Sam Bennett Value: Have the Flames held on TOO long? OR is he awesome?

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

I think the Bennett vs. Draisaitl comparison really illustrates how important opportunity is when developing a player. You need a young player to feel some offensive success so they can develop a feel for what works at the NHL level. And they need to have room to make mistakes, learn what doesn't work, and the get back out there and try again until they (hopefully) figure it out.

Bennett spent the better part of two years watching every decent play he made die on Troy Brouwer's stick. Is it any wonder he turned into a player that doesn't know how to use his linemates? I distinctly recall being impressed with his ability to win a puck in his own zone and start a breakout when he was first playing C, but it so rarely turned into offence. I think he got stuck in a horrible feedback loop where he couldn't produce, started trying to do too much and put too much pressure on himself. And meanwhile we had two other better lines so making mistakes meant his ice time got cut. Not a recipe for success.

Meanwhile, Draisaitl got 20 minutes a night, tons of open looks created by McDavid, and no matter how badly he played on a given night he's still getting double-shifted in the 3rd because they don't have a plan B. You could hardly create a better situation to develop a player.

You can argue all you want about a difference in talent between the players, but if you could go back in time and give 20yo Draisaitl 12 minutes a night between Versteeg and Brouwer and give 20yo Bennett 20 minutes a night on McDavid's wing, we're talking about very, very different players today.

Of all the things Gulutzan did wrong, Sam Bennett's misdevelopment has to rank at the very top.

I'm all for putting some blame on his development, but at some point it's the player's own body and they have to take responsibility for their play. Sometimes we all forget that there were various polls on CP during the 2015 playoff run and the grand consensus was that Bennett didn't need any time in the AHL and was ready for full-time NHL duty. A lot of us (myself included) got shut down for saying that even though he had a good playoff run, that entire team was super-lucky and some time in the A would do him well.

Putting their teams aside, it's obviously to anybody that watches both players that Draisatl is the superior player AINEC. It's easy to say that Draisatl got handed big minutes so of course he produced. Yet the Oilers are hardly the standard when it comes to gifting players fresh from the draft big minutes and having them succeed. I think Draisatl would have developed just fine regardless of if he had been put with garbage players like Bennett. At some point when you start using the excuse of the player having terrible linemates, you'll at least see glimpses of the skill and brilliance that made them such a high pick. Those glimpses started out decently with Bennett, then seemed to fade every season. He never shows those flashes when he's gets a chance to play with anyone in the top 6. Had Bennett been gifted more talented linemates since the start, I really do believe he'd have been an anchor like he is now.

He is what he is; a 3rd line player with jam. Nothing more.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Putting their teams aside, it's obviously to anybody that watches both players that Draisatl is the superior player AINEC. It's easy to say that Draisatl got handed big minutes so of course he produced. Yet the Oilers are hardly the standard when it comes to gifting players fresh from the draft big minutes and having them succeed. I think Draisatl would have developed just fine regardless of if he had been put with garbage players like Bennett.

Draisaitl has only been put with "garbage players" once.

He had 9 pts in 37 games that year as a 19 year old. Of those nine points, Taylor Hall, David Perron, or Jordan Eberle contributed to seven of them.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

I think the Bennett vs. Draisaitl comparison really illustrates how important opportunity is when developing a player. You need a young player to feel some offensive success so they can develop a feel for what works at the NHL level. And they need to have room to make mistakes, learn what doesn't work, and the get back out there and try again until they (hopefully) figure it out.

Bennett spent the better part of two years watching every decent play he made die on Troy Brouwer's stick. Is it any wonder he turned into a player that doesn't know how to use his linemates? I distinctly recall being impressed with his ability to win a puck in his own zone and start a breakout when he was first playing C, but it so rarely turned into offence. I think he got stuck in a horrible feedback loop where he couldn't produce, started trying to do too much and put too much pressure on himself. And meanwhile we had two other better lines so making mistakes meant his ice time got cut. Not a recipe for success.

Meanwhile, Draisaitl got 20 minutes a night, tons of open looks created by McDavid, and no matter how badly he played on a given night he's still getting double-shifted in the 3rd because they don't have a plan B. You could hardly create a better situation to develop a player.

You can argue all you want about a difference in talent between the players, but if you could go back in time and give 20yo Draisaitl 12 minutes a night between Versteeg and Brouwer and give 20yo Bennett 20 minutes a night on McDavid's wing, we're talking about very, very different players today.

Of all the things Gulutzan did wrong, Sam Bennett's misdevelopment has to rank at the very top.

you must not have paid attention to how Draisaitl's careers started.
he played 37 games at 12 minutes a game, was -17 and sent back to junior. Mcdavid wasn't even in the league yet.

I don't know who he played the most with in his second year. not sure where to look that up.

he was being mismanaged and then sent back to junior after 37 games. go back in calgary puck history. oilers were laughed at about Draisaitl by pretty well everyone on how he was managed and that at how his skating was not NHL level.

you can say it was probably for the best he was sent back to junior. that could be a big difference in his development compared to Bennett.

that and the fact Draisaitl worked his butt off in junior instead of pouting and also worked his butt off to correct deficiencies in his game, like his skating.

