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Old 05-15-2019, 10:40 PM   #201
GranteedEV
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So your argument for Bennett being worth $4 million plus is what exactly?

You cannot talk about AAV independant of term, especially if a player is going to be in his 20s for virtually the entirety of said term.

4.0M for three years is not a good contract. In fact it is a bad one.
4.0M for eight years is a good contract. In fact it has the potential to be even better than just good.
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Old 05-15-2019, 10:43 PM   #202
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4 mil a season for Bennett lol.

I do agree we should give him better linemates though. I think we should try to get another o line going, tkachuk-centre-bennett, then have backlund lead a very strong third line.
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Old 05-15-2019, 10:45 PM   #203
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I thought $3.6 million for Bennett was pushing it a little, and I like Bennett. $4 million is right out, as it stands.
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Old 05-15-2019, 10:52 PM   #204
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Start off by saying I enjoy GranteedEV's posts, he doesn't adhere to traditional thinking and can be described as an outside the box thinker when it comes to the game. Hell at times - - like right now - - he spits on the box and throws it in the trash!

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If I were GM, I assure you we would not be on the hook for Mike Stone, James Neal, or Troy Brouwer's buyout.
This is fair and I believe this... but let's try to be honest about it, there would be contracts and moves you'd make that would be regrettable. Maybe Troy Brouwer or James Neal don't get deals but maybe Michael Ferland or TJ Brodie get long term deals that you wish you could take back.

There is certainly a player you've liked in your past, signed by any of the other 30 NHL teams you loved at the time but has turned sour I'm sure
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Old 05-15-2019, 10:56 PM   #205
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Pay Bennett third line money because that's how he's being used. Anything more makes him another expensive bottom 6 contract.

It seems simple to me. Can't pay him more just because some feel like he could be more than that.

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Old 05-15-2019, 11:05 PM   #206
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No GM is perfect. Everyone would make mistakes in that role. Plus, hindsight is huge. Most people were in favour of the Neal and Stone signings when they happened.

I can say right now that I wouldn't have signed Brouwer, but maybe I'd have signed Loui Eriksson instead. Or David Backes. Maybe I'd still be giving David Jones one-year deals. (OK probably not). Point is, teams have to spend money. We can erase bad contracts in theoretical worlds but if we're second-guessing every decision, maybe the Flames ship Hamilton off to St. Louis instead of Carolina and we're debating how to get rid of Robby Fabbri.

Anyway, with Bennett, I can see three big outcomes. Either he breaks out and becomes a semi-star, potting around 60 points a year; he improves only slightly into a 40-point player or something similar; or he stagnates entirely. For all three of these situations, the player still provides value to the team. So I say, lock Bennett in for as many years as possible. Give him 4 or even 5 if possible. See if he takes around $3 million. Even if he doesn't progress, that contract isn't gonna be deleterious, and if he improves even slightly, then it becomes a bargain.
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Old 05-16-2019, 01:46 AM   #207
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Right now Bennett has no real hand. His arbitration case isn't great. It makes the most sense for all parties to do one year deals until his RFA years expire and they have to make a decision on him... or he breaks out and they feel they need to lock him down long-term.
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Old 05-16-2019, 07:10 AM   #208
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^ I never said I think Bennett is getting 4 million

You said the series proved he wasnít a difference maker. A difference maker doesnít mean play miraculously overcoming and reversing a garbage series from Gaudreau, Monahan, Hamonic, Hanifin, etc and reversing a 30 shot per game differential. Itís often something like a consistent effort and a timely goal here and there in an otherwise competitive game.

Donít overestimate the reach of my remark
Itís not just the Colorado series that proves out who Bennett is.

This is not a dissection of the Colorado series but a discussion of Bennettís worth. His play in the Colorado series was solid but also not worthy of an 8 year contract, nor a $4 million plus AAV. Those kinds of contracts go to special players.

There are things to like about Samís game but you donít commit that kind of money and term to a player like that. Especially something with little to no leverage.

You have replied to me about 10 times and I still have no idea what point youíre trying to make. Youíve brought up Iginla, Kipper, Globetrotters...

Every player in the league can make a difference in a close game. Steve Montador, God rest his soul, scored a huge goal for the Flames and made a difference in a playoff game.

Should Bennett have single handedly turned the Colorado series around? I havenít said that once. Donít know why you are trying to argue that point.
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Old 05-16-2019, 07:15 AM   #209
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4 mil a season for Bennett lol.

I do agree we should give him better linemates though. I think we should try to get another o line going, tkachuk-centre-bennett, then have backlund lead a very strong third line.
At $4 m+ million and an 8 year term, Iíd like Bennett to be a guy making his linemates better.
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Old 05-16-2019, 07:45 AM   #210
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I think his production says he's a $2.75M player.

I think if you take that three years plus he probably comes in around $3M

So if someone wanted to lock him up for 8 years he may be pretty close in that $4M range if the players agent assumes growth and digs in.

So the number looks crazy, but he's probably not that far off if the Flames were determined to get the player on max term.

That's not to say I'd be in favour of doing it though.
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Old 05-16-2019, 08:25 AM   #211
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The problems with going long term are numerous:

You are banking on the player improving. Yeah there is upside if the player improves more than planned, or the cap grows more than anticipated. But if he stagnates you are stuck with an anchor contract with a ridiculous term.

You are overpaying for the next few years compared to a short term deal, on a team with little salary cap space in the next few years.

What this team needs is another elite forward. Why take a gamble on a player who most certainly won’t be that, while limiting your ability to add salary for a top player?

An 8 year contract removes a large incentive for the player to want to achieve his peak potential.

