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Old 01-08-2026, 01:47 PM   #19601
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Originally Posted by united View Post
The Blackhawks and Kraken are both a perfect 4-0 in 2026 while the Flames have yet to earn one point. And just like that, a massive swing. As the season progresses and the range of outcomes reduces, larger swings will become regular and more prevalent. Hilariously, the projected threshold to qualify for the playoffs is down to 84 points in the West (likely to moderately increase as games tighten down the stretch)

Median finish: 32nd place with 74 points, 1 point behind the Canucks and 2 behind the Blackhawks. The Kraken and Blues are also projected to finish with fewer than 80 points.

Pick first: 13% of simulated seasons
Pick top five: 70% of simulated seasons
Pick top ten: 93% of simulated seasons
Make playoffs: 4% of simulated seasons (84 points to get in)
If the picks stay in the current order (Jets, Canucks, Flames) it will be interesting to see who does what. Arguably all three teams needs a C but would either of these teams be able to ignore McKenna and Stenberg to pick Lawrence?

Seeing the Kraken at the bottom again really makes you wonder what it is going to take for them to stop being bad. They already have a collection of talented players but for some reason they cannot translate it into winning.
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Old 01-08-2026, 01:54 PM   #19602
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If the picks stay in the current order (Jets, Canucks, Flames) it will be interesting to see who does what. Arguably all three teams needs a C but would either of these teams be able to ignore McKenna and Stenberg to pick Lawrence?

Seeing the Kraken at the bottom again really makes you wonder what it is going to take for them to stop being bad. They already have a collection of talented players but for some reason they cannot translate it into winning.
I think Seattle has been unlucky with the draft.

Year #1 - Beniers has not been a 2nd overall caliber player. On pace for 52 points this year, which is now his 4th full year in the league.

Year #2 - Wright has also not worked out amazing for a 4th overall player. On pace for 30 points in his 2nd year.

Year#3 - Sale was drafted at 20 and nothing really special.

Catton and O'Brien remain to be seen.. but with their horrible expansion drafting and some bad luck in the drafts, I can see why they have struggled so much. Not to mention, it is a lot easier for Vegas as an expansion team to attract free agents compared to Seattle.
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Old 01-08-2026, 01:58 PM   #19603
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If the picks stay in the current order (Jets, Canucks, Flames) it will be interesting to see who does what. Arguably all three teams needs a C but would either of these teams be able to ignore McKenna and Stenberg to pick Lawrence?

Seeing the Kraken at the bottom again really makes you wonder what it is going to take for them to stop being bad. They already have a collection of talented players but for some reason they cannot translate it into winning.
Jets are a much better team than the Flames, and a much better team than their record to date. Think of them as the Flames with a more established goaltender and much more talent up front. They won't stay in the basement forever. The only way they pick top 3 will be if they win the draft lottery.
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:05 PM   #19604
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Because these players put them immediately into a top conference team this year, not 3 years down to road. A trade like this fits the window for both teams.
I don't think anyone would do it after the tournament Hage just had. He looks like a player that can step on to an NHL team right now and meaningfully contribute.

If you want him, I'd think the package starts around Zayne.
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:07 PM   #19605
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Seattle is in third in the division atm. ����
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:08 PM   #19606
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Jets are a much better team than the Flames, and a much better team than their record to date. Think of them as the Flames with a more established goaltender and much more talent up front. They won't stay in the basement forever. The only way they pick top 3 will be if they win the draft lottery.
people have been saying that about the Jets for two months now
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:09 PM   #19607
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Seattle is in third in the division atm. ����
not sure anyone in the division deserves to be a playoff team even
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:16 PM   #19608
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I think Seattle has been unlucky with the draft.

Year #1 - Beniers has not been a 2nd overall caliber player. On pace for 52 points this year, which is now his 4th full year in the league.

Year #2 - Wright has also not worked out amazing for a 4th overall player. On pace for 30 points in his 2nd year.

Year#3 - Sale was drafted at 20 and nothing really special.

Catton and O'Brien remain to be seen.. but with their horrible expansion drafting and some bad luck in the drafts, I can see why they have struggled so much. Not to mention, it is a lot easier for Vegas as an expansion team to attract free agents compared to Seattle.
Bad luck or bad drafting?
- The main question about Beniers was how much offense he really had. They picked him at #2 even with that uncertainty. He wasn't a slam dunk #2 pick. McTavish, L. Hughes went immediately after. Guenther a llittle later.
- Shane Wright was dropping heading into that draft. They picked him at #4 looking past some of the questions. Cutter Gauthier went next pick.
- Sale's downsides were well known at the draft. Inconsistent effort and perimeter play. But there are no sure things at 20, so I don't fault them on this one at all.
- Jake O'Brien. Same thing - lots of questions about if his offense will translate. Fair pick at #8 but we'll see.

