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Old 08-04-2022, 10:40 AM   #61
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If nuclear would fix that, then why are France's baseload power prices almost 30% higher than Germany's?
Probably because France's nuclear power plants are currently operating at less than half of capacity...they are basically running what they were in the early 90s, so now they do have to rely on more imports.

Despite their relatively pro-nuclear reputation in the past, France has been plagued by deferred maintenance, divestment, and general operator incompetence. In 2015, France passed a law to start their own "green energy transition" which aimed to reduce their reliance on nuclear from 75% to 50%, which has led to more active divestment of capital in the sector. Thankfully this decommissioning has now been delayed, and they are actually planning to build more new reactors.

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Old 08-04-2022, 12:12 PM   #62
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But those are spot prices for a year from now. If it was just a temporary thing due to nuclear shutdowns, you wouldn't expect prices to be so much higher than Germany, who is presumably much more exposed to gas shortages/price spikes. Though it might have to do with the fact that France has had to temporarily shut down plants because the cooling water from the rivers is too warm, which might be a recurring problem during the summer months going forward, so perhaps they're anticipating this to be an annual occurrence.
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Old 08-04-2022, 12:59 PM   #63
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If nuclear would fix that, then why are France's baseload power prices almost 30% higher than Germany's?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1554457214290739206
50% of the French nuke fleet is offline for one reason or another.
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Old 08-04-2022, 01:18 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
But those are spot prices for a year from now. If it was just a temporary thing due to nuclear shutdowns, you wouldn't expect prices to be so much higher than Germany, who is presumably much more exposed to gas shortages/price spikes. Though it might have to do with the fact that France has had to temporarily shut down plants because the cooling water from the rivers is too warm, which might be a recurring problem during the summer months going forward, so perhaps they're anticipating this to be an annual occurrence.
I'm sure the warm rivers aren't helping, but they already had 28 reactors (out of 56) down due to maintenance and corrosion issues before summer even hit. So who knows how "temporary" it's going to be....nuclear isn't exactly known for its speed!

Either way, it's been a longer term decline in output and investment that started way before this summer. French nuclear energy output peaked in 2005 when they produced 452 TWh. It was down to 361 Twh by 2021 (so before any Russia/Gas crisis), and this year estimates are around 295-315 Twh. And as I mentioned, since 2015 there's been a government mandate to go from 75% of electricity from nuclear to 50%...I guess shutting down half of your reactors due to divestment/incompetence is a pretty good way to meet those goals!

Just as a comparison, Germany produced 171 TWh at its peak in 2001. It was down to about 65 TWh last year, and with the original planned phase-out by 2022, the eventual plan is of course to go to zero. Nuclear power used to generate a quarter of Germany's electricity... I'm sure that would come in handy these days. Instead the worlds 4th largest economy is now firing up mothballed coal and oil power plants, while people stock up on wood and diesel generators.

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Old 09-01-2022, 09:52 AM   #65
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lol. Might want to do something about those water shortages and maybe run a few natural gas or nuclear plants? But lets not let reality get in the way of blackouts.

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California officials declared a statewide grid emergency to cope with surging demand for power amid a blistering heat wave, raising the prospect of rolling blackouts.

The California Independent System Operator issued a level-1 energy emergency alert around 3:10 p.m. local time Wednesday after tapping all of its available power supplies. The notice, which comes after officials asked homes and businesses to conserve, is a warning that the state is anticipating power shortages.

The order also warned that the grid operator, known as Caiso, forecasts potential electricity shortages of 3 gigawatts each evening from Sept. 4 through Sept. 6.

The worst dry spell in 1,200 years has gripped nearly every inch of California with drought this summer, leaving rivers and reservoirs perilously low. That has significant implications for a state that generates about 10% of its electricity from hydroelectric dams and has aggressively closed natural-gas power plants in recent years.

The grid operator reported that about 9 gigawatts of power-generating capacity wasn’t available Wednesday, including a 480 megawatt natural-gas unit in Southern California. A gigawatt is enough to power about 750,000 homes in California.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/ca...70187-article/
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Old 09-01-2022, 11:19 AM   #66
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The state that is having trouble maintaining its energy grid today, is the same one that wants to ban the sale of ICE cars in just over a decade so everyone shifts over to electric. Yeah, that's going to go smoothly.

At least they came to their senses with extending the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant, even if it's only for 5 years. Considering what their energy needs will be, and it often takes a decade to build them, they should be starting on building a crapload of additional plants ASAP.
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Old 09-01-2022, 11:23 AM   #67
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Yep. They are a lightning strike away from a mega loadshedding event.
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Old 09-01-2022, 11:26 AM   #68
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It will be really interesting watching California as a bellwether jurisdiction to EV adoption considering it's power challenges. As EV ownership rises, they need 10% more power on the grid, but don't really seem to have a plan on that. Cutting off EV charging is an easy place to reduce demand.

I suspect those who can afford it will have panels and battery storage to get through it, but it doesn't help people who can't afford that, and are forced into EV ownership, with no power to get them to work.
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Old 09-01-2022, 11:33 AM   #69
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Between California, Texas, and what we're seeing in Europe, it's pretty clear that electricity deregulation is a complete mess unless you have basically endless supply of power.

