Does Dube make the team?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Dube has been productive, and nobody is going to take that away from him. But when it comes to a 200 foot game and what they create and allow on the ice, I think both Mangiapane and Foo have been the better forwards to date in this camp.

By counts Mangiapane is 27-6 in on ice scoring chances in 37 minutes of ice time. Foo is 20-6. Coaches notice that kind of thing. Dube against the same opposition is 21-18.

May have to clean up his own end and the neutral zone in the AHL before he's ready.

These numbers are far too dependent on line-mates, opposition, and game situation, to provide much real information after only 3 games. Especially considering the volatility of pre-season. A couple shifts with a weaker defenseman that can't clear the zone, and you're wearing some scoring chances against.

I'll stick with watching them play. And from what I have seen, Dube and Mangiapane have both been solid, but I'll give a pretty clear and decisive nod to Dube so far, especially with his uptempo style of play. I have Foo a fairly distant 3rd at the moment.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Is that 5 on 5? I didn't watch the rookie games but I certainly didn't see those scoring chances against except when he was on the PK.

Yeah that's five on five.

Dube is the fourth worst on the team for scoring chances against per 60 minutes of ice time behind Robinson, Rychel and Ehliz.

Now to be fair, he's 6th on the team in generating chances per 60 minutes, but it's been a pattern in all of his games where it's fun hockey both ways when he's on the ice.

Foo has been very consistent, but hasn't piled up the points ... but it should be pointed out he hasn't had Dube or Mangiapane to work with.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by 868904

Great analysis Bingo and have to think that the coaches are aware of this. Dube is clearly ready to produce offense in the NHL, but needs work defensively and managing the game at the pro level. He needs to learn this stuff when he is young before they become habits that can't be broken. Bennett haters love comparing him to Yakupov, well you run the risk of Dube being a Yakupov if you rush him in to the NHL before he's learned all the defensive details.

There is no harm in having Dube start in the AHL and marinate a bit.

Yakupov was one dimensional at all levels. Dubé has proven his 200ft game already at every level he’s been at.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by transplant99

i think Dube starts in Stockton if for no other reason than he can get a ton of minutes in all situations, something that wont happen in Calgary.

He isnt supplanting any of the top 9 guys at this point so he would be making the team likely as the 13th or 14th forward....so do you want him watching from the press box at the dome or playing 20 minutes a night in the AHL against good competition?

Everyone agrees that he shouldn't be in the pressbox as the 13th or 14th forward. That simply won't happen, and I haven't seen anyone suggesting it or comfortable with it.

He makes it as the 12th forward, or he starts the season in Stockton.

[Geeoff]

I think the Flames are going to be in a situation where the 3rd and 4th lines are deployed about equally, so it's not gonna be a bad spot for Dube if he make it IMO

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

These numbers are far too dependent on line-mates, opposition, and game situation, to provide much real information after only 3 games. Especially considering the volatility of pre-season. A couple shifts with a weaker defenseman that can't clear the zone, and you're wearing some scoring chances against.

I'll stick with watching them play. And from what I have seen, Dube and Mangiapane have both been solid, but I'll give a pretty clear and decisive nod to Dube so far, especially with his uptempo style of play. I have Foo a fairly distant 3rd at the moment.

To each their own.

Seems like Peters saw it the same way as the numbers though. To have given up that many scoring chances against some of the weak rosters they've faced is a concern.

However he did do well last night against a much better Jets squad, so that's a good sign. Most of his damage was done against Riechel, Griffith and Perreault however.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Yakupov was one dimensional at all levels. Dubé has proven his 200ft game already at every level he’s been at.

Yeah, Dube has a very strong track record of solid defensive play at multiple levels, and was the most important defensive forward on the WJ team. Obviously that is not the same as the NHL, but he has proven that he is a smart player defensively.

Mangiapane does not have that same pedigree, though his 200ft game has improved substantially over the last 2 years in Stockton and he is now a solid player.

[Strange Brew]

That is what the AHL is basically there for. So guys like Dube and Mangiapane can round out their game. Good for Mangiapane if he has managed to do that in Stockton.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

To each their own.

