Russia invades Ukraine

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I have to think that they must have intelligence that suggests a real possibility of escalation if the blockade of Kalingrad continues. There is probably something they know that they don't want to share.

Kind of telling though that Lithuania is against lightening up when they are the ones that would be directly in the line of fire if things escalated.

NATO has to be careful how these wedge issue affect their alliance.

Like Germany marching in the infantry and saying this is now Koenigsberg?

[karl262]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I have to think that they must have intelligence that suggests a real possibility of escalation if the blockade of Kaliningrad continues. There is probably something they know that they don't want to share.

Kind of telling though that Lithuania is against lightening up when they are the ones that would be directly in the line of fire if things escalated.

NATO has to be careful how these wedge issue affect their alliance.

There is no blockade, Russia is not being denied access to Kaliningrad ports.

[Huntingwhale]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1542581959553171458

Will be interesting to see what happens around Kaliningrad. By the sounds of it, Lithuania isn't down with appeasing Russia (thanks Germany ). Nor should they. Thanks for the weapons Germany...but sack up and STFU.

Nick Schifrin:

Last week, Lithuania stopped goods traveling on train between Russia and Belarus and Kaliningrad.

Russia has made threats in response to that. How serious do you believe the Russian possibility of responding militarily is?

Gitanas Nausėda:

I don't believe in such scenario, because, since 2004, we are NATO member. And we have very clear assurances, which were repeated many times also by President Joe Biden, that Article 5 is sacred, rock-solid.

And it's not so easy to make harm on Lithuania, because we are quite well-prepared. We did our homework, because, since the very beginning, since the regaining of our independence, we realized that Russia is long-term threat. And, probably, we have to prepare.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/li...war-in-ukraine

At least one country and president has balls.

[chemgear]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1542220135305564160

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1542951057403305985

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by karl262

There is no blockade, Russia is not being denied access to Kaliningrad ports.

I guess I don't really understand the difference between a blockade and sanctions that prevent materials and goods from entering an area. I just now realized that Russia is calling it a blockade, while most Western media sources are using lighter language. I just assumed they meant the same thing, but I guess there is something in the language used that makes it different.

Anyway, if a blockade is worse by definition, then maybe there should be one. Nothing Russian should be allowed to go through NATO waters, land, or air space.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Maybe I'm wrong but I've always assumed that a blockade has an actual physical presence involved to ensure that nothing that's not supposed to get through doesn't get through - basically like a police road checkpoint.

[greyshep]

Noticed this somehow fell off the first page. I hope this doesn’t suggest we have started to forget about this heinous invasion by Russia.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by greyshep

Noticed this somehow fell off the first page. I hope this doesn’t suggest we have started to forget about this heinous invasion by Russia.

I think most of us still think on it and try to follow the news, but have just run out of things to say.
I'm no more clear on how this ends than I was 2 months ago.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

I think most of us still think on it and try to follow the news, but have just run out of things to say.
I'm no more clear on how this ends than I was 2 months ago.

Not to mention, our immediate neighbour has been hitting the crazy sauce super hard lately, like someone's going to take it away from them.

[Monahammer]

Unfortunately, Russia has settled from it's outrageous tactics at the beginning of the conflict into a more cautious and slow rolling approach focusing on steam rolling specific smaller regions. It seems to be working, albeit at a snails pace. But the reality is that they can and will outlast Ukrainian forces in the current situation as supplies run low and support starts to dwindle from the West. A lack of conviction from EU on sanctions (like we're seeing against Kaliningrad) will harm morale as well.

I am certainly still thinking of this conflict, but the situation is increasingly poor.

[Old Yeller]

I heard on the news last night that the latest estimates to rebuild Ukraine are on the order of about $1 trillion USD... just seems so wasteful and pointless.

It's hard not to be pessimistic of our species sometimes.

