01-08-2026, 01:47 PM
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#19601
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by united
The Blackhawks and Kraken are both a perfect 4-0 in 2026 while the Flames have yet to earn one point. And just like that, a massive swing. As the season progresses and the range of outcomes reduces, larger swings will become regular and more prevalent. Hilariously, the projected threshold to qualify for the playoffs is down to 84 points in the West (likely to moderately increase as games tighten down the stretch)
Median finish: 32nd place with 74 points, 1 point behind the Canucks and 2 behind the Blackhawks. The Kraken and Blues are also projected to finish with fewer than 80 points.
Pick first: 13% of simulated seasons
Pick top five: 70% of simulated seasons
Pick top ten: 93% of simulated seasons
Make playoffs: 4% of simulated seasons (84 points to get in)
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If the picks stay in the current order (Jets, Canucks, Flames) it will be interesting to see who does what. Arguably all three teams needs a C but would either of these teams be able to ignore McKenna and Stenberg to pick Lawrence?
Seeing the Kraken at the bottom again really makes you wonder what it is going to take for them to stop being bad. They already have a collection of talented players but for some reason they cannot translate it into winning.
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01-08-2026, 01:54 PM
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#19602
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Flames Town
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolven
If the picks stay in the current order (Jets, Canucks, Flames) it will be interesting to see who does what. Arguably all three teams needs a C but would either of these teams be able to ignore McKenna and Stenberg to pick Lawrence?
Seeing the Kraken at the bottom again really makes you wonder what it is going to take for them to stop being bad. They already have a collection of talented players but for some reason they cannot translate it into winning.
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I think Seattle has been unlucky with the draft.
Year #1 - Beniers has not been a 2nd overall caliber player. On pace for 52 points this year, which is now his 4th full year in the league.
Year #2 - Wright has also not worked out amazing for a 4th overall player. On pace for 30 points in his 2nd year.
Year#3 - Sale was drafted at 20 and nothing really special.
Catton and O'Brien remain to be seen.. but with their horrible expansion drafting and some bad luck in the drafts, I can see why they have struggled so much. Not to mention, it is a lot easier for Vegas as an expansion team to attract free agents compared to Seattle.
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01-08-2026, 01:58 PM
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#19603
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolven
If the picks stay in the current order (Jets, Canucks, Flames) it will be interesting to see who does what. Arguably all three teams needs a C but would either of these teams be able to ignore McKenna and Stenberg to pick Lawrence?
Seeing the Kraken at the bottom again really makes you wonder what it is going to take for them to stop being bad. They already have a collection of talented players but for some reason they cannot translate it into winning.
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Jets are a much better team than the Flames, and a much better team than their record to date. Think of them as the Flames with a more established goaltender and much more talent up front. They won't stay in the basement forever. The only way they pick top 3 will be if they win the draft lottery.
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01-08-2026, 02:05 PM
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#19604
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MacDaddy77
Because these players put them immediately into a top conference team this year, not 3 years down to road. A trade like this fits the window for both teams.
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I don't think anyone would do it after the tournament Hage just had. He looks like a player that can step on to an NHL team right now and meaningfully contribute.
If you want him, I'd think the package starts around Zayne.
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01-08-2026, 02:07 PM
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#19605
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Farm Team Player
Join Date: Mar 2024
Location: Kamloops, BC
Exp: 
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Seattle is in third in the division atm.
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01-08-2026, 02:08 PM
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#19606
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macindoc
Jets are a much better team than the Flames, and a much better team than their record to date. Think of them as the Flames with a more established goaltender and much more talent up front. They won't stay in the basement forever. The only way they pick top 3 will be if they win the draft lottery.
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people have been saying that about the Jets for two months now
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GFG
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01-08-2026, 02:09 PM
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#19607
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bert
Seattle is in third in the division atm. ����
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not sure anyone in the division deserves to be a playoff team even
__________________
GFG
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The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to dino7c For This Useful Post:
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01-08-2026, 02:16 PM
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#19608
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by keenan87
I think Seattle has been unlucky with the draft.
