[PGT] Sens 6 Flames 1

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Not even close to the same thing.

Those teams had great underlying numbers and generally dictated play and drove possession.

Difference is they had the 25th best shooting percentage and 25th best save percentage in the league.

This team is different. They don’t dictate play. They are passive and collapse in their own zone. And their underlying stats have cratered in comparison to under Gulutzan and Peters iterations of the Flames.

Only thing keeping them afloat is Ward is getting decent shooting percentage (8.31% - 13th) and amazing goaltending (.926 - 6th) but his system is having them play way worse everywhere else on the ice.

In fact on the nights where Ward doesn’t get good goaltending the result often looks like tonight.

And that’s the biggest problem. These aren’t the same problems we’ve seen before, this team is playing worse than it has under any of the previous coaches. That’s why I think Ward and his systems are the biggest issue right now.

This is what it comes down to for me. This team looks worse under Ward than under Gulutzan.

It's like how Trump made us fondly remember George W Bush. When Bush was happening it felt terrible, but then Trump came along and Bush didn't seem too bad by comparison.

I didn't think anyone could make me miss Gulutzan hockey, but enter Geoff Ward and here we are.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Igottago

Said no one ever. You’re still posting the same type of response. Literally the only poster who isn’t assessing things multi dimensionally is you.

Feel free to ignore me then.

[Enoch Root]

Also, on a side note, I find it interesting that when the Flames have the lead, we can absolutely count on game management, and a parade to the penalty box. But when the Flames are behind, the whistles are put away.

One quick example: the trip/hold on Hanifin that created the turnover that led to the 6th goal.

(I have not yet read the thread, so sorry if this has been brought up a million times already)

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

It's both. But sometimes it more of one and less of the other. To figure out which party is more to blame in the current situation, you have to actually watch the games and analyze what's going on. Recommend having a look at the blog that SuperMatt linked to.

Agreed...and after watching these guys for the last 5 years?

The answer is definitive.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The Bernie Nichols data point is one of my favourite trivia questions. When you ask people to name 70 goal scorers, he is one a lot of people don’t think of

But that’s with prime Gretzky bouncing pucks in off his ass, everybody knows that’s different than Johnny

Gary Leeman? Never heard of him, doesn’t ring a bell

Johnny afraid of his shadow? I see him busting his ass. But fine. Put Lucic there, he can be the Semenko. Can’t get worse

Hey man I don’t have to talk about Ward all the time. Will quickly note without dwelling that he sucks and has to go. Everybody knows. Nothing anybody says can absolve him of this. It’s just who wants to rip the bandaid off and when they get around to it

I’m watching now because I am curious as to what rock bottom is and what it takes to make a change.

I dont believe you but it truly is a perfect comparison if you think about it.

As for rock bottom? Still a ways to go IMO...only because the boss is in year one of a 3 year deal

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Agreed...and after watching these guys for the last 5 years?

The answer is definitive.

I think you underestimate the player turnover over the last 5 years.

I'm not saying Boudreau takes them to the SCF, but I damn sure think he takes them to the playoffs, which I don't think Ward is capable of.

[TheRealPepman]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

It really sucks to suck while only playing other Canadian teams

This.

Thought I was the only one thinking that the unconventional schedule setup is possibly one of the reasons why the Flames have been terrible all year. The mere fact that they only have to play six teams instead of 30 teams was not an idea I was comfortable with the moment I first saw it in the news. (I honestly had a bad feeling about that notion and now it is coming to fruition.) And they have to play Canadian teams? Ugh. I already get nervous everytime the Flames play the Oilers/Canucks/Jets/Senators/Canadiens/Leafs, and now I'll get much more of these? God help me.

In my six years of fandom, from what I've seen, these current Flames thrive better when there's a different opponent every game. And obviously, the Flames are historically awful when they play the same team 3-4 times. Look at Anaheim in 2017. Look at Colorado in 2019. Look at Dallas in 2020. That's not their strong suit, simply put.

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Agreed...and after watching these guys for the last 5 years?

The answer is definitive.

Unproven/bargain bin coaches letting the team down year after year?

I dont believe this core is a cup contender, but they should be playoff locks and making at least some post season noise. Their decent regular season play the last number of years would indicate as much.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I dont believe you but it truly is a perfect comparison if you think about it.

