American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I get about 308 EVs for Biden. My hot take is I’m giving him Georgia but not Florida.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...AL:1,VA:0,ME:0

[octothorp]

We often do a separate thread for predictions. I'll go create one.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

So, I just did that with the following simple method. I took the RealClearPolitics polling average for each state, and assumed that it was off by 2% in Biden's favour.

The result was as follows.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...NM:0,NH:0,PA:0

Basically it all comes down to PA, predictably.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

It’s an interesting tool because it adjusts the remaining states based on your picks.

I did this another way, and the results were interesting: I started by giving Nevada to Biden, because Nevada elections guru Jon Ralston says Nevada is done due to early vote and a huge Clark County “firewall” that he thinks cannot be erased on E-Day. Then I gave NE-2 to Biden, and that’s based on Cook Political Report’s Dave Wassermann who says Trump is not competitive there based on private unreleased surveys (public ones have showed a tight race with Biden slightly ahead).

Based on those two calls alone, Biden’s EV total goes up to the 370s and his win chance to over 99%. 538 thinks that if he wins those two he stands a pretty good chance of an upper Midwest sweep and also winning NC and Georgia.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

I'd like to cut bizkitgto out of my life.

Yeah, as soon as I hear the both sides, many sides crap I pretty much know I'm dealing with someone who doesn't think and its best to hold them at arms length or cut them off.

[robbie111]

Went through the 538 map and was shocked with the outcome. Seriously the entire race is really in 4 states, Arizona, Texas, Pennsylvania and Florida. If Biden can pick up any one of those 4 states then he wins. If Trump gets all 4 it will be a long ugly night.

Even so, I am predicting Biden to win the popular vote by close to 10 million people. If he loses those 4 states he loses the electoral college If so, democracy is really dead in the states and this is going to get horribly bad.

With Biden winning just Arizona out of the 4 he wins 269.9 to 268.1

With Biden winning just Texas out of the 4 he wins 297.2 to 240.8

With Biden winning just Florida out of the 4 he wins 287 to 251

With Biden winning just Pennsylvania out of the 4 he wins 278.8 to 259.2

If Trump wins all 4 he wins 279.8 to 258.2

[octothorp]

Prediction thread is here! Let me know if there are any questions you'd like added!

https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=181164

[burn_this_city]

I'm mentally preparing for 4 more years of chaos.

[RichieRich]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

So, I just did that with the following simple method. I took the RealClearPolitics polling average for each state, and assumed that it was off by 2% in Biden's favour.

The result was as follows.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...NM:0,NH:0,PA:0

Basically it all comes down to PA, predictably.

To play devil's advocate here... what if it was off 2% in Trumps favor?

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by bizkitgto

Nice attitude.

When lifelong Democrat Mayra Gomez told her 21-year-old son five months ago that she was voting for Donald Trump in Tuesday’s presidential election, he cut her out of his life.

“He specifically told me, ‘You are no longer my mother, because you are voting for Trump’,” Gomez, 41, a personal care worker in Milwaukee, told Reuters. Their last conversation was so bitter that she is not sure they can reconcile, even if Trump loses his re-election bid.

“The damage is done. In people’s minds, Trump is a monster. It’s sad. There are people not talking to me anymore, and I’m not sure that will change,” said Gomez, who is a fan of Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigrants and handling of the economy.

Gomez is not alone in thinking the bitter splits within families and among friends over Trump’s tumultuous presidency will be difficult, if not impossible, to repair, even after he leaves office.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN27I16E

The thing is... even if on the pros side you have the illegal immigrants issue and "handling" of the economy..

The list of cons is exponentially... exponentially larger. Now you have his red hat wearing cult members holding up streets, disrupting life for others, attempting to impede people from using their constitutional right to vote, things that go against a western democracy. And he's fine with this, and enables these people.

I don't think we should be cutting people out entirely over where they stand, but these people that are also willing to overlook that kind of behavior like it's an acceptable means to an end in today's society with the freedoms that previous generations struggled to grant us need to be sent to the proverbial doghouse at least for jumping on board with this idiocy. No question.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by RichieRich

To play devil's advocate here... what if it was off 2% in Trumps favor?

Corsi assumed the polls were +2% in Biden's favour over actual results.

If it went the other way, it would be a Biden landslide for the ages.