Year #1 - Beniers has not been a 2nd overall caliber player. On pace for 52 points this year, which is now his 4th full year in the league.
Year #2 - Wright has also not worked out amazing for a 4th overall player. On pace for 30 points in his 2nd year.
Year#3 - Sale was drafted at 20 and nothing really special.
Catton and O'Brien remain to be seen.. but with their horrible expansion drafting and some bad luck in the drafts, I can see why they have struggled so much. Not to mention, it is a lot easier for Vegas as an expansion team to attract free agents compared to Seattle.
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Bad luck or bad drafting?
- The main question about Beniers was how much offense he really had. They picked him at #2 even with that uncertainty. He wasn't a slam dunk #2 pick. McTavish, L. Hughes went immediately after. Guenther a llittle later.
- Shane Wright was dropping heading into that draft. They picked him at #4 looking past some of the questions. Cutter Gauthier went next pick.
- Sale's downsides were well known at the draft. Inconsistent effort and perimeter play. But there are no sure things at 20, so I don't fault them on this one at all.
- Jake O'Brien. Same thing - lots of questions about if his offense will translate. Fair pick at #8 but we'll see.
My point is, I don't think it's bad luck entirely. I don't think they are a well drafting team.
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The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to Jiri Hrdina For This Useful Post:
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01-08-2026, 02:30 PM
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#19609
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina
Bad luck or bad drafting?
- The main question about Beniers was how much offense he really had. They picked him at #2 even with that uncertainty. He wasn't a slam dunk #2 pick. McTavish, L. Hughes went immediately after. Guenther a llittle later.
- Shane Wright was dropping heading into that draft. They picked him at #4 looking past some of the questions. Cutter Gauthier went next pick.
- Sale's downsides were well known at the draft. Inconsistent effort and perimeter play. But there are no sure things at 20, so I don't fault them on this one at all.
- Jake O'Brien. Same thing - lots of questions about if his offense will translate. Fair pick at #8 but we'll see.
My point is, I don't think it's bad luck entirely. I don't think they are a well drafting team.
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is McTavish any better then Beniers?
McTavish is on a much more dynamic team overall
Gauthier forced his way out of Philly and in a very strange fashion. Whose to say how the player interviews went like with Seattle. Also is Gauthier on pace for 40g if he's on this Seattle team?
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01-08-2026, 02:34 PM
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#19610
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: CGY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
not sure anyone in the division deserves to be a playoff team even
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Yet the Pacific owns 5 of the playoff spots and the team in 6th in the division is 9th in the conference.
It is crazy that the Central not only has the 3 best teams in the west but the 3 best teams in the league.
Such a bizarre season to date.
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The Following User Says Thank You to Vinny01 For This Useful Post:
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01-08-2026, 02:48 PM
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#19613
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolven
If the picks stay in the current order (Jets, Canucks, Flames) it will be interesting to see who does what. Arguably all three teams needs a C but would either of these teams be able to ignore McKenna and Stenberg to pick Lawrence?
Seeing the Kraken at the bottom again really makes you wonder what it is going to take for them to stop being bad. They already have a collection of talented players but for some reason they cannot translate it into winning.
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Kraken are currently drafting 20th.
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01-08-2026, 02:50 PM
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#19614
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinny01
Yet the Pacific owns 5 of the playoff spots and the team in 6th in the division is 9th in the conference.
It is crazy that the Central not only has the 3 best teams in the west but the 3 best teams in the league.
Such a bizarre season to date.
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Meanwhile the entire Eastern Conference is over .500. Which to me should lead to more buyers than sellers. No better time to sell this month.