Draisaitl at this moment is more the result of a talented player working harder than anyone else to maximise that talent over team development. have you seen how oilers develop players?

Heck this year he's been a far better player than McDavid and in fact could be said to be carrying him.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

Heck this year he's been a far better player than McDavid and in fact could be said to be carrying him.

Draisatl may be having a superior season to this point, but in no way, shape, or form is he "carrying" Connor McDavid.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

you must not have paid attention to how Draisaitl's careers started.
he played 37 games at 12 minutes a game, was -17 and sent back to junior. Mcdavid wasn't even in the league yet.

I don't know who he played the most with in his second year. not sure where to look that up.

he was being mismanaged and then sent back to junior after 37 games. go back in calgary puck history. oilers were laughed at about Draisaitl by pretty well everyone on how he was managed and that at how his skating was not NHL level.

you can say it was probably for the best he was sent back to junior. that could be a big difference in his development compared to Bennett.

that and the fact Draisaitl worked his butt off in junior instead of pouting and also worked his butt off to correct deficiencies in his game, like his skating.

Draisaitl at this moment is more the result of a talented player working harder than anyone else to maximise that talent over team development. have you seen how oilers develop players?

Heck this year he's been a far better player than McDavid and in fact could be said to be carrying him.

In their 18yo seasons, when Bennett went down to Jrs, he put up 24 points in 11 games after rehabbing his shoulder all year, so it's not like he was slacking.

In their 19yo seasons, Draisaitl played 80+% of his ice time with Taylor Hall. Bennett played about 30% of his time with Mikael Backlund, and the Bennett-Backlund pair produced at a higher rate than the Draisaitl-Hall pair. The rest of his ice time was a random assortment of bottom-6ers.

In their 20yo seasons, Draisaitl played half of his time with McDavid. When together, they produced a lot. Away from McDavid, Draisaitl got his teeth kicked in. Away from Draisaitl, McDavid was even better. Bennett played about 40% of his ice time with Brouwer and another 40% with Chiasson. Bennett's numbers were overall better than Draisaitl away from McDavid.

In their 21yo seasons, Draisaitl was even worse away from McDavid, but even better with him. By this point, Bennett's numbers are really declining and he's pretty negative across the board.

Last year, Draisaitl had his worst season yet away from McDavid (36% GF), but was again very good with him. By this point, Bennett has sort of reinvented himself as a bottom-6 grinder and his possession stats have rebounded but he's pretty much what he is today.

And even this year, Draisaitl still plays about 90% of his ice time with McDavid. And Bennett is still a grinder with solid possession numbers but not much offense to speak of.


After their first two seasons, there was a very legitimate case that Bennett was the better player, and the difference in point totals was purely due to ice time and linemates. And still, to this day, Draisaitl hasn't ever been a positive player away from McDavid outside of a single playoff run with a 115 (!) PDO.

So no, I disagree with this idea that you can ascribe 100% of a player's success to his own hard work and talent, and it's just a coincidence that the one that succeeded just happened to have the best player of the last 10 years on his line. You obviously can't just throw any old plug there and turn them into a 50-goal scorer, but when you have a highly talented but raw young player, opportunity makes a massive, massive difference.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Are we really going to have to pretend to argue that the Oiler's are better at developing young players to try and spin the Bennett vs Draisaitl debate?

Let's just let it die, they are no longer in the same stratosphere of players.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Let's just let it die,

Or at least edit the thread title.

[Bingo]

I think there are two arguments here ... Bennett, potential and development. But also the idea that Calgary is in any way holding on to an asset too long, and is on the hook for a $2.25M player.

The first one ... I'm moving on from top six. Just don't think it's going to happen.

The second one? Please.

Bennett was a 1.57 Pts / 60 player last year. That is the 200th ranked most productive forward in the league which translates to a #7 or good third liner. The 200th ranked salary this year is $3.2M so he's actually underpaid.

This year he's off to a slow start and is producing more like a 10 guy (fourth line), and with that he's over paid by about $1M

Guessing he moves from his current 1.16 Pts /60 to something closer to the 1.57 he was last year at some point. At very least he'll close the gap.

He's good as an asset if you can get past the fact that he'll never be that top line guy.

If you re-rank the 2014 draft by points he's 11th.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Are we really going to have to pretend to argue that the Oiler's are better at developing young players to try and spin the Bennett vs Draisaitl debate?

Let's just let it die, they are no longer in the same stratosphere of players.

Not the Oilers. Specifically McDavid. I know they're no longer even close. But Bennett won't be the last young player with potential we ever draft. And I think putting the blame solely at Bennett's feet is unfair, and makes us more likely to repeat the same mistakes with the next high draft pick.

[Firebot]

Draisatl is in the same league of players as Malkin and Overchkin

Bennett could be out of the league within a year or two. And deservedly so. If Peters has his way Bennett may not even make it past the season.

