I just don't see price parity being reached for 10 years. There is lots of optimistic stuff, but also realities. I agree, once parity exists there isn't a lot of reason to go gas over electric. But by reaching manufacturing cost parity you increase demand massively. Which means if they have other advantages, they will be priced higher.
This forecasting has a lot of guessing, so I don't see it as something you can say with a lot of certainty will occur in such and such a time frame. Auto manufacturers are notorious for getting these things wrong all the time. I suspect there will be lots of losers whichever way it goes.
I'm not being facetious here, but I'm confused. The biggest factor but hundreds of miles affecting Alberta is energy prices, not politics. If oil goes to $25 say, how is that the politicians and protestors fault?
It's easy to blame government when the economy goes poorly, but they don't set oil prices.
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Related, but slightly off topic. Does anyone know how much land is lost, globally, to development every year?
I believe it's ~3 million acres in the US alone. I cannot find a global figure though.
I don't know, but do you mean arable land or land in general? Not all land taken for development may have been useful for agriculture to start with. That said I would also think the amount of non arable land developed is a pretty small percentage or the total land developed.
I'm not being facetious here, but I'm confused. The biggest factor but hundreds of miles affecting Alberta is energy prices, not politics. If oil goes to $25 say, how is that the politicians and protestors fault?
It's easy to blame government when the economy goes poorly, but they don't set oil prices.
The biggest factor at this exact moment in time is pipelines, not world oil prices.
World oil prices are irrelevant to the current Albertan situation, because we are completely disconnected from it (to the negative side). Getting actual world oil prices for our oil would be a huge positive factor for the industry. At that point, then we can talk about world oil prices.
I'm not being facetious here, but I'm confused. The biggest factor but hundreds of miles affecting Alberta is energy prices, not politics. If oil goes to $25 say, how is that the politicians and protestors fault?
It's easy to blame government when the economy goes poorly, but they don't set oil prices.
You're out of touch with the issue facing Alberta, then. Politics and activism is what's killing Canadian Oil. Like the above poster said, just dealing with world Oil prices over the past few years would be a godsend.
The biggest factor at this exact moment in time is pipelines, not world oil prices.
World oil prices are irrelevant to the current Albertan situation, because we are completely disconnected from it (to the negative side). Getting actual world oil prices for our oil would be a huge positive factor for the industry. At that point, then we can talk about world oil prices.
I see. Sorry, I was more referring to the future.
If transportation is disrupted to the level it looks like, that could put oil below $30 for a very long time. That would make almost all Alberta oil unrecoverable, but especially Oil Sands if I understand things right. This wouldn't be from any foreign conspiracy it domestic political incompetence, but from simple global economics. With the economic turmoil though, people will want scapegoats and politicians are easy targets.
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Ugg, Oil is going to be around for decades still, and will still have peaks and valleys. The fact that it will be gone in decades, possibly a century doesn't mean you give up now and go "It's on it's way out, what are you complaining about, it's inevitable, it's over". The US is smart and going full bore on Oil production while stomping out competition like Canada through activism and politics.
Canada easily could have been competitive in the coming decades as Oil slows down and then attempted a shift during those years. It's politics that has us cut off and dying right now. I can't believe you can't see or understand that.
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There's somehow this thought out there that Oil is going away or can be left in the ground in a short matter of years, but Oil is still a strong source and required source of energy, until the alternatives catch up in terms of cost and efficiency.
Its just like May and her recent policy position that we can simple transition every job and every business off of oil and gas just because . . . . good wishes.
I mean the bottom line is, we have these ernest, politicians in Canada standing on soap boxes talking about shutting down Oil in the short term, and when you ask then what the plan is, there isn't one besides "Jobs, lots of green energy jobs". I don't get it, its not a plan or a strategy, its a selling point that nobody seems to ever want to dive into.
Besides, if Canada "Lead the way" and decided to shut down oil production, all that happens is other oil producing countries step up and fill that market share, and frankly those countries for the most part have a more horrific environmental record then Canada does.
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Electricity generation will see disruption about the same time. It's already cheaper to build solar capacity with storage than gas/coal, and costs for solar and storage are still plummeting.
The most disruption that solar has caused is in increased electricity prices and grid stability.The countries with the most expensive electricity almost universally have the most penetration of solar and wind. And not only is it expensive, it also becomes hard to manage especially as reliable but old power stations retired and aren't replaced; as shown by sunny Australia who can barely handle hot summer afternoons anymore and where spot prices can jump to A$14,000/MWh.
Wind is similar, as the UK suffered a severe grid failure last Friday despite being in very windy conditions and the Australian regulator suing several wind farms for helping to cause a state-wide blackout in South Australia back in 2016.
And storage is a complete non-starter in much of the developed world as you need seasonal storage to save summer solar surpluses to make up for winter deficits.
