09-02-2020, 10:56 AM
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#41
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
I wouldn't call lists like this random.
I think subjective is a better word.
He has clear cut offs for age, so players exit based on a flat formula. Then he groups players into tiers, and applies the total by tier into a weighting to rank the organizations.
Just one guy's opinion, but clearly he likes the free agent signings, and maybe has more upside for a player or two on the Flames list.
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Plus he puts a higher weight or emphasis on his opinion of elite-level skill/potential.
Going back through some of this previous assessments there are some major whiffs. But you are right, one guy's opinion, he's doing his job, we're discussing it. If he was extremely astute he wouldn't be working in the media and some team would hire him.
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09-02-2020, 11:17 AM
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#42
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First Line Centre
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One of the things that rarely gets mentioned when it comes to college or overage free agent signings is how the draft went from 9 to 7 rounds after the lockout. That's 60 players who previously would have been picked left to mature outside of team control.
With Vegas and now Seattle the number will be down to 46 players who would have been selected in a 9 round draft.
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09-02-2020, 01:12 PM
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#43
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ComixZone
Yeah, the Mackey signing went a bit unheralded due to when it was signed (...doomsday and all that), but he was THE college UFA this year.
Frank Seravalli's take is here
This kid will be in the NHL next season, and I don't think it's crazy to think it will be full-time.
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I know very little about this player but would love to see him blossom. Here's hoping the Flames don't over invest in the blue line again.
If you intend to keep trading picks for d-men rentals at the deadline each year, I'd be OK with taking some risks at the start of the season with a young blueline supplemented by a journeyman or two on cheap one year deals.
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09-03-2020, 09:22 AM
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#44
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Crash and Bang Winger
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Vancouver
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Down to 13 still no Flames. Maybe he forgot us?
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09-03-2020, 09:39 AM
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#45
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Franchise Player
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Can someone please update the list so far?
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09-03-2020, 09:49 AM
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#46
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Can someone please update the list so far?
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And now for the rankings:
13. Los Angeles Kings
14. Chicago Blackhawks
15. Minnesota Wild
16. Winnipeg Jets
17. Dallas Stars
18. Detroit Red Wings
19. Columbus Blue Jackets
20. St. Louis Blues
21. Anaheim Ducks
22. Florida Panthers
23. Boston Bruins
24. Vegas Golden Knights
25. Tampa Bay Lightning
26. Edmonton Oilers
27. New York Islanders
28. San Jose Sharks
29. Nashville Predators
30. Pittsburgh Penguins
31. Washington Capitals
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09-03-2020, 09:49 AM
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#47
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Crash and Bang Winger
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Vancouver
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Caps
Pens
Preds
Sharks
Islanders
Oilers
Lightning
Knights
Bruins
Panthers
Ducks
Blues
Jackets
Wings
Stars
Jets
Wild
Blackhawks
Kings
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09-03-2020, 10:04 AM
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#48
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Franchise Player
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The team that really jumps out of that list for me (other than the Oilers, lol) is Detroit. It feels like they have sucked for a long time. But here are their recent seasons in reverse order (which shows how long it takes to truely suck):
2019: 31st
2018: 28th
2017: 26th
2016: 25th
2015: 16th
So it has taken them 5 years to get all the way to the bottom.
However, that doesn't explain their place on this list. What's weird is that, despite those bottom 5 finishes in the last 4 years, they have picked 6th, 6th, 9th and 20th. Combination of really bad luck in the lottery, plus maybe trading away a pick or two?
And where will they pick this year? 2nd?
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09-03-2020, 10:47 AM
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#49
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Franchise Player
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The draft lottery wasn’t kind to them at all. They are picking 4th, albeit in a strong draft, but missing out on the top 3 is rough for the franchise and their fans
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09-03-2020, 11:06 AM
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#50
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Fernando Valley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by agulati
The draft lottery wasn’t kind to them at all. They are picking 4th, albeit in a strong draft, but missing out on the top 3 is rough for the franchise and their fans
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I don't feel sorry for them as they had an incredible run of making the playoffs.
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09-03-2020, 11:07 AM
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#51
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by agulati
The draft lottery wasn’t kind to them at all. They are picking 4th, albeit in a strong draft, but missing out on the top 3 is rough for the franchise and their fans
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I think the lottery is overdone as a compensation to the luck of the morons to the north. A team should not be able to drop 3 spots. Detroit was clearly and obviously the worst team in the league. They should be no lower than 2nd. You can still have a multiple-pick lottery if you want, but the "no more than 1 pick drop" principle should override the result.
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09-03-2020, 11:22 AM
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#52
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada
I don't feel sorry for them as they had an incredible run of making the playoffs.
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That's fair.
