Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Milan Lucic: 50 CF%, 0 pts, -2, 0 S%, 12:01 Ice Time

James Neal: 43.6 CF%, 7pts, -1, 46.7 S%, 18:32 Ice Time

Make what you will of it, but when you see a dude with a better shooting % than a CF%...we’ll see where things shake out.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

But the WHOLE TEAM has been getting swamped in these first few games. How much of this is a team issue that will readjust with the unfolding of the season? As the team moves closer to their own potential, I suspect we will see better returns from the third line.

ComixZone - where on earth are you getting 50 CF% from? Lucic is at 42.47.

Textcritic - Individually, Lucic is the second worst player on the roster for getting swamped. Can we expect things to improve overall? Yes, because I expect the top line will improve. Can we expect the third line to improve? Probably, but any improvement will be limited because of the boat anchor we've attached to it.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don't agree with much you say but this is my feeling as well. You commit that much money and term to a player that pushes your team to the cap ceiling you owe it to put 100% into making it work and the Flames just didn't do that and in the process added a worse player for almost the same money so they turned was was supposed to be a major splash for that elusive goal scoring winger into the most expensive plugger in the league on a team that's never had an issue finding bottom six pluggers. Nobody will convince me that a small handful of fights a year is worth what Lucic brings to the team overall.

He played 45% of his minutes with Calgary's top five forwards, and was the 6th on the team in powerplay minutes last year.

He didn't produce or fit with anyone.

What hockey team just lets a guy play an entire season in a slot that he was envisioned in when it's clearly not working in order to "live up to a commitment"?

I wouldn't run a team or business like that.

The mistake of signing a player that was taking on water in terms of five on five play driving for years is another matter though. Treliving and his staff blew it.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

He played 45% of his minutes with Calgary's top five forwards, and was the 6th on the team in powerplay minutes last year.

He didn't produce or fit with anyone.

What hockey team just lets a guy play an entire season in a slot that he was envisioned in when it's clearly not working in order to "live up to a commitment"?

I wouldn't run a team or business like that.

The mistake of signing a player that was taking on water in terms of five on five play driving for years is another matter though. Treliving and his staff blew it.

I think more than anything, the salary and term given to neal is a reflection of the level of panic Flames management had about their ability to score goals after finishing 27th in the league for offense and spending all those picks on defenders.

Neal had no acquisition cost and the Flames were desperate.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I think more than anything, the salary and term given to neal is a reflection of the level of panic Flames management had about their ability to score goals after finishing 27th in the league for offense and spending all those picks on defenders.

Neal had no acquisition cost and the Flames were desperate.

I'm not sure about panic. But certainly Treliving was looking to fill a spot that he expected Brouwer to fill previously. I think the salary is a reflection of Treliving thinking (rightly or wrongly) that Neal was a valued commodity for other teams and that he potentially was in a bidding war. Treliving likes to win those - and IMO that may be his biggest flaw. He's done so on big and small examples: Foo, Czarnik, Neal.

I do believe that there was some essential homework missed on Neal. I don;t know why that happened.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

ComixZone - where on earth are you getting 50 CF% from? Lucic is at 42.47.

Textcritic - Individually, Lucic is the second worst player on the roster for getting swamped. Can we expect things to improve overall? Yes, because I expect the top line will improve. Can we expect the third line to improve? Probably, but any improvement will be limited because of the boat anchor we've attached to it.

Lucic has been a 50%+ player in every year of his career ... something that doesn't standout in Boston or LA but is a small miracle playing for the Oilers.

Has he lost it and will now be a boat anchor? Maybe, quite possible. Also possible though that the team settles in and he becomes a non event player that lets the third line play a physical brand without costing them defensively ... as he's show in previous year.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I think more than anything, the salary and term given to neal is a reflection of the level of panic Flames management had about their ability to score goals after finishing 27th in the league for offense and spending all those picks on defenders.

Neal had no acquisition cost and the Flames were desperate.

I honestly hope so.

