Sam Bennett Value: Have the Flames held on TOO long?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee
The decision to sell on Bennett was a year ago or more, when the Flames didn't want to take the risk of holding onto an asset that was starting to show serious signs of not developing into what the Flames were hoping for. In fact I recall a thread a year ago or more where this very question was being debated, and of course it seemed like to me at the time that the majority of posters wanted to hang on. Well, nothing's guaranteed.
The Flames have definitely held on too long with Bennett and should have traded him, but not now. Before. Now is too late. Now the Flames aren't getting what they invested into him (4th overall selection).
No, now you hang on, and hope the asset can eventually get to a serviceable player (which by the way, has a very low probability of happening) but today? Today he's a borderline fringe NHLer. I also don't think he puts forth the effort required game in and game out that he could.
I may not have been more disappointed in any Flames prospect in the organization's history. He was the highest selected, had the highest potential (seemingly), and he's been (being?) ruined by Gulutzan.
Troy Brouwer this year.
Sam Bennett this year (Draft+4 year)
Mikael Backlund in his Draft+4 year.
“very low probability” is such an odd comment, unless you’re weighing the general hockey playing population vs. likelihood of becoming a high performing NHL’er?
Making judgements on players, so scathing, when they’re contributing NHL players at an incredibly young age makes little sense. I wonder just how many of you who are proclaiming Bennett a bust/a bad pick said the same about Backlund? Jankowski? Or how much are you failing to disconnect Bennett’s draft spot from his performance? Which is silly. Look at the draft year, the top end of the draft wasn’t strong, especially for forwards. Remove your own expectations that were driven by the draft spot, look at him as a 21 year old and give the kid some time. Jankowski is 2 years older than Bennett. Look at him and ask yourself “who else?” could we put into the lineup with the same potential, who has accomplished what he has accomplished at his age.
Everyone wanted a rebuild when we started to do it. Many claimed to be okay with taking on the pain that a fan does of a rebuilding team. Look how it has gone. We’ve had to invest almost no time in player development. Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Hamilton...we’ve been incredibly lucky to have our picks and prospects go the way they have. So to look at Bennett, the only one who appears to be a bit of a later bloomer, and proclaim failure? Eeesh...patience really is a virtue, and with how spoiled we’ve been I guess that means we never had to develop it.
Last edited by ComixZone; 02-07-2018 at 08:31 PM.
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Bennett's biggest problem is that he puts too much pressure on himself. And his confidence is completely shot now.
What he needs is for the game to slow down for him. And that will happen one day. But not while he is being handled the way he currently is. If I were the coach, I would try to get him to stop thinking so much - just go out and play.
And I do think there is something to the argument that Gulutzan hasn't handled him well. No coach handles every player correctly. And no coach screws them all up. Every coach is going to get most players more or less right, but mess up with a few. It is the nature of the human condition.
And I think Gulutzan has gotten Bennett's head screwed up. It started when he neutered him last year for taking too many penalties. Ever since then, Bennett has spiraled downwards and his confidence has eroded to the point that we see today.
I think the best way to salvage Bennett is to give him better offensive opportunities and tell him to stop worrying about systems or positioning or anything else. Just go play.
As for the people that fret over his draft position - get over it. It's irrelevant now, as it's water under the bridge. The only thing that matters is going forward. And as far as I am concerned there are three reasons why it makes sense to be patient:
1) potential - due to his his age, determination, and occasional flashes of brilliance
2) salary - it's not like it hurts us cap-wise to keep him
3) return - we probably wouldn't get much for him
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Troy Brouwer this year.
Sam Bennett this year (Draft+4 year)
Mikael Backlund in his Draft+4 year.
“very low probability” is such an odd comment, unless you’re weighing the general hockey playing population vs. likelihood of becoming a high performing NHL’er?
Making judgements on players, so scathing, when they’re contributing NHL players at an incredibly young age makes little sense. I wonder just how many of you who are proclaiming Bennett a bust/a bad pick said the same about Backlund? Jankowski? Or how much are you failing to disconnect Bennett’s draft spot from his performance? Which is silly. Look at the draft year, the top end of the draft wasn’t strong, especially for forwards. Remove your own expectations that were driven by the draft spot, look at him as a 21 year old and give the kid some time. Jankowski is 2 years older than Bennett. Look at him and ask yourself “who else?” could we put into the lineup with the same potential, who has accomplished what he has accomplished at his age.