Seems like Peters saw it the same way as the numbers though. To have given up that many scoring chances against some of the weak rosters they've faced is a concern.

However he did do well last night against a much better Jets squad, so that's a good sign. Most of his damage was done against Riechel, Griffith and Perreault however.

What are you basing this on? His post-game comment?

What I have seen from Peters so far with his player comments is to suggest criticisms for the guys that fans are praising, and praise the guys that fans aren't. I am not suggesting this is his only, or even primary motivation, I just think that he is trying to keep egos in check and keep everyone on an even keel and pushing.

Also, it is absolutely a fact that Dube has had a few bad, high risk plays in his own zone. And the coaching staff will have been all over him for them (as they should be).

But judging players' defensive play from counting stats in a small pre-season sample is something that I very much hope they are not doing.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

What are you basing this on? His post-game comment?

What I have seen from Peters so far with his player comments is to suggest criticisms for the guys that fans are praising, and praise the guys that fans aren't. I am not suggesting this is his only, or even primary motivation, I just think that he is trying to keep egos in check and keep everyone on an even keel and pushing.

Also, it is absolutely a fact that Dube has had a few bad, high risk plays in his own zone. And the coaching staff will have been all over him for them (as they should be).

But judging players' defensive play from counting stats in a small pre-season sample is something that I very much hope they are not doing.

That's life isn't it?

Hopefuls get into 3-5 preseason games if they are likely and a team has to make a decision based on that sample size. If a player is on the ice for a lot of chances against in those 3-5 games he may not be NHL ready. Or his linemates are boat anchoring him.

I think that's what they need to determine above all else.

[Mightyfire89]

Despite Dube’s production in this preseason, I’ve been much more impressed with Mangiapane’s hockey sense. The kid knows where to be and plays a smart game. I don’t see either one of them making the team out of camp, but at least one of the bottom 6 guys are going to underwhelm and they’ll get their chance, I’m sure.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

That is what the AHL is basically there for. So guys like Dube and Mangiapane can round out their game. Good for Mangiapane if he has managed to do that in Stockton.

Yes, that was my point. I think Mangiapane has shown, so far in camp, that he has really worked on his overall game, and has come a long way as a prospect. He has done what he was supposed to do in Stockton, and it's great to see.

Frankly, he has progressed more than I ever thought he would - a couple years ago, I had him pegged as a small guy that just didn't have the high level offense to overcome the lack of size and lack of defensive game.

I was wrong. He is showing that he might very well become an everyday NHLer

[Dion]

It's now becoming a question of where does Dube fit in the Flames lineup. In the short term it's on the wing until a spot at center is opened up for him.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Dube has been productive, and nobody is going to take that away from him. But when it comes to a 200 foot game and what they create and allow on the ice, I think both Mangiapane and Foo have been the better forwards to date in this camp.

By counts Mangiapane is 27-6 in on ice scoring chances in 37 minutes of ice time. Foo is 20-6. Coaches notice that kind of thing. Dube against the same opposition is 21-18.

May have to clean up his own end and the neutral zone in the AHL before he's ready.

To reinforce your excellent point, Todd Cordell posted something very similar this morning: https://hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-Cor...more/202/94903

Dube's 40% shooting percentage is likely unsustainable. Don't get me wrong. I love him and he is still a positive in terms of generating shot attempts, chances and high danger chances, but some time in the AHL probably wouldn't hurt.

I think it also weighs in Mangiapane's favour that he has two excellent AHL seasons behind him.

[Enoch Root]

This is the 2nd time you have tried to support the use of stats by reposting the same stats as 'proof' of the original point.

To the article: of course a 40% shooting percentage is unsustainable. But that doesn't negate that he played well and buried his chances.

Czarnik scored 3 goals on 3 shots last night for a totally unsustainable(!) 100% shooting percentage.

If we normalize that to a more reasonable 10%, he would have only scored 1/3 of a goal last night. So what is everyone getting excited about?

Stats are great. Until you lose sight of what it is you're trying to evaluate.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This is the 2nd time you have tried to support the use of stats by reposting the same stats as 'proof' of the original point.

To the article: of course a 40% shooting percentage is unsustainable. But that doesn't negate that he played well and buried his chances.

