Johnny Gaudreau named NHL First Star of the Week

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

How effective do highly skilled yet undersized players become as they enter their 30s? Look at Daniel Briere as a comparable; his production declined rather noticably as he progressed through his 30s. His most productive season was '06-07 when he was the same age Johnny is now; he got 95 points in 81 games. He was never a PPG player again after that.

I don't know if it makes sense to pay Johnny almost McDavid-type money for 8 years when we don't know how effective he can be in his 30s.

The only other highly skilled undersized guy I could think of was Martin St. Louis. Not sure if he can be considered undersized with tree trunk legs, but that's what I thought of. Checked it out and he was ~ppg until he was 38. It can change in a heartbeat, but Gaudreau has done an excellent job on avoiding injury. I think he can continue producing until he's 36-38.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

How effective do highly skilled yet undersized players become as they enter their 30s? Look at Daniel Briere as a comparable; his production declined rather noticably as he progressed through his 30s. His most productive season was '06-07 when he was the same age Johnny is now; he got 95 points in 81 games. He was never a PPG player again after that.

I don't know if it makes sense to pay Johnny almost McDavid-type money for 8 years when we don't know how effective he can be in his 30s.

Marty St Louis was dominant until he was nearly 40.

Gaudreau is as durable and elusive as any superstar in the game.

[megatron]

https://www.nhl.com/news/johnny-gaud...ek/c-328215924

Gaudreau led the NHL with 4-3-7, including two game-winning goals, in four contests to help the Flames (11-3-5, 27 points) post a 3-0-1 week en route to climbing into first place in the Pacific Division and Western Conference. He collected the primary assist on Calgary's lone goal in a 2-1 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers Nov. 16. Gaudreau then recorded 2-1-3, marking his 39th career three-point outing, 28th career multi-goal performance and 34th career game-winning goal, in a 5-0 triumph over the Buffalo Sabres Nov. 18. He followed that with 1-1-2 as the Flames spoiled the opening of UBS Arena, the new home of the New York Islanders, with a 5-2 victory Nov. 20. Gaudreau capped the week with his third game-winning goal of the season, tied for fourth in the League, in a 4-0 triumph against the Boston Bruins Nov. 21. The 28-year-old Salem, N.J., native - who has found the scoresheet in 13 of his 19 appearances - ranks sixth in the NHL with 8-14-22 overall in 2021-22.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Marty St Louis was dominant until he was nearly 40.

Gaudreau is as durable and elusive as any superstar in the game.

True enough.

Usually, players like that tail off when their twitch reflexes start to go, which generally happens between ages 35 and 40. Exactly when depends mainly on genetics.

Here's hoping that Gaudreau is one of the long-lasting ones! Even if not, he should be an effective player at least until 35.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Marty St Louis was dominant until he was nearly 40.

Gaudreau is as durable and elusive as any superstar in the game.

Marty was also one of the most fit players in the league for his entire career, can't say the same for Gaudreau

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

The only other highly skilled undersized guy I could think of was Martin St. Louis. Not sure if he can be considered undersized with tree trunk legs, but that's what I thought of. Checked it out and he was ~ppg until he was 38. It can change in a heartbeat, but Gaudreau has done an excellent job on avoiding injury. I think he can continue producing until he's 36-38.

Fleury is probably the most skilled undersized guy I ever saw. I wonder what his career would hav been like absent his issues, since I don’t recall any serious injuries.

Kariya was considered a small guy and his career was shortened by a lot. Especially his productive career. Savard was highly skilled, undersized and had a pretty long career - over 1K games, producing well until the last 2-3 years.

That all said, if the sticking point is term, then I’m happy to overpay for a 6 year term. The window of the team can’t be any longer than that anyway, with the ages of Markstrom, Tanev, and Lindholm.

[frodo_t_baggins]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

How effective do highly skilled yet undersized players become as they enter their 30s? Look at Daniel Briere as a comparable; his production declined rather noticably as he progressed through his 30s. His most productive season was '06-07 when he was the same age Johnny is now; he got 95 points in 81 games. He was never a PPG player again after that.

I don't know if it makes sense to pay Johnny almost McDavid-type money for 8 years when we don't know how effective he can be in his 30s.

Briere did lead the scoring race in the 2010 playoffs (30 in 23 GP) as a 32 year old and did follow that up with 34 goals in 70 games the next season. He also scored 13 points in 11 playoff games as a 34 year old, so although he wasn’t a regular season point per game player, he was still quite effective until he was about 35.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by MrMike

In four games, Gaudreau registered four goals and seven points with 23 shots on net, helping push the Flames to a 3-0-1 record to close out their trip.

... and 1 hit!

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Marty St Louis was dominant until he was nearly 40.

Gaudreau is as durable and elusive as any superstar in the game.

Can't seem to link image but click on link. Martin St. Louis was a beast.

https://www.google.com/search?q=mart...mrzu7iwhbbw0zM

[schteve_d]

That has to drive Oiler fans crazy that l'il Johnny gets picked above the wonder twins! I love it!

