Scott Wheeler's Prospect Pool Rankings 2024 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

devo22 · 01-30-2024, 07:20 AM

Bonded · 01-30-2024, 07:45 AM

I think Wheeler didn't like the Honzek pick, I expect the Flames end up in about the same spot

Flamesfan05 · 01-30-2024, 07:49 AM

Too early but if you look at stock since the draft

Honzek- down slightly
Morin probably same
Suniev - up

Bingo · 01-30-2024, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Too early but if you look at stock since the draft

Honzek- down slightly
Morin probably same
Suniev - up

Morin is a point per game defenseman and 5th in D scoring in the Q. The four ahead of him are between a year or two years older.

Not sure I see Morin down.

Jiri Hrdina · 01-30-2024, 08:49 AM

Flames up/down probably depends a lot on if Zary and Pelletier are considered graduated or not.

Flamesfan05 · 01-30-2024, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bingo

Morin is a point per game defenseman and 5th in D scoring in the Q. The four ahead of him are between a year or two years older.

Not sure I see Morin down.

Ok , I don’t disagree

Ped · 01-30-2024, 09:12 AM

The criteria:

Quote:

To be eligible for inclusion, a skater must:

Be under 23 years old. We know that by the time a player turns 23, he is largely done with the steep upward progression we see in prospects and will begin to plateau.
Not be a full-time NHL player. This is the arbitrary section of the criteria. Here, I trust my judgment for whether or not a rostered NHL player is still likely to bounce between levels more than I trust any pre-determined games played cutoff. Preference for inclusion as an NHL prospect is more likely to be given to teenagers than 22-year-olds.
Either be signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights. Players who are signed to AHL contracts are not considered.

To be eligible for inclusion, a goalie must:

Be under 25 years old. This age criteria is more reflective of the typical goalie trajectory, allowing for the continued consideration of a small number of 23- and 24-year-old goalies who are very much still prospects.
Not currently established as one of their NHL club’s two go-to options.
Either be signed to an NHL contract or selected in the entry draft, without the expiration of either of those rights. Goalies who are signed to AHL contracts are not considered.

Jiri Hrdina · 01-30-2024, 09:13 AM

So on that basis chances are Zary excluded but Pelletier could still be in.

Fighting Banana Slug · 01-30-2024, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

So on that basis chances are Zary excluded but Pelletier could still be in.

Which I think highlights how subjective even the inclusion criteria is, let alone the actual player evaluation. September 1 of this year, I doubt anyone had Zary as a full time NHLer. Now he has proven himself and the Flames ranking goes (presumably) down because of it? Doesn't really make sense to me.

Jiri Hrdina · 01-30-2024, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Which I think highlights how subjective even the inclusion criteria is, let alone the actual player evaluation. September 1 of this year, I doubt anyone had Zary as a full time NHLer. Now he has proven himself and the Flames ranking goes (presumably) down because of it? Doesn't really make sense to me.

Well you have to set criteria somehow. This is why some authors don't do a prospect ranking but a ranking of players 23 years or younger. That type of thing.
But doesn't bother me because I see these things are great discussion fodder and nothing more.
Another good example is I suspect Pospisil wasn't a big factor in prior year rankings, but could now be considered a full NHLer. Shows how wrong these things can be. Which is OK.

Strange Brew · 01-30-2024, 01:24 PM

Yeah I get the criteria. It’s about players in the pipeline vs. players on the roster.

Same way you manage a business. You look at pipeline different than bookings.

devo22 · 01-31-2024, 08:04 AM

Next up is Ottawa at 31.

https://theathletic.com/5102037/2024...rankings-2024/

devo22 · 02-03-2024, 10:12 AM

Boston at 30 - https://theathletic.com/5114411/2024...rankings-2024/
Tampa Bay at 29 - https://theathletic.com/5190377/2024...rankings-2024/
Toronto at 28 - https://theathletic.com/5190753/2024...rankings-2024/

many of the teams mentioned in trade rumours with the Flames (OTT, BOS, TOR) among those with the worst prospect pools in the league, but such is life

Goriders · 02-03-2024, 10:18 AM

Wonder if the recent trade would change our ranking

Enoch Root · 02-03-2024, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by devo22

Boston at 30 - https://theathletic.com/5114411/2024...rankings-2024/
Tampa Bay at 29 - https://theathletic.com/5190377/2024...rankings-2024/
Toronto at 28 - https://theathletic.com/5190753/2024...rankings-2024/

many of the teams mentioned in trade rumours with the Flames (OTT, BOS, TOR) among those with the worst prospect pools in the league, but such is life

This is always the case. The majority of the best current prospects are on the teams currently drafting high (sellers, not buyers), and the teams that are good are picking late, and trading much of their draft and prospect capital to get better.

No team is acquiring a stud prospect and then trading them. Even the Flames, when they were still on the 'window' side of the equation, would not allow Wolf to be put on the table.

Vinny01 · 02-03-2024, 10:50 AM

Be he should have waited until March 9th to start these rankings. Prospects will be moved between now and the deadline. Flames have already strengthen their pool with the Lindholm deal and I expect they will continue to do so with the upcoming trades

Enoch Root · 02-03-2024, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Yeah I get the criteria. It’s about players in the pipeline vs. players on the roster.

Same way you manage a business. You look at pipeline different than bookings.

I don't agree here.

Just because a player graduates onto the big club, it doesn't change your projections of future talent in the system. When Zary started playing on the big club instead of the Wranglers, the Flames didn't scratch him off the prospect list. I would suspect that Bedard is still included on Chicago's prospect projection lists.

IMO, it makes much more sense to look at an age cutoff, when you are comparing teams (though neither is perfect, obviously). Again using Chicago as the example, comparing their prospects to other teams, and excluding Bedard, makes the comparison useless.

Regardless though, when you're making a list, you have to make some choices, and away you go. But that's why, when looking at these lists, it is important to be aware of the criteria used, and best to look at multiple lists that have differing criteria.

Enoch Root · 02-03-2024, 11:10 AM

Using their criteria (listed above), Zary, Pospisil and Solvyov would be out, so based on that, I would put our top 10 as:

Wolf
Coronato
Pelletier
Honzek
Morin
Brzustewicz
Poirier
Suniev
Kuznetsov
Jurmo
HM: Schwindt (if you prefer him to either of the last 2)

I would guess that list is in the 18-22 range.

Having neither Brzustewicz or Suniev in the top 5, we're starting to get some depth here.

Flamesfan05 · 02-03-2024, 11:24 AM

If just potential, I hope Honzek is higher than Pelletier……he was a lottery pick in a deep draft

looooob · 02-03-2024, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Which I think highlights how subjective even the inclusion criteria is, let alone the actual player evaluation. September 1 of this year, I doubt anyone had Zary as a full time NHLer. Now he has proven himself and the Flames ranking goes (presumably) down because of it? Doesn't really make sense to me.

whereas Holloway might still be considered a prospect, despite being taken ahead , exactly the same age, and about a 60 game head start in the NHL

in isolation each decision could make sense but it does show how the choices could skew the rankings (*note I have no clue whether Holloway will be included as a prospect)