[News] With the 143rd OA pick the Flames select RW Ryan Francis

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by New Era

...Does Francis have the option of going back to the Q next year, or is this his overage year?

Francis just turned 19-years-old in December. We are all well aware of the odds on this kid making it, thanks, and do not constantly need to be reminded by you every time someone gets excited about this kid's production.

It looks like a solid pick in the fifth round.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think prospects like Francis should be celebrated. There is a lot to like in this pick.


I also think that Calgary is one of the better drafting teams in the league. I would say solidly in the top 10 somewhere.


With those things being said, I also think that there is room for improvement. This team absolutely needs to start improving their drafting when it comes to identifying large players with skill. Way too many bombs. Maybe it is the development that is an issue too. I don't know. Other teams draft guys with size and they graduate into the NHL. The last one to do it (not counting Tkachuk and Bennett, as they were high picks) was Ferland in the 5th round - and that was under Darryl Sutter!



Feaster, Burke and even Treliving made mention about how the Flames need to get bigger (yes, even Feaster said it).


If you can ice a team that is 6'2" or larger, who can all skate fast, are skilled, have high compete, and are all smart, you will win the cup. If you can keep that core, you probably have a dynasty on your hands. Everybody wants this team, and every prefers size if two prospects are even - heck, if two prospects are close, many teams prefer picking the larger prospect.


In hindsight, do you want to pick Marcus Granlund (6'0", 180lbs) or do you want to pick Adam Lowry (6'5", 210)? Well, of course you are an idiot if you don't Kucherov! However, strictly between the two, the Flames would have been better off picking Lowry over Granlund of course. Or would they? Maybe Lowry would have busted in Calgary's system for some reason.


I don't know why this team can't develop guys with size and skill. Maybe they weren't legitimate prospects to begin with. Ferland almost busted for those that remember - most people wrote him off, but he managed to get his life together and move forward. I really hoped that Poirier would have as well, as he was a missing piece this team needed for many seasons now, and was projecting to become just that.


However, people also forget how many small players bust for the Flames as well. Flames have been doing better with below average sized players, but it is probably a less competitive market, so their reaches for these picks are better value I guess.



However, if they don't start improving on identifying prospects with size, they will need to start overpaying in the UFA market or through trades in order to acquire them. Hockey is still a contact sport, and size still does matter. You can most definitely have a number of undersized players on the team for sure - hockey has evolved that way, and I think it has been for the better. Until it stops being a contact sport, however, teams will always need to supplement their roster with size and toughness, and if you can get size and toughness with speed and skill, it increases your chances of winning. Players like Ferland and Bennett are very valuable IMO.


Francis is a fantastic pick though, and I hope he continues exceeding expectations and pushes his way onto the Flames. There is always room for quality NHL talented players.

[TheScorpion]

I think you're going to like Martin Pospisil.... the injuries have been tough but there's so much skill, there.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I think you're going to like Martin Pospisil.... the injuries have been tough but there's so much skill, there.

I actually really do like Pospisil (if you were replying to me anyway). I like his all-round game, and he does have some nice mitts and brain to go along with his toughness and 'sandpaper' he brings. I think he has been developing well in the AHL, and I also think his European stint was very good for his confidence too.


He just has to actually make it in order to buck the trend with the Flames and their 'luck' with such players. I also actually liked the Kanzig and Smith picks too at the time, as I thought that they had good skill to go along with their freakish size. Hindsight proved me wrong, but that doesn't mean I have disliked who the Flames picked in the past. I thought Austin Carrol was going to make it too. I thought Fischer had a decent chance. I didn't think much of Bruce at the time. I felt Harrisson would have developed better than he did. Sieloff, Ramage and Arnold were all guys that I thought were going to make it too.


Hope he Pospisil makes it - and I hope that starting next season, he gets some reps at the NHL level (along with Phillips and a couple of others), to help his development and keep him motivated. I also hope that the Flames manage to draft some more players like Pospisil (and especially like Ferland). These gritty but skilled types are so incredibly valuable in the playoffs, and they are noticeable for every team.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Francis just turned 19-years-old in December. We are all well aware of the odds on this kid making it, thanks, and do not constantly need to be reminded by you every time someone gets excited about this kid's production.

