on the coal industry, but never really did it.

The inflation of the past 2 years has mostly been driven by 2 factors, first, supply chain disruptions (still ongoing) due to the pandemic, and second, dramatically increased fuel and energy prices, the causes of which are 1) oil companies heavily cutting back on exploration, 2) OPEC+ deciding to cut production, and 3) Putin's invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions from western countries.

Attempts to place the bulk of the inflation blame on government spending, are right-wing opportunism cloaked as economic analysis.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Sorry if I have no love for West Virginia. For decades it has known that it had to gradually shift its economy away from dependence on the coal industry, but never really did it.

The inflation of the past 2 years has mostly been driven by 2 factors, first, supply chain disruptions (still ongoing) due to the pandemic, and second, dramatically increased fuel and energy prices, the causes of which are 1) oil companies heavily cutting back on exploration, 2) OPEC+ deciding to cut production, and 3) Putin's invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions from western countries.

Attempts to place the bulk of the inflation blame on government spending, are right-wing opportunism cloaked as economic analysis.

There are nice places to visit in W Virginia, but honestly the best prospects for most West Virginian's in towns supported by coal is to to leave. For the people left, it's what they have.

Agreed there are many factors that led to inflation. It probably started with Trump's tax cuts adding money to an already roaring economy. All the things you said contributed as well. Pumping more and more government money into the economy was a big contributor as well. Energy prices and supply chain issues didn't create bidding wars for houses in nearly every area in the US or lead to a labor market shortages across the board. There was a big spike on the demand side of the economy that contributed to inflation. Handing out more stimulus checks or otherwise adding funds to the economy would have made a bigger problem.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Energy prices and supply chain issues didn't create bidding wars for houses in nearly every area in the US or lead to a labor market shortages across the board. There was a big spike on the demand side of the economy that contributed to inflation. Handing out more stimulus checks or otherwise adding funds to the economy would have made a bigger problem.

US billionaires got 70% richer during the pandemic. https://inequality.org/great-divide/...aire-pandemic/

The wealthy using their increases in wealth to buy up real estate sounds about right. Combine that with Chinese investors looking to move their money out of the collapsing Chinese market and park it in North American real estate.

Of course there was a surge in pent-up demand from when lockdowns were lifted and people resumed their normal consumptive lives. This would have happened with or without government stimulus.

And yes the Trump tax cuts. An important factor that a lot of people overlook in all of this.

[activeStick]

Have to admit, this supercut was satisfying to watch

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591407116308582401

[devo22]

Originally Posted by devo22

You want a really cool under-the-radar upset? It looks like Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) is about to win the WA-03 seat. It hasn't been called yet and there's some way to go, but it's looking increasingly likely that she might take this seat from the Republicans. It's a rural, red district where, since redistricting in 2010, Republicans have won easily in every election. It's an R +9 seat, as per 538.

This is, of course, Jamie Herrera Beutler's seat. She was one of the ten Republicans who dared to vote to impeach the orange overlord and one who supported the January 6 commission, and so of course MAGA primaried her. She narrowly lost the primary to MAGA choice Joe Kent, who has been endorsed by Trump, Gaetz, Flynn, Gosar and friends ... that's really all you need to know about him.

Well, they seat might instead go to a young, working-class auto shop owner, who doesn't take money from corporate PACs, who wasn't heavily supported by the party and who focused on a well-run grassroots campaign. The latest numbers suggest Gluesenkamp Perez is leading Kent by 2.3 points, and the outstanding ballots might give her enough edge to pull it off.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1590919970342723584

I really hope she makes it. These are the kind of races that show that, in spite of the insanity you see elsewhere, not everything is lost just yet.

called for Gluesenkamp Perez. 538 gave her a chance of 2% ... huge upset, and a fun one at that. Trump had a huge hand at gifting that seat to the Democrats. If they somehow make it to 218 (huge IF, obviously), then because of races like this one.

[MissTeeks]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1591615929795870721

[photon]

So that makes 50 right?

Winning the runoff would just be gravy then

[GGG]

Originally Posted by photon

So that makes 50 right?

Winning the runoff would just be gravy then

It becomes fairly critical in two years when the map is less favourable for the Dems who have to defend there wins from the 2018 midterms.

Montana, West Virgina, and another round in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Being able to lose 1 or the presidency would be huge.

[activeStick]

Lol at the GOP

[direwolf]

Holy crap, that's a big win for the Dems. I have to admit, I had zero faith in the American electorate and I was fully expecting team blue to lose both chambers. These elections have been a very pleasant surprise so far, and a much needed boost of positivity for U.S. democracy.

Now we just need that despicable sack of s*** Kari Lake to lose in Arizona, and for Warnock to win the Georgia runoff.