2022: The year the world returns to war?

[Ducay]

US has announced a bunch of direct lethal aid shipments have either arrived or are pending to Ukraine. Silly it took covering Biden's word slip (re: small incursion) to kick the US into gear on support. Also asking US citizens to leave the country wholesale.

Given the number of countries directly sending arms, support staff, or otherwise and broadly messaging it - you can tell they're worried something is imminent and hoping to dissuade Putin.

Basically we'll either have a stalemate for a while, or some sort of false flag or accident will occur to kick things off on Russia's takeover of the Donbas. But I'd say we're close to the precipice

[CroFlames]

I can't wrap my head around what Putin's end-game is?

Is he willing to sacrifice so much, just to gain a few pockets of Ukraine territory that has Russian minority/majority populations? Doesn't add up.

Or is this a mega distraction for something about to go down in the far east?

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I can't wrap my head around what Putin's end-game is?

Is he willing to sacrifice so much, just to gain a few pockets of Ukraine territory that has Russian minority/majority populations? Doesn't add up.

Or is this a mega distraction for something about to go down in the far east?

Its a really good question - you could have said the same thing with Crimea, and even then they had deepwater access @ Sevastopol and more strategic ports/land (i.e I still don't think it made sense given the risk for Russians, obviously it panned out OK for them).

But here, beyond a show of force and "patriotic" reunification of ethnic Russian areas, Donbas is pretty useless. Russia's main goal right now in the area is to push back NATO and avoid full Ukrainian membership - perhaps he hopes to negotiate that as part of a de-escalation/ceasefire eventually?

I don't get why the West isn't more motivated to pull Ukraine in as a full NATO member quicker and just face Russia head on. All the other former USSR wall states that've joined (Poland, Latvia, Lithu) seem to enjoy their status and safety.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Ducay

US has announced a bunch of direct lethal aid shipments have either arrived or are pending to Ukraine.

Admittedly, this is a great oxymoron that I've been reading over and over.

[TherapyforGlencross]

Originally Posted by Ducay

US has announced a bunch of direct lethal aid shipments have either arrived or are pending to Ukraine. Silly it took covering Biden's word slip (re: small incursion) to kick the US into gear on support. Also asking US citizens to leave the country wholesale.

Given the number of countries directly sending arms, support staff, or otherwise and broadly messaging it - you can tell they're worried something is imminent and hoping to dissuade Putin.

Basically we'll either have a stalemate for a while, or some sort of false flag or accident will occur to kick things off on Russia's takeover of the Donbas. But I'd say we're close to the precipice

As well, the US Embassy is evacuating all non-essential staff. The situation is deteriorating to say the least

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by Ducay

US has announced a bunch of direct lethal aid shipments...

American “lethal aid” to Ukraine will be lethal only to those poorly trained Ukrainian soldiers who attempt to employ it in combat. This is for domestic American consumption only, and it’s sad that so many Americans are falling for it.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I can't wrap my head around what Putin's end-game is?

Is he willing to sacrifice so much, just to gain a few pockets of Ukraine territory that has Russian minority/majority populations? Doesn't add up.

Or is this a mega distraction for something about to go down in the far east?

I think his end game is to take as much as he can and he won’t stop at just Donetsk and Luhansk. He wants to rebuild the USSR/Russian empire. He is also promoting irredentist movements everywhere he can in Europe.

In the end, the West and NATO will let him just like they let him take Crimea. I fear for people in Ukraine, but I think when push comes to shove, the West backs down and avoids war that way. Especially considering NATO is showing division on the matter with Germany being non-committed at this point.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by Ducay

All the other former USSR wall states that've joined (Poland, Latvia, Lithu) seem to enjoy their status and safety.

One of the most dangerous aspects of NATO’s irresponsible eastward expansion is that we took a bunch of underweight Pomeranians (Poland, the Baltic States) and made them think they were Rottweilers. Little dogs contribute nothing to the Pack except to generate unnecessary angst.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I think his end game is to take as much as he can and he won’t stop at just Donetsk and Luhansk. He wants to rebuild the USSR/Russian empire. He is also promoting irredentist movements everywhere he can in Europe.

