2019 NFL Season Thread

[DropIt]

It's the devil you know. You may think anyone can step in and do enough to win games with an elite defense but Chase Daniel sure cant figure it out, neither could Mike Glennon.

If you let go of Trubisky and decide to move forward with a Paxton Lynch, you've gained nothing and you start all over again, and definitely with a new coach and GM.

[Senator Clay Davis]

It's the dilemma for sure. Realistically Flacco/Eli is the model for the Trubisky's/Josh Allen's of the world, get hot and run the table. But these are guys you need a good to great team around them to win. It's not like Rodgers or Peyton or Mahomes where they can carry an average team or worse very far. But because you have to pay the Trubisky's/Josh Allen's of the world $25 million+, you have a much harder time putting a good to great team around them. At some point we'll reach the breaking point with QB contracts, but until we do teams without a truly elite QB are stuck hoping everything breaks right.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by DropIt

It's the devil you know. You may think anyone can step in and do enough to win games with an elite defense but Chase Daniel sure cant figure it out, neither could Mike Glennon.

If you let go of Trubisky and decide to move forward with a Paxton Lynch, you've gained nothing and you start all over again, and definitely with a new coach and GM.

Those are two extremes though, right? I think I've seen enough of Wentz to know that he probably won't ever be in the "elite" discussion, but he's good enough to win if you put a strong cast around him, so I think you can justify shelling out for him. He probably can't elevate the team beyond it's talent but he's not going to actively hurt the team either. I'm finding it kind of interesting how the issues surrounding Wentz (injuries, accuracy issues, lack of weapons) are very similar to the issues that surrounded Donovan McNabb during his Eagles career .

Trubisky, on the other hand, was actively hurting the Bears earlier this year (to be fair, he's been a bit better recently). The defense did more than enough to give them chances to win the games against GB, OAK, LAC, and PHI, and Trubisky was a big reason why they lost, even if Nagy isn't totally blameless. I think there's an argument to be made that if the Bears get league average QB play this year, they're in the running to win the NFC North. If the Eagles had league average QB play, they're in the running for a top 5 pick.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Doesn't need to be a top 10 pick to be your franchise QB.

Brady - 199
Jackson - 32
Garoppolo - 62
Rodgers - 24
Wilson - 75
Brees - 32
Mahomes - 10
Watson - 12
Prescott - 135

Those are the QBs of the 8 division leaders (+Seattle) right now. Only Mahomes is a top 10 pick, and only 3 of 9 are even first round picks.

Here are the current starting QBs that were top 10 picks.

Murray (1)
Ryan (3)
Allen (7)
Trubisky (2)
Mayfield (1)
Rivers (4)
Goff (1)
Darnold (3)
Wentz (2)
Winston (1)
Tannehill (8)
Jones (6)
Mahomes (10)

I know which list of QBs I'm taking and it's the one that doesn't have a single top 5 pick on it.

That's really cherry-picking your data though. The historical evidence is pretty strong that QBs taken in the first round are far more likely to put up better careers than those taken in the later rounds.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Not to continue harping on Trubisky cause it's dead horse territory, but when you have an elite defense like the Bears have, you gotta try and cash while he's on the rookie deal (and when you sacrifice draft capital like they did to get Mack). The Eagles, to their credit, actually did cash while Wentz was on his rookie deal (though ironically not because of him). The Chiefs have a similar problem on the horizon since Mahomes will probably touch $40 million a year or close, but you have way more faith Mahomes can carry less than great teams across the line because he probably would have last year if Dee Ford just lined up onside.

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Those are two extremes though, right? I think I've seen enough of Wentz to know that he probably won't ever be in the "elite" discussion, but he's good enough to win if you put a strong cast around him, so I think you can justify shelling out for him. He probably can't elevate the team beyond it's talent but he's not going to actively hurt the team either. I'm finding it kind of interesting how the issues surrounding Wentz (injuries, accuracy issues, lack of weapons) are very similar to the issues that surrounded Donovan McNabb during his Eagles career .

