Why the Flames will win the Western Conference again...

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It's one thing to say repeating is tough, it's another to try and discount last year's success due to reasons like a lack of injuries.

The Flames did have pretty good health last year, and a bunch of career years from many players, including their Norris winning d-man at an age where that was a complete surprise.

It's clearly a debatable point, whether you agree with it or not.

And that's the purpose of a thread like this, healthy debate.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The Flames did have pretty good health last year, and a bunch of career years from many players, including their Norris winning d-man at an age where that was a complete surprise.

It's clearly a debatable point, whether you agree with it or not.

And that's the purpose of a thread like this, healthy debate.

So you don't notice a posting trend in his history?

If not you're very likely in a very small minority.

But past that ... get out! Teams with good results in the standings have relative health and career performances from their players?

Mind is blown.

That was my point. It's obvious that teams have to have things go well on many fronts to have monster seasons. But that doesn't discount those results.

The Flames are young and likely to have career seasons, and youth also probably means less injuries.

Hopefully they are equally lucky this year.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Locke

...this team needs to perform in the playoffs and that has to happen before the playoffs. Last season we saw all of the fat and sassy 'early-clinchers' get absolutely smoked.

They've got to fight for the last part of the season and come into the playoffs in fighting shape, ready to eat raw meat.

I get what you are saying, but the two scenarios (early clinchers and raw meat eaters) are not mutually exclusive. Yes, last year the top teams did a face plant, but how often does this occur? In 2018 the four conference finalists were also all Division winners who cliched well before other teams.

The point is that the NHL playoffs are incredibly random—much more so than probably any other professional sport—it’s part of what makes the NHL playoffs so great in the first place. I don’t put a lot of stock in last year’s playoff results because insofar as next year is concerned, they are practically meaningless. There is no secret formula: teams need to be very good, very lucky, and they also must experience the right “chemical reaction” at precisely the right time. The St Louis Blues did not crack the code to becoming a champion last year; rather, things went well enough for them at the right time for them to win.

In the end, I believe the Flames are good enough, and with some good fortune and timing they should be able to have a successful and long season.


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[Bingo]

Tierney has his team projections out this morning.

Calgary at 100 points and win the division.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1165621050119544833

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Tierney has his team projections out this morning.

Calgary at 100 points and win the division.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1165621050119544833

There is some interesting stuff going on here:

• Dallas wins the Central, Chicago returns to the playoffs, and Colorado miss.
• SJ takes a big step back, but grabs a playoff spot on the strength of a weak Division. Anaheim jumps back into contention, Arizona places well behind Vancouver who takes a big step forward, and they all miss.
• NYI and Carolina both miss out, and Montreal returns to the playoffs. Pittsburgh has a resurgence and finishes ahead of Columbus.

I think he is on track, but overrates Dallas, Anaheim, Vancouver and Montreal. I think NJ and Colorado will both be better than he projects.


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[Vinny01]

Had the Kadri deal gone through I believe the Flames would have been the clear cut favorite in the west this year. Without that deal I still think they are a top 3-4 team with the ability to repeat.

I think the top line will continue to produce at a high level. I think Tkachuk, Dube, Mangipane, Bennett can all improve in the forward ranks. While Gio could see a step back I am hopeful Hanifin has a breakout year and gets closer to reaching his potential as a future number 1 Dman.

I believe the goaltending and bottom 6 have been upgraded and the rest of the team remains intact. We likely do not have the injury luck we did last year but this team has depth at most positions and most of their players are young enough to improve significantly. I also feel the playoff loss has this team hungry to get back to the playoffs and they will
Be a confident bunch from the get go.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Tierney has the Flames winning the division and the Panthers making the playoffs?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

There is some interesting stuff going on here:

• Dallas wins the Central, Chicago returns to the playoffs, and Colorado miss.
• SJ takes a big step back, but grabs a playoff spot on the strength of a weak Division. Anaheim jumps back into contention, Arizona places well behind Vancouver who takes a big step forward, and they all miss.
• NYI and Carolina both miss out, and Montreal returns to the playoffs. Pittsburgh has a resurgence and finishes ahead of Columbus.

I think he is on track, but overrates Dallas, Anaheim, Vancouver and Montreal. I think NJ and Colorado will both be better than he projects.


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I like that his model spits out what it spits out.

You can challenge the results, and I'm sure he does and tweaks all the time, but the answer is the answer. He was surprised by Dallas, Florida and Chicago to the plus, and Colorado, Arizona, Carolina, Buffalo and the Rangers to the negative.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I get what you are saying, but the two scenarios (early clinchers and raw meat eaters) are not mutually exclusive. Yes, last year the top teams did a face plant, but how often does this occur? In 2018 the four conference finalists were also all Division winners who cliched well before other teams.

The point is that the NHL playoffs are incredibly random—much more so than probably any other professional sport—it’s part of what makes the NHL playoffs so great in the first place. I don’t put a lot of stock in last year’s playoff results because insofar as next year is concerned, they are practically meaningless. There is no secret formula: teams need to be very good, very lucky, and they also must experience the right “chemical reaction” at precisely the right time. The St Louis Blues did not crack the code to becoming a champion last year; rather, things went well enough for them at the right time for them to win.

In the end, I believe the Flames are good enough, and with some good fortune and timing they should be able to have a successful and long season.


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Sure, but we have a long and storied history of playoff faceplants. Sometimes you have to make your own luck.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Yep when we recently bought a vacation house I made sure that we could handle major repairs and appliance failures. I appreciate what a great location it is in and how nice it is to be there but look at the things that can go wrong and actually take steps to deal with problems that might come with the good stuff.

As far as hockey goes I was a suzie-sunshine kind of fan a decade back. I started a thread "When do the Flames pass the Canucks in the Standings"

The Canucks won the division and the Flames missed the playoffs.

