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Old 07-19-2019, 03:00 PM   #1
SuperMatt18
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Flames 2017-2019: Comparing the performance of Lucic & Neal

I'm going to start by saying I still don't like this deal. The trade itself gave the Oilers the ability to buy out Neal after next season - and that in itself provides then with a lot of value just because that wasn't an option for them with Lucic.

However after doing some digging it turns out that the advanced stats and counting stats aren't actually that far apart for these two over the last two seasons.

The last two seasons would include both of Lucic's "bad" seasons in Edmonton, and Neals okay VGK season and "bad" season in Calgary. So you'd think this comparison should favour Neal...but it doesn't.

If you look at the last two seasons at 5v5:

Counting Stats:

Neal:
GP: 134
G: 22
A: 20
P: 42
Shots: 264
Shooting Percentage: 8.33%
Hits: 88

Lucic:
GP: 161
G: 11
A: 28
P: 39
Shots: 185
Shooting Percentage: 5.95%
Hits: 492

That's actually way closer than I thought it would be. Neal the better goal scorer but not as good of a distributor, and doesn't play physical Anymore. Lucic's shot seems to have dissapeared but he can still hit.

Advanced Stats:

Neal:
CF%: 50.5%
CF% Rel: -1.76%
HDCF%: 47.4%
GF%: 46.4%
xGF%: 48.1%
xGF% Rel: -4.69%
PDO: .992
Offensive Zone Start: 59.5%

Lucic
CF%: 50.9%
CF% Rel:2.09%
HDCF%: 50.8%
GF%: 47.1%
xGF%: 51.2%
XGF% Rel: 2.3%
PDO: .992
Offensive Zone Start: 49.8%

From an advanced stat perspective Lucic has actually been much better than Neal over the last two seasons.

He's been better from a raw number perspective, better from a relative to teammates perspective, and did it with tougher zone starts.

Overall I still think Treliving is crazy to do this since it helps the Oilers out too much - but from an on ice perspective this actually doesn't make the Flames much worse next season, and helps fill a hole from a physicality perspective. And probably helps the locker room since Lucic is more suited to a bottom 6 role, where it appears that Neal may not have been happy in that same role.

Last edited by SuperMatt18; 07-19-2019 at 03:05 PM.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:01 PM   #2
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I think this confirms Bennett as a middle 6 RW.

Gaudreau - Tkachuk - Mangiapane - Lucic

I am also willing to bet that Lucic helps this team significantly in terms of grit and style of play. As long as we limit his minutes to a bottom 6 player there shouldn't be a problem with this.

EDIT: Neal was just not a good fit on this team.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:12 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan View Post
I think this confirms Bennett as a middle 6 RW.

Gaudreau - Tkachuk - Mangiapane - Lucic

I am also willing to bet that Lucic helps this team significantly in terms of grit and style of play. As long as we limit his minutes to a bottom 6 player there shouldn't be a problem with this.

EDIT: Neal was just not a good fit on this team.
Lucic is going to be better? The Flames bottom 6 is/was moving to young, skilled players that can skate. At least Neal can still shoot the puck and would be hard pressed not to see a slight uptick in production after a bad year.

Tossing Lucic, one of the worst skaters in the league, who also has very limited skills into the mix is just dumb. This team was already slow (see Avalanche series) and is somehow found a way to get even slower.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:16 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus View Post
Lucic is going to be better? The Flames bottom 6 is/was moving to young, skilled players that can skate. At least Neal can still shoot the puck and would be hard pressed not to see a slight uptick in production after a bad year.

Tossing Lucic, one of the worst skaters in the league, who also has very limited skills into the mix is just dumb. This team was already slow (see Avalanche series) and is somehow found a way to get even slower.
Neal was already slow. We signed him to be a top 6 player. He isn't. Clearly management views Neal as a long goner in terms of ever being a top 6 player again. I am assuming this is why we got Lucic who would be better suited for a 4th line role.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:17 PM   #5
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You'll never convince me this is a good trade. Up until an hour ago in the Edmonton thread it was still a laugh fest about him being an unmovable load of crap. He is a terrible skater and brings nothing.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:19 PM   #6
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Interesting, Lucic is almost a year younger then Neal.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:20 PM   #7
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Wow. Neal was useless but I feel like Tre made this move because we missed out on Kadri...
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:22 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus View Post
Lucic is going to be better? The Flames bottom 6 is/was moving to young, skilled players that can skate. At least Neal can still shoot the puck and would be hard pressed not to see a slight uptick in production after a bad year.