[Poe969]

He just needed a coach that could motivate him the best way. Fear.

Originally Posted by gvitaly

1. 
2. 
3. https://twitter.com/user/status/1462607557361475584
4. Great success

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Fleury is probably the most skilled undersized guy I ever saw. I wonder what his career would hav been like absent his issues, since I don’t recall any serious injuries.

Kariya was considered a small guy and his career was shortened by a lot. Especially his productive career. Savard was highly skilled, undersized and had a pretty long career - over 1K games, producing well until the last 2-3 years.

That all said, if the sticking point is term, then I’m happy to overpay for a 6 year term. The window of the team can’t be any longer than that anyway, with the ages of Markstrom, Tanev, and Lindholm.

Then don't you hand out more term to keep the AAV down during the contention window? Frees up money when you need it.

If you're rebuilding after that then having an overpaid less productive Gaudreau around is no big deal.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Then don't you hand out more term to keep the AAV down during the contention window? Frees up money when you need it.

If you're rebuilding after that then having an overpaid less productive Gaudreau around is no big deal.

No, first - I think he won’t want more term. But most of all I’d rather slightly overpay ($11M v 9 or 10) for a year or two than massively overpay for the last two ($9 or 10M versus what he might be worth if he nosedives). Plus he’s going to get NMCs that hamstring the team and it’s best to keep those shorter. I overall dislike long contracts. SJ looks ugly right now, though of course Gaudreau’s a lot younger than their big long term contracts. Doughty’s contract is going to look bad soon.

Gaudreau may be a good bet but I just think 6 year terms are fairer for everyone.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by schteve_d

That has to drive Oiler fans crazy that l'il Johnny gets picked above the wonder twins! I love it!

One more shutout and Markstrom will scoop player of the month away from them too.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

No, first - I think he won’t want more term. But most of all I’d rather slightly overpay ($11M v 9 or 10) for a year or two than massively overpay for the last two ($9 or 10M versus what he might be worth if he nosedives). Plus he’s going to get NMCs that hamstring the team and it’s best to keep those shorter. I overall dislike long contracts. SJ looks ugly right now, though of course Gaudreau’s a lot younger than their big long term contracts. Doughty’s contract is going to look bad soon.

Gaudreau may be a good bet but I just think 6 year terms are fairer for everyone.

I don’t think a veteran player sees shorter term as fairer. If you believe there is a window to contend I don’t know why you want to overpay for shorter term during that window.

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Marty St Louis was dominant until he was nearly 40.

Gaudreau is as durable and elusive as any superstar in the game.

JG's speed, agility and hands, and the ability to do everything at top speed, make him who he is -- all of which decline with age.

St. Louis was essentially a cube of muscle on skates, and one of the smartest players of his era. He remained effective because his vision and decision making were elite, and his physique made him pretty much bulletproof. Totally different players.

I think JG will have to change his game significantly to remain effective past 31/32. Even Gretzky saw a huge drop off in his effectiveness once his ability to elude physical plays declined as he slowed down and lost agility. For those reasons I'd be pretty hesitant to pay Gaudreau for 8 years.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I don’t think a veteran player sees shorter term as fairer. If you believe there is a window to contend I don’t know why you want to overpay for shorter term during that window.

If he wants to finish up somewhere else and thinks it’s possible for another big pay day he does. Two six year contracts is better than one 8 year contract, especially if the dollars add up to more.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

If he wants to finish up somewhere else and thinks it’s possible for another big pay day he does. Two six year contracts is better than one 8 year contract, especially if the dollars add up to more.

He will be 29 when this contract kicks in. It's not in his best interest to take shorter term to set him up for a better contract for when he is 35. Why would he bank on clubs lining up to give him a big contract until he is 41?

If Treliving wants to build a contender with Gaudreau in the lineup, ne needs to buy down the AAV with term. Not the other way around.

[Eric]

Originally Posted by BigRed

JG's speed, agility and hands, and the ability to do everything at top speed, make him who he is -- all of which decline with age.

St. Louis was essentially a cube of muscle on skates, and one of the smartest players of his era. He remained effective because his vision and decision making were elite, and his physique made him pretty much bulletproof. Totally different players.

I think JG will have to change his game significantly to remain effective past 31/32. Even Gretzky saw a huge drop off in his effectiveness once his ability to elude physical plays declined as he slowed down and lost agility. For those reasons I'd be pretty hesitant to pay Gaudreau for 8 years.

Patty Kane is 33 and uses all of the attributes you mentioned for his success in the league. Time will tell I suppose.

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by Eric

Patty Kane is 33 and uses all of the attributes you mentioned for his success in the league. Time will tell I suppose.

Kane is a good comparable for sure -- much better than St. Louis. Kane's numbers are a lot more impressive than Gaudreau's year to year though. Hard to predict how that apparently higher ceiling -- Is Kane more creative? Sees the ice better? Or has he just had better linemates? -- affects longevity. But it's the game between the ears that I think determines how long a player can realistically be effective.