My unabated Flames booster-ism was beaten out of me with years of near constant disappointment to my high expectations.

Today I can't imagine living my life that way.

Whoa whoa whoa, are you actually trying to pull this again? Dude, you're a Jets fan and every time you get exposed as one you stop posting for a few months then come back and try again. It's hilarious.

Serious question - Why not just post as a Jets fan? I'm assuming you're an adult if you're buying a vacation property. So what's the allure of posting as an opposition fan pretending to be a Flames fan?

Is it cause you think you're comments will carry more weight?

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think you're well aware that I'm not saying that.

The guy finds the darkest corner of every room on almost every single topic.

It's one thing to say repeating is tough, it's another to try and discount last year's success due to reasons like a lack of injuries.

I even said in this discussion that I'm more worried about the first round of the playoffs over the conference title.

Bingo, he's a Jets fan. This has happened a few times over the years and when busted he tries to ignore it and if that doesn't work he disappears for awhile.

Look at his posts through the lens of a Jets fan and it all makes a lot more sense.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Locke

Sure, but we have a long and storied history of playoff faceplants. Sometimes you have to make your own luck.

I'm not going to argue the team's playoff success rate, it's been rough.

But they're all different.

Five years ago they beat they should, and then were plucky in a five game series loss to the Ducks.

Three years ago they were swept but played well enough to have been up 3-1 through four games.

Both of those suggested better things ahead.

Last year was a complete mess. And while I'd love to just ignore it it's hard ... it's the taste in the mouth until we see something else. No push back. Avs in their heads. Team playing scared. Makes you wonder about their backbone.

[dammage79]

You could argue that those last 3 playoff series losses were due to puck luck or the lack thereof.

Honestly though, last years was gross. Mike Smith was the best player. He gave them a chance.

Didnt like Gaudreau the last two games.

[Strange Brew]

Just my two cents... this is a fan site and I wish people wouldn't be so judgmental of other fans or try to decipher their motivations. Isn't it good enough just to talk hockey and debate the actual points being raised, and not worry about who the 3 or 4 pessimists are?

On the topic, I'm pretty confident Flames get back to 100+ points. I expect we will see the standings very bunched as some of the perennial bottom feeders in the west should be better this year. The playoff flameout should help the team get off to a strong start and be in the mix for at least the division championship.

Peters might be the x factor, besides the obvious injuries and goaltending. This group is hard on coaches it seems, and I could see them tune him out at some point. But hopefully they play the season with a chip on their shoulder.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Tierney has his team projections out this morning.

Calgary at 100 points and win the division.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1165621050119544833

Can't agree with some of these including the Devils and I think the Flyers win their division. The CBJ are gonna be bad.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Just my two cents... this is a fan site and I wish people wouldn't be so judgmental of other fans or try to decipher their motivations. Isn't it good enough just to talk hockey and debate the actual points being raised, and not worry about who the 3 or 4 pessimists are?

On the topic, I'm pretty confident Flames get back to 100+ points. I expect we will see the standings very bunched as some of the perennial bottom feeders in the west should be better this year. The playoff flameout should help the team get off to a strong start and be in the mix for at least the division championship.

Peters might be the x factor, besides the obvious injuries and goaltending. This group is hard on coaches it seems, and I could see them tune him out at some point. But hopefully they play the season with a chip on their shoulder.

If you're not inherently a pessimist then you havent been a Flames fan long enough.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

There is some interesting stuff going on here:

• Dallas wins the Central, Chicago returns to the playoffs, and Colorado miss.
• SJ takes a big step back, but grabs a playoff spot on the strength of a weak Division. Anaheim jumps back into contention, Arizona places well behind Vancouver who takes a big step forward, and they all miss.
• NYI and Carolina both miss out, and Montreal returns to the playoffs. Pittsburgh has a resurgence and finishes ahead of Columbus.

I think he is on track, but overrates Dallas, Anaheim, Vancouver and Montreal. I think NJ and Colorado will both be better than he projects.


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Dallas #2 (17M)in Cap lost to injury last year, Ana #1 (18M+) , Vancouver #4 (13M)

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Locke

If you're not inherently a pessimist then you havent been a Flames fan long enough.

I avoid that because the past doesn't compile for me.

The current management team + the current coaching staff + the current roster is either a group that should have success or it isn't.

Change any of the three of those and you have to reevaluate.

But I'm not all that worried about any other era or past playoff failures; they just don't have a bearing on this season or this year's playoffs to me.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Dallas #2 (17M)in Cap lost to injury last year, Ana #1 (18M+) , Vancouver #4 (13M)

Careful on those cap lost quotas.

Teams like Arizona have purposeful dead cap that gets included. Plus teams can have crappy players with big tickets out that would have little impact on actual on ice play.

Anaheim for example, had Perry for most of the year (they bought him out), and Kesler who's essentially done.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Had the Kadri deal gone through I believe the Flames would have been the clear cut favorite in the west this year. Without that deal I still think they are a top 3-4 team with the ability to repeat.

I think the top line will continue to produce at a high level. I think Tkachuk, Dube, Mangipane, Bennett can all improve in the forward ranks. While Gio could see a step back I am hopeful Hanifin has a breakout year and gets closer to reaching his potential as a future number 1 Dman.

I believe the goaltending and bottom 6 have been upgraded and the rest of the team remains intact. We likely do not have the injury luck we did last year but this team has depth at most positions and most of their players are young enough to improve significantly. I also feel the playoff loss has this team hungry to get back to the playoffs and they will
Be a confident bunch from the get go.

IMO Gio-Brodie >> Hamilton-Gio >>>>> Gio-Andersson

Kadri would have to improve the team more than Gio being the Norris trophy winner last year.