I do think the depreciation thing will be a concern, but for the same reason it is with other electronics: technology changes. As EVs are still fairly new, the iterative changes are significant and so older vehicles will be significantly less advanced than the newer ones and the prices will reflect that.
One underappreciated issue with used vehicles will be the market for used combustion vehicles as they become harder/more expensive to fix and fuel. We're a ways from that reality right now, but increased fuel taxation and other "penalties" (think cities banning ICE in their cores, etc) that will be levied on combustion vehicles the market will dwindle at the same time there's going to be an increase in people switching to electric vehicles and selling their old ICE vehicles.
And that will hurt the poor working class the most. People who can afford new improved BEV's will be fine, but if you can only afford a $2000 ICE you need for your job, then get penalized in all other sorts of ways, or you have to buy a more expensive older BEV with potential charging issues, it becomes a bit of a problem.
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If off warranty battery replacements become a common thing there will probably be more aftermarket support for it too, so rather than having to pay the manufacturer a huge $$ for an entire replacement pack there would probably be refurb packs or aftermarket packs for more reasonable prices. At least if it's possible.
__________________ Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
There's zero reason to think a battery won't last as long or longer than an engine. Zero. The point I made about the battery warranty is that the warranty and the expected life of the battery have nothing to do with each other just like with the engine and their warranties.
The oldest mass produced electric car is the leaf and some of those batteries have lost a lot of capacity but they were never thermally managed or charge limited like every other model out there now. There's Tesla's that are over 500,000 miles and still have the original battery. Toyota Prius Hybrids have a battery and they never need replacing.
It's a non issue
I dunno, I think most peoples' personal experiences with rechargeable battery powered devices would suggest otherwise. I have three new(ish) devices within arms reach that I had to replace primarily because of battery issues with their predecessors. I can tolerate a lot of performance issues with aging products, but the battery seems to be a common existential issue.
There are probably lots of reasons EV batteries could be immune to those issues, but IMO it's reasonable to have some concern.
My main point is that I wish all of the eggs weren't going into a single half-ton basket. I'm sure there are lots of efficiencies achieved by building such big batteries, but I'd be far more interested in the opportunity to right-size the battery(s) to your needs.
i.e. instead of a single 500kg battery, could a vehicle take up to four 125kg batteries instead? I'd probably opt for 2/4 to start and consider adding/replacing them down the road if necessary. Almost like RAM or HDDs on a computer...
The problem with that thinking is the batteries tend to be hard to access. You can't make them easy, as they are now being used as a structural part of the car(some new Tesla's like the Y). Even if they aren't structural, they stuff them where they can at the lowest COG possible. Any change to that is a compromise on other aspects. And then you have to support this as an after market add on, which has other costs. I just don't see any automaker doing it.
If you are interested I'd recommend watching some of the Munro teardown's of various EV's, I think you will understand the challenges to your proposal better.
I dunno, I think most peoples' personal experiences with rechargeable battery powered devices would suggest otherwise. I have three new(ish) devices within arms reach that I had to replace primarily because of battery issues with their predecessors. I can tolerate a lot of performance issues with aging products, but the battery seems to be a common existential issue.
There are probably lots of reasons EV batteries could be immune to those issues, but IMO it's reasonable to have some concern.
My main point is that I wish all of the eggs weren't going into a single half-ton basket. I'm sure there are lots of efficiencies achieved by building such big batteries, but I'd be far more interested in the opportunity to right-size the battery(s) to your needs.
i.e. instead of a single 500kg battery, could a vehicle take up to four 125kg batteries instead? I'd probably opt for 2/4 to start and consider adding/replacing them down the road if necessary. Almost like RAM or HDDs on a computer...
There's a couple misconceptions that need to be addressed here first.
1) The battery chemistry and active battery management make these batteries much different than the ones in consumer electronics. Actively managing temperature and charge/discharge means the life expectancy is much better, and the chemistry is also quite different.
