American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[ResAlien]

That’s far less exciting though. Gotta spice up this thread so we go with USA Today the leader in approval rating polling.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Shocking that a President that basically no one was enthusiastic about sees his approval rating drop once the shine of being not-Trump wears off a bit.

That said, it seems a bit odd to conflate the approval rating in a single USA Today poll with historical Gallup ratings. Why not use Biden's 48% approval from Ipsos or his 48% from CNN last week? Even Republican-leaning Rasmussun has Biden at 44%. In aggregate polling, his drop hasn't been quite so dramatic, starting at ~53-54% and now dropping to ~43%.

I understand the USA's poll is different than Gallup, I never stated they were the same.

CNN's poll just came out and reported on literally an hour ago.

https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showth...mp#post6192010

Gallup was the one used traditionally quoted on CP to show how poor Trump's approval ratings were. Not sure why it's not ok to use now, simply because another poll or two show Biden higher? You had no issues with it prior when Trump was involved.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/

This aggregate poll report was presented prior as well to show how poor Trump did throughout, Biden is still at only 42.8% right now. Ipsos and CNN are seen as poorer polls (and this doesn't have Gallup's most recent numbers either).

Use whatever poll you want to cherry pick to fit whatever narrative you wish, Biden's numbers are rather poor no matter method you use, and very similar to Trump's a year into his term. There's no need to sugarcoat his fall, what matters is fixing it for Democrats.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Firebot

I understand the USA's poll is different than Gallup, I never stated they were the same.

CNN's poll just came out and reported on literally an hour ago.

https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showth...mp#post6192010

Gallup was the one used traditionally quoted on CP to show how poor Trump's approval ratings were. Not sure why it's not ok to use now, simply because another poll or two show Biden higher? You had no issues with it prior when Trump was involved.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...proval-rating/

This aggregate poll report was presented prior as well to show how poor Trump did throughout, Biden is still at only 42.8% right now. Ipsos and CNN are seen as poorer polls (and this doesn't have Gallup's most recent numbers either).

Use whatever poll you want to cherry pick to fit whatever narrative you wish, Biden's numbers are rather poor no matter method you use, and very similar to Trump's a year into his term. There's no need to sugarcoat his fall, what matters is fixing it for Democrats.

Maybe I missed something but it doesn't appear like anybody was suggesting the Gallup poll was the problem.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Thank Sinema and Manchin. Joe campaigned hard on being a deal maker, reaching across the aisle, let’s get back to normal. Instead two jackass allegedly Democrat senators have held everything he wanted to do hostage or have made it so watered down it may as well not pass at all, making him appear utterly useless and incompetent.

As much as I dislike the Republican Party can you imagine a world where they have 51 votes in the senate, a majority in the house, and get dick all done because of a couple holdout aholes are flexing on the entire party? They’d literally murder them.

Both Sinema and Manchin are hanging on to power by a thread and narrowly won their states. Manchin lost heavy ground to Republicans and needs to be more moderate to taper the red surge in W Virginia, while Sinema is just being Sinema and is a wolf in sheep's clothing playing both sides.

They aren't the Democrats biggest problem (well I guess Sinema sure as heck is a problem), removing them and putting more progressive Democrats instead and both states are lost to Republican senators most likely.

[ResAlien]

So I’m clear you think the good plan for them is to sabotage democrats, hopefully win re-election, further erode public confidence in the party, and continue to sabotage democrats because if they don’t then republicans who will sabotage democrats will win instead?

It’s brilliant. I see why democrats can’t help but stomp on their own dicks constantly.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Maybe I missed something but it doesn't appear like anybody was suggesting the Gallup poll was the problem.

People can dismiss the USA Today one if they wish to see it as a lesser poll and have issue with that poll being brought up, but the Gallup poll has always been traditionally used.

Bringing up CNN or Ipsos as counters to Biden's recent approval numbers, both of which aren't seen as strong polls, doesn't challenge or counter Gallup's poll results, when CNN uses Gallup numbers for reporting and editorials as well.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/25/polit...oll/index.html

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Firebot

People can dismiss the USA Today one if they wish to see it as a lesser poll and have issue with that poll being brought up, but the Gallup poll has always been traditionally used.

Bringing up CNN or Ipsos as counters to Biden's recent approval numbers, both of which aren't seen as strong polls, doesn't challenge or counter Gallup's poll results, when CNN uses Gallup numbers for reporting and editorials as well.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/25/polit...oll/index.html

Again, I'm not sure CNN or Ipsos were brought up as counter to Gallup, or that your use of the Gallup poll was questioned at all.

The question was why USA Today, which has a pretty depressed rating comparatively, and not CNN or Ipsos or even the aggregate (since you were comparing it to the Gallup, which is different).

Basically the comment is that it was odd you didn't just use the most recent Gallup poll, and that even in not doing so you chose USA Today of all choices.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

So I’m clear you think the good plan for them is to sabotage democrats, hopefully win re-election, further erode public confidence in the party, and continue to sabotage democrats because if they don’t then republicans who will sabotage democrats will win instead?

It’s brilliant. I see why democrats can’t help but stomp on their own dicks constantly.

Manchin is literally the only democrat in the world in the world who could win in West Virginia. The other West Virginia senate election was like 70-30 for the Republicans.

You just thank the lord he won so you can pass anything.

