Who do the Flames protect in the Expansion Draft?

[Bourque's Twin]

The Expansion Draft takes place in June 2021, which is roughly a year away. A lot can happen between now and then, but what do you predict the Flames do strategically for this expansion draft?

Here are the rules:

1. Players with no-movement clauses who decline to waive those clauses must be protected.

Lucic is the only player with a NMC.

2. First- and second-year NHL players and all unsigned draft choices are exempt from selection and do not count toward protection limits.

Valimaki is the key player who falls under this as long as he doesn't play during these playoffs.

3. One available player must be a defenseman who is under contract in 2021-22 and played at least 40 NHL games in 2020-21 or 70 games in ’19-20 and ’20-21 combined.

Assuming the Flames protect Giordano, Andersson, and Hanifin, there are no other players who would qualify for this who are currently under contract in 2021. Brodie, Hamonic, Forbort, Kylington or Gustafsson would qualify if re-signed. Unless Stone is re-signed and plays over 37 games next year, he won't qualify.

4. Two available players must be forwards who are under contract in 2021-22 and played at least 40 NHL games in 2020-21 or 70 games in ’19-20 and ’20-21 combined.

Lucic, Monahan, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk, and Backlund are all signed through that season but are all players we'd like to protect (except Lucic who we have to protect.). The Flames will most likely re-sign Mangiapane, Dube, Bennett, Ryan and a few role players who will all qualify for this.

5. One available player must be a goalie who is under contract in 2021-22 or who is a restricted free agent having received a qualifying offer from his team.

The Flames have no goalie who would qualify for this as of right now. This all depends on who they re-sign.

6. Players who missed the final 60 games of the ’20-21 season or who have otherwise been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury cannot be exposed in the draft without league approval.

Not applicable right now.


For forwards, we know that Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Monahan, and Lindholm are 100% being kept (unless a trade takes place). It looks like Lucic will have to be protected (unless he agrees to waive his NMC or is traded).

This leaves the Flames having to choose 2 of the following to keep:
Backlund, Ryan, Dube, Bennett, Mangiapane.

If they can get Lucic to waive, or trade him for someone not worth keeping, then the Flames can keep 3 of the above.

I'm afraid that 2 of Backlund, Dube, Mangiapane and Bennett will be exposed and we will undoubtedly lose one of them.

[Enoch Root]

They are going to have to expose some good players - that is the downside of having more than 2 good players.

The Kraken can only take one of them though.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Lucic will not have to be protected. He'll agree to be exposed.

[Roof-Daddy]

Ugh. Lucic will not have to be protected.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Lucic will not have to be protected. He'll agree to be exposed.

Can you guess who absolutely wouldn’t do that? If they had that choice.

[Robbob]

This is more an off season exercise, a lot can happen between now and next season. However, I do think that depending on where players are in a year, there is a potential to try and get Seattle to grab an aging contract. I need to see where Backlund and Gio are after next season. I don't think they are a sure thing.

[David Struch]

It's looking more and more like the Flames will be losing a good forward...

Taylor Hall
Matthew Tkachuk
Johnny Gaudreau
Sean Monahan
Mikael Backlund
Elias Lindholm
Dillon Dubé
Andrew Mangiapane
Sam Bennett

Mark Giordano
Noah Hanifin
Rasmus Andersson

[Reggie Dunlop]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


The roster will change before then anyways.

Whomever goes, the team should just bite the bullet and not try to get cute and send draft picks to Seattle in exchange for overlooking certain players.

[DSIM420]

We could offer up our 1st round pick for them to take someone of less value to us.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by David Struch

It's looking more and more like the Flames will be losing a good forward...

Taylor Hall
Matthew Tkachuk
Johnny Gaudreau
Sean Monahan
Mikael Backlund
Elias Lindholm
Dillon Dubé
Andrew Mangiapane
Sam Bennett

Mark Giordano
Noah Hanifin
Rasmus Andersson

Assuming we have Taylor Hall locked up is probably a dangerous gamble - and further to that, I just don’t see how we have Johnny and Taylor (although that would be awesome). To have both, it would require some pretty creative cap-work including signing Mangiapane to a 1 or 2 year deal for relatively low money, or perhaps moving Derek Ryan our for a pick (which, if Bennett is indeed taking a step forward at centre, could be a move worth doing if it enabled us to sign Hall and keep Johnny for one year).

[FlamesAddiction]

If I had to guess now, I would say the Flames protect Dube, Mangiapane, and Backlund. Lucic is sure to waive IMO.

The Flames will probably dangle a defenseman as draft bait to try and keep Bennett. Don't forget, there is still a free agency season coming up, so we don't know who will have to be considered at this point. The Flames may do this just to have someone to take the light off of other players that are exposed. I think they did that when the Panthers came into the league. They traded for Skrudland with the pretense that they would expose him.

[TheSquatch]

Well, I'll say it, I'd leave Giordano and Gaudreau unprotected.

Gio is trending down, the last years of his contract are going to be poorer value as they go. He had an okay year, but he's just not the dominant defender he once was.

Gaudreau I just think we can replace or fill in for. It's been a long time since we saw Johnny Hockey. We have Johnny Nothanks right now, and at 6.9 or whatever he's at... yeah we need more production.

[davidus_49]

Originally Posted by TheSquatch

Well, I'll say it, I'd leave Giordano and Gaudreau unprotected.

Gio is trending down, the last years of his contract are going to be poorer value as they go. He had an okay year, but he's just not the dominant defender he once was.

Gaudreau I just think we can replace or fill in for. It's been a long time since we saw Johnny Hockey. We have Johnny Nothanks right now, and at 6.9 or whatever he's at... yeah we need more production.

You can't leave Johnny unprotected, if you don't see a future for him with the team you trade him but you can't give him to Seattle for free.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Too soon to tell. There will be another season and a number of moves that will change the make up of the roster the team will have to pick from. I suspect there will be a couple of surprises along the way and a big name or two will be exposed.

[Wood]

I think Kylington will be a Kraken

I wouldn't be surprised if the Flames needed to make a deal with Seattle to protect a player, but I don't see Kylington being in the Flames long term plans

[TheIronMaiden]

Kylington will likely be the choice, a young mobile D man with a handful of experience. It's gonna sting.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Kylington will likely be the choice, a young mobile D man with a handful of experience. It's gonna sting.

I wonder if Anaheim would want a do-over with Shea Theodore

[Enoch Root]

Too much will change in order to make a specific guess, but I expect it will be someone more valuable than Kylington

[ComixZone]

My bold prediction: We lose Josh Anderson to Seattle. We acquire him in the off-season for our 2020 2nd and conditional 2021 3rd round pick (turns into the 2021 2nd round pick if he scores 20G - which he does). We only sign him to a 1 year deal to burn up his final cheap RFA season, and then Seattle signs him to a bigger contract and he leaves as a UFA (ala Deryk Engelland).

Effectively means we spent two 2nd round picks to get a season of Josh Anderson and protect our other players.

[Five-hole]

Not really related to this thread, but I keep seeing Josh Anderson's name come up as a player we might acquire. Why would CBJ want to move him?