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The Following User Says Thank You to ForeverFlameFan For This Useful Post:
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01-08-2026, 02:51 PM
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#19615
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by united
The Blackhawks and Kraken are both a perfect 4-0 in 2026 while the Flames have yet to earn one point. And just like that, a massive swing. As the season progresses and the range of outcomes reduces, larger swings will become regular and more prevalent. Hilariously, the projected threshold to qualify for the playoffs is down to 84 points in the West (likely to moderately increase as games tighten down the stretch)
Median finish: 32nd place with 74 points, 1 point behind the Canucks and 2 behind the Blackhawks. The Kraken and Blues are also projected to finish with fewer than 80 points.
Pick first: 13% of simulated seasons
Pick top five: 70% of simulated seasons
Pick top ten: 93% of simulated seasons
Make playoffs: 4% of simulated seasons (84 points to get in)
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84?
I have the 8th place team on win % as San Jose with a .547 record, which is 90 points.
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01-08-2026, 02:56 PM
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#19616
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Cobra
Kraken are currently drafting 20th.
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Flames beat them fairly badly earlier and they went on a hot streak. Same thing happened to Buffalo. Philly might be doing the same (though it's only been 2 games).
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01-08-2026, 03:08 PM
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#19617
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bert
Seattle is in third in the division atm. ����
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Ya, 8-1-1 for their L10 definitely helped.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Cobra
Kraken are currently drafting 20th.
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Sure, what about the Jets and Canucks? That was where my question mark was.
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01-08-2026, 03:35 PM
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#19618
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Alberta
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I'd still like to take a flier on Wright if they would trade him...
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01-08-2026, 03:42 PM
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#19619
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Scoring Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina
Bad luck or bad drafting?
- The main question about Beniers was how much offense he really had. They picked him at #2 even with that uncertainty. He wasn't a slam dunk #2 pick. McTavish, L. Hughes went immediately after. Guenther a llittle later.
- Shane Wright was dropping heading into that draft. They picked him at #4 looking past some of the questions. Cutter Gauthier went next pick.
- Sale's downsides were well known at the draft. Inconsistent effort and perimeter play. But there are no sure things at 20, so I don't fault them on this one at all.
- Jake O'Brien. Same thing - lots of questions about if his offense will translate. Fair pick at #8 but we'll see.
My point is, I don't think it's bad luck entirely. I don't think they are a well drafting team.
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It's probably too early to determine if they're good or not at drafting. That should be judged on depth picks as well as first rounders, and they don't really have enough history to know how their later picks will turn out (although their first five picks in 2021 have played in the NHL).
But it does look like they force picking the centre with their top 10 picks, rather than BPA. They certainly have avoided defenders in the first round, even if the defender appears to be BPA, which is a problematic strategy.
Might be another reaffirmation that good drafting is getting lots of picks and BPA no matter what -- and then hope BPA fills your needs over time.
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01-08-2026, 03:46 PM
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#19620
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina
Bad luck or bad drafting?
- The main question about Beniers was how much offense he really had. They picked him at #2 even with that uncertainty. He wasn't a slam dunk #2 pick. McTavish, L. Hughes went immediately after. Guenther a llittle later.
- Shane Wright was dropping heading into that draft. They picked him at #4 looking past some of the questions. Cutter Gauthier went next pick.
- Sale's downsides were well known at the draft. Inconsistent effort and perimeter play. But there are no sure things at 20, so I don't fault them on this one at all.
- Jake O'Brien. Same thing - lots of questions about if his offense will translate. Fair pick at #8 but we'll see.
My point is, I don't think it's bad luck entirely. I don't think they are a well drafting team.
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A bit of both: 2021 wasn't a great draft year. And they took the consensus 2OA IIRC. Everyone from 1-22 missed Wyatt Johnston.
TBF, 2OA Beniers is 2nd in points from that class, behind only Wyatt J. 4OA Wright is 5th in points from his class (but only because Hutson came out of nowhere). So really Cutter Gauthier is the only miss there.
What they didn't do was turn castoff expansion draft players into a lot lof draft picks and fire as many bullets as they could.
Last edited by GioforPM; 01-08-2026 at 03:51 PM.
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