What will Jankowski's next contract look like?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

This is a topic that I haven't seen anyone discuss yet around here. Jankowski has been told to find a place in Calgary, meaning he's on the roster likely for the rest of the year and probably is an NHLer going forward (unless his game falls apart overnight). Here are some facts about Jankowski to think about before discussing his price:

-RFA this off-season after his ELC currently making $925K
-23 years old
-2 years of pro experience: 1 in the AHL and 1 likely to be almost entirely in the NHL.
-Dominated the AHL in his time there to the tune of 64 points in 70 games and a +27
-Plays all situations already in the NHL (5 on 5, PK, PP) and plays center behind Monahan and Backlund.
-Has scored 12 points in 31 games to date. This translates to a 0.39 point-per-game pace that would result in about 32 points over a full season as a rookie. He may yet pick up the offense even more as his line has been very good for a while now.
-CorsiFor%Close 5 on5 is 51.3%. That's pretty exceptional for a rookie. Just for reference: The recently named rookie of the month for December was Brock Boeser. His number in this same category is 46.9%....as a winger who shoots a LOT.
-Other various underlying stats: Face-off %: 52.9%. Shot blocks: 14 (approx. 0.5/game). Giveaway to takeaway ratio: 5:10 (so he takes the puck away twice as often as he gives it away).

So here's my take: I think he's part of the core moving forward, and if he had a little more experience, he might replace Mikael Backlund on the 2nd line going forward, allowing Treliving to trade Backlund when his value is highest rather than re-signing him to a pricey contract. He's already a good penalty killer and drives possession well. He's shown in the AHL that he will put up points, and he's progressed at every level so far (College, AHL, NHL).

I think Janko is a guy that you move right past the bridge contract and lock him into an 8 year team friendly deal. I think you pay for potential a little up front, but if you can get him signed to an 8 year deal at $3.5-4 million, you do it. We've seen teams lock up good young players early on when possible.

Now I'm no contract expert, so be kind if you disagree with me. What does everyone else think? If you do a bridge deal, what does it look like? Is my long term deal out to lunch, or is it fair value for both sides?

[Geeoff]

Random number: 2 years/1.8 AAV

[CaptainCrunch]

I would think his agent would be insane to talk about anything but a bridge deal.

[puckedoff]

Jarnkrok deal as a base model please

[Vinny01]

1 way bridge deal at a very reasonable rate 2-3 years in length

[Phaneufenstein]

It will most likely be printed on paper and will have term length and dollar values.
Thank you.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by puckedoff

Jarnkrok deal as a base model please

Not a bad idea. 5 years at $2 million? However, that takes him to UFA status at 28, and he might be very pricey by then. It should be noted that Jarnkrok is 3 years older than Janko.

[Lil Pedro]

Wouldn't hate a long term contract at a reasonable cap hit, but I think this goes the way of the bridge deal. The body of work just isn't there yet for Janko.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I think Janko is a guy that you move right past the bridge contract and lock him into an 8 year team friendly deal. I think you pay for potential a little up front, but if you can get him signed to an 8 year deal at $3.5-4 million, you do it. We've seen teams lock up good young players early on when possible.

Now I'm no contract expert, so be kind if you disagree with me. What does everyone else think? If you do a bridge deal, what does it look like? Is my long term deal out to lunch, or is it fair value for both sides?

It's not out to lunch... but you have to pay him what he's worth now (AKA no buying spec on future potential). IMO the team is taking a big gamble if they're handing an 8 year deal to a guy coming off his inaugural year in the league. That risk should come with a corresponding reward... and I don't think the numbers you floated = a corresponding reward. Get it down to 2.5-3.0 and I think that's more reflective of the risk/reward spectrum we're dealing with here

[TheScorpion]

I'm gonna say something similar to Bennett's deal, given that his production this year looks to be similar to Bennett's last year.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I'm gonna say something similar to Bennett's deal, given that his production this year looks to be similar to Bennett's last year.

I think his underlying numbers look better than Bennett's though

[smiggy77]

Would love a team friendly contract for 8 years but I agree with other posters, his agent would be insane to do that. I'd say similar,but slightly less, than Bennett's bridge deal as Bennett had 2 years of NHL hockey.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I think his underlying numbers look better than Bennett's though

But I'd argue less high-end potential given age and pedigree, although at this point, not too drastically different

[ComixZone]

7 or 8 years, somewhere around 4M.

Cap going up to 80M, the time is right to land Jankowski through his prime years in a very Nashville-style contract. It keeps him locked up long-term, slots him as our 2nd line centre going forward, although even if he’s our 3rd line centre - paying 4M’ish for a very good 3rd line centre is a very good deal.

He’s a centre with size and has been very impressive in his AHL and NHL debut seasons. I don’t believe you’re getting him long term for below 4M.

[Aarongavey]

I would try to sign him to the 8 year deal in your original post. I am a huge fan of the Preds approach of overpaying short term and getting young assets locked in long term (Arvidsson, Jarnkrok, Josi, Ekholm, Ellis). Works well for them.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I think his underlying numbers look better than Bennett's though

Translation: he never had to play with Troy Brouwer

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

7 or 8 years, somewhere around 4M.

Cap going up to 80M, the time is right to land Jankowski through his prime years in a very Nashville-style contract. It keeps him locked up long-term, slots him as our 2nd line centre going forward, although even if he’s our 3rd line centre - paying 4M’ish for a very good 3rd line centre is a very good deal.

He’s a centre with size and has been very impressive in his AHL and NHL debut seasons. I don’t believe you’re getting him long term for below 4M.

My thoughts exactly, although since he has limited NHL experience, I figured you could get him on that deal for $3.5 M. Not sure he would go for it, but it's what i would try and do.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Translation: he never had to play with Troy Brouwer

Bennett's CorsiFor%5on5Close this year is 49% and he's played most of the year with Jankowksi. In the previous 2 years he was at 48 and 48.5%.

I appreciate your non-stop hate for Brouwer, if only for the dedication, but your argument doesn't hold water here.

I just checked, and I don't think Brouwer played with Bennett for a single game this year.

[Erick Estrada]

Treliving has really shined at this aspect of the job so I'm not too worried about how this turns out. A lot will depend on the confidence level of Jankowski and his agent if they prefer a bit of security or are bullish on his abilities.

[Wolfman]

4yrs at 2 per would be more than fair for a guy that is only going to have one year of NHL under his belt.