Brad Treliving needs to go

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Fair enough. Obviously, none of these are home runs.

Another poster had said Treliving was at a 20/80 ratio on his UFA signings. That’s not accurate and smacks of hot takery. I would say he’s much closer to 50/50. If we’re going to evaluate the signing of Zach Rinaldo then do so through a lens of what the realistic expectations ought to be. He’s Zach Rinaldo, not Josh Anderson. Same with Toby Rieder. He was an excellent PKer who scored, what, 3SHG’s in the bubble? He easily out performed his contract and it was an easy ‘good’ signing. I’m not sure who gave him the advice to go to Buffalo, but that was a poor decision.

Hiller at best is a wash. One good season, one season where he practically took the team down with him.

Please do put together a list of good UFA signings made by Treliving. He's made 56 UFA signings thus far. You will need to find >17 good ones to get over the 30% mark. I'm confident your list will get real thin not even half way.

If you want to keep making the point that "other GMs are just as bad", then sure, there are other bad GMs.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Sure, there a point being made about how to build an organization, I get that.

What happens if the Flames didn’t sign Troy Brouwer, for example. Who fills that spot? Spencer Foo? This goes back beyond Treliving’s hiring but the organization, under 4 GM’s now has used UFA signings as a way to acquire NHL talent. People may want the Carolina Hurricanes or Winnipeg Jets, but I skeptical that will ever happen short of a change in ownership.

This is a silly hindsight deep dive, but what the hell. Going into UFA, the Flames looked something like this:

Gaudreau-Monahan-?????
?????-Backlund-Frolik
Tkachuk (rookie)-Bennett-?????
Bouma(2-UFA)-Stajan (2-UFA)-?????

In the org:
Ferland (coming off first full season - 71gp, 4G 16P season)
Chiasson - traded/signed June 27 - RHS
Hathaway (had only played 14 games at that point) - RHS
Shinkaruk
F Hamilton - RHS

Only Chiasson as a presumptive RHS, so prioritizing RHS made sense.

Ended up getting Versteeg on a PTO, too.

In the context of the time, you can see some logic of going for Brouwer, but the more difficult hole to fill was probably 1RW. There were plenty of low-risk/high-reward options out there (obviously not everyone would be willing to come). With hindsight, it was a great opportunity to do what FLA did this year.


Notable signings:

Vrbata (from VAN back to ARI) - 1x3.25 (35+ bonus laden) - put up 20G 55P

Brett Connolly 24 (from BOS no QO to WAS) - 1x850k
Stempniak (from NJD/BOS to CAR) 2x2.5M (coming off a 51pt season; scored 40 pts in CAR)
Riley Nash 27 (from CAR to BOS) 2x1.8M
Weise 27 (from MTL/CHI to PHI) - 4x2.35M
Chris Stewart 28 (from ANA back to MIN, where he'd played 20 games the year before) - 2x1.15M
Sceviour 27 (from DAL to FLA) - 2x950k
Purcell 30 (from EDM/FLA to LAK) - 1x1.6M - played 12 games and out of league
Perron 28 (from PIT/ANA back to STL) - 2x3.75M
Vanek 32 (from MIN to DET) - 1x2.6M (traded for a 3rd+McIlrath)
Parenteau 33 - 1x1.25 (from TOR to NYI, but waived to NJD) - eventually traded for a 6th at TDL
Smith-Pelley 24 RHS (from ANA no QO to NJD) - 2x1.3M
Sam Gagner 26 (from PHI to CBJ) 1x650k
Korpikoski LHS (from EDM to DAL) 1x1M (traded for a fringe prospect at TDL)
Grabner 28 LHS (from TOR to NYR) - 2x1.65M
Stalberg 30 LHS (from NYR to CAR) - 1x1.5M (traded at TDL for a 3rd)

Jooris 1x600k to NYR
Hudler 1x2M to DAL
Colborne (COL) 2x2.5M

Eaves (DAL) -re-signed 1x1M (traded TDL for cond. 1st = converted 29OA)
Matt Martin LHS
Boedker 26 LHS- 4x4
McGinn LHS -3x3.33M
Staal
R Bourque 1x650k to COL (12G in 65gp)
Steve OTT 1x800k to DET (traded for a 6th at TDL)

This was also the year or Ladd/Lucic/Okposo/Nielsen/Eriksson/Backes...so we weren't the only ones to chase a big aging winger on silly term.