Canada should be a leader in implementing effective ways to reduce green house gases and moving to more clean energy BUT this all for not if it doesn't become a leader in helping other nations (who account for 98.5~ percent of the worlds emissions) reduce their carbon footprint. This is a global issue NOT a regional issue.
Not all for naught if we can develop and export effective technology. This would benefit our economy and help with global emissions as other countries adopt it. It’s not like other countries and particularly global companies have zero interest in reducing emissions - if there was effective and affordable technology it would get used.
1) I'm not advocating for decreasing oil output. I think we need to have the pipeline built, and improve Alberta's (and frankly Canada's) economic interests.
2) I don't think we should abandon oil in the ground or that it's a grand wonderful thing. I'm saying it looks like that's where things are headed. Some disagree and that's fine, that's what discussing like this are for.
3) I'm not advocating the government picking any winners or losers here.
My family's income and well-being are firstly impacted by these potential changes. I'm a Pharmacist in bc, but I guarantee my economic success is directly tied to Alberta continuing to make money. All of my best friends work in either gas, oil, or coal. I'm not cheerleading anyone's demise here.
What I'm saying is the ingredients for fundamental hard hitting disruption are gathering and I'm worried about the future. We focus on how these changes in electricity generation and electric vehicles work in Alberta, but that's not who buys the oil. China and Europe are making this happen much faster than here, and that's where our oil goes.
And the worst part is I'm not sure that global ghg emissions in sum total are lowered much by this
That's fair, but from what I have read the global growth in energy consumption is more than swallowing up any gains in efficiency and transitions we see. I think any time frame in 5-10 years is far to optimistic, and petroleum demand will continue past that, simply due to developing nations expanding their energy use so rapidly. And I just don't see evidence that they will be able to skip over fossil fuels in a way that is going to have a downward effect no global usage. The sheer scale of global vehicle purchases makes it incredibly difficult to imagine the replacement, let alone equalizing of electric vehicle sales. Particularly the infrastructure required to make it work.
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Obviously the only real way out of this climate mess in the short-term is for us to get over it and build some nuclear power plants.
Yep, 100000% yep.
As always anyone who doubts we should, I always refer to this excellent Nova documentary on the future of nuclear, what tech is nearly here and available already which is incredibly safe.
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1) I'm not advocating for decreasing oil output. I think we need to have the pipeline built, and improve Alberta's (and frankly Canada's) economic interests.
2) I don't think we should abandon oil in the ground or that it's a grand wonderful thing. I'm saying it looks like that's where things are headed. Some disagree and that's fine, that's what discussing like this are for.
3) I'm not advocating the government picking any winners or losers here.
My family's income and well-being are firstly impacted by these potential changes. I'm a Pharmacist in bc, but I guarantee my economic success is directly tied to Alberta continuing to make money. All of my best friends work in either gas, oil, or coal. I'm not cheerleading anyone's demise here.
What I'm saying is the ingredients for fundamental hard hitting disruption are gathering and I'm worried about the future. We focus on how these changes in electricity generation and electric vehicles work in Alberta, but that's not who buys the oil. China and Europe are making this happen much faster than here, and that's where our oil goes.
And the worst part is I'm not sure that global ghg emissions in sum total are lowered much by this
I recommend checking out some of the multitudes of research that has been done on global energy supply and demand
I don’t think it is good enough to simply think that everyone can just have an opinion about whether or not, for example, a change in transportation demands will keep oil in the ground, and that it is ‘fine’. The data is out there, and many many people out a ton of effort in to complex forecasting considering many factors and scenarios. People are considering the global energy demand mix, the demand side, segmented into emerging and mature economies, the global supply mix, etc. etc.
I recommend checking out some of the multitudes of research that has been done on global energy supply and demand
I don’t think it is good enough to simply think that everyone can just have an opinion about whether or not, for example, a change in transportation demands will keep oil in the ground, and that it is ‘fine’. The data is out there, and many many people out a ton of effort in to complex forecasting considering many factors and scenarios. People are considering the global energy demand mix, the demand side, segmented into emerging and mature economies, the global supply mix, etc. etc.
The EIA makes some strange assumptions about coal use increasing and renewables growing linearly, when they're already growing exponentially. My favorite EIA example of this is their 2009 outlook said by 2030, total solar capacity would be 12 GW. It surpassed 67GW this year.
Xcel just got bids for solar plus storage at $0.036/kWh. That's cheeeeeeeap. Things are already changing faster than the Outlook in January expected years from now.
"In the AEO2014 Reference case, oil prices are represented by spot prices for North Sea Brent crude. Prices decline in the Reference case from $112/barrel in 2012 to about $109/barrel in 2025 and then rise slowly to $130/barrel in 2035 and $141/barrel in 2040"