Trubisky, on the other hand, was actively hurting the Bears earlier this year (to be fair, he's been a bit better recently). The defense did more than enough to give them chances to win the games against GB, OAK, LAC, and PHI, and Trubisky was a big reason why they lost, even if Nagy isn't totally blameless. I think there's an argument to be made that if the Bears get league average QB play this year, they're in the running to win the NFC North. If the Eagles had league average QB play, they're in the running for a top 5 pick.

He definitely was awful to start the season, but everyone was.

He didnt play the game in Oakland and even though he wasnt good, I'd argue he gave the team a chance to beat the Chargers.

I would love to have a top end QB, but you're also painting an ideal picture where he can be replaced with ease. If the Bears end up a 5 win team next year, then absolutely you try and grab a replacement QB to take over but if they wind up winning 9 orn10 games next year the odds of finding a starter to replace him arent great. You could end up using 1st round capital on a Lynch, Hackenburg or Kizer. Then you've set yourself up to start the process all over again.

Realistically their only chance at improving their QB position is by acquiring Cam Newton (arguable) and I dont think the cost in picks and difference in salary puts them in any better a position.

To churn middling QBs through a program without missing a beat, you can only really draft one after the 2nd round and cross your fingers... or give up another huge return to get into the top 5-10.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by rubecube

That's really cherry-picking your data though. The historical evidence is pretty strong that QBs taken in the first round are far more likely to put up better careers than those taken in the later rounds.

Oh for sure if you took the ratio of QBs taken in round 1 vs the rest of the draft then you are more likely to have better careers from a historical perspective.

My argument was more against his point of "Even if the Bears did have their first round pick this year, they are most likely going to consistently end up at drafting in the back half of the draft and you dont find franchise QB there."

Which is a false statement.

You can hit on a QB from anywhere in the draft, and my point was more that most franchise QBs in the league right now actually weren't taken with top 10 picks.

Do you have better odds with a top 10 pick historically? Sure

Does that mean you have no chance or shouldn't try to improve at QB because you don't have a top 10 pick? No, because if that was the situation then teams like the Ravens and Packers would not have drafted guys like Rodgers/Jackson when they did.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by DropIt

He definitely was awful to start the season, but everyone was.

He didnt play the game in Oakland and even though he wasnt good, I'd argue he gave the team a chance to beat the Chargers.

I would love to have a top end QB, but you're also painting an ideal picture where he can be replaced with ease. If the Bears end up a 5 win team next year, then absolutely you try and grab a replacement QB to take over but if they wind up winning 9 orn10 games next year the odds of finding a starter to replace him arent great. You could end up using 1st round capital on a Lynch, Hackenburg or Kizer. Then you've set yourself up to start the process all over again.

Realistically their only chance at improving their QB position is by acquiring Cam Newton (arguable) and I dont think the cost in picks and difference in salary puts them in any better a position.

To churn middling QBs through a program without missing a beat, you can only really draft one after the 2nd round and cross your fingers... or give up another huge return to get into the top 5-10.

I think the Bears are kind of stuck with him for next year anyways because of their cap situation but, for a team with very few holes, it might make sense to use one of those second round picks and take a chance on a project like Jalen Hurts or someone similar that they can develop for a year while Trubisky tries to prove if he's worth a big money extension.

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

It's the dilemma for sure. Realistically Flacco/Eli is the model for the Trubisky's/Josh Allen's of the world, get hot and run the table. But these are guys you need a good to great team around them to win. It's not like Rodgers or Peyton or Mahomes where they can carry an average team or worse very far. But because you have to pay the Trubisky's/Josh Allen's of the world $25 million+, you have a much harder time putting a good to great team around them. At some point we'll reach the breaking point with QB contracts, but until we do teams without a truly elite QB are stuck hoping everything breaks right.

The question there is what does 25 million look like in 2022 with the salary cap going up. Watson and Mahomes will deservedly see huge raises, Rodgers Wilson, Jackson will all be paid, or about to be paid big money.