Germany's 1-year ahead electricity prices were cut in half in a matter of days after a threat of government intervention, suggesting that prices were being significantly driven up by speculators:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1565312744873754624
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Old 09-01-2022, 02:16 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by Azure View Post
lol. Might want to do something about those water shortages and maybe run a few natural gas or nuclear plants? But lets not let reality get in the way of blackouts.



https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/ca...70187-article/
It's not like we don't have problems from time to time.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1475670535719710720
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Old 09-01-2022, 04:44 PM   #71
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Between California, Texas, and what we're seeing in Europe, it's pretty clear that electricity deregulation is a complete mess unless you have basically endless supply of power.
ERCOT and CALISO have very different regulatory compacts.

The OPG/Hydro One cluster in Ontario is arguably worse from a ratepayer perspective.

In your opinion, who has gotten this right? There are arguments for and against State-owned utilities, energy only markets and capacity markets.
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Old 09-07-2022, 04:04 PM   #72
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It's not like we don't have problems from time to time.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1475670535719710720
Who is we?

I don't remember the last blackout we had here in Manitoba.

Are forced blackouts common in Alberta? When I lived there I don't remember a single one over a 21 year period.
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Old 09-07-2022, 04:08 PM   #73
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ERCOT and CALISO have very different regulatory compacts.

The OPG/Hydro One cluster in Ontario is arguably worse from a ratepayer perspective.

In your opinion, who has gotten this right? There are arguments for and against State-owned utilities, energy only markets and capacity markets.
I think Manitoba Hydro has gotten it right for the most part.

Built massive hydro capacity that provides ton of export capabilities.
Worked with First Nations to build transmission lines. Sure, some cost more money because of the ridiculous route requirements, but they were still built. Funny how that works. Still a massive long-term benefit for the province despite the added billions in cost.

Lots of 30 year contracts will be up for renewal soon, which will allow more flexibility and long term investments.
Ability to charge spot pricing = higher revenue.
Next step is to keep adding solar, wind, natural gas to allow pumped hydro to keep its capacity and further diversify the grid.

Obviously having massive hydro capacity helps, but only if you take advantage of it.
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Old 09-07-2022, 04:09 PM   #74
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1567502377015558144
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Old 09-07-2022, 05:53 PM   #75
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I think Manitoba Hydro has gotten it right for the most part.



Built massive hydro capacity that provides ton of export capabilities.

Worked with First Nations to build transmission lines. Sure, some cost more money because of the ridiculous route requirements, but they were still built. Funny how that works. Still a massive long-term benefit for the province despite the added billions in cost.

Only to have the entire board resign because the Premier doesn't understand the concept of mutual benefit agreements with Indigenous Peoples.

Exporting power to the US doesn't help Canada achieve grid resiliency or Net Zero.

I don't think there is a single jurisdiction in Canada that has gotten the electricity file 'right', rather each and every one has taken different approaches to screwing it up.
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Old 09-07-2022, 06:29 PM   #76
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6am (which is about the lowest demand time of the day in California in the summer) is "when it counts"? When it actually counts (at peak demand), renewables provided about 35% of the power for the state today, which is right in line with their share of installed capacity (26.5 of 80 GW are the latest numbers I've seen).
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Old 09-07-2022, 06:52 PM   #77
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ERCOT and CALISO have very different regulatory compacts.

The OPG/Hydro One cluster in Ontario is arguably worse from a ratepayer perspective.

In your opinion, who has gotten this right? There are arguments for and against State-owned utilities, energy only markets and capacity markets.
I don't know too much about the ins and outs of each specific setup. I just don't see any evidence that deregulated electricity markets benefit consumers. They seem to struggle with having adequate capacity and they generally expose consumers to market forces that can drive up costs. So it sort of creates the worst of both worlds.

I mean, the fact that Germany's year-ahead wholesale electricity prices dropped almost by half in the couple of days after the government threatened intervention illustrates that it's not solely the cost of generation that was driving prices up. The fact that power derivatives being speculated on can drive up an entire country's electricity prices is a failure.

I'm of the opinion that much like health care, electricity generation should either be handled or heavily regulated by the state. Though obviously that can come with its own set of issues.
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Old 09-07-2022, 07:00 PM   #78
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Only to have the entire board resign because the Premier doesn't understand the concept of mutual benefit agreements with Indigenous Peoples.

Exporting power to the US doesn't help Canada achieve grid resiliency or Net Zero.

I don't think there is a single jurisdiction in Canada that has gotten the electricity file 'right', rather each and every one has taken different approaches to screwing it up.
There are a lot of politics involved with Hydro. To be expected with a Crown Corporation.

Also, not selling power to other provinces is strictly due to provinces not working together. That being said, Sask is buying 350MW I believe.

The Hydro mandate is to make money with exports and slowly meet future Manitoba demand. This allows our prices to stay low while at the same time being able to handle any future growth.
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Old 10-25-2022, 11:30 AM   #79
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I came across this today. Better late than never; we should be building about 25 of these.

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Canada will provide C$970 million ($708 million) in financing to develop a grid-scale small modular reactor (SMR), a new nuclear technology touted as a key part of the country's plans to reduce emissions, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said on Tuesday
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OPG expects the SMR project to be completed by the end of the decade, and said in July that preparation work, such as building roads at the site, would start this year.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ng-2022-10-25/
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Old 10-25-2022, 11:42 AM   #80
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I came across this today. Better late than never; we should be building about 25 of these.





https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ng-2022-10-25/
Is this the Alberta partnership or something different? I see mention of Ontario but I thought Sask/Alberta/NB/Ontario were doing a joint venture in SMRs?
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