My point is, I don't think it's bad luck entirely. I don't think they are a well drafting team.
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:30 PM   #19609
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Bad luck or bad drafting?
- The main question about Beniers was how much offense he really had. They picked him at #2 even with that uncertainty. He wasn't a slam dunk #2 pick. McTavish, L. Hughes went immediately after. Guenther a llittle later.
- Shane Wright was dropping heading into that draft. They picked him at #4 looking past some of the questions. Cutter Gauthier went next pick.
- Sale's downsides were well known at the draft. Inconsistent effort and perimeter play. But there are no sure things at 20, so I don't fault them on this one at all.
- Jake O'Brien. Same thing - lots of questions about if his offense will translate. Fair pick at #8 but we'll see.

My point is, I don't think it's bad luck entirely. I don't think they are a well drafting team.

is McTavish any better then Beniers?
McTavish is on a much more dynamic team overall

Gauthier forced his way out of Philly and in a very strange fashion. Whose to say how the player interviews went like with Seattle. Also is Gauthier on pace for 40g if he's on this Seattle team?
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:34 PM   #19610
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not sure anyone in the division deserves to be a playoff team even
Yet the Pacific owns 5 of the playoff spots and the team in 6th in the division is 9th in the conference.

It is crazy that the Central not only has the 3 best teams in the west but the 3 best teams in the league.

Such a bizarre season to date.
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:41 PM   #19611
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While I think Kadri is a good pro and likely a good voice in the dressing room for some of the young players (Parekh mentioned he was a fan of Kadri growing up)… I still hope he gets traded this season along with Coleman and Andersson. I think there will be enough veteran leadership left on the team even after those players are gone.

I am not sure Kadri’s playstyle is best for developing young players - which is very important for the next couple seasons. You can see how Kadri directs his linemates and the way he plays… his playstyle is pretty much “give me the puck as soon as possible and you go to the net”. While this can work to help the team win games when he is playing like a line-driving center, I don’t think playing on a line with Kadri will be the best way for skilled young players to translate their abilities at the NHL level.

For example, say the flames draft McKenna or Stenberg this year and they make the opening roster next season… I don’t think those players would do very well on a line with Kadri if he’s rarely passing them the puck or rarely encouraging them to carry the puck. I know the default option will be to put them with Backlund because he does so well with young players but I would like to see young players be able to be integrated on pretty much every line. The same issue could happen with Gridin if he is on the roster next year.

I hope a team steps up and pays Conroy’s asking price for Kadri. I’m a fan of his compete and that he has wanted to stay in Calgary but I think the value he has in trade is higher now than it will be in a year and I’m not sure his play style fits with developing young players on his line.
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:44 PM   #19612
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Beniers is pretty decent I think, he's a great piece for them to build around, I feel like he's going to be very similar statistically and in profile to Hischier and he's scored more points than anybody in that draft class except Johnston. But it is tough to see him being an 80 pt a year guy which is obviously what you're hoping for that high up the draft board, he seems more like a 2C that will end up around 55-65 pts a year.

I just think he's exposed in Seattle, he should really be a 2C at this stage in his career behind a veteran taking the super tough matchups not matched up against McDavid, Barkov, MacKinnon etc with a washout like Kakko on his wing. He's pretty regularly their ice time leader and getting a lot of tough matchups though they seem like they've been trying to use Stephenson a bit to mitigate it this year.

At least they didn't pick Power or Kent Johnson though those two really seem to be falling off a cliff this year production wise. And nobody will top the Sens in that draft for a terrible pick with Boucher, wasting 10th overall has to hurt badly. Wasn't an amazing 1st round in retrospect
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:48 PM   #19613
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If the picks stay in the current order (Jets, Canucks, Flames) it will be interesting to see who does what. Arguably all three teams needs a C but would either of these teams be able to ignore McKenna and Stenberg to pick Lawrence?

Seeing the Kraken at the bottom again really makes you wonder what it is going to take for them to stop being bad. They already have a collection of talented players but for some reason they cannot translate it into winning.
Kraken are currently drafting 20th.
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:50 PM   #19614
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Yet the Pacific owns 5 of the playoff spots and the team in 6th in the division is 9th in the conference.