It looks like a solid pick in the fifth round.

Well, obviously you do need to be reminded. You seem to not understand that our prospects are regarded as being bottom of the barrel, and for good reason. We need to remain guarded in our hopes and expectations of these kids. Keep the odds of them making it in mind, and then keep the needs of the team in mind as well. And most importantly, wait until they show their skills can translate. The Q is nothing like professional hockey so all the points in that universe don't amount to a hill of beans. A lot of these high scoring players from the Q rarely make an impact in the pro ranks.

[TheScorpion]

I think, generally speaking, you're sometimes a bit too guarded about them.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by New Era

Well, obviously you do need to be reminded. You seem to not understand that our prospects are regarded as being bottom of the barrel, and for good reason...

No. I do not need to be reminded. Rather, I choose to be happy about what guys like Francis, Wolf, Pelletier and Zary are showing. And moreover, I don't really care about the supposed "regard" for the Flames's prospects—either they pop, or they do not. Time will tell.

But you do you and continue to wallow in the soup of your constant misery, I guess. That sure does look fun.

[ForeverFlameFan]

I see New Era has now focused on putting down our prospects in full throttle now that his boy Sam has moved on

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by New Era

Well, obviously you do need to be reminded. You seem to not understand that our prospects are regarded as being bottom of the barrel, and for good reason. We need to remain guarded in our hopes and expectations of these kids. Keep the odds of them making it in mind, and then keep the needs of the team in mind as well. And most importantly, wait until they show their skills can translate. The Q is nothing like professional hockey so all the points in that universe don't amount to a hill of beans. A lot of these high scoring players from the Q rarely make an impact in the pro ranks.

I get your point. But as fans why exactly do we need to be "guarded in our hopes"?
Hope is what fans have.

[442scotty]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

No. I do not need to be reminded. Rather, I choose to be happy about what guys like Francis, Wolf, Pelletier and Zary are showing. And moreover, I don't really care about the supposed "regard" for the Flames's prospects—either they pop, or they do not. Time will tell.

But you do you and continue to wallow in the soup of your constant misery, I guess. That sure does look fun.

Lol

[Eric Vail]

Originally Posted by New Era

The pick is an interesting one, and the Flames should be swinging for the fences here and there, but I think everyone should pump the breaks. The QMJHL is a league for small guys and guys that don't play defense. The numbers from Francis are great, but recognize the competition. It is a league where production rarely translates to the next level, let alone the NHL. It really is a shinny league where small guys flourish. For comparison sake here's the guys in front of Francis in scoring.

Cédric Desruisseaux, 5'8, 166 (undrafted, 2000 bday)
Thomas Casey, 5'9, 188 (undrafted, 2000 bday)
Brett Budgell, 6'0, 187 (undrafted, 2001 bday)
Lukas Cormier, 5'10, 176 (VGK, 3rd rnd, #68)
Mathieu Desgagnés, 5'8, 176 (undrafted, 2000 bday)
Ryan Francis, 5'9, 176 (CGY, 5th rnd, #143)

One guy with close to NHL average size. The league is pretty wide open and is set up for small guys to rack up the points. It's not saying that Francis won't carve out a career in pro hockey. Could Francis be one of those small guys who makes it to the NHL? Sure. He reminds me a lot of Mangiapane with better stability. He could go that route. But he could he be nothing more than a replacement for Matthew Phillips in the AHL as Phillips ages out. More likely? We won't know until he plays against men and we see if that skill translates to the next level.

Does Francis have the option of going back to the Q next year, or is this his overage year?

I looked up the leading scorers in the Q from 5 years and 7 years ago and most of the players are in the AHL, ECHL or in Europe. A few have made it, but it underscores that Francis is still a longshot prospect, but it is nice to see he is improving.

[Bingo]

Any time prospects improve after getting drafted less than a year earlier you get excited. Full stop.

You don't pencil them in or plan a parade or gloat to opposing fan bases but you nod you're head and hope the improvement keeps a coming.

Top 5-10 picks don't have to improve to get into the NHL, but pretty much every player taken 11+ has to or they won't make it.

Have as many bodies going positive since their draft date as you can and hope a few of them explode.

Finding negativity in improving prospects is a pretty telling state if you ask me.

