2020-21 NHL Season: formats, timelines, AHL/CHL implications, etc.

[powderjunkie]

Daly: NHL targeting 82-games, no guarantees

This will be their public stance, but 82 seems insane unless/until it is possible to have some ticket sales. I think there's a good chance they can sell to 20-25% capacity, but we'll get a better sense of this as the NFL or others take this path.

Sounds like Jan. 1 is a lot more likely than Dec. 1 at this point, which makes sense.

My predicted format (not necessarily my preference):

Spoiler!

- 4 games against each conference opponent. 0 against the rest. Means 56gp for western teams and 60gp for the east. NHL probably does wonky scheduling to achieve equality at the expense of balance; I'd prefer a perfectly balanced schedule than equal gp, even if it's not ideal for individual statistics.
- Teams only travel to each city once (always play the same team twice in a row in their building)
- 24 team playoff; no round robin for teams with a bye this time (but bo5 series start the day after regular season ends and are as tightly scheduled as this summer was).


Alternatively, I could see them starting with a phase 1 of only intra-divisional games only, and then re-assessing the next stages accordingly. Modified 'hubs' might be an option in this scenario, but there are a lot of possible permutations to that. Recall how few details weren't publicly finalized 2-3 weeks before these summer playoffs began...
- I've seen some suggestions of a Canadian only division. interesting idea, but I don't see it. Even the NHL should be able to come up with a plan less hamfisted than MLB

This thread will be primarily NHL focused, but I think there are a lot of interesting implications for the AHL/CHL that are inseparable. It's hard to imagine either league is viable this season without ticket sales? What are the current rumors/plans?

If those leagues aren't operational:

- how do teams handle prospect development?
- how are future draft picks affected? Are we going to see a few crops of players with exceptional individual skills, but less 5v5 refinement?

Idea:

Spoiler!

A 'bubble hub' for each division where each team runs a modified taxi squad:

- can be more of a 'campus' lifestyle since these aren't established NHLers
- CHL and AHL players
- ~4 spots per team for underage players, determined via a draft (teams fill positional needs, get the opportunity to evaluate and build a relationship with prospective draft picks)
- perhaps a 4v4 format to save costs and to mitigate the physical disparities between men vs. boys? Might need some other rule modifications to ensure safety?
- 'hub' period starts 2-3 weeks after NHL season starts, and concludes a full playoff by the end of the NHL season)
- involve CHL and AHL coaches/staff to keep those operations alive

[Lubicon]

It’s pretty much a non starter if the Canada/ US border remains closed. Not sure how they can play at all in that case, and I don’t see how a bubble can work over an extended time period.

[DoubleK]

24 team playoffs are here to stay.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Idea:

A 'bubble hub' for each division where each team runs a modified taxi squad:

- can be more of a 'campus' lifestyle since these aren't established NHLers
- CHL and AHL players
- ~4 spots per team for underage players, determined via a draft (teams fill positional needs, get the opportunity to evaluate and build a relationship with prospective draft picks)
- perhaps a 4v4 format to save costs and to mitigate the physical disparities between men vs. boys? Might need some other rule modifications to ensure safety?
- 'hub' period starts 2-3 weeks after NHL season starts, and concludes a full playoff by the end of the NHL season)
- involve CHL and AHL coaches/staff to keep those operations alive

This is actually a very interesting idea and would really put an emphasis on organizational depth. I would love to see how that would look over the course of a season.

You could even have rules like some European hockey or soccer teams have where a certain number of players need to be 23 or under at any given point. It would blend player development into the parent club more as well.

There isn't going to be a perfect solution for playing a full season with COVID in the background, but this could be a good compromise and an interesting experiment.

[Strange Brew]

Could you create an all Canadian division? Maybe they only play each other for first half of season or something like that?

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Could you create an all Canadian division? Maybe they only play each other for first half of season or something like that?

This is what MLS is trying to do. Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver just played each other 3 times each. Next week Toronto goes back across the border to play a few games with a 'home' game in Connecticut sandwiched in between. Montreal in Jersey and Vancouver in Portland.

For the Flames, they may play Vancouver and Edmonton a bunch of times, then go play some home games in Denver or something.

[ricardodw]

Does anyone have facts about what TV revenue is being generated?

The Canadian TV Ratings for August 24 - August 30 (straddling the political action delay) are the 25th most watched TV event in Canada. They were trounced by a Blue Bloods rerun.

That was a drop of around 20% from the week before

How much revenue is being generated by the TV and what is the net going into the NHL? The bubble process was not likely cheap.

The financials from the bubble hockey must be coming in and the NHL owners are getting some idea of the depth of the financial trouble they are in.

The NFL season opener was great, but down 13% from the 2019 season opener. It was highlighted by KC fans booing their favorite player of all time (Mahomes) in his BLM moment.


I have looked and could not find how the NBA TV is doing after their shut down and their return as a BLM infomercial.

At some point if TV viewership is going down the TV companies will not be paying more for the broadcast rights.

Are their viewership minimums? Is the NHL breaking the TV deals by not playing games in various cities?

At what point does the NHL just shut the season down and open smaller for the 2021-22 season?

[powderjunkie]

There are enough existing exceptions to the travel ban that I think the government can justify hockey, if they have a good enough plan.

NHL is stating they don't want a hub-based season, but I think there is a decent chance we end up with something along those lines. It's definitely a different kettle of fish than the current set-up, and it would be a tough sell to lock players down for 4 months.