Tossing Lucic, one of the worst skaters in the league, who also has very limited skills into the mix is just dumb. This team was already slow (see Avalanche series) and is somehow found a way to get even slower.
You think our team is slow? Not sure who you have been watching.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:25 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Bonded View Post
Wow. Neal was useless but I feel like Tre made this move because we missed out on Kadri...
I don't think Kadri had any bearing on it. We were hearing rumours of Tre trying to move Neal since before the draft
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:27 PM   #10
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Lucic had more than twice as many hits last season than Bennett who is #1 on the current roster (135 more hits). I am looking forward to the Flames not being the softies of the NHL.

Lucic-Ryan-Bennett can potentially be a very solid line.

Still need an improvement in the Top 6 though.

Also, the cap savings on this deal may have just paid for a bump in Mangiapane's salary.

Last edited by keenan87; 07-19-2019 at 03:30 PM.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:27 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by dissentowner View Post
You think our team is slow? Not sure who you have been watching.
To be fair this team did look and play slow in the playoff series against The Avs.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:33 PM   #12
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The Avs were faster because they played without fear. That will change, look for something to happen in game 1 in October.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:36 PM   #13
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Also, Neal playing with McDavid and scoring 20 goals isn't really a good thing for the Oilers either. They need to saddle their franchise player with a player making almost $6.5 million (Neal Salary + Retention).. which is way different than Maroon and Chiasson making minimum money. Imagine if the Oilers had a legitimate top line guy making that $6.5 million -- they could probably score 40 goals.

Last edited by keenan87; 07-19-2019 at 03:39 PM.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:40 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18 View Post
I'm going to start by saying I still don't like this deal. The trade itself gave the Oilers the ability to buy out Neal after next season - and that in itself provides then with a lot of value just because that wasn't an option for them with Lucic.

However after doing some digging it turns out that the advanced stats and counting stats aren't actually that far apart for these two over the last two seasons.

The last two seasons would include both of Lucic's "bad" seasons in Edmonton, and Neals okay VGK season and "bad" season in Calgary. So you'd think this comparison should favour Neal...but it doesn't.

If you look at the last two seasons at 5v5:

Counting Stats:

Neal:
GP: 134
G: 22
A: 20
P: 42
Shots: 264
Shooting Percentage: 8.33%
Hits: 88

Lucic:
GP: 161
G: 11
A: 28
P: 39
Shots: 185
Shooting Percentage: 5.95%
Hits: 492

That's actually way closer than I thought it would be. Neal the better goal scorer but not as good of a distributor, and doesn't play physical Anymore. Lucic's shot seems to have dissapeared but he can still hit.

Advanced Stats:

Neal:
CF%: 50.5%
CF% Rel: -1.76%
HDCF%: 47.4%
GF%: 46.4%
xGF%: 48.1%
xGF% Rel: -4.69%
PDO: .992
Offensive Zone Start: 59.5%

Lucic
CF%: 50.9%
CF% Rel:2.09%
HDCF%: 50.8%
GF%: 47.1%
xGF%: 51.2%
XGF% Rel: 2.3%
PDO: .992
Offensive Zone Start: 49.8%

From an advanced stat perspective Lucic has actually been much better than Neal over the last two seasons.

He's been better from a raw number perspective, better from a relative to teammates perspective, and did it with tougher zone starts.

Overall I still think Treliving is crazy to do this since it helps the Oilers out too much - but from an on ice perspective this actually doesn't make the Flames much worse next season, and helps fill a hole from a physicality perspective. And probably helps the locker room since Lucic is more suited to a bottom 6 role, where it appears that Neal may not have been happy in that same role.
needs penalty diff stat...
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:40 PM   #15
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:41 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18 View Post
I'm going to start by saying I still don't like this deal. The trade itself gave the Oilers the ability to buy out Neal after next season - and that in itself provides then with a lot of value just because that wasn't an option for them with Lucic.

