Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

Bridgeland is where people go when they can't afford the East Village, the gun towers need to point the other way.

And I also don't get the green text and rolly-eyes. I think the East Village is going to be awesome, and as someone who lives nearby I can't wait until it starts to build up. I thought the vision of having brand new condos full of vagrants after we just knocked down houses full of vagrants was sort of funny. Apparently you find vagrants serious business...

Green text and rolly eyes indicate that nothing was serious business.

I really hope East Village grows as planned, I'm excited with pretty much all of the annoncements and developments thus far. The only worry with massive redevelopments like this would be whether Calgary goes into one of those resource busts at the same time East village is half complete. At that point a lot of the anchor businesses that located there might find they cannot work with different expected growth and residents in the area and creates a cycle much like the predicted one in Toronto.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

If the government banned foreign real estate investment I wonder if it would deflate the bubble in Vancouver.

Foreign investment is playing a role and most definately fueling the fire, but I seriously doubt it's the sole driver towards high prices in Vancouver. The number of domestic transactions are still much higher than foriegn in that market. I think it's more of a bandwagon effect where everyone falls for the assumption that prices will escalate above inflation forever and the middle class proceeds to jump in with both feet and with high leverage driven by both fear and greed.

Fear in the sense that they feel now is the time to get into a property before prices rise so much that they will never be able to buy. Greed in a sense where they look to the property market to supplement stagnant incomes (BC is the only province to have a negative savings rate, meaning it's not just rich Chinese that are plowing everything into Real Estate). It's the belief that riding the property wave is the only way to get ahead. Below is an example of the herd mentality surrounding Real Estate. The person's actual financial problem is that they only make $35,000 a year. He's trying to remedy this by house speculation:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...rticle2357155/

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

Green text and rolly eyes indicate that nothing was serious business.

The only worry with massive redevelopments like this would be whether Calgary goes into one of those resource busts at the same time East village is half complete.

I get pretty anxious about that too. I want to see these things fire up as soon as possible. The remaining parcels in the Bridges are a good example of what bad timing will do. Once they are built, if the bottom falls out, it sucks for the developer, but at least the places will sell and they will get lived in and the neighbourhood will start to see bodies on the streets.

At least the Hilton should be more or less of a shoe-in as I think we are short on hotel space in the core. Cantos and the Library can't happen soon enough. Hurry! Build! Build!

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

If the government banned foreign real estate investment I wonder if it would deflate the bubble in Vancouver.

You mean if the government banned immigration. And yes, that would likely deflate Canada's economy as a whole.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

You mean if the government banned immigration. And yes, that would likely deflate Canada's economy as a whole.

Who suggested banning immigration? The obvious intent is to ban someone residing in another country from sitting on a property they never live in.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by nik-

Who suggested banning immigration? The obvious intent is to ban someone residing in another country from sitting on a property they never live in.

I don't think this is the message that we want to send about investment in Canada. It's not like investors in other countries are soley responsible or even primarily responsible for pricing out local home buyers. They are merely small participants in the grand scheme of all transactions. They are being used as a scapegoat for our own obsession with owning Real Estate at all costs. Ownership rates in Canada are at an all time high of 70%. That's the biggest reason for the price appreciation.

[macker]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

I don't think this is the message that we want to send about investment in Canada. It's not like investors in other countries are soley responsible or even primarily responsible for pricing out local home buyers. They are merely small participants in the grand scheme of all transactions. They are being used as a scapegoat for our own obsession with owning Real Estate at all costs. Ownership rates in Canada are at an all time high of 70%. That's the biggest reason for the price appreciation.

And US home ownership recently hit a 15 year low.
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/hom...to-15-year-low

Lucky that so many Canadians are buying Stateside to stabilize things to a certain degree. At 23% Canadians are the largest foreign buyers in the close to $80 Billion of foreign US RE sales per year.

[Skyceman]

Mortgage arrears rate highest in Alberta

The mortgage arrears rate in Alberta is by far the highest in the country, according to the CIBC Household Credit Analysis report released Wednesday.

“This reflects the fact that, on average, homeowners in Alberta are younger and less established,” said the report authored by Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets. “As well, the pre-recession period in Alberta had seen activity surging rapidly — leading to a higher percentage of consumers overextending themselves to speculative investment activity and excess.”