Imagine if we tried a Nash/Stewart, Connolly/Smith-Pelley, and maybe even a Vrbata or Vanek (though harder to see the fit for him)?


If it goes well, you can still load up at the TDL (though there weren't many options available that year):

Iginla cost a cond. 4th (unconverted) at the TDL.
Stafford cost a 5th (could have been higher with conditions)

Otherwise, you might be able to sell a guy at the TDL.


Ultimately, there wasn't a great solution there. But Brouwer was never a perfect solution, either. At the best, we'd have had 2 good RW's in the middle 6 earning 4M+, but no great option at 1RW.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Hiller at best is a wash. One good season, one season where he practically took the team down with him.

Please do put together a list of good UFA signings made by Treliving. He's made 56 UFA signings thus far. You will need to find >17 good ones to get over the 30% mark. I'm confident your list will get real thin not even half way.

If you want to keep making the point that "other GMs are just as bad", then sure, there are other bad GMs.

On the other hand, if you consider Tobias Rieder a "very good signing," then that 30 percent threshold becomes very easy to hit.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I think the reality is every year every team makes a bunch of rather inconsequential depth signings. Probably best to focus on signings with either term or dollars over say 2m
The rest don’t really matter

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Ped

On the other hand, if you consider Tobias Rieder a "very good signing," then that 30 percent threshold becomes very easy to hit.

Give it a shot. I'll give you Rieder.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Give it a shot. I'll give you Rieder.

Are you looking at every UFA signing he's made? Guys that were clearly only signed for the AHL as well? Tough to call any of those 'good' signings when they were never intended to ever play on the Flames to begin with.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I think the reality is there every year every team makes a bunch of rather inconsequential depth signings. Probably best to focus on signings with either term or dollars over say 2m
The rest don’t really matter

This is true. And even limiting it to that Treliving's record doesn't look good.

Treliving's UFA record is so bad, I wish he just stockpiled picks and built the team entirely through the draft these past seven years.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I think the reality is there every year every team makes a bunch of rather inconsequential depth signings. Probably best to focus on signings with either term or dollars over say 2m
The rest don’t really matter

But is this basically redefining the problem such that it minimizes the shortcomings of the GM?

Do they not matter when they get slotted to play 2RW and fail to produce?

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Are you looking at every UFA signing he's made? Guys that were clearly only signed for the AHL as well? Tough to call any of those 'good' signings when they were never intended to ever play on the Flames to begin with.

Any guy that didn't see an NHL game you can eliminate. It doesn't really matter. The record is pretty consistent from top to bottom

[Ped]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Give it a shot. I'll give you Rieder.

Personally I would consider Rieder a meh signing.


I was just trying to point out the futility of the argument. Someone who thinks a player Rieder is a very good signing, is already going to think most of the signings are good, and probably won't be convinced otherwise.


I mean, really? Rieder? Alan Quine? They're depth signings, they're nothing. Occasionally you hit a homerun with one, or one is incredibly disappointing, but for the most, part, they're just kind of there.


As Jiri pointed out, usually they aren't signed to be difference-makers, just to basically exist.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

But is this basically redefining the problem such that it minimizes the shortcomings of the GM?

Do they not matter when they get slotted to play 2RW and fail to produce?

The issue isn't really the signings, but roster construction and player development.

Nearly every year we've had too many LW's, C's, and LD's. The failure IMO is being unwilling to deal from strength to fix weakness.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Ped

Personally I would consider Rieder a meh signing.


I was just trying to point out the futility of the argument. Someone who thinks a player Rieder is a very good signing, is already going to think most of the signings are good, and probably won't be convinced otherwise.


I mean, really? Rieder? Alan Quine? They're depth signings, they're nothing. Occasionally you hit a homerun with one, or one is incredibly disappointing, but for the most, part, they're just kind of there.


As Jiri pointed out, usually they aren't signed to be difference-makers, just to basically exist.

Good/bad is certainly subjective. I'm encouraging others to go through the exercise to see how quickly they'll be confronted with "can I argue this was a good acquisition?"

But it doesn't really matter. Treliving's UFA signings are a long list of sad. A lot of filler, way too many big ticket disasters and a few modest successes in between. Tanev is the closest thing to a homerun Treliving has at this point.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

But is this basically redefining the problem such that it minimizes the shortcomings of the GM?

Do they not matter when they get slotted to play 2RW and fail to produce?

