Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Bownesian]

The polls over the last year are at the bottom of the page linked below and show the NDP+Lib support numbers to be pretty steady with some outliers.
http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/alberta.html

His aggregate numbers are:

[Parallex]

NM

Bownesian beat me to it.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Which polls?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GGG

In terms of the alberta economy despite an increase in the minimum wage it has seen a significant decline in the cost of doing business in the oil patch. If you look at the Cenovous estimate for there 50k expansion they have cut 500 million. The bulk of that would be a labour cost of D+C and fab.

So Alberta will likely buck the trend in that the minimum wage hikes and tax increases will be offset in the decreased price of the labour market so much so that it will be difficult to see the affect of tax increase and minimum wage hike in the data.

Sure, of course. But none of that is good news for the economy. The people that are making more than minimum wage are making less (if they're working). The cost of casual labour has gone up. Taxes on every front are up. Carbon tax is coming. And the unemployment rate is still rising.

I don't think Notley and co are in a position to puff their chests out just yet.

[Tron_fdc]

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...o-Quickly.html

Interesting article

[Bunk]

It would be interesting to see if any big companies start hiring back soon in order to a) get the best available talent and b) be able to offer salary levels that will keep their costs reasonable. I'm guessing a lot of people will accept positions at a fair amount less than the same job paid two years ago.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Bunk

It would be interesting to see if any big companies start hiring back soon in order to a) get the best available talent and b) be able to offer salary levels that will keep their costs reasonable. I'm guessing a lot of people will accept positions at a fair amount less than the same job paid two years ago.

That would certainly be the smart and pro-active thing to do but I think that there is still too much uncertainty in the future. Most companies will be hiring on demand as required by immediate workloads.

The interesting part for me will be seeing whether or not former O&G professionals actually return if the job market rebounds. There are many geos, engineers, business folks who have found employment in different fields and if they don't return it could actually put a strain on the talent pool.

[Violator]

N/a

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

That would certainly be the smart and pro-active thing to do but I think that there is still too much uncertainty in the future. Most companies will be hiring on demand as required by immediate workloads.

The interesting part for me will be seeing whether or not former O&G professionals actually return if the job market rebounds. There are many geos, engineers, business folks who have found employment in different fields and if they don't return it could actually put a strain on the talent pool.

Not professional talent, but field talent - our company is finding the answer to be fairly high on the 'no' side, they are not coming back. So now we need to find and hire green people and train them. And it is already putting a strain on our ability to up our job capability, and of course grow our cash flow accordingly which the banks want to see before they will consider increasing borrowing limits which we need in order to expand to keep up to growing demand for our services. It is a bit of a vicious circle.

[Yoho]

Husky Energy to bump up capital spending, daily production in 2017
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/husk...ding-1.3893878

[Ducay]

The only poll that matters is the standard vs. double meat orders at Subways province-wide. Should give you a good indication of what locations, industries, and areas are doing best.

Bureaucratic Edmonton core going all out double meat? Then NDP is likely to do well. Strong double meats in Calgary would indicate oil prices on the rise. Northern rural Alberta? Sounds like service companies and capital drilling programs are rising. Same thing with grain prices and weather being reflected in rural plains of Alberta.

There is little data that cannot be determined by this simple metric.

[calgarygeologist]

Damn 10% jump in the price of natural gas today. What is driving the price hike? Just a seasonal bump?

[Ducay]

Cold as balls weather across the east coast. Last couple winters we havn't seen the cold we need to reduces inventories enough to get prices to notch up.

Lets hope for more!

[REDVAN]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Cold as balls weather across the east coast. Last couple winters we havn't seen the cold we need to reduces inventories enough to get prices to notch up.

Lets hope for more!

"last couple" = 8+ years

[red sky]

Except the polar vortex year.

[Faust]

‘It’s blindsided everybody’: New U.S. border tax could shut out Canadian oil

http://business.financialpost.com/ne...t-canadian-oil

[PsYcNeT]

Wow the administration that has been pounding the protectionism angle for 12 months introduces a bill to increase protectionism. What a shocker.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Wow the administration that has been pounding the protectionism angle for 12 months introduces a bill to increase protectionism. What a shocker.

It's effectively a 25% tax on all imported goods from anywhere. That's a job killing tax if there ever was one. No way it goes through as it starts a trade war with the entire world immediately.

At the same time it crushes US manufacturing as it appears that complete imported wouldn't be taxed the same as goods manufactured in the US with the raw products shipped in. It's a worst of both worlds policy.

Well done republicans.

[Fuzz]

Is any of this even allowed under NAFTA?

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Is any of this even allowed under NAFTA?

NAFTA will be gone by February.