Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Azure]

In the most basic sense, the layoffs mean less production, which means less supply which means an inevitable increase in demand, which means with time the price will go up.

This is why there is always a cycle. People just lose sight of the long-term.

[Mr.Coffee]

I gotta think nat gas is in trouble on the price side. I mean honestly... it's like $1.60ish NYMEX and $1.40 or so AECO?

AB storage at 80+%........ in March........ still injecting. Has anyone on here ever seen storage literally filled? What happens? Wells just get backed out / shut in?

Wouldn't it make more sense to wait until summer when supply becomes a huge issue on nat gas and prices collapse, then stocks follow and then buy?

I want to invest but I fear I missed the turn a bit on oil, and on gas I see a storm brewing, but at the end of the day who knows.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Azure

In the most basic sense, the layoffs mean less production, which means less supply which means an inevitable increase in demand, which means with time the price will go up.

This is why there is always a cycle. People just lose sight of the long-term.

I don't think it's so much people losing sight of the long term as much as tens of thousands of Calgarians having their lives torn apart in the short term.

It's easy to keep sight of the long term if you're working, it becomes much more difficult when no money's coming in, and so everyone starts looking for signs of recovery early on and just hoping they might be legit.

[blueski]

Originally Posted by Azure

In the most basic sense, the layoffs mean less production, which means less supply which means an inevitable increase in demand, which means with time the price will go up.

This is why there is always a cycle. People just lose sight of the long-term.

That's only half the equation, the other half is demand. Not saying it won't go up again, just saying it won't as a matter of fact go up.

[GGG]

I think the rest of the week is interesting here. If oil can holds its gains through the week past the end of the meetings then I can see it being a slow recovery to hold around 40. But I just see it giving back most of the gains made yesterday over the course of the week.

I think there is one more drop before we see sustained recovery in the second half of this year.

[IliketoPuck]

http://business.financialpost.com/ne..._lsa=8056-c3b9

So if Liberal GHG regulations cause a $36Bn project to disappear, at what point do Canadians stop acting like the world's environmental boy-scouts and start looking out for themselves?

[Fuzz]

Projects should be subject to the regulations that exist at application day, not a moving target. This is getting ridiculous.

[burn_this_city]

These muppets will continue to move the goal posts on regulations until we're all relying on that guaranteed income. LNG from BC is all but dead, and they have tin cup Christy and Justin to blame.

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Projects should be subject to the regulations that exist at application day, not a moving target. This is getting ridiculous.

Welcome to the Federal Liberal and Provincial NDP environmental policy THUNDERDOME!!!!! No reactionary environmental policies denied! Come one, come all!!! Deficit Spending! Solar Panels! WIIIIIIIIIND TURBINES! CAAAARBOOOOOOON TAXES! VAAAAAGUE GHG REDUCTION TARGETS!

FFS what a clown show our governments are right now.

[burn_this_city]

It'll be good to have a social license for projects that have no economics. The current governments are nothing more than useful idiots for our competitors. It's amazing how well misinformation and scare tactics have torpedoed our competitiveness.

[puckedoff]

Bad news, but something that many on this board and other industry participants have been calling for a long time now. (Not specifically that Petronas would pull out, but that Canada would miss the boat on LNG because of all the delays / special interest groups). Its too bad too with the price of gas where it is.

Hopefully the projects slated for Oregon can still go ahead, sure it is tax revenue paid to a different government but it could help alleviate the supply/demand imbalance for CWSB gas.

[IliketoPuck]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

It'll be good to have a social license for projects that have no economics. The current governments are nothing more than useful idiots for our competitors. It's amazing how well misinformation and scare tactics have torpedoed our competitiveness.

It is truly stunning.

Canadians are so busy worrying what other people think of them then looking out for their own best interests.

A famous quote from Buffett about poker (or business) sums it up nicely:

"If you've been in the game for awhile and don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy."

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

It'll be good to have a social license for projects that have no economics. The current governments are nothing more than useful idiots for our competitors. It's amazing how well misinformation and scare tactics have torpedoed our competitiveness.

Probably one of the greatest PR blunders ever. Completely mismanaged from the get go.

[IliketoPuck]

I would like to encourage people who support getting Canadian resources to tidewater to voice their support for a much needed $36Bn project.

Use this link:

http://www.ceaa.gc.ca/050/document-e...ocument=104787

Opposition from a very vocal minority is strong. It would be nice to see some of the silent majority start to push back.

[IliketoPuck]

Following up on my above post, the deadline for submission of comments is this Friday.

If you take the time to read through some of the responses already posted, it is quite clear that a very vocal (and uninformed) minority is trying to hijack the process.

There has been a lot of hand wringing around Calgary (and in the Canadian energy industry in general) about not being able to get our resources to tidewater, and the efforts of various environmental special interest groups to dubiously delay Canadian energy projects.

Here is a chance to have your voice heard. Do it in a reasoned and thoughtful manner. Show that you care. Show that you understand the issues. Let the government know that the interest of Canada as a whole should be put before the (biased) interests of a very vocal few.

I don't want to turn this into a Jihad request, simply a request that those who have voiced frustration in the past channel that frustration productively.

[stampsx2]

At least one good thing happened today because of poor government policies. The boc held the interest rate at 0.5%. With Trudeau running the country I can actually see lending rates dropping even more.

[IliketoPuck]

For example, some of the comments lodged against the project, you'll notice a very common theme:

http://www.ceaa.gc.ca/050/documents/p80032/106780E.pdf

http://www.ceaa.gc.ca/050/documents/p80032/106778E.pdf

http://www.ceaa.gc.ca/050/documents/p80032/106773E.pdf

http://www.ceaa.gc.ca/050/documents/p80032/107093E.pdf

http://www.ceaa.gc.ca/050/documents/p80032/107086E.pdf

[ranchlandsselling]

It would be nice to see him get something out of this agreement although I highly doubt it.

Canada, U.S. agree to cut methane emissions from oil and gas industry by almost half by 2025

http://business.financialpost.com/ne..._lsa=3156-1947

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling

It would be nice to see him get something out of this agreement although I highly doubt it.

We are getting something. Half as much climate warming methane emissions.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

We are getting something. Half as much climate warming methane emissions.

Half as much from oil and gas;




We also need to feed our cattle BeanO