Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[GGG]

So if we join at a similar rate it’s about 900k barrels from peak. I think curtailment is sitting at about 300k right now so 600k more to cut.

[burn_this_city]

Rystad projecting we shut in 1.1MBPD in Q2, starting essentially now.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...-Business.html

Says lack of storage and takeaway capacity means we won't get any positive bounce out of OPEC+ agreement.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Well there is now an OPEC+ agreement to cut production by 9.7 million barrels per day, or 10 percent

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-cut-in-output

[Fuzz]

Does it really matter? Aren't we producing an excess of 30 million bpd? And they don't start until May? By May they probably won't even have anyone to sell it to, all producers are going to be swimming in it.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Does it really matter? Aren't we producing an excess of 30 million bpd? And they don't start until May? By May they probably won't even have anyone to sell it to, all producers are going to be swimming in it.

That could make for a very interesting Calendar Shoot...

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Locke

That could make for a very interesting Calendar Shoot...

She's all oiled up and ready to pose!

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

She's all oiled up and ready to pose!

I was thinking more about Middle-Eastern Oil-Sheikhs wearing robes who might happen to smoke...

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Does it really matter? Aren't we producing an excess of 30 million bpd? And they don't start until May? By May they probably won't even have anyone to sell it to, all producers are going to be swimming in it.

Canada and the US will be down significantly without committed cuts. You can buy barrels to cover hedges cheaper than the marginal cost to make a barrel at a lot of locations right now.

[burn_this_city]

North America is probably down 1.5-2M already, with more to come in the next few weeks. I also doubt OPEC pumps flat out before May, there isn't enough floating storage or tankage that you can affordably store unsold production.

[Fuzz]

Back on march 25th, "the world is estimated to have 0.9-1.8 billion barrels of spare storage capacity". So until May, if there is 30 million excess production per day, that fills 900 million. In the best case scenario that buys 2 months. Lets say OPEC actually cuts 10% in May, so that buys you an extra week or 2. By mid June, there will be no storage left. Then what?


https://www.reuters.com/article/glob...-idUSL8N2BH3AM

[Voodooman]

A little off-topic, but I’ve seen 2 articles in the past day about the tribulations of Newfie oil patch workers trying to get home. Wouldn’t it be nice if all the money and resources the provincial gov’t is expending to resurrect the sector resulted in jobs for Albertans, and income tax revenue back into this province?

Why are these companies still employing out-of-province workers when (I have to assume) thousands of qualified Alberta residents in the sector are unemployed?

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Voodooman

A little off-topic, but I’ve seen 2 articles in the past day about the tribulations of Newfie oil patch workers trying to get home. Wouldn’t it be nice if all the money and resources the provincial gov’t is expending to resurrect the sector resulted in jobs for Albertans, and income tax revenue back into this province?

Why are these companies still employing out-of-province workers when (I have to assume) thousands of qualified Alberta residents in the sector are unemployed?

The same reason we hire TFW?

[Voodooman]

Originally Posted by Weitz

The same reason we hire TFW?

Isn't that generally because we can't find Canadian workers willing to do the specific job for the wages offered? Are you saying that AB workers are refusing work and NL workers are being hired because they are cheaper?

In some ways, I would have a hard time believing that, but in other ways, not at all. The sense of entitlement in this provinces workforce has historically been strong.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Voodooman

Isn't that generally because we can't find Canadian workers willing to do the specific job for the wages offered? Are you saying that AB workers are refusing work and NL workers are being hired because they are cheaper?

In some ways, I would have a hard time believing that, but in other ways, not at all. The sense of entitlement in this provinces workforce has historically been strong.

Its hard getting qualifed people in certain postions when it comes to O&G. So you will take those you can.

Also, when things are fly in fly out like a lot of North of Fort Mac people will live where they want.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Its hard getting qualifed people in certain postions when it comes to O&G. So you will take those you can.