[calumniate]

I've succumbed to looking at reddit for updates. Lots of suspect stuff being posted but a lot of chatter still going on. Part of it is that the information / location / logistics war is so sensitive, I don't think any party is totally willing to publicize details right now.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by calumniate

I've succumbed to looking at reddit for updates. Lots of suspect stuff being posted but a lot of chatter still going on. Part of it is that the information / location / logistics war is so sensitive, I don't think any party is totally willing to publicize details right now.

It's jarring when you come across the odd pro-Russian posts on reddit. Like how can you be celebrating the capture of Ukrainians soldiers or the destruction of Ukrainian property? I mean I know, but still.

[Geraldsh]

I only learned about Kaliningrad on this thread - googled it and thought wtf that place should have been emptied the day Crimea was taken.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Geraldsh

I only learned about Kaliningrad on this thread - googled it and thought wtf that place should have been emptied the day Crimea was taken.

They will use the same plan in the parts of Ukraine they claim as they did back then in Kaliningrad. Remove much of the Ukraine population and fill it up with Russians.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

They will use the same plan in the parts of Ukraine they claim as they did back then in Kaliningrad. Remove much of the Ukraine population and fill it up with Russians.

I think 99.9% of Germans don't even want it back because it's filled with Russians now. Most of it's neighbors would probably welcome it being German again I'd bet.

An interesting part of the German constitution is that there's a statement along the lines of the current borders of Germany are the true and historic Germany and that they renounce all claims to anything outside of the present day Germany.

The crazy part is that traditional Prussia (which is basically the predecessor of actual Germany along with Bavaria) is like 50% outside of present day Germany. There was some serious ethnic cleansing and genocide by the Red Army AFTER the war that many people don't talk about.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

It's jarring when you come across the odd pro-Russian posts on reddit. Like how can you be celebrating the capture of Ukrainians soldiers or the destruction of Ukrainian property? I mean I know, but still.

Then best to not have a look at some of the Russian telegram groups. Just a cesspool of people that will further make you wish for the collapse of Russia. People cheering on missiles hitting malls, supporting raping women & children and still going on about Nazis and fascists...when it is they themselves who are acting like Nazis and fascists.

That country is full of POS people who blindly support this stupid war.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I think 99.9% of Germans don't even want it back because it's filled with Russians now. Most of it's neighbors would probably welcome it being German again I'd bet.

An interesting part of the German constitution is that there's a statement along the lines of the current borders of Germany are the true and historic Germany and that they renounce all claims to anything outside of the present day Germany.

The crazy part is that traditional Prussia (which is basically the predecessor of actual Germany along with Bavaria) is like 50% outside of present day Germany. There was some serious ethnic cleansing and genocide by the Red Army AFTER the war that many people don't talk about.

The elimination of Prussia was by design. Prussia was seen as the warlike portion of German intention, and thus by permanently sundering Prussia it was seen that Germany may lose some bellicosity.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I think 99.9% of Germans don't even want it back because it's filled with Russians now. Most of it's neighbors would probably welcome it being German again I'd bet.

An interesting part of the German constitution is that there's a statement along the lines of the current borders of Germany are the true and historic Germany and that they renounce all claims to anything outside of the present day Germany.

The crazy part is that traditional Prussia (which is basically the predecessor of actual Germany along with Bavaria) is like 50% outside of present day Germany. There was some serious ethnic cleansing and genocide by the Red Army AFTER the war that many people don't talk about.

Back in the Soviet days, the Russian SSR actually proposed to hand the Kaliningrad Oblast to the Lithuanian SSR, but the leader of the Lithuanian Communist Party rejected the plan for that exact reason. He knew that taking on a large Russian population was not in Lithuania's best interests in the long term, hence why the oblast today is still considered part of "Russia".

There are some small fringe movements there that want separation from Russia to either join Poland or Lithuania, or to have outright independence as a Balto-Russian nation aligned with the West. There isn't enough support to make these movements relevant just yet, but there could be enough basis to start the long game there.