Irma's winds are a steady 295 kph gusting to 360 kph. I'm sure everything will be just fine.
Nobody disputes Irma is a massive and very damaging storm if it hits Florida, but those sustained wind speeds are matched by Hurricane Wilma (2005), Hurricane Gilbert (1988) and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. All of these currently trail the maximum sustained wind speed of Hurricane Allen (1980) and Irma's central pressure is unusually higher than the earlier hurricanes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tinordi
Also sure that accord1999 will post some context-free chart showing something or other about it not being related to climate change.
The only context free claims are the ones that blames every modestly unusual weather incident on climate change.
Ok so how would you engineer solutions to mitigate climate change in a politically neutral way? I mean, how would you reduce GHGs by 50% over the next 40 years with engineering solutions that aren't political?
To blithely state that politics don't have a place in reducing GHGs seems completely delusional in my opinion.
I'm not saying politics don't have a place. I'm saying that politics will fail until their is a cheap alternative. Look at Koyoto, Copenhagen, and Paris. All agreements without teeth. Essentially everyone makes bold commitments while doing things within the realm of the current technology to reduce impact. The only way to actually reduce CO2 by 95% (you need to account for the 3rd world having equal CO2 emissions to the first) is for tech to save us.
Then you look at the US political system and lose all hope of them ever doing anything that isn't immediately cost effective.
So you could try to use this to lobby for change and you will run into Ann Coulter saying it's more likely that God hates Lesbians causing the storm than climate change or you can set design standards which account for the increased probability of storms and build to them.
As for what should be done: Canada should unilaterally start geo engineering the planet to save everyone. It's actually relatively cheap.
The Atlantic ocean is usually warm, it's 0.5 to 2.0 degrees C above the average. Nobody is saying that there's some climate change god that's conjuring these hurricanes. What I'm saying, and all the other climate scientists, is that it's a key factor and that we ignore this at our peril.
We will *never* experience the disaster that was 100% the result of climate change. It amplifies events, it boosts frequencies, it just generally makes everything worse. We're so biased so as to just normalize these events because they're incrementally worse than before. But, I mean, I remember when lac-des-arc had water in it. I remember when Calgary actually had chinooks , I remember lots of snow, every winter. These things are now fleeting. One year is a huge dump, then another 3 years of nothing. Things did not used to be this way.
However continue posting charts from climate denial websites. We'll all have a good yarn.
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The Atlantic ocean is usually warm, it's 0.5 to 2.0 degrees C above the average. Nobody is saying that there's some climate change god that's conjuring these hurricanes. What I'm saying, and all the other climate scientists, is that it's a key factor and that we ignore this at our peril.
We will *never* experience the disaster that was 100% the result of climate change. It amplifies events, it boosts frequencies, it just generally makes everything worse. We're so biased so as to just normalize these events because they're incrementally worse than before. But, I mean, I remember when lac-des-arc had water in it. I remember when Calgary actually had chinooks , I remember lots of snow, every winter. These things are now fleeting. One year is a huge dump, then another 3 years of nothing. Things did not used to be this way.
However continue posting charts from climate denial websites. We'll all have a good yarn.
The thing I struggle with is we are looking at such a short sample size over the history of Earth that I just wonder how much of this is normal or not. For the last 100 years it is much higher in disasters and during that time we've increased CO2 etc...so I understand the likely relationships between the two.
But still, 100 years in the history of Earth, that's a really small snapshot
The Atlantic ocean is usually warm, it's 0.5 to 2.0 degrees C above the average. Nobody is saying that there's some climate change god that's conjuring these hurricanes. What I'm saying, and all the other climate scientists, is that it's a key factor and that we ignore this at our peril.
We will *never* experience the disaster that was 100% the result of climate change. It amplifies events, it boosts frequencies, it just generally makes everything worse. We're so biased so as to just normalize these events because they're incrementally worse than before. But, I mean, I remember when lac-des-arc had water in it. I remember when Calgary actually had chinooks , I remember lots of snow, every winter. These things are now fleeting. One year is a huge dump, then another 3 years of nothing. Things did not used to be this way.
However continue posting charts from climate denial websites. We'll all have a good yarn.
I don't know that I agree with your observational data. I think we get more Chinooks (DiCaprio agrees with me) than we used to. There's been pretty consistent and very substantial snow packs in the mountains. Last year was massive. And it's been pretty cold out. Lac des Arc might be low due to hydrological controls. I'm not sure but there is no reason for it to be low. Kan Lakes are low now to accommodate potential flooding in the spring. Snow was melting until early July this year. The Bow is still higher than it has been some years. But all just my observation.