[bizkitgto]

If — and it’s a huge if — the polls are right, Joe Biden is about to post the largest popular-vote victory in the six presidential elections held in the 21st century. There are plenty of obvious explanations for his lead, mostly having to do with his opponent’s disastrous presidency. But there’s a more revealing, if esoteric account: Biden is also the first candidate to follow the electoral formula laid out in “The Emerging Democratic Majority,” a 2002 book that promised Democrats a route to enduring dominance of American politics.

Still, Democrats burned out on the Trump years shouldn’t get too excited: If Biden is the first “emerging Democratic majority” candidate, he’s also likely to be the last.

Joe Biden is the first and last ‘Emerging Democratic Majority’ candidate

[AltaGuy]

As ever, the Republicans will need to move to the middle on many issues to get back to an even playing-field with the Democratic plurality.

As we've seen even in Canada, however, right-wing parties have difficulty jettisoning the crazies who tend to be their most fervent supporters, and who hold large grassroots organizational and fundraising power.

Many Republicans and undecideds are going to want the GOP to swerve to the middle if they get destroyed in this election. But if it's a struggle even for Canadian conservatives to drop the culture-war dinosaurs, it's going to be a very long road for GOP strategists who favour moving toward a middle ground.

Then again, the GOP doesn't play by any rules, so who knows what they'll come up with. Trump wins again, and I have no idea what we get.

[JR449]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2heDhkIIIY

So the whole Russia Gate thing was a farce??

[bizkitgto]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

As ever, the Republicans will need to move to the middle on many issues to get back to an even playing-field with the Democratic plurality.

As we've seen even in Canada, however, right-wing parties have difficulty jettisoning the crazies who tend to be their most fervent supporters, and who hold large grassroots organizational and fundraising power.

Many Republicans and undecideds are going to want the GOP to swerve to the middle if they get destroyed in this election. But if it's a struggle even for Canadian conservatives to drop the culture-war dinosaurs, it's going to be a very long road for GOP strategists who favour moving toward a middle ground.

Then again, the GOP doesn't play by any rules, so who knows what they'll come up with. Trump wins again, and I have no idea what we get.

Culture ALWAYS drifts towards the left... things are going to get weird as we enter the post-industrial age.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by JR449

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2heDhkIIIY

So the whole Russia Gate thing was a farce??

Do you only link videos that have random WORDS capitalized for no REASON?

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Completely normal behavior, supporting a completely normal president, who has completely normally condoned this

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1525301.html

Glad to hear the police stepped in and cleared access to the area at least. I'm sure we'll be seeing a lot more of this crap today and tomorrow.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

So, I just did that with the following simple method. I took the RealClearPolitics polling average for each state, and assumed that it was off by 2% in Biden's favour.

This isn't aimed at you Corsi, but I really hate this narrative. Most pollsters are very careful to model their data so as to be respectful of the populations they are to represent. We are going on the basis that all pollsters are wrong, and the ones who admittedly over sample Republican voters, are the ones who are accurate in their assessment, just because of 2016. We seem to miss that these pollsters killed it in 2018 and have modified their models to account for the "shy voter," which is another misnomer. I think there are more shy voters who will go for Biden because they don't want to deal with the BS they would put up with from their Trumpster friends when they find out they voted against the dear leader. So I think this giving a benefit to Trump because of the 2016 is just doubling down on the model modification already done, and is skewing the projection.

There is just too much data to support the bias within the early vote, and the fact that it is up to 95,365,308 votes already cast, the potential for the red crush of election day voting is going to be marginalized and all but eliminated. Even if the election day vote breaks 70/30 in favor of trump, there aren't enough votes in the system to save him, if the data scientists are right in their projections. Biden will already have established a lead that is so insurmountable that Trump would have to see a record turnout of 160 million people to close the gap, believing that the election day vote breaks 70/30 Trump. With that in mind, I think this has potential to be a blowout. 353, 185 with a couple really big surprises in the mix.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I'm mentally preparing for 4 more years of chaos.

Me too. I just don't trust anything involving the electoral college. Especially Florida, which will probably f*** everything up like it always does. If the results are too close to call on election night...hoo boy, it's gonna get really ugly down there.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by JR449

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2heDhkIIIY

So the whole Russia Gate thing was a farce??

No, we know full well that the Trump organization has been mostly funded by Russian money for a decade now, you think of any reason Russia would pump money into a twat like Trump other than disruptive political influence?