They were thin on the right side and thin in goal scoring so they overlook the warts of the guy that scores 20 every year and gamble that he can help the window before he falls off a cliff.

I like that better than "we just looked up his stats and the dude can score" and that was the summation of their analysis.

Man I wanted Steinberg to ask Snow that the other day. I know he couldn't but wouldn't it be great to sit down with that guy over a pint and go over decisions?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I'm not sure about panic. But certainly Treliving was looking to fill a spot that he expected Brouwer to fill previously. I think the salary is a reflection of Treliving thinking (rightly or wrongly) that Neal was a valued commodity for other teams and that he potentially was in a bidding war. Treliving likes to win those - and IMO that may be his biggest flaw. He's done so on big and small examples: Foo, Czarnik, Neal.

I do believe that there was some essential homework missed on Neal. I don;t know why that happened.

Neal scored at a decent rate everywhere he played. There was no reason in my opinion that Treliving couldn't have expected that. Plus he has a bit of a nasty edge that the team was missing. On paper, he was exactly what the team needed and I don't blame him at all for signing Neal. It just didn't work out... it happens.

I figured there was a really good chance that he would light it up on another team. Players just don't typically fall off a cliff that quickly.

I still don't mind the trade as it is likely that Neal would still be twisting in the wind if he was on the Flames. At least Lucic adds something and I actually don't think he has been as bad as people are saying. He was involved on a couple of plays that could have been decent chances if his linemates didn't blow it (looking at you last night Sam Bennett).

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I honestly hope so.

They were thin on the right side and thin in goal scoring so they overlook the warts of the guy that scores 20 every year and gamble that he can help the window before he falls off a cliff.

I like that better than "we just looked up his stats and the dude can score" and that was the summation of their analysis.

Man I wanted Steinberg to ask Snow that the other day. I know he couldn't but wouldn't it be great to sit down with that guy over a pint and go over decisions?

I have to believe they knew it was a bad decision but didn't anticipate it would be so bad.

Frankly, I can get behind that somewhat. Like the picks that turned into hamilton that then got added to Ferland and Fox that turned into Lindholm and Hanifin. On an asset for asset basis it's a downgrade for Calgary, but holy hell is it a homerun based on where the team was at.

But on the other hand, I hope it's not another example of Treliving falling in love with a player and just having to have him. The Flames were in on getting Neal in Tre's first or second year if I'm recalling correctly, and we saw much of the same with Mike Stone both this year and the year he first signed in Calgary. Arguably Mike Smith as well.

The internal politics were driving the bus on the Neal signing IMO, not the stats guy.

Oh, and absolutely it would be interesting to sit down with Snow over a case of beer.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

ComixZone - where on earth are you getting 50 CF% from? Lucic is at 42.47.

Textcritic - Individually, Lucic is the second worst player on the roster for getting swamped. Can we expect things to improve overall? Yes, because I expect the top line will improve. Can we expect the third line to improve? Probably, but any improvement will be limited because of the boat anchor we've attached to it.

Pulling that from Hockey-Reference.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I honestly hope so.



They were thin on the right side and thin in goal scoring so they overlook the warts of the guy that scores 20 every year and gamble that he can help the window before he falls off a cliff.



I like that better than "we just looked up his stats and the dude can score" and that was the summation of their analysis.



Man I wanted Steinberg to ask Snow that the other day. I know he couldn't but wouldn't it be great to sit down with that guy over a pint and go over decisions?

I hate that we have to go with that assumption that we know Steinberg can’t ask that type of question. It shouldn’t be received negatively, it’s a question about player analysis. Bring up the stats, see what Snow has to say and get a conversation going. I’d love to see hockey journalism/interviews get beyond the same boring #%^* we have now.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I hate that we have to go with that assumption that we know Steinberg can’t ask that type of question. It shouldn’t be received negatively, it’s a question about player analysis. Bring up the stats, see what Snow has to say and get a conversation going. I’d love to see hockey journalism/interviews get beyond the same boring #%^* we have now.