Nobody disputes Irma is a massive and very damaging storm if it hits Florida, but those sustained wind speeds are matched by Hurricane Wilma (2005), Hurricane Gilbert (1988) and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. All of these currently trail the maximum sustained wind speed of Hurricane Allen (1980) and Irma's central pressure is unusually higher than the earlier hurricanes.
Except that none of those hurricanes happened in the Atlantic basin. Atlantic basin hurricanes don't hold onto Cat 5 status generally, and they certainly don't get up to 185+ mph winds. Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean hurricanes gain strength like that due to warmer, shallower water.
Hurricanes in the open Atlantic basin just don't get this strong. NOAA confirmed that Irma is the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin.
Yes, storms have always happened. Yes, strong storms have always happened. Yes, droughts have always happened and floods have always happened and wildfires have always happened, we're all fully aware of this. It doesn't change that more and more record-breaking events are happening globally. It doesn't change the fact that climate change is a real thing that is affecting weather events.
No one storm--not Harvey, not Irma, not Katrina, etc--is directly, 100% the result of climate change. We get it.
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Nobody disputes Irma is a massive and very damaging storm if it hits Florida, but those sustained wind speeds are matched by Hurricane Wilma (2005), Hurricane Gilbert (1988) and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. All of these currently trail the maximum sustained wind speed of Hurricane Allen (1980) and Irma's central pressure is unusually higher than the earlier hurricanes.
What sets Irma apart is it reached cat 5 status far earlier and faster than any other storm on record and it did so in the Atlantic Basin before it even reached the Leeward Islands.
Wilma - Cat 5 in the South West Caribbean Sea for 1 day Gilbert - Cat 5 in the West Caribbean Sea for 1 day 1935 Labor Day - Cat 5 for 12 hours in the west Bahamas Allen - Earliest Cat 5 on record until now but again in the hot Caribbean Sea south of Puerto Rico
I haven't looked but I doubt there was even a cat 4 ever recorded east of the Leeward Islands
Last edited by Snuffleupagus; 09-06-2017 at 04:49 AM.
Many gas stations around here (Delray Beach) are tapped out.
A bit before noon lines at gas stations were backing up major roads for blocks.
Cops at intersections and gas stations...
Calmer now that there's not much left to buy.
Imo, if she hits here the mayhem would be even worse than it would be in many other places.
After all we have the worst drivers and rudest people, apparently.
There are advertisements in the news, etc about ordering water from Amazon.
Amazon Prime; water in 2 days!
We can't get off of work early to take care of our homes because we're delivering water to people- kinda funny in a way.
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We tried to get water from Amazon on Monday. They guaranteed it in 2 days, but then quickly backtracked and notified us it wouldn't be here until late next week.
In other news, I could use some positive thoughts from CP in the coming days. If a potential category 5 hurricane wasn't scary enough, there's this:
Hurricane Irma is set to hit on Sunday the 10th
My wife is pregnant and her due date is Monday the 11th
It's brown trousers time.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by ResAlien
If we can't fall in love with replaceable bottom 6 players then the terrorists have won.
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We tried to get water from Amazon on Monday. They guaranteed it in 2 days, but then quickly backtracked and notified us it wouldn't be here until late next week.
In other news, I could use some positive thoughts from CP in the coming days. If a potential category 5 hurricane wasn't scary enough, there's this:
Hurricane Irma is set to hit on Sunday the 10th
My wife is pregnant and her due date is Monday the 11th
It's brown trousers time.
Have you considered going somewhere safer? It does not look good fro Boca Raton...
We tried to get water from Amazon on Monday. They guaranteed it in 2 days, but then quickly backtracked and notified us it wouldn't be here until late next week.
In other news, I could use some positive thoughts from CP in the coming days. If a potential category 5 hurricane wasn't scary enough, there's this:
Hurricane Irma is set to hit on Sunday the 10th
My wife is pregnant and her due date is Monday the 11th
Have you considered going somewhere safer? It does not look good fro Boca Raton...
It's not possible unfortunately.
If we drive anywhere in Florida we'll probably still have to deal with this storm.
My wife cannot get on a plane...that's even IF we could get a flight out of here, which we can't.
The plan is for her to camp out at the hospital just before the storm hits. If she needs medical attention, they'll take care of her no problem. They have generators and the building is quite solid.
The only problem with that scenario is that I'm not allowed to go with her unless she's already in labour.
Quote:
Originally Posted by missdpuck
Where are you?
All good thoughts to you guys.
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In central/west Boca. We're in a relatively safe space. As long as we don't get flood waters like Houston, we'll be ok. I'm sure I'll be losing some roof tiles after this one though.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by ResAlien
If we can't fall in love with replaceable bottom 6 players then the terrorists have won.
