Brodie or Hamonic?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

It makes no sense to keep two UFA pending defensemen on a team that has no hope of making noise in the playoffs.

Don't confuse you having no hope with actually there being no hope. Any team that gets in can make some noise with a little luck. There's not a lot that separates the top from the middle in this league as the sweeping of Calgary and TB last year shows.

Originally Posted by GullFoss

2) The teams star players have been atrocious. In almost any playoff series the flames could match up against in the first round (St Louis, Colorado, Edmonton, Vegas, Vancouver), the top two players on the ice are probably from the other team.

They have been so far but you make the logical mistake of assuming history will always repeat itself. It doesn't. And the old stars (Monahan/Gaudreau) are being replaced by new stars (Tkachuk/Lindholm.) Tkachuk's best playoffs are ahead of him, don't you agree?

Originally Posted by GullFoss

3) The flames don't have an ace in the hole - a hot goalie or a game breaker where you might even think, "well maybe there's a chance for something special here" as a dark horse. There's no Quick, Kane, Crosby, Theodore, Price, Kipper, etc

We haven't seen a lot of Rittich in the playoffs so you can't really say that. Who knows if he can stand on his head or not. You're pessimistically predicting the future based on zero data. Kind of ridiculous.

Originally Posted by GullFoss

If Treliving is intellectually honest, he'd be a seller at the deadline.

I mean you're being ridiculous here again. Any team that gets in has a chance even if you Debbie downers deny it. Treliving is not going to sell in the middle of a playoff race, that's an absurd and preposterous suggestion. The owners should fire him if he does, they make their money by making the playoffs.

The calls for him to sell at the deadline are completely clueless. I understand why people are pessimistic but you're letting that pessimism and gloom cloud your judgement here. Selling at the deadline in the middle of playoff race when we could still win the division? That's idiotic. I mean we can't sugarcoat it. It's a dumb, dumb, dumb suggestion. I wish people would face reality here.

[Strange Brew]

Clueless, idiotic, dumb... Someone needs to be given a timeout.

At least they didn’t go with LOL.

[GullFoss]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Don't confuse you having no hope with actually there being no hope. Any team that gets in can make some noise with a little luck. There's not a lot that separates the top from the middle in this league as the sweeping of Calgary and TB last year shows.



They have been so far but you make the logical mistake of assuming history will always repeat itself. It doesn't. And the old stars (Monahan/Gaudreau) are being replaced by new stars (Tkachuk/Lindholm.) Tkachuk's best playoffs are ahead of him, don't you agree?



We haven't seen a lot of Rittich in the playoffs so you can't really say that. Who knows if he can stand on his head or not. You're pessimistically predicting the future based on zero data. Kind of ridiculous.



I mean you're being ridiculous here again. Any team that gets in has a chance even if you Debbie downers deny it. Treliving is not going to sell in the middle of a playoff race, that's an absurd and preposterous suggestion. The owners should fire him if he does, they make their money by making the playoffs.

The calls for him to sell at the deadline are completely clueless. I understand why people are pessimistic but you're letting that pessimism and gloom cloud your judgement here. Selling at the deadline in the middle of playoff race when we could still win the division? That's idiotic. I mean we can't sugarcoat it. It's a dumb, dumb, dumb suggestion. I wish people would face reality here.

The two teams in the finals last year were St Louis and Boston. Those were two legit contenders with very strong underlying numbers.

Serious question: what about the flames seasons makes you think they can have a legit chance of winning this year? The Athletic puts their odds at 1%.

The eye test gives me the same results

[djsFlames]

Bramonic.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

The two teams in the finals last year were St Louis and Boston. Those were two legit contenders with very strong underlying numbers.

Serious question: what about the flames seasons makes you think they can have a legit chance of winning this year? The Athletic puts their odds at 1%.

The eye test gives me the same results

Because apparently if you just get in anything can happen despite decades long history that shows the best teams always win. Because our top guys who are all having mediocre seasons and have a history of mediocre playoffs are going to have the playoffs of their lives.

In all seriousness I just hope the Flames dont do anything stupid chasing this year. The odds of them being sellers is very slim even though they probably should. All I hope is we dont waste a bunch of assets and then either we have a long run that is a ton of fun or we get punted and make some big off season moves.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

The two teams in the finals last year were St Louis and Boston. Those were two legit contenders with very strong underlying numbers.

Serious question: what about the flames seasons makes you think they can have a legit chance of winning this year? The Athletic puts their odds at 1%.

The eye test gives me the same results

I don't see the Flames as serious contenders but it's not hard not to look at the Pacific division and see a bunch of meh, and realize the Flames have a realistic shot of being the team to come out of the Division. And with the franchise's history, that would be a hell of a result.

