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Old 05-24-2021, 04:31 PM   #21
Jiri Hrdina
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Originally Posted by Swayze11 View Post
Sorry I must be misunderstanding. Why are we skipping the Seattle pick?

The mapping should include the Seattle pick. Does Seattle have bumped odds that I am unaware of? If not, how do you take Seattle out of the website?
Yes Seattle has bumped odds - at 20.5% for the 1st which is the same as the 4th slot. So whoever maps to Seattle would be getting higher than normal odds.
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Old 05-24-2021, 04:34 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Flickered Flame View Post
I haven't played around with it but would something like this work? You can set the weighting for each team or customize it. Not sure if it would work, just trying to help find a solution.

https://www.draftpicklottery.com/index.php
I'd have to play around with it.
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Old 05-24-2021, 04:37 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Goffie View Post
I really dislike these sites, I agree with Doug that it is a lot more frequent than not that a late team comes up and grabs the top pick. I play around with this site a bit and rarely do the top 3 teams win the lottery. For example I did 15 simulations and reset after each one and one of the top two teams only won once.

I do understand the coyote dilemma however as that makes it tough for us to do anything but use a simulator.

It’s a tough year for sure.
I've played with them and don't find that. Buffalo should get a top 2 pick about a third of the time, and that's about what I get.
Open to other suggestions

Last edited by Jiri Hrdina; 05-24-2021 at 04:45 PM.
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Old 05-24-2021, 04:56 PM   #24
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I just did 30 sims to get a sense of this.
- Buffalo got the 1st 23% of the time (actual odds 16.6%) and a top 2 30% of the time (actual odds 31.6%)
- Anaheim got the 1st 10% of the time (actual odds 12%) and a top 2 27% of the time (actual odds 24%) of the time.

Nearly 3/4s of the time it should be a team other than the last 2 overall teams getting the top pick. So it may seem like the bottom teams aren't getting the top picks as much as they should, but that's the reality of the lottery as the NHL has designed it.
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Old 05-24-2021, 05:03 PM   #25
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Default Draft lottery - change in process

I am ok with anyway we decide to proceed and no way is perfect. We can only use the tools we are given.

Im sure the site is weighted correctly. I just have a tendency to see lower lotto teams move up.

Another layer we can add the random dice generator. Roll the dice a set number of times. Whatever that number is we use that roll for the simulator.

For example the dice says 6 we take the 6th randomization of the lottery.

This may make things more confusing so if the majority would prefer just the first random the site spits out I’m ok with that as well.
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Old 05-24-2021, 05:31 PM   #26
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I actually really like Goffie’s suggestion for the dice role.
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Old 05-24-2021, 06:00 PM   #27
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As long as I can use my +2 double sided axe.
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Old 05-24-2021, 07:09 PM   #28
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We can do that. It's easy enough.
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Old 05-24-2021, 09:40 PM   #29
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To explain my post

I did over 500 simulations of the draft because I had the No. 1 pick last season. I was trying to find it’s reset number where odds equal the NHL . I wanted to do a 1000 as I seen that as a fair base for a number but gave up out of frustration

It is my “believe” that site generates random selections as fans from a fanbase are more likely to visit and keep using the site if they are seeing their team odds being a possibility. The more all teams use the site the more traffic it generates

The site list NHL odds but does not list their odds. If the site was reputable it would also list the results for the site and you would see ex. Buffalo’s % through every SIM and be able to compare that to the NHL. No where on the site does it list it’s odds it using and base number. Although they list the NHL odds everywhere

Honestly speaking that was my issue last season, I knew because of the number of times I ran the sim that I had better odds trading down than having the number 1 pick.

I do understand the leagues need to get things done, and even though it may come off wrong I don’t think there’s any intent do harm. I see it as it doesn’t matter because the importance of the pick doesn’t carry the same weight.

As a poor team, I just wanted a fair chance and I don’t believe this site (tankathon) gives it. I also understand I’m looking at this from a perspective of a poor team and that’ because it’s easy for other team to approve changes because it increases their odds. The part I find frustrating is that your team isn’t good enough all year and the only hope you have is you didn’t trade away your pick and then at the last minute the rules are changed so better teams can take over the top 10.