Also, when things are fly in fly out like a lot of North of Fort Mac people will live where they want.

Seriously. Any detractors of FIFO haven't done fly-in/fly-out for an extended period of time (or at all). It's physically and mentally tougher than it sounds. I don't blame any Albertan for not wanting to do it, nor do I blame companies for hiring individuals where the expertise is and flying them in.

Also, FIFO kind of works to Alberta's advantage in showing the benefit of O&G to the country. One of the shifts at the producer I work at has people that FIFO from Victoria, Vancouver, Kelowna, Nova Scotia, Edmonton, Calgary. In addition to two Ontario transplants that moved to Fort Mac in the early to mid 00s. Not all shifts are like that, but where else can you find that amount of geographical diversity?

[DownhillGoat]

Originally Posted by Voodooman

Why are these companies still employing out-of-province workers when (I have to assume) thousands of qualified Alberta residents in the sector are unemployed?

I haven't seen either article you're referencing, but I assume their use of the term "Newfie oil patch workers" is based on the fact that they live in Newfoundland, and have a FIFO job in or near Ft. Mac.

If that's the case, this is including hundreds of people flying in and out for unskilled labour. Safety watches, camp cooks, security, cleaning staff, Tim Horton's employees, folks trying to get a foot in the door for construction with no former experience, and so on. Most of these jobs are on a 3 week in - 1 week out schedule - not a glamorous 1-1 or 2-2 that engineers or operators get.

Should we fire anyone that isn't from Alberta so we can hire Albertans now? Obviously, these employees have been there long before this Covid mess. So yeah, there's definitely jobs up there that people from a province with a historically much higher unemployment rate would fly to Alberta for, that many Albertans would not. It's not like they're importing engineers, operators, and specialists and leaving Albertans to hit the unemployment line.

And even if it is skilled labour - as boogerz pointed out, FIFO is much more taxing than most people give it credit for. Sure it's great to be able to live on the island and make some coin. But it's also a heck of a challenge to maintain friendships, relationships, start dating anyone, raise kids, keep a marriage together, have a pet - when you're removing and inserting yourself into your own life for two weeks at a time.

[indes]

Originally Posted by Voodooman

A little off-topic, but I’ve seen 2 articles in the past day about the tribulations of Newfie oil patch workers trying to get home. Wouldn’t it be nice if all the money and resources the provincial gov’t is expending to resurrect the sector resulted in jobs for Albertans, and income tax revenue back into this province?

Why are these companies still employing out-of-province workers when (I have to assume) thousands of qualified Alberta residents in the sector are unemployed?

Hahaha. The east coast took over the big projects of the oil sands a long time ago. Obviously there is lots of anecdotes but my favorite one was trying to get on commissioning at Kearl Lake. I called a contact I had in hiring and asked if they were looking for people, he asked if I was from the east coast and I said no, so he said no. I knew a few people up there and they confirmed it was an 'east coast only' thing.

Albertans in the oil patch are similar to Canadians in the NHL, the minority and only going down.

[skudr248]

Originally Posted by indes

Hahaha. The east coast took over the big projects of the oil sands a long time ago. Obviously there is lots of anecdotes but my favorite one was trying to get on commissioning at Kearl Lake. I called a contact I had in hiring and asked if they were looking for people, he asked if I was from the east coast and I said no, so he said no. I knew a few people up there and they confirmed it was an 'east coast only' thing.

Albertans in the oil patch are similar to Canadians in the NHL, the minority and only going down.

I spent 2 summers during uni as a craft worker (2013 and 2014) at Kearl Lake on the Expansion and fine tailings treatment project, was the only guy from Calgary in my crew there (out of roughly 45-50 guys). Couldn’t understand a word anybody said for weeks...

[Hemi-Cuda]

US judge cancels permit for Keystone XL

https://apnews.com/89e3f21d344db86b8743665ea66b892c

That can't be good

[Fuzz]

Goddammit.