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Old 03-09-2023, 10:46 AM   #5141
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For sure. It's also beyond anything the government does policy-wise.
Also, beef increased disproportionally because of the drought in Canada and the US. Farmers reduced their herds by over 100,000 cattle. Canadian farmers are also shipping more beef south as the US was hit harder by the drought and their supply of beef is even lower than in Canada. Those things drive up prices in Canada, and again, are beyond the control of grocers.
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Old 03-09-2023, 10:48 AM   #5142
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Also, beef increased disproportionally because of the drought in Canada and the US. Farmers reduced their herds by over 100,000 cattle. Canadian farmers are also shipping more beef south as the US was hit harder by the drought and their supply of beef is even lower than in Canada. Those things drive up prices in Canada, and again, are beyond the control of grocers.
You can technically point to government policy with that one in regards to climate change, but I'm guessing that's not a fight the CPC wants to have.
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Old 03-09-2023, 10:53 AM   #5143
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Also, beef increased disproportionally because of the drought in Canada and the US. Farmers reduced their herds by over 100,000 cattle. Canadian farmers are also shipping more beef south as the US was hit harder by the drought and their supply of beef is even lower than in Canada. Those things drive up prices in Canada, and again, are beyond the control of grocers.
Another example of free trade lowering prices?
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Old 03-09-2023, 12:04 PM   #5144
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Another example of free trade lowering prices?
Personally, I donít think so. Farmers selling off cattle due to drought has sort of artificially kept the price of beef a bit lower than it should be (more supply than demand). We will see the price of beef increase dramatically over the next few years, because of the smaller herd sizes and slightly increased demand due to population increases.

I donít think you can pin it on free trade.
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Old 03-09-2023, 12:35 PM   #5145
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I think the bolded is because of oligopolies. The cost of entry into the market makes it not possible to set up a competitive option which allows the current dominant groups in the market to set prices without the threat of competition. There is not real meaningful competition due to high barriers to entry.
Agreed. In my opinion, this is the key factor behind the sustained inflation. It is especially bad in Canada, but itís a world wide trend that has me incredibly worried.

Grocery stores, airlines, telecoms, etcÖ get the headlines, but almost every industry has been consolidated to the point of being an oligopoly.

Besides low barrier of entry service businesses (restaurants, landscapers, dry cleaners, etc..) can anyone here think of an industry with good competition?

For example, I work in the power industry. 90 percent of the gas turbine manufacturing industry is controlled by GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi. None of which are Canadian. So if weíre building a new gas power plant, we are the mercy of three foreign companies and their above inflation pricing. And their above inflation SRP contracts.

And since the cost of building/producing power costs more, this gets passed onto customers and then this starts to snowball. Customers like Loblaws. Who can then raise prices because input costs are up and because they are a dominant market position where consumers have no choice but to shop there.

It is frustrating. Even if Canadians agreed politically on the approach to improve industry competition (and thus keep inflation in check), we donít have the leverage in most industries.

Even more frustrating, most smartly run companies know this. Weíre at the point now where we have to subsidize companies to keep jobs here.

I actually genuinely feel bad for todayís politicians (even the crappy ones). They are bearing the brunt of economic policies from decades ago that are hard to undo in our globalized world. A good honest politician would struggle to find a solution here, let alone the clowns we have at the various levels of government right now.
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Old 03-09-2023, 12:45 PM   #5146
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I don't think it's impossible to prove. If companies are creating false scarcity and charging higher prices despite not paying increased wages or other associated costs, that's going to increase inflation faster than almost any government monetary policy.
Well its not like false scarcity was created overnight or even over a couple of years.

The nature of how Canada operates within certain industries like grocery chains or telecoms allows them to drive prices up and keep them high due to no competition or all their competition doing the same.

In my industry a lot of the companies move together on pricing as well, but because they have to compete with American or European companies who provide the same product, competition is much greater and prices are kept low, and even despite having gone up the past couple years, have now begun to come back down.

At this point there is no reason for a grocery chain to lower prices even if their costs WERE less.
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Old 03-09-2023, 12:46 PM   #5147
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Milk saw a big increase due to the fact that dairy producers received two increases last year. Eggs saw a big increase due to avian bird flu resulting in hundreds of thousands of chickens having to be culled. . Transportation costs are another factor due to the increase in the cost of energy as well as carbon taxes.

Those things are out of control of grocers.
While this is true, the supply management system and the fact that milk literally gets dumped if there is excess production contributes more to these cost increases than the cost of fuel going up, as one example.
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Old 03-09-2023, 12:54 PM   #5148
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The CPC would have a slam dunk majority if they publicly outed and shamed their socially regressive members.
Sure, but the party would fall apart. Usually the CPC is good at balancing the coalition, but events over the last 5 years have really shifted the Canadian electorate.
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Old 03-09-2023, 01:11 PM   #5149
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Kind of dry, but informative as to one the key components of current inflation rates. The world governments had to pay for the pandemic somehow and now, the world's people have to go through this bit of bump as a result.
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Old 03-09-2023, 02:40 PM   #5150
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Sure, but the party would fall apart. Usually the CPC is good at balancing the coalition, but events over the last 5 years have really shifted the Canadian electorate.
Would it? You have two choices as a political party - be adaptable so you can win elections or be ideological, stick to your values and lose the vast majority of elections.

The Liberals will adapt to whatever is popular at the time. They've been debt hawks, spending machines, nationalists, deregulators at various times in their history. They swing as society's values changes.