It’s a discussion about something that almost certainly wont happen. Still think he signs for 2 years under $5 million total.
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Old 05-16-2019, 09:01 AM   #212
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Just wondering, and perhaps it's been discussed elsewhere (apologies if so), but did Sam have the opportunity to play for Team Canada? Could've been a great chance for some exposure and for him to continue his great playoff play - showing what he can do? Thanks.
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Old 05-16-2019, 09:53 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by GranteedEV View Post
You cannot talk about AAV independant of term, especially if a player is going to be in his 20s for virtually the entirety of said term.

4.0M for three years is not a good contract. In fact it is a bad one.
4.0M for eight years is a good contract. In fact it has the potential to be even better than just good.
Is it a good contract if he never improves, or regresses?
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Old 05-16-2019, 09:54 AM   #214
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Just wondering, and perhaps it's been discussed elsewhere (apologies if so), but did Sam have the opportunity to play for Team Canada? Could've been a great chance for some exposure and for him to continue his great playoff play - showing what he can do? Thanks.
I never heard he was asked and I'd be pretty surprised if he was.
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Old 05-16-2019, 11:02 AM   #215
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The problems with going long term are numerous:

You are banking on the player improving. Yeah there is upside if the player improves more than planned, or the cap grows more than anticipated. But if he stagnates you are stuck with an anchor contract with a ridiculous term.

You are overpaying for the next few years compared to a short term deal, on a team with little salary cap space in the next few years.

What this team needs is another elite forward. Why take a gamble on a player who most certainly wonít be that, while limiting your ability to add salary for a top player?

An 8 year contract removes a large incentive for the player to want to achieve his peak potential.

Itís a discussion about something that almost certainly wont happen. Still think he signs for 2 years under $5 million total.
Yeah I wouldn't do it.

Just pointing out the guy with the contract value isn't as crazy as some are making him out.

If you think he's going to improve (his agent), or in this case Treliving as well, and you want to lock him up 8 years, it might take $4M to get it done.
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Old 05-16-2019, 12:42 PM   #216
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Bennett is probably the best 4th liner in the league.

I don't know what you pay for that but I don't go above 2.5 on a 2 year deal and I press as hard as I can to not go north of 2 per.

If he values term I would be comfortable with 2x3 or 2.1x4.

The problem with calling Bennett an above average third liner is above average third liners play heavy special teams minutes OR their offense is significantly better and Bennett hasn't shown an ability to do that with much efficacy.

It is pretty rose coloured to suggest the only thing that matters in a frolik comparison is there relative even strength production per minute when the significant factor is their relative impact on the players they play with.

When that comparison is illustrated in numbers it is clear Bennett has an adverse effect on the roster the further up he plays compared to Frolik. He might still get his points, bit his linemates don't.

Hathaway - Janko - Bennett is a fourth line on a contender because they are all fourth liners. Bennett is definitely the best of the bunch, but that's where he is slotted for the team to find the most success.

I don't think there is any shame in being called a top 4th line player. Reeves just got paid handsomely as the reigning 4th line heavyweight champ.
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Old 05-16-2019, 01:24 PM   #217
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Bennett is probably the best 4th liner in the league.

I don't know what you pay for that but I don't go above 2.5 on a 2 year deal and I press as hard as I can to not go north of 2 per.

If he values term I would be comfortable with 2x3 or 2.1x4.

The problem with calling Bennett an above average third liner is above average third liners play heavy special teams minutes OR their offense is significantly better and Bennett hasn't shown an ability to do that with much efficacy.

It is pretty rose coloured to suggest the only thing that matters in a frolik comparison is there relative even strength production per minute when the significant factor is their relative impact on the players they play with.

When that comparison is illustrated in numbers it is clear Bennett has an adverse effect on the roster the further up he plays compared to Frolik. He might still get his points, bit his linemates don't.

Hathaway - Janko - Bennett is a fourth line on a contender because they are all fourth liners. Bennett is definitely the best of the bunch, but that's where he is slotted for the team to find the most success.

I don't think there is any shame in being called a top 4th line player. Reeves just got paid handsomely as the reigning 4th line heavyweight champ.
Well his actual production across the league suggests he's a third liner, and probably an above average one.

And there's no shame in being called an average to above average third liner either.

Your idea that above average third liners play special teams doesn't really work unless you're just talking PK time, as they'd likely have more points if they played more powerplay time than Bennett and would therefore be higher up the list when it comes to point averages.

Don't think many were arguing that Frolik is better defensively.
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Old 05-16-2019, 03:07 PM   #218
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It's been pointed out by me previously and others in this thread that there is a big gap between comparing Bennett to a league average that includes the worst teams in the league and comparing him to contending teams.

It also conveniently leaves out that the context of his production benefitted from spending 30+ percent of his icetime this season with Backlund and tkachuk, who also coincidentally happened to produce less tangible offense when paired with Bennett.

Outside of those second line minutes he was producing tangible offense at a 4th line rate.

For something like the first 25 games of the season he was on an 18 point pace.

I just don't care how he compares to the oilers third line forwards.

How does he compare to the sharks, bolts, bruins, knights, Jets, caps, preds, avs, etc. third lines?

How does he compare in points per 60 against the teams that remain in the playoffs right now?
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Old 05-16-2019, 03:34 PM   #219
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One thing I’m fairly certain of is that those good teams don’t pay their 5th or 6th best winger $4 million per. Or $3M for that matter. A quick tour through capfriendly for some of the better teams confirmed that.
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Old 05-16-2019, 03:48 PM   #220
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One thing Iím fairly certain of is that those good teams donít pay their 5th or 6th best winger $4 million per. Or $3M for that matter. A quick tour through capfriendly for some of the better teams confirmed that.
Is Bennett our 5th or 6th best winger?

Right now in my opinion only Gaudreau, Tkachuk, and Lindholm (who is rumored to be moving to center) are clearly better.
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