If steinberg asks questions the organzation doesn't like, he won't get to ask questions anymore.

Calgary is a one horse town if you're a sports reporter, which is why all the media to varying degrees carry water for the organization and whenever we hear of any organizational turmoil it almost always comes from the national guys.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I hate that we have to go with that assumption that we know Steinberg can’t ask that type of question. It shouldn’t be received negatively, it’s a question about player analysis. Bring up the stats, see what Snow has to say and get a conversation going. I’d love to see hockey journalism/interviews get beyond the same boring #%^* we have now.

Snow is an analytics guy, so it is exactly the type of question to ask.

But I do think you can over think the analytics side. If you get caught up in the minutia, you can overlook the simple things. The team needed goals and needed physicality. The fancy stats might tell you what has happened in the past, but they aren't always a predictor for what will happen. I think they are a good tool for splitting hairs if you need to choose between players, but not the first thing anyone should look at.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I hate that we have to go with that assumption that we know Steinberg can’t ask that type of question. It shouldn’t be received negatively, it’s a question about player analysis. Bring up the stats, see what Snow has to say and get a conversation going. I’d love to see hockey journalism/interviews get beyond the same boring #%^* we have now.

How much does this have to do with team analytics being proprietary?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ricardodw]

For you fancy stats guys Neal has a awful SAT% of 47.5

Sounds bad, but that would come in at 10 spot on the Flames.

Gio, Brodie, Monahan, Gaudreau all below his 47.5

Tkachuk and Lindholm are ahead of him, both at 47.78


If anyone really believes fancy stats as a leading indicator of a bad team brace yourselves for a losing streak. The Flames are in 26th spot in SAT % as a team. BSD is hiding their team play.

I don't believe in fancy stats based on shots on goal or attempted shots on goals.

Lucic at 41.67 only better than Monahan and Bennett.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

How much does this have to do with team analytics being proprietary?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He wouldn’t have to weigh in on the specifics of how they weighted him, but at least having the conversation around the numbers that we get to see as a general public would be an interesting change to the status quo.

I’m not saying Steinberg should go down the path of “what the hell were you thinking, didn’t you look at the numbers”, but rather deeper questions related to why they thought Neal would be a fit, where they saw him lining up when they saw him etc. I’d just love to see actual analytical discussion. More back and forth over actual hockey analysis. I know they can’t go down that path now with him being on a different team, as it’s kind of beyond that point - but when players get signed, or acquired, it’d be cool.

[pepper24]

What we're seeing from Neal is that last season was an off year. 2 long playoff runs with Nashville and Vegas didn't allow him to properly train over the summer. With Flames early exit he had a full summer to rest and train.

Flames took gamble that he was in decline rather than having an offseason. With getting that wrong the Flames miss out on a legit 20+ goal scorer along with now getting an awful, slow Lucic as a replacement. Huge miss and terrible trade.

[Robbob]

Fancy stats with a small sample don't really tell the whole story. Bottom line with Neal is his 50% shooting percentage is going to come down biggly. What that number tells me is he has been fortunate early on. Good for him, but I think there are the same red flags we saw last year. We will see after a month of games.

[TheScorpion]

I don't understand why there's been so much hand-wringing and sky-is-falling-ing about a swap of depth pieces when far more important players like Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Hanifin, Giordano, and Rittich have been giving fans so much more to cheer about

[ForeverFlameFan]

This is only a year boys. Neal can be dominating all he wants, but he is probably thriving off of the new opportunity in Edmonton.

Guess who did the same in 15/16? Lucic.

We're only 4 games into the season, and I believe Neal in the past has been a super streaky scorer.

[GullFoss]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I don't understand why there's been so much hand-wringing and sky-is-falling-ing about a swap of depth pieces when far more important players like Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Hanifin, Giordano, and Rittich have been giving fans so much more to cheer about

All the players you mentioned have had their moments, but outside of rittich, the team has not been good to start the season.

Their record is more indicative of their quality of opposition than the flames quality of play.