Does the new CBA have any language regarding season length? I think there will need to be a negotiation about pro-rating player compensation...which will be fun.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

There are enough existing exceptions to the travel ban that I think the government can justify hockey, if they have a good enough plan.

NHL is stating they don't want a hub-based season, but I think there is a decent chance we end up with something along those lines. It's definitely a different kettle of fish than the current set-up, and it would be a tough sell to lock players down for 4 months.


Does the new CBA have any language regarding season length? I think there will need to be a negotiation about pro-rating player compensation...which will be fun.

The CBA says that the player salaries are pegged to 50% of revenue. With revenue down 75 % The real money paid to player will be around 20M per team.... The rest is in Canadian Tire money.

Not much of a chance of the owners covering expenses with arena rental, non-player salaries, office rental, accountants, lawyers, scouts out of their 20 million.

They also have seen the value of their franchises plummet.

The next thing to hit the fan is the Seattle expansion fees. Way too high to what the franchise will be worth.

How much more money does Flames owner Murray Edwards (living in London England) want to lose? As best as the internet can provide his Net worth has gone from 2.6 Billion in 2015 to 1.6 B in 2019 to 1.1B in 2020.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

There are enough existing exceptions to the travel ban that I think the government can justify hockey, if they have a good enough plan.

NHL is stating they don't want a hub-based season, but I think there is a decent chance we end up with something along those lines. It's definitely a different kettle of fish than the current set-up, and it would be a tough sell to lock players down for 4 months.


Does the new CBA have any language regarding season length? I think there will need to be a negotiation about pro-rating player compensation...which will be fun.

NHL players are “essential workers”.

[Corral]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Does anyone have facts about what TV revenue is being generated?

The Canadian TV Ratings for August 24 - August 30 (straddling the political action delay) are the 25th most watched TV event in Canada. They were trounced by a Blue Bloods rerun.

That was a drop of around 20% from the week before

How much revenue is being generated by the TV and what is the net going into the NHL? The bubble process was not likely cheap.

The financials from the bubble hockey must be coming in and the NHL owners are getting some idea of the depth of the financial trouble they are in.

The NFL season opener was great, but down 13% from the 2019 season opener. It was highlighted by KC fans booing their favorite player of all time (Mahomes) in his BLM moment.


I have looked and could not find how the NBA TV is doing after their shut down and their return as a BLM infomercial.

At some point if TV viewership is going down the TV companies will not be paying more for the broadcast rights.

Are their viewership minimums? Is the NHL breaking the TV deals by not playing games in various cities?

At what point does the NHL just shut the season down and open smaller for the 2021-22 season?

I don’t have the facts but my guess is the tv numbers are dismal. Hmmm. Should I enjoy the last month of outside summer in Canada or watch southern belt teams play in an empty arena. Not an easy sell for Rogers. I suspect Rogers is paying their lawyers big money to get out of next year broadcasting for this comedy show

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Does anyone have facts about what TV revenue is being generated?

The Canadian TV Ratings for August 24 - August 30 (straddling the political action delay) are the 25th most watched TV event in Canada. They were trounced by a Blue Bloods rerun.

That was a drop of around 20% from the week before

How much revenue is being generated by the TV and what is the net going into the NHL? The bubble process was not likely cheap.

The financials from the bubble hockey must be coming in and the NHL owners are getting some idea of the depth of the financial trouble they are in.

The NFL season opener was great, but down 13% from the 2019 season opener. It was highlighted by KC fans booing their favorite player of all time (Mahomes) in his BLM moment.


I have looked and could not find how the NBA TV is doing after their shut down and their return as a BLM infomercial.

At some point if TV viewership is going down the TV companies will not be paying more for the broadcast rights.

Are their viewership minimums? Is the NHL breaking the TV deals by not playing games in various cities?

At what point does the NHL just shut the season down and open smaller for the 2021-22 season?

People are paying to subscribe to sportsnet though...you can watch Blue Bloods and most of the other stuff for free legally or with the very min. package

Is streaming counted? Most younger people I know watch on sporstnet now ect. (subscription based)

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The CBA says that the player salaries are pegged to 50% of revenue. With revenue down 75 % The real money paid to player will be around 20M per team.... The rest is in Canadian Tire money.

With the CBA extension the 50% linkage is no longer annual, but over the course of the next 6 years (plus the year we are completing).

https://stories.featurd.io/2020/07/0...%20the%20deal.

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...ys-nhl-new-cba

Escrow withholding for 2018-19 was 12.9%, with 3.25% returned to players. So the official escrow loss for the players that season was 9.65%.

20% for 2020-21

Between 14% and 18% for 2021-22, depending on hockey-related revenue

10% in 2022-23

6% from 2023 through 2026

In addition, the players agreed to changes that will give the owners additional cash flow next season. They will defer 10% of their salaries next season, with it being returned to them in installments from 2022t to 2025 under more favorable escrow terms. NHL owners also will have access to this season's escrow 15 days after CBA is ratified.

It's unclear if the 10% deferral is a part of or in addition to the 20% escrow.

The players have to get back to within $125M of 50% of total HRR by the end of 2026 or else the CBA extends another year to make the owners whole.

How deep of a hole do the players want to dig themselves? Would it be more prudent for everyone to seek a shorter regular season and take a bigger haircut this year? Hope to get back on cycle and chase other revenue opportunities (world cups) as soon as they are feasible?