Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Tron_fdc]

Thought I would give this a little bump.

I have had 3 different properties for sale throughout the year. Sold one (same price I paid in 2007) and nothing on the other 2. I was griping about it in the Real Estate forum.

Anyone have any opinions? I know 2 other colleagues that are having trouble selling as well. Contrary to what I'm seeing and hearing, I'm beginning to think that the market isn't nearly as strong as it's portrayed to be.

Stats for those interested:

http://www.creb.com/

I also have property in the US (Arizona) and I've supposedly made about a 20% gain on it over the last year or so. I work in the US quite a bit and have heard the same across a lot of the Western US states. Lots of speculators coming back on line from what I can tell as well.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/us-...housing-bubble

Is the bubble building back up?

I'm dumping everything I own right now (except the house I'm in) and will be watching this one from the sidelines. If I learned anything the last 5 years is that it sucks to be a landlord, and paying 5 mortgages yourself is a gigantic waste of capital. I'd rather buy a boat and watch it depreciate than a house and rent it to crackheads.....

[Red]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

Thought I would give this a little bump.

I have had 3 different properties for sale throughout the year. Sold one (same price I paid in 2007) and nothing on the other 2. I was griping about it in the Real Estate forum.

Anyone have any opinions? I know 2 other colleagues that are having trouble selling as well. Contrary to what I'm seeing and hearing, I'm beginning to think that the market isn't nearly as strong as it's portrayed to be.

Stats for those interested:

http://www.creb.com/

I also have property in the US (Arizona) and I've supposedly made about a 20% gain on it over the last year or so. I work in the US quite a bit and have heard the same across a lot of the Western US states. Lots of speculators coming back on line from what I can tell as well.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/us-...housing-bubble

Is the bubble building back up?

I'm dumping everything I own right now (except the house I'm in) and will be watching this one from the sidelines. If I learned anything the last 5 years is that it sucks to be a landlord, and paying 5 mortgages yourself is a gigantic waste of capital. I'd rather buy a boat and watch it depreciate than a house and rent it to crackheads.....

It must be the newer houses that are really moving, cause I am seeing little action in the older neighbourhoods. But I am not in the industry, just an ovservant.
Plus the recent surge was somewhat tied to the mortgage rates going up, people wanted to secure their lower rates so they rushed out to buy.

[CaptainYooh]

The markets are widely unstable worldwide. One day it's all rosy, next day it's all gloomy. Confidence is low. Add to all this the mortgage rates creeping up steadily. Real estate market is not healthy yet. Calgary is a bit of an exception to the general trend, because there still are jobs here and people are coming. But I don't see a hot real estate market in our future for quite awhile.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Add to all this the mortgage rates creeping up steadily.

Are they? Rates have been low for a long time.

[CaptainYooh]

Yes, they still are reasonably low and affordable; but they've been going up at all major banks. They are doing it very quietly, a few bps per raise. Check the 5-yr rate for the past 10 months, you'll see.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stor...age-rates.html

[CaptainYooh]

I mean, take it in perspective, the discounted 5-yr rate is still 3.6-3.8% at Schedule 1 lenders, which is an excellent rate. But... It was close to 2.8% 8-9 months ago.

[Red]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

I mean, take it in perspective, the discounted 5-yr rate is still 3.6-3.8% at Schedule 1 lenders, which is an excellent rate. But... It was close to 2.8% 8-9 months ago.

But you qualify at a posted 5 year. That's over 5% now.

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by Red

But you qualify at a posted 5 year. That's over 5% now.

Not true. If you are getting a 5 year fixed at 3.59, that's the rate you qualify with. If its less than 5 years or a variable, you have to qualify at the benchmark rate (5.34)

[Red]

Ross Kay - an ex realtor is onto these "great" sales numbers.
Garth T has a write up on it too.

http://www.rosskay.com
http://www.greaterfool.ca

Interesting stuff to say the least.

"But did sales really surge 27.5% year/year last month (Calgary)?

“No way,” says Kay, who has just finished a board-by-board audit of published stats. “This is false reporting, because the very nature of what’s being counted has changed.”

At the heart of it is a federal Competition Bureau ruling that private sales can appear co-mingled with broker sales in MLS numbers, since companies like ComFree now list on the realtor system, while PropertyGuys runs mirror listings through registered brokers. The result – a growing number of sales in Canada are classified as private transactions, but appear in real estate board numbers. That’s cool. A sale is a sale. But what’s misleading is that this year’s numbers (including private sales) are being compared with last year’s deals (that don’t).

Says Kay: “If CREB removes the 317 private sales in August not similarly counted last August, total sales are really up 14.24%, not 27.5%. And removing private sales from listing means there are only 6,447 active listing snow – a 28.17% decrease."

"The house at 231 9th Ave. NW is being sold privately by Lisa Evers for $1,850,000. The listing is here. But it’s also listed by Re/Max Real Estate (Central) on MLS, for $1,795,000. That listing is here. When it sells (good luck, Lisa!) it will be added into CREB’s list of MLS transactions completed, and contrasted with the same number last year, when private sales were not counted.

By the way, removing private sales, comparing apples-to-apples, Calgary sales for the year to date are 18,589, not the 21,733 reported. That’s a year/year decrease of 5.92% – a far cry from the 10.17% increase claimed by CREB. “The only reason prices have increased in Calgary,” says Kay, “as is true in every other city where they’ve climbed, is historically-low listing inventory, even as demand for homes falls.”

