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Old 12-16-2022, 09:12 AM   #1
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Default Flames Metrics (5 Game Segments)

The Flames were building some decent metrics, but not necessarily getting the results in the standings, but that has changed recently.

Here is the club's trajectory on a few key elements in 5 game segments ...



- Chances against were high to start the season, and then rectified for the most part, but have now popped up again in the last 5 games. (HD and SC)
- HD chances for continue to be a problem and have gotten worse in the last segment. SC are also sliding.
- xGF% has been steady all season, but now nose diving
- Even shot volume, the Sutter calling card has been crushed of late (weighed heavily by the game at home against Minnesota and game in Toronto).

The foundation argument ... team building up it's defensive base, the offence is coming ... getting hard to make with the most recent results.
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Old 12-16-2022, 09:17 AM   #2
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Is this all 5v5 or would the penalty parade play into it
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Old 12-16-2022, 09:30 AM   #3
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Is this all 5v5 or would the penalty parade play into it
All five on five.
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Old 12-16-2022, 09:37 AM   #4
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I think goaltending and defence have cleaned up since the start of the season.

Goal scoring and powerplay consistency seems to be the big issue. Not sure how the first one is going to change with the current roster.

Inconsistency on game preparation seems to be a bit of an issue at times. Especially at the start of games.
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Old 12-16-2022, 09:47 AM   #5
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I think goaltending and defence have cleaned up since the start of the season.

Goal scoring and powerplay consistency seems to be the big issue. Not sure how the first one is going to change with the current roster.

Inconsistency on game preparation seems to be a bit of an issue at times. Especially at the start of games.
That was my assumption too ... but it may not be the case.

They were terrible with 30+ scoring chances against to start the season, cleaned that up to 22 but now it's upward again.

Goal scoring is an issue because they're not generating enough blue chip chances.
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Old 12-16-2022, 10:00 AM   #6
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To be fair, chance against aren't solely driven by defensive play. If the offence can't generate anything and turns the puck over a lot, you're going to get more transition offence against you. From my eye test we've given up a lot of odd-man rushes by turning the puck over in the neutral zone.


So both things can be true: our defensive play is improving, but sloppy play with the puck is creating a lot of chances against.
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Old 12-16-2022, 10:16 AM   #7
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Does seem to support the idea that through the first 5 games or so while the offence was good Sutter wasn’t happy about the defence and then clamped it up. Defence improved for a while but offence declined and has never really recovered. It even has gotten worse lately which is disappointing given the weak teams they’ve been playing.
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Old 12-16-2022, 10:32 AM   #8
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If we're going to be mediocre, I'd rather do it the exciting way.
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Old 12-16-2022, 10:53 AM   #9
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Well, that's...depressing.
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Old 12-16-2022, 10:57 AM   #10
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Yeah usually Bingo brings us hope lol
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Old 12-16-2022, 11:18 AM   #11
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Despite these statistical dips, we're still getting points.

My attempt at a bright side.
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Old 12-16-2022, 11:21 AM   #12
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My office blocks images so I can't see the supporting pictures but your summary notes match the eye test the last few weeks. It feels like they've gone from outplaying the opponent and getting no breaks to simply being mediocre and still getting no breaks.

That's what was so disappointing about all those games Calgary let get away (the Edmonton Markstrom gaff for example) when they were playing good hockey.

Usually a team turns it around on paper before they turn it around in the standings.
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Old 12-16-2022, 11:40 AM   #13
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I see the tale of a team whose faith in what the coach was preaching as well as morale has fallen off recently, but whose goaltending has improved to counter that a little

net result: a string of OTL points
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Old 12-16-2022, 11:40 AM   #14
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This team just isn't as focused as they need to be. The amount of dumb penalties theyve been taking and horrible turnovers they've had, also all the early goals they've been giving up, tells me that this team isn't as focused and engaged as they need to be to be successful.

I figured they'd have trouble with chemistry to start the year and slowly it would come together but from what I have watched the last month they've straight up gotten worse.

Some players look like they're coming around but as a team they've taken giant steps backwards, its a bad sign and if it doesn't correct itself soon they won't make the playoffs.
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Old 12-16-2022, 12:21 PM   #15
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It would be interesting to see the comparison with, say, top quartile teams averages' in each category.
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Old 12-16-2022, 12:32 PM   #16
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The top pairing hasn't really taken as much scrutiny from the fans like the top line, the coaching or the goaltending has, but it should. Hanifin-Andersson are awful this year. there's this narrative going around that Andersson is "coming into his own as a #1" because he has some points, but they've come completely unglued defensively.


edit: trying to share an image showing the top line's metrics but I apparently don't know how to embed them on this forum. here's the link.
https://imgur.com/fF9zVWJ
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Old 12-16-2022, 01:43 PM   #17
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https://mobile.twitter.com/PuckLuck8...00364250058753

This goes into some of the similar metrics and such. Worth checking out.
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Old 12-16-2022, 02:17 PM   #18
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Quote:
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It would be interesting to see the comparison with, say, top quartile teams averages' in each category.
Very good idea.

Updated with where the tenth best team is in every category.

I don't think you need to hit all of them to be a contender, but it's a good guidline.



Excellent for showing what I was thinking ...

- Against metrics were good until the last five games
- Chances for has been an issue all season
- xGF% was fine, now hurting
- Show volume the same thing.

Honestly putting in the 10th spot lines makes this more optimistic. They were there, didn't get the results and have had a slide.
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Old 12-16-2022, 03:55 PM   #19
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I think these numbers match the eye test, for sure.

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I see the tale of a team whose faith in what the coach was preaching as well as morale has fallen off recently, but whose goaltending has improved to counter that a little

net result: a string of OTL points
I am not going to speculate on whether or not they blame the coach, but I agree with the fact that they look like a team that has lost faith a bit - which explains the offensive drop-off.

I remain absolutely confident that, if/when they get on a roll, they will look like the contenders most of us thought they were. But so far, they just keep shooting themselves in the foot, and the lack of traction seems to be starting to take a toll.

They need to win a couple games - right fricking now.
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Old 12-16-2022, 04:45 PM   #20
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I think these numbers match the eye test, for sure.



I am not going to speculate on whether or not they blame the coach, but I agree with the fact that they look like a team that has lost faith a bit - which explains the offensive drop-off.

I remain absolutely confident that, if/when they get on a roll, they will look like the contenders most of us thought they were. But so far, they just keep shooting themselves in the foot, and the lack of traction seems to be starting to take a toll.

They need to win a couple games - right fricking now.
They haven't found a way to create offence as a group.

Too few transition players on the team is killing them.

They have Andersson, Dube and Backlund.

Lindholm, Huberdeau, Toffoli, aren't great at taking the puck up the ice. Guys like Kadri and Mangiapane do it, but as solo acts.

The transition is dead.

It could turn around. It might not.
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