But I don't see them making it without both adding to and just changing the makeup of the team. And the deadline may be too late in the game to manage that kind of change.

So here we are.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

The two teams in the finals last year were St Louis and Boston. Those were two legit contenders with very strong underlying numbers.

Serious question: what about the flames seasons makes you think they can have a legit chance of winning this year? The Athletic puts their odds at 1%.

The eye test gives me the same results

I don't think they'll win the cup. I think there's some problems with this roster that need to be addressed in the offseason.

But you don't trade two of your top 4 defensemen in the middle of the playoff race just because you don't think you're a cup favourite. We could still win the division!

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Because apparently if you just get in anything can happen despite decades long history that shows the best teams always win. Because our top guys who are all having mediocre seasons and have a history of mediocre playoffs are going to have the playoffs of their lives.

In all seriousness I just hope the Flames dont do anything stupid chasing this year. The odds of them being sellers is very slim even though they probably should. All I hope is we dont waste a bunch of assets and then either we have a long run that is a ton of fun or we get punted and make some big off season moves.

Well the best teams last year in the regular season were CGY and TB and they went nowhere. Who was predicting STL winning the cup again? Seems like a bit of revisionist history going on here.

I think Treliving is smart enough not to waste a lot of significant assets on a rental. He'd rather continue to add pieces that can be part of the longer term solution. Basically Brodie and Hamonic are our rentals. And potentially one of them is re-signed and not lost for nothing depending on cost and term.

I disagree that they should be sellers. You should be sellers in the years where you are trying to accumulate assets to start a rebuild or during a rebuild. We should have been sellers the year Feaster talked about intellectually honesty and did nothing. But now the Flames are asset rich thanks to our rebuild, some good drafting and development. We aren't desperate to trade good players for draft picks in the middle of a playoff race. We're not rebuilding and won't be anytime soon IMO. If the roster needs a shakeup or a bit of a core change it'll happen in the summer.

Overall this is a pretty good team, still fighting for 1st in the division despite a bad start, a forced coaching change, a down year from what had been one of our most dangerous players. I get why people are pessimistic about us going far in the playoffs, I am too. But that doesn't mean you trade a couple of your best defensemen for futures while in the midst of a huge playoff race.

Should be interesting to see what Treliving can manage to add. Gaudreau deserves one last playoff run to prove himself before a decision is made about moving on from him or not. It'll be a big test for guys like Lindholm, Tkachuk, Rittich, Monahan and our young D as well.

Let's not forget that failing in the playoffs can be necessary for learning how to succeed in the playoffs. This is still a relatively young team with rookies who have played very few games (or no games) in the playoffs. The experience of going there and seeing what it takes to win is something I like some are underrating. You don't undercut the chance of getting there by selling a couple of your top 4 dmen for picks, it just doesn't make any sense to me with where the franchise is in its competitive cycle. This team desperately needs more playoff experience. Let's see who steps up in the most important time and who doesn't. That's how you find out who to build around.

[GullFoss]

That's where I disagree

1) huge difference between being Boston last year (10% chance of winning cup) and Calgary this year (1% chance).

2) you get assets for pending ufas whenever you're not a contender. 1% is not a contender to win; it's a lotto ticket to win. If the flames were 4%+, if agree with you.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

That's where I disagree

1) huge difference between being Boston last year (10% chance of winning cup) and Calgary this year (1% chance).

2) you get assets for pending ufas whenever you're not a contender. 1% is not a contender to win; it's a lotto ticket to win. If the flames were 4%+, if agree with you.

Maybe not winning the cup. But a team from the Pacific is probably going to be in the WCF. And Why should it be Vancouver, Edmonton, AZ or Vegas and not Calgary? All those teams have flaws.

Right now Calgary would play Vancouver first round and that's sure not a terrible matchup IMO.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well the best teams last year in the regular season were CGY and TB and they went nowhere. Who was predicting STL winning the cup again? Seems like a bit of revisionist history going on here.

From when Berube took over the Blues through to the end of the regular season, the Blues were one of the best teams at unblocked shots % in the NHL, along with a group of Boston, Carolina, San Jose, and Vegas over that 60-64 game stretch. Anyone who pays attention to that stuff predicted that they were a bonafide contender. Three of the teams listed above were in the conference finals, and the fourth lost to another one of the teams listed above. CGY and Tampa wasn't far behind the Blues in this category, but that still goes to emphasize that regular season record, as always, is a worse predictor than 5v5FF%.

Overall this is a pretty good team

I wish I could say the same about Calgary this year as the signs showed about St. Louis - but it would be a lie. Since Geoff Ward took over as head coach, we've posted the 23rd best 5v5FF% in the NHL. That's... just a bad team. We're all crossing our fingers that they magically figure it all out over the final however-many games, but comparing our team to the Blues based on on-ice performance following both teams' respective coaching changes indicates that's probably disingenuous at best. Teams in the bottom 10 in the league in these sort of analytic categories usually end up in the lottery, but thankfully a strong shootout record and some markedly poor play everywhere in the west has somehow in a playoff spot.