The (federal) NDP and Green party are ideological - winning an election isn't really the goal. They just want to push their values and influence on Canada's government. The NDP could possibly win a razor thin minority if absolutely everything went their way but its very unlikely.

The Conservatives were for most of their existence similar to the Liberals just on the right side of the spectrum. But they are slipping to the ideological party the more they embrace that side.

I suspect - yes - the current Conservative party support would split and perhaps the PPC becomes an NDP lite that wins the odd rural seat. But the Conservatives could pick up a ton of voters who are sick of the Liberals but aren't willing to vote for a party that supports their fringe.
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Old 03-09-2023, 04:26 PM   #5151
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How many social conservatives do people think are out there? And how many of them wouldn't turn up their nose and vote for a financially literate party?

I agree with Pete, the CPC would pick up a ton of voters, and the rest would probably vote PPC or something. They surely wouldn't vote Liberal or NDP.
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Old 03-09-2023, 05:29 PM   #5152
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Another example of free trade lowering prices?
Prices for beef in the store have not come down. They have gone up substantially.
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Old 03-09-2023, 06:05 PM   #5153
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I don't think it's impossible to prove. If companies are creating false scarcity and charging higher prices despite not paying increased wages or other associated costs, that's going to increase inflation faster than almost any government monetary policy.
Not really, if people run out of money to chase the goods then consumption drops and inflation does at well. People having less money reduces inflation regardless of the price of goods.

Claimping down on borrowing criteria for credit cards and lines of credit likely would have been another lower pain way of fighting inflation along with increasing taxation.
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Old 03-09-2023, 06:06 PM   #5154
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Prices for beef in the store have not come down. They have gone up substantially.
Lean ground beef has been $4 a pound on sale for quite a few years. Same with $11 /kg boneless skinless chicken breasts. Pork loins still $2 -$3 per pound.
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Old 03-09-2023, 06:16 PM   #5155
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Lean ground beef has been $4 a pound on sale for quite a few years. Same with $11 /kg boneless skinless chicken breasts. Pork loins still $2 -$3 per pound.
Lean ground beef is $7 per pound in all the stores. I have not seen it at $4 per pound for quite some time. Have you looked at the price of a decent roast recently?

Chicken and pork are cheaper...they were not affected by the drought.
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Old 03-09-2023, 07:42 PM   #5156
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I suspect - yes - the current Conservative party support would split and perhaps the PPC becomes an NDP lite that wins the odd rural seat. But the Conservatives could pick up a ton of voters who are sick of the Liberals but aren't willing to vote for a party that supports their fringe.
I wish this was true, and sometimes I believe it... but the cynic in me says that even if they made a legitimate and concerted effort to move materially to the center their opponents would still find a way, no matter how intellectually dishonest, to portray them as the same old social dinosaur party of extreme right bigots, and that that strategy would still work.

I'd still like to see them give it a shot, obviously, but instead they're giving us PP so I'm not optimistic it'll ever happen.
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Old 03-09-2023, 10:45 PM   #5157
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Not really, if people run out of money to chase the goods then consumption drops and inflation does at well. People having less money reduces inflation regardless of the price of goods.

Claimping down on borrowing criteria for credit cards and lines of credit likely would have been another lower pain way of fighting inflation along with increasing taxation.
Well that's part of the problem. Consumer debt in Canada is currently sitting at $2.36T. That feels like a massive house of cards.

https://www.consumer.equifax.ca/abou...redit-cards-1/
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Old 03-09-2023, 10:49 PM   #5158
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Lean ground beef is $7 per pound in all the stores. I have not seen it at $4 per pound for quite some time. Have you looked at the price of a decent roast recently?

Chicken and pork are cheaper...they were not affected by the drought.
Itís $3.50 per pound at sobeys right now

https://www.sobeys.com/en/flyer/

Which has been the same price for the last 5 years or so.

I donít buy high quality meat unless I am buying a cow. I Braise, stew, smoke, sous vide so donít have a feel for what a good roast goes for. The low end meats in my opinion arenít up more then the 10% average.

Where I find the biggest changes is the processed crap in the middle of the grocery store. Tons of shrinkflation and price increases. Chips went from $3 to $5. Someone has mention Cola being 3.50 now not on sale up from $2 a $2.50.
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Old 03-09-2023, 11:57 PM   #5159
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Personally, I donít think so. Farmers selling off cattle due to drought has sort of artificially kept the price of beef a bit lower than it should be (more supply than demand). We will see the price of beef increase dramatically over the next few years, because of the smaller herd sizes and slightly increased demand due to population increases.

I donít think you can pin it on free trade.
The original post that I quoted by redforever suggests otherwise. Did you read it?

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Prices for beef in the store have not come down. They have gone up substantially.
My post was a sarcastic ribbing on free trade
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Old 03-10-2023, 09:53 AM   #5160
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Itís $3.50 per pound at sobeys right now

https://www.sobeys.com/en/flyer/

Which has been the same price for the last 5 years or so.

I donít buy high quality meat unless I am buying a cow. I Braise, stew, smoke, sous vide so donít have a feel for what a good roast goes for. The low end meats in my opinion arenít up more then the 10% average.

Where I find the biggest changes is the processed crap in the middle of the grocery store. Tons of shrinkflation and price increases. Chips went from $3 to $5. Someone has mention Cola being 3.50 now not on sale up from $2 a $2.50.

If you go on-line as if you were shopping for lean ground beef, it is overf $14 per kg...which is $7 per lb.
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