However after doing some digging it turns out that the advanced stats and counting stats aren't actually that far apart for these two over the last two seasons.

The last two seasons would include both of Lucic's "bad" seasons in Edmonton, and Neals okay VGK season and "bad" season in Calgary. So you'd think this comparison should favour Neal...but it doesn't.

If you look at the last two seasons at 5v5:

Counting Stats:

Neal:
GP: 134
G: 22
A: 20
P: 42
Shots: 264
Shooting Percentage: 8.33%
Hits: 88

Lucic:
GP: 161
G: 11
A: 28
P: 39
Shots: 185
Shooting Percentage: 5.95%
Hits: 492

That's actually way closer than I thought it would be. Neal the better goal scorer but not as good of a distributor, and doesn't play physical Anymore. Lucic's shot seems to have dissapeared but he can still hit.

Advanced Stats:

Neal:
CF%: 50.5%
CF% Rel: -1.76%
HDCF%: 47.4%
GF%: 46.4%
xGF%: 48.1%
xGF% Rel: -4.69%
PDO: .992
Offensive Zone Start: 59.5%

Lucic
CF%: 50.9%
CF% Rel:2.09%
HDCF%: 50.8%
GF%: 47.1%
xGF%: 51.2%
XGF% Rel: 2.3%
PDO: .992
Offensive Zone Start: 49.8%

From an advanced stat perspective Lucic has actually been much better than Neal over the last two seasons.

He's been better from a raw number perspective, better from a relative to teammates perspective, and did it with tougher zone starts.

Overall I still think Treliving is crazy to do this since it helps the Oilers out too much - but from an on ice perspective this actually doesn't make the Flames much worse next season, and helps fill a hole from a physicality perspective. And probably helps the locker room since Lucic is more suited to a bottom 6 role, where it appears that Neal may not have been happy in that same role.
I wrote this post about a month ago and it's a bit more simplistic than yours, but illustrates that there isn't much difference between Neal and Lucic offensively, and you can infer that if Lucic wasn't playing in Edmonton he'd likely be better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Flash Walken View Post
Eriksson - .36 ppg
Neal - .30 ppg
Lucic - .25 ppg

Of course, Neal averaged more icetime per game and a minute more powerplay time than either guy.

Total Icetime
Eriksson: 1139 / 29 = 1 point every 39 mins
Neal: 942 / 19 = 1 point every 50 mins
Lucic: 1045 / 20 points = 1 point every 52 mins

Even Strength
Eriksson: 939 / 26 = 1 point every 36 mins
Neal: 802 / 13 = 1 point every 62 mins
Lucic: 939 / 16 = 1 point every 59 mins

PowerPlay
Eriksson: 102 / 3 = 1 point ever 34 mins
Neal: 139 / 6 = 1 point ever 23 mins
Lucic: 106 / 4 = 1 point every 27 mins


It's pretty freakin' close with Eriksson being the best of the 3.

Basically if you gave Neal's minutes with Calgary to Lucic last year he's probably a significantly better offensive player but also brings another dimension that Neal simply doesn't have.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:45 PM   #17
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Put it this way, Lucic getting 20 points with the line mates he had was a freaking miracle.

I'm not a fan of the trade still but I am excited to see how he can do in a 3rd/4th line role with better line mates. When he made the playoffs with the Oilers he put up 6 points in 13 games. That's not too bad.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:56 PM   #18
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needs penalty diff stat...
That comes down to the physical play though.

Lucic had 492 hits in that time, and Neal had 88, that’s going to cause one of those guy to take more penalties.

Treliving seemed to want a guy that can play a physical role and PIMs come with that.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:58 PM   #19
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You'll never convince me this is a good trade. Up until an hour ago in the Edmonton thread it was still a laugh fest about him being an unmovable load of crap. He is a terrible skater and brings nothing.
Flames fans will try all summer to put lipstick on this pig but I side with everyone outside of Calgary laughing at the Flames. Dark day today.
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Old 07-19-2019, 04:00 PM   #20
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Flames fans will try all summer to put lipstick on this pig but I side with everyone outside of Calgary laughing at the Flames. Dark day today.
I'll wait to hear the rest of the deal before making up my mind, but as it stands now, definitely not happy
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