2) The batteries in the vehicles are not one big cell. For example, a standard range model 3 has 2976 batteries (a little bigger than a double A) arranged in 96 groups of 31. It's not one big cell
As to the "right sizing" of battery to needs, I agree. Unfortunately consumer sentiment is nixing this idea. Electric vehicles with shorter range simply don't sell, even if the consumers never leave their city. I do think this will change with time as people become less worried about running out of charge. Interestingly, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer in China and they have an interesting solution where you don't own the battery. Instead of relying solely on charging, you can go to one of their many automated battery swapping stations. Not only can you swap your empty battery for a new one, but as you're paying a fee for the battery you can save money with a small one and only swap for a big one when you need it for a long trip. That may not be feasible everywhere but it's been extremely successful in China. I'm not sure people realize this but if the 20+ million electric cars on the road, almost half are in China. They've got a lot of this figured out already.
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The problem with that thinking is the batteries tend to be hard to access. You can't make them easy, as they are now being used as a structural part of the car(some new Tesla's like the Y). Even if they aren't structural, they stuff them where they can at the lowest COG possible. Any change to that is a compromise on other aspects. And then you have to support this as an after market add on, which has other costs. I just don't see any automaker doing it.
If you are interested I'd recommend watching some of the Munro teardown's of various EV's, I think you will understand the challenges to your proposal better.
Of course it's a design challenge against the developing norms, but it's not insurmountable.
Even now we're seeing models that come as Hybrid/PHEV/EV (Kia Niro for example) - each having a different capacity battery. Chrysler Pacifica can be a PHEV, or not (mid-row can fold down where the batteries would otherwise be). AFAIK there are no difference in the platform/chasis designs for each.
Of course they are going to be tough to access and isn't going to be like changing your own oil in your driveway...though I just went down a youtube rabbithole that shows it isn't totally inconceivable:
If a youtuber can pull that off, I feel pretty confident the engineers at various billion dollar car companies could figure out a right-sizing model.
I posted this a while ago...I doubt this particular venture amounts to anything special, but it shows that tech/design are not really the barrier here
This'll probably just be another one of those things that the rest of the world ends up doing but "would never work in North America"
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The guys talking at 11 explain why it isn't being considered. I think it's a decent idea for some things, but I just don't see consumer car manufacturers doing it. There is so little benefit, considering the drawbacks.
Hell, look at phones. We used to have swap-able batteries, but phone manufacturers found there are engineering compromises, and now we all have phones with built in batteries.
If a youtuber can pull that off, I feel pretty confident the engineers at various billion dollar car companies could figure out a right-sizing model.
Which variable(s) are you optimizing by right sizing the battery? It's one thing for a hobbyist to convert a Jaguar to an EV and a very different thing to mass produce EVs to make a profit.
These cars will undoubtedly be people's daily drivers, reliability and range are the priority, the guy with the Jaguar is probably more ok with his car dying on the side of the road.
Allowing lay people to select battery size doesn't seem like a good idea IMHO.
Re: swappable batteries, I think it's niche at best and at worst, a problem looking for a solution. You could swap out a full gas tank for an empty one, but why do that?
__________________ It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?
Swappable batteries may need to become a thing if charging infrastructure doesn’t match growing EV numbers. I don’t think anybody will tolerate waiting in line for a charge. What’s people’s limit for waiting? People whine about a 10 minute line up at Costco.
Swappable batteries may need to become a thing if charging infrastructure doesn’t match growing EV numbers. I don’t think anybody will tolerate waiting in line for a charge. What’s people’s limit for waiting? People whine about a 10 minute line up at Costco.
Agreed, but the market will take care of that. Remember too, that most people can charge at home and wake up every morning with a full charge. The only queuing will be for travel corridors. Chargers are way, way, way easier and quicker to install than gas stations. It would cost much more to install a swap station than a charging station.
Which variable(s) are you optimizing by right sizing the battery? It's one thing for a hobbyist to convert a Jaguar to an EV and a very different thing to mass produce EVs to make a profit.
These cars will undoubtedly be people's daily drivers, reliability and range are the priority, the guy with the Jaguar is probably more ok with his car dying on the side of the road.
Allowing lay people to select battery size doesn't seem like a good idea IMHO.
Re: swappable batteries, I think it's niche at best and at worst, a problem looking for a solution. You could swap out a full gas tank for an empty one, but why do that?
It would be differentiation for a manufacturer - letting them compete on price and consumer confidence in long-term viability of product. It would also hedge them against battery material supply constraints (they could potentially sell 2 vehicles using the same materials as another company selling 1).