Either or it’s not something I want to be removed from the league about as I feel more passionate about this. It’s not easy loosing for a decade and there’s already a hard enough to get over that hump and turn things around. This is all I’m going to say on the matter as I think it’s a no win situation
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Old 05-24-2021, 10:15 PM   #30
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I agree those sites seem to give more random results to appease fanbases( no hard evidence, just playing around the last few years), but we really don't have any other options. Nothing will be perfect.
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Old 05-24-2021, 11:09 PM   #31
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I might be able to program our own in excel. Let me give that a go
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Old 05-25-2021, 07:41 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flickered Flame View Post
I haven't played around with it but would something like this work? You can set the weighting for each team or customize it. Not sure if it would work, just trying to help find a solution.

https://www.draftpicklottery.com/index.php

I like this idea. The weighted option.
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Old 05-25-2021, 12:07 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thirstychimp View Post
I like this idea. The weighted option.
I tried the weighted selection in a 30 team draft and the 16th place team and the 2nd place teams had the top two picks. The 29th and 30th place teams didn't pick until the mid to late teens.

Maybe the custom version would work better.
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Old 05-25-2021, 12:36 PM   #34
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Ok I think I created something that works.
You can check it out by downloading here:
http://cphl.calgarypuck.com/pages/si...L_Lottery.xlsx

I would appreciate a few people checking my work.
Here's how it works

There are two draws. One for the first and one for the second overall pick.

So start with the 1st overall tab. Each cell represents a lottery ball, with each team getting a certain number of lottery balls based on the odds of that team getting the 1st overall pick as outlined here:
So Buffalo was last overall in the NHL, mapping to NJD in the CPHL. Those teams have a 16.6% chance of 1st overall so they get 166 lottery balls. The second last place team has a 12.1% chance so they get 121 balls. This would theoretically add up to 1000 total balls in the first round lottery but doesn't for us because Seattle is not included.

Cell B4 pulls one of the balls/cells randomly. This cell re-freshes anytime you change any part of the worksheet so you need to record the number. For instance I pulled #235 which maps to NYI in the CPHL. (note this designate the original team for the pick, not who may own the pick now through trades). This means the NYI pick would be first overall in the CPHL.

I then go to tab 2 - and before I run the second round I first half to remove ALL the NYI balls from the lottery. Once that is done the cell will automatically pull another ball which is your 2nd overall pick, which for me was 649 - Washington. This means the caps pick is the #2 pick.

From there the draft just carries along in reverse standings.

So it would be

1. NYI
2. Washington
3. NJ
4. CBJ
5. Tampa
6. Carolina
7. Calgary
8. Florida
9. Montreal
10. Toronto
11. Dallas
12. St. Louis
13. Ottawa
14. Vancouver
15. LA

Again those aren't the teams that own the pick - those are the original owners of each pick.

Please take a look at the file and let me know if anyone has any concerns but this should work for us. We would run the lotto live with witnesses as we do with the sim site.
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Old 05-25-2021, 12:45 PM   #35
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worked for me. Did 5 runs and results varied greatly.


768 Montreal
485 Carolina

795 Toronto
880 Vancouver

876 Vancouver
179 NYI

559 Calgary
300 Columbus

304 Columbus
77 New Jersey
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Old 05-25-2021, 02:01 PM   #36
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Looks great, all the numbers add up (balls for each team) and work perfectly. It's very well done, Grant

Opens the question for next year, now that we have untied ourselves from the NHL, should we continue to allow playoff teams to sneak into the lotto draft.

I don't think this is a subtraction we can make for this season but is one that can now be corrected after this year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina View Post

So it would be

1. NYI
2. Washington
3. NJ
4. CBJ
5. Tampa
6. Carolina
7. Calgary
8. Florida
9. Montreal
10. Toronto
11. Dallas
12. St. Louis
13. Ottawa
14. Vancouver
15. LA
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Old 05-25-2021, 02:13 PM   #37
Jiri Hrdina
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Yeah we should make a call after this draft on how we want to handle going forward
- Follow the NHL lottery or not
- How many teams should we include

There is no reason that we have to follow the NHL. We can construct the lottery and corresponding odds as we see fit. But certainly something that should be decided in the off-season. Please help me remember to raise it.

Also a reminder that the NHL starts to add some complexity next year
- -- Teams will be restricted from moving up more than 10 spots if it wins one of the lottery draws.
-- Teams cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year period. Wins in the lottery prior to 2022 will not be counted toward this total.
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Old 05-25-2021, 02:40 PM   #38
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nm
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