“While the majority of Canadians appear to be well-positioned to absorb a rate increase of around two percentage points, there is a substantial minority that cannot,” said Fong. “According to the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, roughly 21 per cent of current mortgage holders, equating to roughly 1.2 million mortgages in Canada, may face financial difficulties with such an increase.”

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...#ixzz1uX6SsC4q

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by macker

And US home ownership recently hit a 15 year low.
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/hom...to-15-year-low

Lucky that so many Canadians are buying Stateside to stabilize things to a certain degree. At 23% Canadians are the largest foreign buyers in the close to $80 Billion of foreign US RE sales per year.

When I was in PHx last time the cab driver told me Canadian's saved his house, and kept food n the table for his kids. He'll never forget that.

I think we stopped the housing crisis there long enough for it to start stabilizing or at least leveling. When I was there a month ago prices were actually on the rise in some areas for the first time in years.

[seattleflamer]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

When I was in PHx last time the cab driver told me Canadian's saved his house, and kept food n the table for his kids. He'll never forget that.

I think we stopped the housing crisis there long enough for it to start stabilizing or at least leveling. When I was there a month ago prices were actually on the rise in some areas for the first time in years.

Spare me the pseudo-altruism. Canadians should be content enough that they're savvy to buy RE at prices far less than replacement value and a few hours plane ride from -20 to +25 in the middle of February.

In bygone era in US history, this would be called "carpet bagging".

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

When I was in PHx last time the cab driver told me Canadian's saved his house, and kept food n the table for his kids. He'll never forget that.

I think we stopped the housing crisis there long enough for it to start stabilizing or at least leveling. When I was there a month ago prices were actually on the rise in some areas for the first time in years.

I actually laughed out loud at this

[darklord700]

Is there a way to find a list of all the grow op houses in Calgary? Thanks.

This CHR's website only goes back to 2009.

http://www.calgaryhealthregion.ca/pu...lgary_zone.htm

[ah123]

Originally Posted by darklord700

Is there a way to find a list of all the grow op houses in Calgary? Thanks.

This CHR's website only goes back to 2009.

http://www.calgaryhealthregion.ca/pu...lgary_zone.htm

Try this:

http://www.calgaryhealthregion.ca/pu...legal_drug.htm

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by ah123

Try this:

http://www.calgaryhealthregion.ca/pu...legal_drug.htm

Thanks. But it also only goes back to 2009.

This site has a list that goes back to 2004 but I'm not sure if it is complete.

http://talkcalgary.com/Calgary_grow_ops.htm

[troutman]

http://www.creb.com/public/seller-re...statistics.php

Total sales in April up 26% from 2011, and 33% for the first part of May. Year to date up 15%.

[darklord700]

Luxury home sales booming in Calgary - Sales over $1 million highest since 2007

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...744/story.html

From my own research, it seems like houses from $700K are selling easier than houses below $500K.

You can go to this website and see what houses had been CSed. The semi luxury houses are selling like hot cakes.
http://monikafurtado.com/search-the-nw.html

[Red]

Originally Posted by darklord700

Luxury home sales booming in Calgary - Sales over $1 million highest since 2007

http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...744/story.html

From my own research, it seems like houses from $700K are selling easier than houses below $500K.

You can go to this website and see what houses had been CSed. The semi luxury houses are selling like hot cakes.
http://monikafurtado.com/search-the-nw.html

Must be all those rich Asians that left Vancouver…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/vancouvers-real-estate-swoon-deepens/article2433053/

[calgaryrocks]

good, the 500k range houses need to not go up very much for two years, so that I can save up enough for a downpayment! luxury homes can sell like hotcakes, good news for the economy

[bomba]

Three cheers for Alberta!

http://www.thestar.com/business/arti...wth-in-2012-13

[Red]

Some industry news.

Greenboro Homes appears to be going under.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/Unity+Builders+Group+seeks+creditor+protection/6646661/story.html


Mortgage Brokers not in agreement with the OSFI on new mortgage rules.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/mortgage-brokers-warn-about-new-refinancing-rules/article2439205/