TBH I have no idea how much of an issue that will actually be, but present trajectory has most EVs carrying around 3-4x more lithium+cobalt+etc than is actually necessary (not to mention the inefficiency of transporting all that weight).
On the swappable side, despite this immense focus on range, it isn't really solving the [overblown but valid] concerns about distance travel. The obvious short-mid term answer is a PHEV if you do a lot of highway travel (and aren't willing to deal with some charging inconveniences). I don't think swapping would be a panacea, just another option to optimize.
My main point is that we seem to be finding the worst of both worlds:
1. heavy+material intensive cars that are massive overkill for 95% of the time...
2. but they still aren't really effective for the other 5%
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Swappable batteries may need to become a thing if charging infrastructure doesn’t match growing EV numbers. I don’t think anybody will tolerate waiting in line for a charge. What’s people’s limit for waiting? People whine about a 10 minute line up at Costco.
I thought the long term suggested plan was to install wireless charging on certain roads/certain parking lots?
It would be differentiation for a manufacturer - letting them compete on price and consumer confidence in long-term viability of product. It would also hedge them against battery material supply constraints (they could potentially sell 2 vehicles using the same materials as another company selling 1).
TBH I have no idea how much of an issue that will actually be, but present trajectory has most EVs carrying around 3-4x more lithium+cobalt+etc than is actually necessary (not to mention the inefficiency of transporting all that weight).
On the swappable side, despite this immense focus on range, it isn't really solving the [overblown but valid] concerns about distance travel. The obvious short-mid term answer is a PHEV if you do a lot of highway travel (and aren't willing to deal with some charging inconveniences). I don't think swapping would be a panacea, just another option to optimize.
My main point is that we seem to be finding the worst of both worlds:
1. heavy+material intensive cars that are massive overkill for 95% of the time...
2. but they still aren't really effective for the other 5%
The trouble is the market. Whenever a low range variant is available, no one buys them. I think this will change as people become more accustomed to technology and they recognize the savings in purchasing a shorter range vehicle, but for now it's a non starter
The trouble is the market. Whenever a low range variant is available, no one buys them. I think this will change as people become more accustomed to technology and they recognize the savings in purchasing a shorter range vehicle, but for now it's a non starter
If the low range variants were actually cheaper and lighter then I think there would be a market for intra-city commuters.
The problem is many of the low range variants I see are almost as costly and have the same battery pack, just functionality locked behind software licenses.
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The trouble is the market. Whenever a low range variant is available, no one buys them. I think this will change as people become more accustomed to technology and they recognize the savings in purchasing a shorter range vehicle, but for now it's a non starter
As H&L says there hasn't been any discount or other benefits/flexibility on those models.
There are a lot of ICE models where you can choose a bigger/small engine or AT/MT. I don't see why doing similar with battery size should be that radical.
I'd just be interested to see real world driving data and how many people actually dip below 50% on a regular basis
As H&L says there hasn't been any discount or other benefits/flexibility on those models.
There are a lot of ICE models where you can choose a bigger/small engine or AT/MT. I don't see why doing similar with battery size should be that radical.
I'd just be interested to see real world driving data and how many people actually dip below 50% on a regular basis
I think we're taking past each other. I'm not disagreeing, I'm saying there isn't a market for it yet. These are new and supply constrained so there is no economical model because everyone who wants one can afford the longer range and that's where the margin is. Give it 5-10 years and I think you'll see those models. Until about 3 or 4 years ago there was only Tesla or Nissan Leaf so it'll take a bit.
My main point is that we seem to be finding the worst of both worlds:
1. heavy+material intensive cars that are massive overkill for 95% of the time...
2. but they still aren't really effective for the other 5%
Fair point, but I really think what you are pointing out is more of a mid-transition problem. Optimizing EVs will happen once they are widely adopted; 'society' simply isn't there yet.
Also, as SP pointed out the market or 'society' isn't there yet. Until they get over range anxiety, I would submit that the EV manufacturers are committed to the inefficiencies.
Random but, somewhat related aside:
A buddy of mine works for Zoox. There is going to be a crossover in the near future where autonomous cars really start to question people's relationship with car ownership vs "car as a service" and what a car actually 'is' or even looks like. Once that happens, the range anxiety becomes moot.
__________________ It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?