As for rock bottom? Still a ways to go IMO...only because the boss is in year one of a 3 year deal

Pretty sure he was joking because of that whole Gilmour thing.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

I think you underestimate the player turnover over the last 5 years.

I'm not saying Boudreau takes them to the SCF, but I damn sure think he takes them to the playoffs, which I don't think Ward is capable of.

The core is the same. Unless you counted Brodie or Hamilton as part of that which I do not.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

What is the upside, though? Realistically...out in 5 games in the first round?

I refuse to believe a single coach, let alone the 4-5 this group has gone through, impacts the team THAT much to explain the effort we're seeing most nights.

Where's the self respect?

Bizarre take - what's the downside? Because the alternative is this garbage that we're watching now.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

Pretty sure he was joking because of that whole Gilmour thing.

I once had a delicious old fashioned that killed the exact brain cell with memory of this Gary Leeman. What a day that was!

[Dion]

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by transplant99

That is you projecting what you want things to be.

How about 16-17 and 17-18? You didnt include those years when many of the same guys were involved...wonder why?

Good/great for 60 games.

Really less than average for 3 1/4 years around those 60

Which would likely be more indicative of the truth?

That 2016-17 team was probably our best playoff performance. They ran into an incredible goaltending display by Gibson, and on the other hand had to contend with Elliott caving under pressure with some of the softest goals in recent NHL postseason history.

Strategically, they did all the right things in that series. I had issues with the coach for only one reason - he overplayed his 3rd decense pair. Bartkowski had no business being out on the ice so much, which was the primary issue with Gulutzan. Most would argue they were the superior team in that series, despite the Ducks going on to the WCF against a great Nashville team that had an almost identical season to the Flames.

The following season, they were sitting at 35-27-10 when Reeves ended Brodie's season. Gulutzan certainly deserved major criticism for attaching Brodie to Hamonic that year despite that pairing never working, among other absolutely baffling decisions (most often involving Troy Brouwer's usage) but at that point in the season, they were in the playoff race just as most playoff teams were. The wheels fell off between Brodie's concussion, Monahan and Tkachuk missing the rest of the season, and Gaudreau's play slipping following a literal heart attack in his family. The bigger issues with that team were discipline (never an issue under either Hartley or Peters!), static line/Dpair combinations (never an issue under Hartley, Peters... or for that matter Ward), underuse of his blue line in the offensive attack, and general player usage (Gulutzan had the smartest PK strategy for instance... and sabatoged it with Stajan and Brouwer as his go-to PK pairing for half that year). Little details like that killed the team. Absolutely no one thought that team was peforming to its potential. Not even Gulutzan would argue that team didn't ultimately underperform.

Gulutzan had his issues and deserved to be axed, but he also highlighted a lot of the strengths of this team - their ability to truly carry the play in particular. This carried over into the next season under Peters, who kept the team playing to the strengths Gulutzan highlighted, while also had them playing to the strengths Gulutzan masked. Forget the record - the team was carrying the play and looking fantastic doing it at both ends. Peters looked like the right coach for the job until he tried to overcompensate for Smith's rough season by playing a more defensive style, while playing bizarre mindgames with his #2 defenseman down the stretch and no longer utilizing the line Blender that had been so kind to him for most of the year. Basically... he stopped being the same coach. It sounds so absurd - but it actually happened! We all saw it! The team that lost in the playoffs was outcoached - and I say this as someone who was praising Peters left and right earlier that season.

As for the following season? Specifically eith respect to Peters' short time as coach... Hamonic was done. When your #4D starts playing like a #8 it has a huge effect. Of course I was catching a ton of flack on CP for my criticism of Hamonic. Funny, my sentiments at that time are suddenly the general consensus now, but at the time I was being called out by people like... yourself for being critical of this "Warrior"'s actual play on the ice.

Ward comes in... and has a lot more time to make adjustments... and zilch. He kept Hanifin - Hamonic together all year until a fortunate injury to Hamonic saved his coaching career by forcing him to have Andersson up the lineup.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by transplant99

The core is the same. Unless you counted Brodie or Hamilton as part of that which I do not.

Lindholm? Markstrom? Tkachuk? Defense is almost all new from 5 years ago.

There is a reason Trelieving's ex-coaches never see HC gigs again. And it's not because the Flames killed them. It's because they are not good at their job. Geoff Ward will join that list this off season.