Czarnik scored 3 goals on 3 shots last night for a totally unsustainable(!) 100% shooting percentage.

If we normalize that to a more reasonable 10%, he would have only scored 1/3 of a goal last night. So what is everyone getting excited about?

Stats are great. Until you lose sight of what it is you're trying to evaluate.

I'm honestly not trying to be a wet blanket on Dube, I think he has a bright future.

But what the 40% shooting percentage and the underlying stats both say is that Dube has been pretty fortunate in the preseason to date and may not be the lock that everyone thinks he his.

Last night he didn't get anything done, but it was an odd game with a lot of penalties and it certainly seemed like the China group ran out of gas making the last half of the game sketchy.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This is the 2nd time you have tried to support the use of stats by reposting the same stats as 'proof' of the original point.

To the article: of course a 40% shooting percentage is unsustainable. But that doesn't negate that he played well and buried his chances.

Czarnik scored 3 goals on 3 shots last night for a totally unsustainable(!) 100% shooting percentage.

If we normalize that to a more reasonable 10%, he would have only scored 1/3 of a goal last night. So what is everyone getting excited about?

Stats are great. Until you lose sight of what it is you're trying to evaluate.

I'm sorry. I didn't realize all the stats in that article had already been discussed.

But I did not say proof, which is very different from reinforcement. I'm not proving anything. I was only trying to offer Todd Cordell's opinion, which I thought contained some new stats, which reinforced Bingo's opinion.

I don't feel like I've lost sight of what I'm trying to evaluate, which is the number of shot attempts, scoring chances and high danger scoring chances for and against with a player on the ice. Those are significant numbers to me and I really don't think the context - ice time, line mates and opposition - can negate the differences between Mangiapane and Dube at this point.

And to your point about shooting percentages, sure. Both are unsustainable. I don't understand how that relates to Mangiapane having a better 5 v 5 shot attempt, scoring chance and high danger scoring chance differential.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm honestly not trying to be a wet blanket on Dube, I think he has a bright future.

But what the 40% shooting percentage and the underlying stats both say is that Dube has been pretty fortunate in the preseason to date and may not be the lock that everyone thinks he his.

Last night he didn't get anything done, but it was an odd game with a lot of penalties and it certainly seemed like the China group ran out of gas making the last half of the game sketchy.

Absolutely not, and I hope I wasn't sounding like I think you were.

I just don't think that possession stats - in a 3-game, pre-season sample - can be made too much of. Highly dependent on who you're playing with and against.

The 40% shooting percentage is obviously high, and suggests things have gone well over the short number of games. But that's my point: the possession stats have to be considered with the same inapplicability, for lack of a better word. Stats simply aren't very useful in very small sample sizes.

They have both played well, and they are going to be judged on how they play as the pre-season ramps up towards regular-season intensity and quality. Regardless of any of the stats.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Absolutely not, and I hope I wasn't sounding like I think you were.

I just don't think that possession stats - in a 3-game, pre-season sample - can be made too much of. Highly dependent on who you're playing with and against.

The 40% shooting percentage is obviously high, and suggests things have gone well over the short number of games. But that's my point: the possession stats have to be considered with the same inapplicability, for lack of a better word. Stats simply aren't very useful in very small sample sizes.

They have both played well, and they are going to be judged on how they play as the pre-season ramps up towards regular-season intensity and quality. Regardless of any of the stats.

Agreed 100%

That's why I find Ty Rattie mania in Edmonton so funny, because I've always tossed the first half of the preseason aside and ignored it from history. I've seen too many Saprykin-Tkachuk-Fata dominating as a line, or Chuck Kobasew lighting the lamp early stories to get too excited about any one in the first week to ten days.

The team has four games left and I would guess Mangiapane and Dube will get into two or three each. The one that can create with fourth line minutes without getting owned in their own zone will make the team.

I agree on sample size for sure, but that's the size that they're using to make decisions, and right now Mangiapane against similar opposition has avoided getting in any trouble defensively.

[mennoknight]

does everyone remember how excited we were by the Bennett-Brouwer combo that tore it up a couple pre-seasons ago? people need to cool the heck off.