Actually I think it makes it worse for him
I’m surprised this is even a debate
His ufa work has been poor on the whole
My suggestion was simply to remove the noise of trivial moves like signifng Zac Rinaldo

[powderjunkie]

If we're talking consequential signings (2+ or 2+), there are only 10:

Tanev
Frolik

Ryan
Engelland
Hiller
Czarnik (2x1.25 = barely consequential?)
Markstrom TBD...


Stone*
Raymond
Neal
Brouwer

2 good; 4 meh/tbd; 4 bad.


The question I have is what is the league average (on 2+ or 2+ deals)? I'd guess:
Great = 5%
Good = 15%
Meh = 50%
Bad = 30%

Tre is almost certainly below average, but maybe not by much. The bigger issue is trying to fix so many issues by UFA and trading picks.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by TOfan

yes, Gaudreau has always been special. But if I were to wager, not many were predicting he was going to be, at one point, a 99 point player. At least, not in the NHL. Part of what makes Gio and JG special is they overcame the limits others had placed on them.

The point I was responding to was that there seems be a common thought here that the Flames don't have much in the cupboards, and that may be true, but it is not the foregone conclusion some are making it out to be. Is it completely inconceivable that Zary can't be a first line player, or Wolf a staring G, or Pelletier a top 6 forward?

Not inconceivable at all, but less likely than a known blue chip prospect becoming a star.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

If we're talking consequential signings (2+ or 2+), there are only 10:

Not sure what source you are using, I can't find a good one, but that list can't be complete. Just off the top of my head Engelland is missing. He was a serviceable dman and fan favorite but was way overpaid, not sure if people would call that a good signing or not. As it was the cap hit didn't hurt us but a contending team can't pay a 4-6 dman scoring 10-15ish points 3 x 3M.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Not sure what source you are using, I can't find a good one, but that list can't be complete. Just off the top of my head Engelland is missing. He was a serviceable dman and fan favorite but was way overpaid, not sure if people would call that a good signing or not. As it was the cap hit didn't hurt us but a contending team can't pay a 4-6 dman scoring 10-15ish points 3 x 3M.

capfriendly. i just missed him. Everything else stands as Czarnik is pretty inconsequential.

A contending team can't pay Derek Ryan 3.125 to be 4C either, but on balance it is still an okay+ signing.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

If we're talking consequential signings (2+ or 2+), there are only 10:

Tanev
Frolik

Ryan
Engelland
Hiller
Czarnik (2x1.25 = barely consequential?)
Markstrom TBD...


Stone*
Raymond
Neal
Brouwer

2 good; 4 meh/tbd; 4 bad.


The question I have is what is the league average (on 2+ or 2+ deals)? I'd guess:
Great = 5%
Good = 15%
Meh = 50%
Bad = 30%

Tre is almost certainly below average, but maybe not by much. The bigger issue is trying to fix so many issues by UFA and trading picks.

This seems pretty fair to me. I think though that you could bump Ryan up to good, opposed to meh, and Markstrom has a shot at being great for the majority of his deal. I would also think Engellend was closer to good than meh. As previously pointed out, he was overpaid, but he definitely brought value.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by TOfan

This seems pretty fair to me. I think though that you could bump Ryan up to good, opposed to meh, and Markstrom has a shot at being great for the majority of his deal. I would also think Engellend was closer to good than meh. As previously pointed out, he was overpaid, but he definitely brought value.

Agreed; I think it's pretty tough to parse fine from good from great. Bad tends to be obvious

Okay+ = I'd do it again (Ryan, Engelland)
Okay = No real regrets (Hiller)
Okay- = Mildly disappointig/probably wouldn't repeat it (Czarnik; Stone might belong here based on the health circumstances)


Obviously Tanev is still early. Frolik was very good 3 years, fine 1 year, and the 5th year meh+4th rd pick.

Ryan = very good 2 years, fine 1 year (so ya, maybe he should be 'good')

Engelland
1st year = 5th among regular D at 14:23 TOI...but 4th 20:04 ATOI in 11 playoff games w/o Gio.
2nd year = 6th 15:14
3rd year = 5th 18:20 (5th; 15:17 in 4 PO games)
bonus getting claimed in ED, and of course leadership/toughness.

I suppose he's probably a 'good' signing, too.



I guess the issue is that 'good' signings rarely offset bad ones. Hossa, Chara, Niedermayer, etc. are a lot rarer than Okposo/Eriksson/Alzner/etc.

[Reign of Fire]

As the days go by, I think its safe to assume Tre will be here next year