I'd rather Red Wings though, than the teams that have tanked regularly to pick top 3 (Looks north)
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09-03-2020, 11:50 AM
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#53
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First round-bust
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: speculating about AHL players
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It's genuinely puzzling that the Flames are ahead of Chicago and LA.
__________________
"This has been TheScorpion's shtick for years. All these hot takes, clickbait nonsense just to feed his social media algorithms." –Tuco
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09-03-2020, 12:49 PM
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#54
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: The Void between Darkness and Light
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheScorpion
It's genuinely puzzling that the Flames are ahead of Chicago and LA.
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I really don't think it is based on how well the 2016 draft went for the Flames.
IMO, Tkachuk is still criminally underrated on this board.
He's the best player on the team.
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09-03-2020, 01:01 PM
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#55
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Franchise Player
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The lottery system set up as it does offers the potential for a team to be like the Rangers and luck their way into being a likely cup contender. They really didn't have many bad years, at least not bad like the Senators or the Red Wings, and then they have been able to get back to back top 2 picks in the draft. Combined with some good drafting at other positions and a defenseman who would only sign with them and they really have had better luck to propel them forward.
The Oilers/Sabres tanking and general awful play for a decade has really made it worse for truly bad teams to improve as their odds of getting a top pick have dropped as a result.
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09-03-2020, 01:04 PM
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#56
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UnModerator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: North Vancouver, British Columbia.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
The team that really jumps out of that list for me (other than the Oilers, lol) is Detroit. It feels like they have sucked for a long time. But here are their recent seasons in reverse order (which shows how long it takes to truely suck):
2019: 31st
2018: 28th
2017: 26th
2016: 25th
2015: 16th
So it has taken them 5 years to get all the way to the bottom.
However, that doesn't explain their place on this list. What's weird is that, despite those bottom 5 finishes in the last 4 years, they have picked 6th, 6th, 9th and 20th. Combination of really bad luck in the lottery, plus maybe trading away a pick or two?
And where will they pick this year? 2nd?
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Detroit has done some really awkward drafting. Passing on Quinn Hughes for Zadina and then reaching for a D-man the following year. Yeah, Zadina will probably end up a pretty good goal scorer and that German d-man is apparently pretty good too but they had the kid in their back yard. They saw him more than anyone and couldn't see this coming? A solid goal-scoring winger can be pretty easy to find in the draft, but a #1 dman is usually much harder to land.
__________________
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09-03-2020, 01:08 PM
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#57
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blaster86
Detroit has done some really awkward drafting. Passing on Quinn Hughes for Zadina and then reaching for a D-man the following year. Yeah, Zadina will probably end up a pretty good goal scorer and that German d-man is apparently pretty good too but they had the kid in their back yard. They saw him more than anyone and couldn't see this coming? A solid goal-scoring winger can be pretty easy to find in the draft, but a #1 dman is usually much harder to land.
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IIRC there was a decent contingent of the fan base who was lamenting this as soon as it happened.
On the other hand, Zadina seemed like he was slipping a bit from his top 3 position in the draft. I wonder if he's going on a similar trajectory to Puljujarvi?
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09-03-2020, 03:45 PM
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#58
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tromboner
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: where the lattes are
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler
I think the lottery is overdone as a compensation to the luck of the morons to the north. A team should not be able to drop 3 spots. Detroit was clearly and obviously the worst team in the league. They should be no lower than 2nd. You can still have a multiple-pick lottery if you want, but the "no more than 1 pick drop" principle should override the result.
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Disagree. A guaranteed top-2 pick is a huge incentive to shoot for last place.
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09-03-2020, 04:08 PM
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#59
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SebC
Disagree. A guaranteed top-2 pick is a huge incentive to shoot for last place.
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Let them shoot for last place. The draft is meant to ensure competitiveness - they have gone too far the other way. I would rather have a rule that a team can't win the lottery in consecutive years, or whatever similar, to deal with the Oilers/Rangers scenarios...
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09-03-2020, 04:46 PM
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#60
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tromboner
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: where the lattes are
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler
Let them shoot for last place. The draft is meant to ensure competitiveness - they have gone too far the other way. I would rather have a rule that a team can't win the lottery in consecutive years, or whatever similar, to deal with the Oilers/Rangers scenarios...
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We also have the cap to ensure competitiveness, so weakening the draft as a control mechanism makes sense. It should not be so strong that teams compete to be the biggest loser.
My ideal system has a lot of math involved and would require a lot of data analysis to factor probably (and the factors would change as new data comes in). It would account for prior draft positions, so the effect would be similar to banning consecutive wins. However, given a choice between the current system, and the current system but with a one position drop max, I take the current system as is.
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