Everyone wanted a rebuild when we started to do it. Many claimed to be okay with taking on the pain that a fan does of a rebuilding team. Look how it has gone. We’ve had to invest almost no time in player development. Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Hamilton...we’ve been incredibly lucky to have our picks and prospects go the way they have. So to look at Bennett, the only one who appears to be a bit of a later bloomer, and proclaim failure? Eeesh...patience really is a virtue, and with how spoiled we’ve been I guess that means we never had to develop it.
1) Sorry but why are we removing the expectations based on draft position? Isn't that implicit with the topic of this thread? The fact that this was the highest ever drafted Flame should come with a certain level of expectations, and being outplayed by Brouwer on a terrible line 3 or 4 is not quite what most fans were hoping for. I guarantee you that back at the day of that draft, if most fans knew what was to become of Bennett (even at age 21), every single fan would pass on him. So what does that mean then? It means he hasn't been what was expected of him, and it means that the asset the Flames gave up for him was much more than the asset he is today, even at 21, and yes even if he turns into a Backlund. People taken at 4th overall are expected (and should be expected) to be top line players. This is a guy who somebody with top tier NHL scouting and managerial experience legitimately thought was the 4th best 18 year old on Earth, and the best possible fit for the Flames near-term. Not at age 25. Because, and this relates to my second point...
2) The NHL has transitioned into a young mans game, which yes includes 21 year olds. That's why you see more great young talent breaking into the NHL at ages 18, 19 , 20 and 21. Now that doesn't mean that he still can't develop into something special, and I understand that, but based on the eyeball test of his skill level which seems to be lacking, his work ethic which is inconsistent, and his ability to elevate line mates, which he doesn't, that's why I am saying there's a low probability that he is going to develop into something that should equal the asset value we could have returned if we sold "high" last year or earlier. If you look at the top 5 draftees over the last several years, more often than not they are impact players nearly immediately, not at age 24 or 25.
So, you can't just ignore where he was drafted. He was drafted at that spot for a reason. He showed tremendous potential in a fairly decent draft. It's not wrong for people to have expectations based on where he was drafted at all.
As for the guy laughing about me blaming Gulutzan, I understand what you're getting at, a lot of people have a propensity to blame everything on Glen Gulutzan. But are you honestly going to tell me you don't wonder what Bennett would be like if he was on different lines surrounded by different players? I agree players should not be entitled to top line minutes and be accountable for their play, and that's on Bennett to prove that he belongs on the top line. But, on the other hand, he was drafted as a top end skilled forward projected to be a top line impact player. A Doug Gilmour comparable. Are you honestly going to sit there and tell me that Gulutzan squirreling him away on line 4 is the best for his development? To have linemates that when he dishes the puck to them, they can't turn a play or convert? As Enoch states, his confidence is a huge, huge piece of the puzzle here and by shoving him down on line 4 with guys that can't convert, you're killing the guys' confidence.
So I would place the blame at why he hasn't developed the way we all had hoped at ~70% Bennett, ~30% Gulutzan.
Bennett's biggest problem is that he puts too much pressure on himself. And his confidence is completely shot now.
What he needs is for the game to slow down for him. And that will happen one day. But not while he is being handled the way he currently is. If I were the coach, I would try to get him to stop thinking so much - just go out and play.
And I do think there is something to the argument that Gulutzan hasn't handled him well. No coach handles every player correctly. And no coach screws them all up. Every coach is going to get most players more or less right, but mess up with a few. It is the nature of the human condition.
And I think Gulutzan has gotten Bennett's head screwed up. It started when he neutered him last year for taking too many penalties. Ever since then, Bennett has spiraled downwards and his confidence has eroded to the point that we see today.
I think the best way to salvage Bennett is to give him better offensive opportunities and tell him to stop worrying about systems or positioning or anything else. Just go play.