Draisatl has 348 NHL points

Sam Bennett has 121 NHL points

Nail Yakupov has 136 NHL points

Sven Baertschi has 137 NHL Points

One of these is not like the others.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

Not the Oilers. Specifically McDavid. I know they're no longer even close. But Bennett won't be the last young player with potential we ever draft. And I think putting the blame solely at Bennett's feet is unfair, and makes us more likely to repeat the same mistakes with the next high draft pick.

The next high draft pick was Tkachuk. He's seemed to develop just fine.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Draisatl is in the same league of players as Malkin and Overchkin

Bennett could be out of the league within a year or two. And deservedly so. If Peters has his way Bennett may not even make it past the season.

Draisatl has 348 NHL points

Sam Bennett has 121 NHL points

Nail Yakupov has 136 NHL points

Sven Baertschi has 137 NHL Points

One of these is not like the others.

Bennett isn't Draisaitl but he's not on his way out of the league.

Teams have plenty of time for third line production at a decent salary level, a physical edge, and the ability to elevate when games matter.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

If you re-rank the 2014 draft by points he's 11th.

And 6th in games played.

Bennett will likely drop 4-5 spots on that list by the end of the season.

[Strange Brew]

Thing is, if you're the 200th (or so) best forward in the league, I believe there a few facts you have to ive with:

You won't be on a long term contract
You're always in danger of being replaced by younger, cheaper talent
You're an easy candidate for trade, to help balance the value in a deal involving more prominent players

All of which does likely mean Sam won't be a Flame for all of his career. My guess is the average 3rd liner moves round a lot.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think there are two arguments here ... Bennett, potential and development. But also the idea that Calgary is in any way holding on to an asset too long, and is on the hook for a $2.25M player.

The first one ... I'm moving on from top six. Just don't think it's going to happen.

The second one? Please.

Bennett was a 1.57 Pts / 60 player last year. That is the 200th ranked most productive forward in the league which translates to a #7 or good third liner. The 200th ranked salary this year is $3.2M so he's actually underpaid.

This year he's off to a slow start and is producing more like a 10 guy (fourth line), and with that he's over paid by about $1M

Guessing he moves from his current 1.16 Pts /60 to something closer to the 1.57 he was last year at some point. At very least he'll close the gap.

He's good as an asset if you can get past the fact that he'll never be that top line guy.

If you re-rank the 2014 draft by points he's 11th.

But you didn't factor in his moronic penalties. If you did he deserves to make $500k/year.

[SportsJunky]

Once I learned to live with Sam Bennett being a 3rd liner at best, I learned to accept Sam Bennett. I harbor no illusions with him. He has shown us what he is.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

The next high draft pick was Tkachuk. He's seemed to develop just fine.

He's spent his entire career on Backlund's wing in a top-6 role. Which is exactly my point: giving a young player consistent ice time with good linemates is an essential part of their development.

But Tkachuk is also an interesting comparable.

Rookie #1
With Backlund: 2.98 GF/60 1.83 GA/60
Without Backlund: 2.38 GF/60 3.17 GA/60

Rookie #2
With Backlund: 3.06 GF/60 1.70 GA/60
Without Backlund: 2.04 GF/60 2.81 GA/60


Two rookies, both dominant when playing on Backlund's wing, and both pretty brutal away from Backlund. Guess which one is Bennett and which one is Tkachuk? Can you honestly say one of these players was better than the other? The biggest difference in their results is Tkachuk spent 85% of his ice time with Backlund while Bennett only got 30%.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

And 6th in games played.

Bennett will likely drop 4-5 spots on that list by the end of the season.

Not really changing my point ...

He's a first round pick in a re-draft. This isn't a bust scenario

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Thing is, if you're the 200th (or so) best forward in the league, I believe there a few facts you have to ive with:

You won't be on a long term contract
You're always in danger of being replaced by younger, cheaper talent
You're an easy candidate for trade, to help balance the value in a deal involving more prominent players

All of which does likely mean Sam won't be a Flame for all of his career. My guess is the average 3rd liner moves round a lot.

For sure he could be traded, he's a not a core piece.

But the notion that he's on his way out of the league is silliness. There is a long way to fall from average third liner with a physical element to on the outside looking in.

He's in danger of losing a third line role to Dube, Mangiapane and the like for sure. But not losing his job outright.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think there are two arguments here ... Bennett, potential and development. But also the idea that Calgary is in any way holding on to an asset too long, and is on the hook for a $2.25M player.

The first one ... I'm moving on from top six. Just don't think it's going to happen.

The second one? Please.

Bennett was a 1.57 Pts / 60 player last year. That is the 200th ranked most productive forward in the league which translates to a #7 or good third liner. The 200th ranked salary this year is $3.2M so he's actually underpaid.

This year he's off to a slow start and is producing more like a 10 guy (fourth line), and with that he's over paid by about $1M

Guessing he moves from his current 1.16 Pts /60 to something closer to the 1.57 he was last year at some point. At very least he'll close the gap.

He's good as an asset if you can get past the fact that he'll never be that top line guy.

If you re-rank the 2014 draft by points he's 11th.

he's OK.
He's a middling 3rd line guy, or maybe a good 4th line guy. No one has any illusions that he's anywhere close to a top line guy anymore.