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Old 07-06-2020, 02:55 PM   #501
blankall
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The other factor is testing. The US is now a testing leader. As you test better you get a lower Death rate. If you say that deaths lag cases by two weeks than the US death rate. So if you go back two weeks they had 30000 cases diagnosed and yesterday had 250 deaths. If deaths lag cases by three weeks it’s more like 20,000 tests on 250 deaths.

These numbers could solely be explained by increased testing and a .5% death rate. I agree though that the lowering of the average age of infection also contributes to a reduced death rate.
I think there are a just a lot of people in Florida catching it. Too many to be explained just by increased testing. One thing the weather does do is allow people to protect themselves easier. The elderly can stay in their homes and control who goes in and out. Meanwhile, they are less likely to catch it when they do leave their homes. People are also more aware, and precautions around care homes are much improved.

Ironically, it does get a bit more complex. In places like Florida, the weather gets so hot, that people may spend more time indoors, as they require air conditioning. But once again, the transmission between buildings is less likely.

I do think we may see some slight uptick in deaths in the next 1-2 weeks, where you're seeing 100 or so dead a day. I do not see it going the way of NY where it gets to 1000, at least not before fall hits. We will have to wait another 1-2 weeks to be sure. However, like I said before, it's now been 3 weeks since things appeared to surge in Florida, and no significant increase in deaths.
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Old 07-06-2020, 04:23 PM   #502
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130 new cases over the last 3 days in Alberta
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Old 07-06-2020, 04:31 PM   #503
GGG
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June 1-7 170
June 8-14 - 255 - 55% growth
June 15-21 288 - 8% growth
June 22-28 319 - 10.7% growth
June 29 - July 5 323 - 1.2% growth

Our first flat week since re-opening. Hopefully we keep it up

Last edited by GGG; 07-06-2020 at 04:57 PM.
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Old 07-06-2020, 04:41 PM   #504
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Originally Posted by blankall View Post
I think there are a just a lot of people in Florida catching it. Too many to be explained just by increased testing. One thing the weather does do is allow people to protect themselves easier. The elderly can stay in their homes and control who goes in and out. Meanwhile, they are less likely to catch it when they do leave their homes. People are also more aware, and precautions around care homes are much improved.

Ironically, it does get a bit more complex. In places like Florida, the weather gets so hot, that people may spend more time indoors, as they require air conditioning. But once again, the transmission between buildings is less likely.

I do think we may see some slight uptick in deaths in the next 1-2 weeks, where you're seeing 100 or so dead a day. I do not see it going the way of NY where it gets to 1000, at least not before fall hits. We will have to wait another 1-2 weeks to be sure. However, like I said before, it's now been 3 weeks since things appeared to surge in Florida, and no significant increase in deaths.
We are hearing concerns about Florida and Texas Hospital and ICU capacities. Since Hospital utilization is up it means deaths should follow unless the therapeutic interventions are working better than before. If therapeutics are working better than the Death rate wont spike until we bed shortages.

I was digging around for numbers of beds and found this site

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABIC...l=y&%3Aembed=y

This shows that Florida has about 25% of its Hospital beds left and 20% of its ICU space. These numbers though are meaning less in a vacuum as what we’d want to look for a an decrease in capacity and I can’t find a way to pull old data.
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