St. Louis barely made the playoffs but they were a team playing contender hockey for much of the season.

Calgary might cruise to the playoffs but they are a team playing lottery hockey for much of the season.

[Gaskal]

According to Pike's article on FlamesNation today, Kylington is a left shot but has played RD prior to coming over. So if Valimaki is good to go by the deadline, I think we move Hamonic for whatever he'll go for and try out Valimaki with Kylington.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well the best teams last year in the regular season were CGY and TB and they went nowhere. Who was predicting STL winning the cup again? Seems like a bit of revisionist history going on here.

I think Treliving is smart enough not to waste a lot of significant assets on a rental. He'd rather continue to add pieces that can be part of the longer term solution. Basically Brodie and Hamonic are our rentals. And potentially one of them is re-signed and not lost for nothing depending on cost and term.

I disagree that they should be sellers. You should be sellers in the years where you are trying to accumulate assets to start a rebuild or during a rebuild. We should have been sellers the year Feaster talked about intellectually honesty and did nothing. But now the Flames are asset rich thanks to our rebuild, some good drafting and development. We aren't desperate to trade good players for draft picks in the middle of a playoff race. We're not rebuilding and won't be anytime soon IMO. If the roster needs a shakeup or a bit of a core change it'll happen in the summer.

Overall this is a pretty good team, still fighting for 1st in the division despite a bad start, a forced coaching change, a down year from what had been one of our most dangerous players. I get why people are pessimistic about us going far in the playoffs, I am too. But that doesn't mean you trade a couple of your best defensemen for futures while in the midst of a huge playoff race.

Should be interesting to see what Treliving can manage to add. Gaudreau deserves one last playoff run to prove himself before a decision is made about moving on from him or not. It'll be a big test for guys like Lindholm, Tkachuk, Rittich, Monahan and our young D as well.

Let's not forget that failing in the playoffs can be necessary for learning how to succeed in the playoffs. This is still a relatively young team with rookies who have played very few games (or no games) in the playoffs. The experience of going there and seeing what it takes to win is something I like some are underrating. You don't undercut the chance of getting there by selling a couple of your top 4 dmen for picks, it just doesn't make any sense to me with where the franchise is in its competitive cycle. This team desperately needs more playoff experience. Let's see who steps up in the most important time and who doesn't. That's how you find out who to build around.

Telling me upsets happen in the playoffs doesn't really prove much. The winner of the Cup is pretty much always an elite team. This idea that you just get in and anything can happen is BS. There are really no examples of that. The only team that has ever done it was LA and that was an extremely talented roster than was under performing. 2 cups in 3 years proves that. This team is nothing like that team. Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston, Anaheim, Carolina, Tampa, Detroit, Colorado, etc etc, etc. You can literally go back decades and the winner of the Cup is always an elite team. I just hope that if the Flames miss the playoffs or have an early exit management has the balls to make some major changes. I have nightmares of Feaster era delusion with this management group.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

That's where I disagree

1) huge difference between being Boston last year (10% chance of winning cup) and Calgary this year (1% chance).

2) you get assets for pending ufas whenever you're not a contender. 1% is not a contender to win; it's a lotto ticket to win. If the flames were 4%+, if agree with you.

The bolded is pure fantasy. If that is the way teams thought , every year at the deadline there would only be 2-3 teams buying and everybody else would be selling. Do some posters really think that teams in playoff spots trade their up coming UFA's at the deadlin,e even though that UFA player could help them in the playoffs?

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

Brodie, and for age alone.

Brodie has a lot of tread life left.

Hamonic could hit the wall any day.

Ummm...Brodie is actually a bit older.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

That's where I disagree

2) you get assets for pending ufas whenever you're not a contender. 1% is not a contender to win; it's a lotto ticket to win. If the flames were 4%+, if agree with you.

That's just false. Playoff teams do not sell. Even some teams just outside the playoffs refuse to sell.

This idea that you should sell if you're not the Stanley Cup favourite is a joke.

[GullFoss]

I'm amazed how many posters still believe in this 2019-20 team. At some point the flames are what their record suggests they are. In the weakest division, this team is only in the playoffs race because of shoot out winners (luck).

It's also a team that folds under pressure, whether it's down the stretch or in the playoffs. It's going to be another embarrassing playoffs stint if they make it.

There's a pretty decent chance they miss the playoffs with or without Brodie/Hamonic.

[Roof-Daddy]

Keep neither.

Trade both for as many 2020 picks as you can get and retain half of their remaining salaries/cap hits in order to increase the return.