As for the people that fret over his draft position - get over it. It's irrelevant now, as it's water under the bridge. The only thing that matters is going forward. And as far as I am concerned there are three reasons why it makes sense to be patient:
1) potential - due to his his age, determination, and occasional flashes of brilliance
2) salary - it's not like it hurts us cap-wise to keep him
3) return - we probably wouldn't get much for him
agree with everything but the draft position comment.
In the context of evaluating the player based on the asset that was originally given up for him, he has not panned out to what he was supposed to be.
I'm not even sure how that's debatable, and I'm not even sure why people can't factor that into the debate as to whether or not the Flames should have moved on the asset sooner.
The further in time you move away from a 4th overall pick that isn't performing, the larger decrease in value. You can't ignore the starting line.
A year ago, was Bennett worth more than he is today? Yes. Unequivocally. That's what this thread is about, isn't it?
Last edited by Mr.Coffee; 02-07-2018 at 09:49 PM.
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Biggest issue with Bennett is consistency and frankly there’s little he’s done to make us believe he’ll ever find it. Almost all his scoring this year is in one month. Outside of that month, he plays lazy, soft and undisciplined. Hopefully something turns on but he’s consistently regressing, which is why all the ‘he’s only 21’ crap is so lazy. He’s 21 and worse than he was at 19. And not just a season blip, 2 seasons now he’s gotten worse each year. There’s a lot of reason for pessimism when it comes to Bennett’s chances of ever turning around
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You can’t look at his draft spot without the draft year in mind, that’s completely disconnecting the abstract from reality. We have the 4th round pick in THAT year. Not any year. That year. Sam Bennett was the runaway “brain dead” pick at that spot, just like Monahan was before him (at 6) and Tkachuk was 2 years later (at 6). So because we got dealt a not so great draft year with our “highest pick ever”, we should just abandon the player and not try to make the best of a somewhat unlucky situation simply due to expectations that are disconnected from reality?
So when saying “the asset we gave up for him” is in fact the 4th round pick in that draft year, well...it is what it is. Bennett was the right pick at that moment in time, and when given proper circumstances he has performed well. I do think there is a player/coach mismatch, which is why I’m all for holding onto Sam. Gully, I’d say, is unlikely to be here beyond next season given his track record during the first 50% of his contract, so yeah - you hold onto Sam and get him someone good to play with, and we may very well be rewarded handsomely.
Yours, and my, expectations mean absolutely nothing. They’re not real. Sam Bennett is real, and he’s on the team. With drafting you take the good and you take the lesser good, and the bad alike. Bennett needing more time does not make Bennett bad, it just makes him un-extraordinary, which in no way excludes him from being able to develop into a very good hockey player. When you hit a home run in the 4th round, it makes hitting a single or a double in the 1st round a lot more palatable as well.
Look at how an older Ferland teased us for a few years before finally, largely due to circumstance, started nailing it this season. Patience is not a bad thing, and just because he was selected 4th overall doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be given patience.
No, somebody THOUGHT he was the right pick at that time, but they were wrong. He obviously wasn't because there were several better players taken after him that year. Again that's not debatable at this point based on production. Pastrnak, Larkin, Dal Colle, Nylander... hell there are a lot of them.
Anyway I'm not sure what your point is regardless, he was worth a 4th (or approximately thereto), today he isn't, his value is worse today than even just 1 year ago. Anyway we agree that today you need to hold onto him, but we disagree that they should have sold high previously when his value was higher. That's because ultimately you think his value will increase materially, and I don't think it will to the point that we could have a year ago or so. I think there's a low probability he gets back to that value.
Your point is muddied in hindsight. So when you nail down that time traveling, come back to your point and I’ll hop in with you and we’ll go back and (kill Hitler first), then re-do the 2014 entry draft.
Bennett was the top ranked forward in the draft, and you know what I firmly believe (since we’re dealing with things like hindsight)? If he had been playing on McDavid’s wing, he’d have put up some pretty excellent numbers just like Draisaitl. Heck, if he had been kept with good players like Backlund, I bet this thread wouldn’t even exist.
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Your point is muddied in hindsight. So when you nail down that time traveling, come back to your point and I’ll hop in with you and we’ll go back and (kill Hitler first), then re-do the 2014 entry draft.