If Trubisky sits at 25 million beside other QBs like Foles, Mayfield, Darnold then it remains relative across the league in terms of cap percentage used.
If MT starts asking for 35 million, he either just had an outstanding season or he is simply asking too much and at that point will be released

[ResAlien]

Did Jacksonville fans argue this vehemently for Blake Bortles? I think that’s Mitchell’s closest comparable.

[rubecube]

In other news, Alshon Jeffery is done for the year with a suspected achilles rupture, so the Eagles passing game is unbelievably going to get even worse. Good news for Stamps fans is this likely means Marken Michel gets called up from the PS.

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Oh for sure if you took the ratio of QBs taken in round 1 vs the rest of the draft then you are more likely to have better careers from a historical perspective.

My argument was more against his point of "Even if the Bears did have their first round pick this year, they are most likely going to consistently end up at drafting in the back half of the draft and you dont find franchise QB there."

Which is a false statement.

You can hit on a QB from anywhere in the draft, and my point was more that most franchise QBs in the league right now actually weren't taken with top 10 picks.

Do you have better odds with a top 10 pick historically? Sure

Does that mean you have no chance or shouldn't try to improve at QB because you don't have a top 10 pick? No, because if that was the situation then teams like the Ravens and Packers would not have drafted guys like Rodgers/Jackson when they did.

No but those two situations are slightly different. Both GB and Baltimore had a QB in place and weren't on the uptick. If the Bears are truly in a position to win, it's hard to use draft capital that high on a player that may not play for you.

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Did Jacksonville fans argue this vehemently for Blake Bortles? I think that’s Mitchell’s closest comparable.

Based on his all around worse stats and terrible record I guess that's a good comparison? Aside from draft position and the fact Bortles could scramble theres really nothing compareable between them. Good try though

[GirlySports]

Waiting to see where Herbert is drafted. Hes the next comparible.

Nadal Fan will remember Jake Locker.

[rubecube]

I was also just reminded of the fact that during this offseason, Howie Roseman inexplicably guaranteed Alshon's contract for 2020, so it'll now cost the Eagles $27M in dead cap money to cut a 30 year-old WR who was already showing major signs of decline and now a blown achilles.

For all the credit Howie got for the Super Bowl win, he's been an absolute debacle since.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Waiting to see where Herbert is drafted. Hes the next comparible.

Nadal Fan will remember Jake Locker.

If teams haven't learned their lessons by now with PAC-12 QBs (Aaron Rodgers basically being the only recent exception), they deserve everything they get.

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I was also just reminded of the fact that during this offseason, Howie Roseman inexplicably guaranteed Alshon's contract for 2020, so it'll now cost the Eagles $27M in dead cap money to cut a 30 year-old WR who was already showing major signs of decline and now a blown achilles.

For all the credit Howie got for the Super Bowl win, he's been an absolute debacle since.

He did the exact same thing in Chicago. Played big until he got paid and then nagging injuries started to surface and his play started to drop.
When he is on, he has WR1 talent and may be amongst the best in the league when it comes to winning 50/50 balls, and blocks well...but when he doesnt come to play he brings as little effort as anyone I've watched

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by DropIt

He did the exact same thing in Chicago. Played big until he got paid and then nagging injuries started to surface and his play started to drop.
When he is on, he has WR1 talent and may be amongst the best in the league when it comes to winning 50/50 balls, and blocks well...but when he doesnt come to play he brings as little effort as anyone I've watched

I think anyone who watched him last year could see he was slowing down. There was just no reason to guarantee that contract. The Eagles might be one of the best case studies in NFL history of letting success go to your head. Obviously injuries have played a role, but there have been so many puzzling decisions that turned what should have been a team built to contend for several years into one whose window has pretty much closed already.

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Waiting to see where Herbert is drafted. Hes the next comparible.

Nadal Fan will remember Jake Locker.

I think Mariota is probably the closest example right now? The hope is just for Trubisky to continue to progress where Mariota appears to have peaked and then regressed.

[DoubleK]

The NFL needs to grow some balls and exclude the Patriots from the playoffs.