[Flames1217]

I've watched a crazy amount of games in the Q in my life time and it is safe to say that the league always has certain "cheat codes". Certain players can get by very easily if they are really good at one thing. The league has always been a high octane all out offensive league.

When looking at prospects from the Q you really have to look at thier game as a whole. You can't stat watch. Whether it be defensive breakdowns, lazy back checks or players completely getting lost in transition there always seems to be gimme plays every game.

I've watched Francis play, and have on multiple occasions prior to the pandemic. I wouldn't say he is a slam dunk make it player but for the Q's standards he is pretty close. He hussles, he hounds the puck and plays the game in the center of the ice. He is not a perimeter player at all. He has one hell of a backhand pass and seems to always lose the players that are covering him. He is sturdy for his size and plays with a low stance, this is good for staying on the puck but tends to slightly slow down his wrister. With all that being said he needs to work on his speed and strength. He will not be able to succeed at the next level the way he plays if he doesn't improve his skating and strength. He is not slow, however, he is not blowing by people in the Q.

Francis is alot like Mangiapane and presents most of the same obstacles that he did. This isn't a kid just with amazing hands or an amazing shot. This is a hard working forward with really good vision.

If he does make it he will be a solid middle six forward very much akin to Mangiapane. I don't think he makes it as a Center and will likely be switched to LW.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I think, generally speaking, you're sometimes a bit too guarded about them.

That's true. Better to be guarded than build them up into something they will never be. Been through it myself, so I understand the pressure to perform as a developing talent and just how hard it is going to the next level. You may be the best player on your team at one level, but when you promote, you're on a team full of players that were the best player on their team at the last level, and you're playing in a league full of players who were in the same situation. It is brutal and not many players make it to the pinnacle. As a result I try not to build these kids into something they aren't, because for the vast majority of them, this is the best they are going to be. If you see a player from the 5th round make it, its a bit of a Christmas miracle. The last 5th rounder the Flames hit on was Ferland. Before that? Travis Moen, and he wasn't with the Flames. Outside of Ferland, the Flames have not drafted and developed a player in the 5th round that played more than half a season for the club. That type of stuff keeps things in perspective.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I get your point. But as fans why exactly do we need to be "guarded in our hopes"?

Because of "He who shall not be named," because he completely derails every thread he is mentioned in. You keep pumping these kid's tires and not temper expectations the fans are going to develop unreasonable expectations and things become toxic, like it was back in the Young Guns era. All they saw was failure, kind of like they are doing right now, because players are not achieving the lofty levels set for them. We should be able to objectively discuss these guys, but always keep their limitations in mind. The minute we don't, we do these kids and ourselves a disservice.

[Moneyhands23]

Ryan Francis will win the heart trophy

[CMPunk]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Ryan Francis will win the heart trophy

Hart

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by New Era

You keep pumping these kid's tires and not temper expectations the fans are going to develop unreasonable expectations and things become toxic, like it was back in the Young Guns era.

Better to cut out the hope part and go straight to toxic, amirite?

Seriously, who died and left you Chief of the Fun Police? You seem absolutely hell-bent on preventing anyone from actually enjoying being a hockey fan.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Ryan Francis will win the heart trophy

I would bet my house on it.

... the Hart Trophy, on the other hand?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by New Era

That's true. Better to be guarded than build them up into something they will never be. Been through it myself, so I understand the pressure to perform as a developing talent and just how hard it is going to the next level. You may be the best player on your team at one level, but when you promote, you're on a team full of players that were the best player on their team at the last level, and you're playing in a league full of players who were in the same situation. It is brutal and not many players make it to the pinnacle. As a result I try not to build these kids into something they aren't, because for the vast majority of them, this is the best they are going to be. If you see a player from the 5th round make it, its a bit of a Christmas miracle. The last 5th rounder the Flames hit on was Ferland. Before that? Travis Moen, and he wasn't with the Flames. Outside of Ferland, the Flames have not drafted and developed a player in the 5th round that played more than half a season for the club. That type of stuff keeps things in perspective.

There is a lot of space between those two things. And yes, the vast majority never make it.

No one is saying build them up, but it is perfectly fine to see progress and be encouraged by it.

Otherwise, why bother entering the conversation at all? Just to get off on being 'the voice of reason'?