Bennett was the top ranked forward in the draft, and you know what I firmly believe (since we’re dealing with things like hindsight)? If he had been playing on McDavid’s wing, he’d have put up some pretty excellent numbers just like Draisaitl. Heck, if he had been kept with good players like Backlund, I bet this thread wouldn’t even exist.
Lol saying that Bennett is a product of his situation and entirely removing the blame from the player himself is truly pathetic analysis, about the worst kind that can be made. Draisaitl has way outperformed Bennett, whether it be with McDavid or driving his own line. I guess Tkachuk is only good because he plays with Backlund? Like how out of touch is that crap.
How anyone that can say that Bennett, to this point in his career, is not a huge disappointment is perplexing. Hopefully something changes but there’s next to nothing redeemable about how he performs night in and night out. And everyone saying that it’s impressive that he’s in the NHL as a 21 year old (it’s not by the way) need to remember that if it weren’t for waiver eligibility there’s a good chance he would be going back and forth from the NHL and AHL with his current play, and that’d likely be a good thing for him.
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Sorry but is the thread not inherently based in hindsight?
Have the Flames held onto him too long?
Implicit with the question is hindsight, and his draft position, and his previous value, no? Otherwise I'm not sure how you even answer the question?
Carry it down the path you see fit, but I feel I've put forward a well reasoned argument as to why the answer is "No.", without the crutch of hindsight.
The question you're focused in on is "have the Flames held on TOO long", and if your argument is we should have picked someone else...well, that doesn't answer the question at all either.
Your answer was yes we held on too long, and that we should have abandoned him last year - a year after he was buried with awful linemates while playing center. I think that's one heck of a way to stall/mess with a player's development, so abandoning him after that seems impulsive. What he gave us in December, again, at a young age, should show us what he's capable of and the team should help in getting that more often. I think the best way to do that is to get him a better linemate than the line destroying Troy Brouwer, who I should say is not outplaying Sam Bennett, which is a pretty damn subjective claim (on both sides).
Brouwer is awful, and hurts the team everywhere he goes. It's undebatable. I think with what we've seen of Bennett away from Brouwer is enough reason to be patient, especially when you look at Bennett's time as a winger.
This is loser logic, because the only reason the Oilers have drafted who they did is because they are decade long losers.
The draft is too random to be upset about hypotheticals like this.
It sucks Bennett isn't an impact player right now, but Tkachuk is. It's luck of the draw.
Yeah, it's the luck of the draw, but I'd rather have Draisaitl over Bennett any day. That wasn't a pipe dream either. The Flames were one position off if they had tanked properly that year. Yes, having either McDavid/Eichel is a pipe dream and a long shot but if the Flames were thinking of a better rebuild, it was still a possibility. I still contend that a lot of teams held back to get a better position on that skewed lottery and supposedly a deep draft year. It's kind of odd to see both the Kings and the Sharks not make the playoffs that year, don't you think?
The only loser logic that I cannot figure out is why people are still so high on Bennett. Makes no frickin sense. If you watched last nights game against the Hawks, he had back-to-back penalties in the offensive zone for no good reason. You can complain about his line mates being bad, but Backlund seemed to play ok with Brouwer. Cripes, Bennett has played on the top line and there may be a few occasions that he's shown his potential, but Ferland is that much better than him.
The thing is, if Bennett has so much potential and he hasn't used it much, trade the guy - maybe it'll be a good thing for him and for the team. Why keep the guy if he's not showing anything and just hanging around and just going through the motions? On most night, he's basically invisible. Janko plays as a third line center and he's showing he belongs with the club, Bennett doesn't and I don't care how highly rated his skills are - show it on a regular basis or move on. It's so ######ed to try and defend the guy when he's got nothing to show.
Yeah, it's the luck of the draw, but I'd rather have Draisaitl over Bennett any day. That wasn't a pipe dream either. The Flames were one position off if they had tanked properly that year.
Sorry, stopped reading right there.
Your take is entirely Oiler-esque.
There is so much randomness in the draft order and luck of the draw with each player it's ridiculous to suggest it could have been planned better.
Planned and cheering for losing is deplorable. From the top to the fanbase.
What you're talking about is a very slippery slope towards the loser mentality that permeates up north.