[SuperMatt18]

^ This is completely random but I hate that the playoffs against the Ducks gets brought up as a failure for this core.

That was 100% on Elliott having one of the worst goaltending performances on the playoffs ever...no exaggeration.

Here were the low danger goals against numbers for that playoffs.

1) Ottawa - 19 GP - 12 LDGA
2) Nashville - 22 GP - 12 LDGA
3) Calgary - 4 GP - 7 LDGA
3) Pittsburgh - 25 GP - 7 LDGA

7 Low Danger Goals against in 4 games! The third highest number in the entire playoffs over a 4 game series. No team is ever winning with that type of goaltending.

And that’s why Ward’s failures are different to me. Gulutzan didn’t get good goaltending ever in his tenure here. Peters didn’t even get good goaltending and we finished 2nd in the league.

But Ward has good goaltending, and he is getting good shooting percentage. But the systems all over the ice are leading to a team to play worse by every other metric.

This is a team that was top 5 in Corsi for the large part of 3 straight years under two other coaches, that is now cratering in that metric and going from carrying play and dictating pace to playing passive collapse in front of your net hockey and just inviting pressure. That’s all coaching and systems IMO.

Originally Posted by transplant99

The core is the same. Unless you counted Brodie or Hamilton as part of that which I do not.

The core is completely the same if I exclude the guys that left that I conveniently don’t want to count (Brodie, Hamilton, Hamonic) or if I don’t include the new guys that are now part of the core (Markstrom, Tanev, Lindholm, Hanifin, Andersson)

But yeah 100% the same core!

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

Unproven/bargain bin coaches letting the team down year after year?

I dont believe this core is a cup contender, but they should be playoff locks and making at least some post season noise. Their decent regular season play the last number of years would indicate as much.

One good year...well 75% of one year anyhow, that being the year before last

Remember last season they were in a dogfight to make the playoffs when covid stopped things and the only team among those in a PO position to have a negative goal differential IIRC....and the year before the great 75% of the season? Missed all together.

Just the reality of things.

And for the record, though I put the majority of the blame on the players, they are not alone. Treliving is a huge part of it too...this team is so poorly constructed its sad and i am a BT guy.

[Manhattanboy]

Good point. But for Covid would the Flames have even made the playoffs last year?

[timun]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The Bernie Nichols data point is one of my favourite trivia questions. When you ask people to name 70 goal scorers, he is one a lot of people don’t think of

But that’s with prime Gretzky bouncing pucks in off his ass, everybody knows that’s different than Johnny

I've always thought Bernie Nicholls is unfairly maligned for "Gretzky bouncing pucks in off his ass", when in reality they didn't even play on the same line. Nicholls mostly played with Robitaille and Dave Taylor, whereas Gretzky played with a revolving door of wingers including Bobby Carpenter, Mike Krushelnyski, Mike Allison and Igor Liba.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by transplant99

One good year...well 75% of one year anyhow, that being the year before last

Remember last season they were in a dogfight to make the playoffs when covid stopped things and the only team among those in a PO position to have a negative goal differential IIRC....and the year before the great 75% of the season? Missed all together.

Just the reality of things.

And for the record, though I put the majority of the blame on the players, they are not alone. Treliving is a huge part of it too...this team is so poorly constructed its sad and i am a BT guy.

They didn’t miss the playoffs in 17-18 because this core played poorly though.

They missed the playoffs because they shot 7.83% (29th) and because they had bad goaltending (.905 - 21st)

Overall that team drove possession, generated quality and limited chances.

Corsi For %: 53.1% (2nd)
xGF%: 51.4 (9th)

HDCF%: 54.1% (4th)
HDCF/60: 12.87 (2nd)
HDCA/60: 10.9 (12th)

The fact that they were as close as they were and finished 20th with a .512 points percentage was actually pretty remarkable in retrospect because usually if you have that mix of shooting percentage and save percentage you are a bottom 5 team.

IIRC I was actually a pretty big Gulutzan defender at that time and still think he was somewhat unfairly treated for what was a combination of bad shooting luck and poor goaltending. He made his mistakes like being adamant to play Brodie on the left side, but overall he had this team playing strong structured hockey, and had is team in much better shape than Ward has this team.

If Ward had that shooting percentage and save percentage mix this year we’d be 31st for sure.