It is crazy that the Central not only has the 3 best teams in the west but the 3 best teams in the league.

Such a bizarre season to date.
Meanwhile the entire Eastern Conference is over .500. Which to me should lead to more buyers than sellers. No better time to sell this month.
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:51 PM   #19615
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Originally Posted by united View Post
The Blackhawks and Kraken are both a perfect 4-0 in 2026 while the Flames have yet to earn one point. And just like that, a massive swing. As the season progresses and the range of outcomes reduces, larger swings will become regular and more prevalent. Hilariously, the projected threshold to qualify for the playoffs is down to 84 points in the West (likely to moderately increase as games tighten down the stretch)

Median finish: 32nd place with 74 points, 1 point behind the Canucks and 2 behind the Blackhawks. The Kraken and Blues are also projected to finish with fewer than 80 points.

Pick first: 13% of simulated seasons
Pick top five: 70% of simulated seasons
Pick top ten: 93% of simulated seasons
Make playoffs: 4% of simulated seasons (84 points to get in)
84?

I have the 8th place team on win % as San Jose with a .547 record, which is 90 points.
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Old 01-08-2026, 02:56 PM   #19616
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Kraken are currently drafting 20th.
Flames beat them fairly badly earlier and they went on a hot streak. Same thing happened to Buffalo. Philly might be doing the same (though it's only been 2 games).
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Old 01-08-2026, 03:08 PM   #19617
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Seattle is in third in the division atm. ����
Ya, 8-1-1 for their L10 definitely helped.

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Kraken are currently drafting 20th.
Sure, what about the Jets and Canucks? That was where my question mark was.
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Old 01-08-2026, 03:35 PM   #19618
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I'd still like to take a flier on Wright if they would trade him...
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Old 01-08-2026, 03:42 PM   #19619
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Bad luck or bad drafting?
- The main question about Beniers was how much offense he really had. They picked him at #2 even with that uncertainty. He wasn't a slam dunk #2 pick. McTavish, L. Hughes went immediately after. Guenther a llittle later.
- Shane Wright was dropping heading into that draft. They picked him at #4 looking past some of the questions. Cutter Gauthier went next pick.
- Sale's downsides were well known at the draft. Inconsistent effort and perimeter play. But there are no sure things at 20, so I don't fault them on this one at all.
- Jake O'Brien. Same thing - lots of questions about if his offense will translate. Fair pick at #8 but we'll see.

My point is, I don't think it's bad luck entirely. I don't think they are a well drafting team.
It's probably too early to determine if they're good or not at drafting. That should be judged on depth picks as well as first rounders, and they don't really have enough history to know how their later picks will turn out (although their first five picks in 2021 have played in the NHL).

But it does look like they force picking the centre with their top 10 picks, rather than BPA. They certainly have avoided defenders in the first round, even if the defender appears to be BPA, which is a problematic strategy.

Might be another reaffirmation that good drafting is getting lots of picks and BPA no matter what -- and then hope BPA fills your needs over time.
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Old 01-08-2026, 03:46 PM   #19620
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Bad luck or bad drafting?
- The main question about Beniers was how much offense he really had. They picked him at #2 even with that uncertainty. He wasn't a slam dunk #2 pick. McTavish, L. Hughes went immediately after. Guenther a llittle later.
- Shane Wright was dropping heading into that draft. They picked him at #4 looking past some of the questions. Cutter Gauthier went next pick.
- Sale's downsides were well known at the draft. Inconsistent effort and perimeter play. But there are no sure things at 20, so I don't fault them on this one at all.
- Jake O'Brien. Same thing - lots of questions about if his offense will translate. Fair pick at #8 but we'll see.

My point is, I don't think it's bad luck entirely. I don't think they are a well drafting team.
A bit of both: 2021 wasn't a great draft year. And they took the consensus 2OA IIRC. Everyone from 1-22 missed Wyatt Johnston.

TBF, 2OA Beniers is 2nd in points from that class, behind only Wyatt J. 4OA Wright is 5th in points from his class (but only because Hutson came out of nowhere). So really Cutter Gauthier is the only miss there.

What they didn't do was turn castoff expansion draft players into a lot lof draft picks and fire as many bullets as they could.

Last edited by GioforPM; 01-08-2026 at 03:51 PM.
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