[Tron_fdc]

^^^^ WTF? I would loooooove to have one of the forum realtors weigh in on that, because if it's true my opinion on the CREB just went into the abyss.

THat certainly explains a lot to me.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

^^^^ WTF? I would loooooove to have one of the forum realtors weigh in on that, because if it's true my opinion on the CREB just went into the abyss.

THat certainly explains a lot to me.

Surprised that you 'just' thought that CREB went into the abyss. The whole industry is geared towards presenting numbers and stats in a favorable way to make people feel like they should always be buying and selling every so often to 'climb the property ladder' and avoid 'missing out.' Buy now or buy never!

Seriously, if the real estate industry was regulated in the way that the financial industry is, then a lot of the 'return on investment' calculations that condo sellers put out would land them big fines or put them in jail.

[Travis Munroe]

"But did sales really surge 27.5% year/year last month (Calgary)?

“No way,” says Kay, who has just finished a board-by-board audit of published stats. “This is false reporting, because the very nature of what’s being counted has changed.”

At the heart of it is a federal Competition Bureau ruling that private sales can appear co-mingled with broker sales in MLS numbers, since companies like ComFree now list on the realtor system, while PropertyGuys runs mirror listings through registered brokers. The result – a growing number of sales in Canada are classified as private transactions, but appear in real estate board numbers. That’s cool. A sale is a sale. But what’s misleading is that this year’s numbers (including private sales) are being compared with last year’s deals (that don’t).

Says Kay: “If CREB removes the 317 private sales in August not similarly counted last August, total sales are really up 14.24%, not 27.5%. And removing private sales from listing means there are only 6,447 active listing snow – a 28.17% decrease."

"The house at 231 9th Ave. NW is being sold privately by Lisa Evers for $1,850,000. The listing is here. But it’s also listed by Re/Max Real Estate (Central) on MLS, for $1,795,000. That listing is here. When it sells (good luck, Lisa!) it will be added into CREB’s list of MLS transactions completed, and contrasted with the same number last year, when private sales were not counted.
Why wouldnt it be added to the list of transactions? It is listed with an agent at my office and although there is a chance the owner does sell on her own, the odds are that the realtor sells it. While not 100%, I remember hearing that welists numbers on total sales included those who were with them and then moved onto a realtor who sold the property.

By the way, removing private sales, comparing apples-to-apples, Calgary sales for the year to date are 18,589, not the 21,733 reported. That’s a year/year decrease of 5.92% – a far cry from the 10.17% increase claimed by CREB. “The only reason prices have increased in Calgary,” says Kay, “as is true in every other city where they’ve climbed, is historically-low listing inventory, even as demand for homes falls.”
This is also gimmicky and I would love to see the numbers this author used. Private sales? BS.... IMO welist and comfree are not a private sale as they used to be. They are put on the MLS system by a licensed realtor and then in most cases it is a realtor who brings them a buyer. Most of these listings also offer standard commissions to a buyers agent.

I see where the writer is coming from with inflated stats however I don't believe he is painting as clear of a picture as some may think.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

Seriously, if the real estate industry was regulated in the way that the financial industry is, then a lot of the 'return on investment' calculations that condo sellers put out would land them big fines or put them in jail.

The financial industry is regulated? Seems like a free-for-all to me.

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

Surprised that you 'just' thought that CREB went into the abyss. The whole industry is geared towards presenting numbers and stats in a favorable way to make people feel like they should always be buying and selling every so often to 'climb the property ladder' and avoid 'missing out.' Buy now or buy never!

Seriously, if the real estate industry was regulated in the way that the financial industry is, then a lot of the 'return on investment' calculations that condo sellers put out would land them big fines or put them in jail.

I guess I just assumed a professional organization that represents an industry with hundreds of millions of dollars in transactions would be a little more clear on their market assessments. Lesson learned!

It's going to be interesting to see how it's spun next year when all the stats catch up to them though. They were artificially inflated, but it's a 12 month cycle from when it was first done until you see them roll into themselves. What then?

Just another reason for me to dump everything right now.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

I guess I just assumed a professional organization that represents an industry with hundreds of millions of dollars in transactions would be a little more clear on their market assessments. Lesson learned!

It's going to be interesting to see how it's spun next year when all the stats catch up to them though. They were artificially inflated, but it's a 12 month cycle from when it was first done until you see them roll into themselves. What then?

Just another reason for me to dump everything right now.

Revised HPI Index

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by troutman

The financial industry is regulated? Seems like a free-for-all to me.

When it comes to presenting financial data to prospective investors, it most certainly is more regimented and regulated. Below is an example of promotional material a condo seller can put out that a mutual fund cannot because it is grossly misleading:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-content...AMB.png?8f4c78

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by troutman

The financial industry is regulated? Seems like a free-for-all to me.

You just undermined the work I do pretty much all day, every day.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

I see where the writer is coming from with inflated stats however I don't believe he is painting as clear of a picture as some may think.

What do you mean?

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

When it comes to presenting financial data to prospective investors, it most certainly is more regimented and regulated. Below is an example of promotional material a condo seller can put out that a mutual fund cannot because it is grossly misleading:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-content...AMB.png?8f4c78

Fair enough.

[Travis Munroe]

Sorry, wasnt very clear....he speaks of actual sales numbers not being what they are due to "private" sales now being counted.
What defines a private sale today is different in that someone might claim to have sold their home on their own using the MLS system and offering a commission to a realtor where as a couple years ago a private sale meant no MLS use.