Russia doesn't want Ukraine. No one wants Ukraine. It doesn't have anything going for it. Ukraine's only purpose to NATO is to antagonize Russia. Putin's "end game" is to keep (1) NATO off his borders; and (2) keep US offensive tactical missiles out of range of Russia. That is, out of Poland and Romania.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

Russia doesn't want Ukraine. No one wants Ukraine. It doesn't have anything going for it. Ukraine's only purpose to NATO is to antagonize Russia. Putin's "end game" is to keep (1) NATO off his borders; and (2) keep US offensive tactical missiles out of range of Russia. That is, out of Poland and Romania.

Russia wants the buffer to protect their oil and gas supplies. It’s too risky for them to have a NATO partner bordering that region. The Nazis didn’t really want Ukraine either but natural landscape of Ukraine make it natural highway to Russia’s prized assets.

[Baron von Kriterium]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Russia wants the buffer to protect their oil and gas supplies. It’s too risky for them to have a NATO partner bordering that region.

Yes, which is what I wrote: "1) NATO off his borders."

But what I really mean when I state that Russia doesn't want Ukraine is that Russia doesn't want to occupy the land and then be obligated to look after the people, deal with a possible insurgency, and rebuild infrastructure destroyed in a conflict.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

Yes, which is what I wrote: "1) NATO off his borders."

But what I really mean when I state that Russia doesn't want Ukraine is that Russia doesn't want to occupy the land and then be obligated to look after the people, deal with a possible insurgency, and rebuild infrastructure destroyed in a conflict.

I'd beg to differ. They would move into eastern Ukraine in a heartbeat and set up government and infrastructure conducive to the movement of Russian troops. UK has also announced today that Moscow is intending to install a pro-Kremlin president in Ukraine.

I have no doubt that Russia is probably intending to control gas pipeline infrastructure owned by Naftohaz Ukrayiny, and "solve" the many historical gas disputes with Gazprom, giving them a more firm grip on energy supply logistics too.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I'd beg to differ. They would move into eastern Ukraine in a heartbeat and set up government and infrastructure conducive to the movement of Russian troops. UK has also announced today that Moscow is intending to install a pro-Kremlin president in Ukraine.

I have no doubt that Russia is probably intending to control gas pipeline infrastructure owned by Naftohaz Ukrayiny, and "solve" the many historical gas disputes with Gazprom, giving them a more firm grip on energy supply logistics too.

Yes, I was about to say the same thing. They could take Ukraine over by making them a satellite. Force them to capitulate, annex what land they want, they install a dictator of their choosing. They can keep a border on paper, but still rule Ukraine completely.

[Ozy_Flame]

I thought this was an interesting comment from Reddit and helps understand some of the context to Russian interest in Ukraine.

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/c...raines/htt601v

[White Out 403]

Nm lol

[White Out 403]

What I find absolute bizarre is that nobody in the mainstream media or even Independent Media are reminding the people that there is an agreement in place with Ukraine. Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal for guarantees that should Russia invade they would be defended. I don't recall there being a 20 year warranty period on that.

[Locke]

This trainwreck is like watching a bad breakup.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Baron von Kriterium

One of the most dangerous aspects of NATO’s irresponsible eastward expansion is that we took a bunch of underweight Pomeranians (Poland, the Baltic States) and made them think they were Rottweilers. Little dogs contribute nothing to the Pack except to generate unnecessary angst.

I have to ask. Did you use that dog breed specifically for the region itself or just a random small dog/

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

What I find absolute bizarre is that nobody in the mainstream media or even Independent Media are reminding the people that there is an agreement in place with Ukraine. Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal for guarantees that should Russia invade they would be defended. I don't recall there being a 20 year warranty period on that.

I have heard this too but were there actually any formal agreements? I have also heard that Ukraine demanded Russia remove them because they didn’t want to have to pay for the incredibly expensive maintenance required for nuclear weapons.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I have heard this too but were there actually any formal agreements? I have also heard that Ukraine demanded Russia remove them because they didn’t want to have to pay for the incredibly expensive maintenance required for nuclear weapons.

Yes. The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances.