Those people that are happy with or advocating a 6 year deal must think that Johnny will sign another long term contract in Calgary. I am very sceptical that he won't go east t that time.
That is far into the future to be worrying now. There are too many variables to even start to consider this a concern. I think the most important factor is if the team is a perennial contender. If the team either misses the playoffs or is out early in each of those 6 years there maybe be some desire to leave. But if the team makes some deep playoff runs and (knock on wood) win a cup (or two) in that time frame I can see him (and Mony) sticking around. Similar to Stamkos this summer; took a pay cut to stay with a strong team than take big dollars to play for his hometown/loser team. Plus there's a good chance he plants some roots here and wouldn't want to uproot his family. Anyways, too far into the future to worry about that now. Doesn't the 22/23 season sound quite far away?
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Someone explain to me why a 6 year deal benefits the team more than a 8 year contract
Well hypothetically the team would be paying him less at 6 vs 8 years, but still catching the bulk of his prime years. During that time the team's hypothetical championship window is open. Paying him less would allow the team be better in the shorter term to try and win a championship.
When we did the vote I think I voted around 7.1 or 7.25. I'd now revise my estimate down, based on the fact that this coming year, he'll be worth much less if for no other reason he does not have any rights whatsoever. This was a collective agreement bargained and Johnny's value will take into account his options, which in this case are really not any.
I don't think Treliving is playing that card with brutal effect, but I do expect there is some give and take that is going to have to happen and the no rights year(s) vs the RFA years and the UFA years are going to be valued quite differently, and rightfully so, however the contract ultimately becomes structured.
Bear in mind that is 19.8 million for those 2 extra years. He might be worth it, but he might not. It likely isn't a great deal.
Why would he be unlikely to be worth 9.9M as a UFA in 7 years? That's ~8.05M in today's dollars assuming 3% annual inflation. Pretty sure he'd be commanding at least that if he was a UFA today.
Why would he be unlikely to be worth 9.9M as a UFA in 7 years? That's ~8.05M in today's dollars assuming 3% annual inflation. Pretty sure he'd be commanding at least that if he was a UFA today.
Damnit. Chug your beer guys.
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Why would he be unlikely to be worth 9.9M as a UFA in 7 years? That's ~8.05M in today's dollars assuming 3% annual inflation. Pretty sure he'd be commanding at least that if he was a UFA today.
3% annual inflation?
lol, why so random? The current national inflation rate has hovered around 1% for years -- I have no idea where you got 3% from.
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Any speculation about anything seven years from now is futile. Can't even begin to speculate about the player or the market that far out from now.
I should've put the word "likely" in there, but you make a correct point here. Even so, I don't see Johnny as a likely $10 million man, now or in the future -- but things can definitely change
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Seriously dude, $9.9 is too high for John Gaudreau right now, and it will be in seven years. Maybe... on the open market, but that's a huge maybe.
9.9 would not be a lot for a point per game winger in 7 years. The cap will likely be upwards of 90M by then . . . I used 3% because it's fairly conservative over such a long period of time.
If 2014-2015 UFA Patrick Kane is worth 10.5 then UFA Johnny Gaudreau is easily worth 8.
I have no idea any longer how high Gaudreau's cap hit will be on 7 and 8 year deals. Anything beyond 6.4(?) is precedent setting already. 8 years at 6.7 or 8 years at 7.5 both would not surprise me any longer. My wild guess is 7x7 - nice and easy math.