They passed the infrastructure bill last week. At this point (although obviously subject to change) - seems likely they'll pass the economic bill soon. Its obviously been neutered but getting both of those passed will be a big win for Biden and the democrats.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

So I’m clear you think the good plan for them is to sabotage democrats, hopefully win re-election, further erode public confidence in the party, and continue to sabotage democrats because if they don’t then republicans who will sabotage democrats will win instead?

It’s brilliant. I see why democrats can’t help but stomp on their own dicks constantly.

It's quite the conandrum!

At least right now they have the illusion of power and can still pass things should they wish. It may be a good idea for Democrats to go a little more moderate to get their buy in or a moderate Republican or two that can be swayed.

[ResAlien]

*head explodes in rubecube*

More moderate? Welp we’re hooped.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Again, I'm not sure CNN or Ipsos were brought up as counter to Gallup, or that your use of the Gallup poll was questioned at all.

The question was why USA Today, which has a pretty depressed rating comparatively, and not CNN or Ipsos or even the aggregate (since you were comparing it to the Gallup, which is different).

Basically the comment is that it was odd you didn't just use the most recent Gallup poll, and that even in not doing so you chose USA Today of all choices.

Suffolk (which is who handles USA Today's poll) is rated better and weighted higher then CNN / Ipsos.

USA Today's article happened to be the most recent and first article I stumbled upon, and I appended it with Gallup's polls. There's no underhanded motive to chose it, that's all it was.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Firebot

It's quite the conandrum!

At least right now they have the illusion of power and can still pass things should they wish. It may be a good idea for Democrats to go a little more moderate to get their buy in or a moderate Republican or two that can be swayed.

Those don't exist

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

*head explodes in rubecube*

More moderate? Welp we’re hooped.

What we really need is republicans and then, on the other side, more republicans.

That will solve everything!

[photon]

The decrease doesn't seem that unusual, it's just he started lower than is historical. That might just be another consequence of an ever more partisan system?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Firebot

It's quite the conandrum!

At least right now they have the illusion of power and can still pass things should they wish. It may be a good idea for Democrats to go a little more moderate to get their buy in or a moderate Republican or two that can be swayed.

The problem isn't a lack of buy-in from Republicans. It's that Democrats have done nothing to energize the voters they already have under their tent. Neutering BBB isn't going to help matters.

If you're a young, progressive or working class voter, there's just nothing that Biden and Co. are getting done that's going to appeal to you or materially improve your life, so why bother? These people aren't necessarily going to vote Republican; they're just going to give up on the system entirely.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by rubecube

The problem isn't a lack of buy-in from Republicans. It's that Democrats have done nothing to energize the voters they already have under their tent. Neutering BBB isn't going to help matters.

If you're a young, progressive or working class voter, there's just nothing that Biden and Co. are getting done that's going to appeal to you or materially improve your life, so why bother? These people aren't necessarily going to vote Republican; they're just going to give up on the system entirely.

Yup. The only reason Biden won was that progressives were extremely motivated to get rid of trump, it was his job to keep them motivated so they could gain some senate seats in 2022 and actually be able to get #### done then. He's failed miserably at that, and now Republicans are going to take back the senate and maybe the house as well. He won't be the worst, but Biden's legacy may be as the most ineffectual president in US history

[dobbles]

Originally Posted by rubecube

The problem isn't a lack of buy-in from Republicans. It's that Democrats have done nothing to energize the voters they already have under their tent. Neutering BBB isn't going to help matters.

If you're a young, progressive or working class voter, there's just nothing that Biden and Co. are getting done that's going to appeal to you or materially improve your life, so why bother? These people aren't necessarily going to vote Republican; they're just going to give up on the system entirely.

Devils advocate here.... Shouldn't that young progressive realize that while dems might not be coming through like they should that the republican party represents the antithesis of their position and turning apathetic is giving up any hope of anything you believe in?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Yup. The only reason Biden won was that progressives were extremely motivated to get rid of trump, it was his job to keep them motivated so they could gain some senate seats in 2022 and actually be able to get #### done then. He's failed miserably at that, and now Republicans are going to take back the senate and maybe the house as well. He won't be the worst, but Biden's legacy may be as the most ineffectual president in US history

The Congressional Progressive Caucus also deserves some heat for folding like a cheap suit on infrastructure without getting any meaningful concessions.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by dobbles

Devils advocate here.... Shouldn't that young progressive realize that while dems might not be coming through like they should that the republican party represents the antithesis of their position and turning apathetic is giving up any hope of anything you believe in?

Probably, but when you constantly promise better outcomes for people and fail to deliver, you can't be all that surprised when they lose faith in you and stop showing up. Continuously just trying to be the lesser of two evils isn't exactly a motivating platform.

EDIT: The Democrats have also had a bad habit of consistently portraying the the GOP as an existential threat, and then continuing watered down versions of GOP policies once they obtain power.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by dobbles

Devils advocate here.... Shouldn't that young progressive realize that while dems might not be coming through like they should that the republican party represents the antithesis of their position and turning apathetic is giving up any hope of anything you believe in?

“Vote for us because even though we suck and won’t reflect your values the other guys suck even worse” is a terrible voter motivation technique and only leads to disenchantment. Then old moderates will whine that the progressives and young don’t vote, the cycle perpetuates, and the US continues its march further and further right.