Should Calgary Bid on the 2026 Olympics

[Red]

Originally Posted by chemgear

What are you talking about, the link is literally a full page explanation listing out the assumptions and showing the actual calculations. Did you even look at it?

And they published this analysis two weeks ago. Meanwhile, I haven't seen anything from the Bidco at all about the cost.

Full page of assumptions? Good grief.



Yes, I looked and indeed I see is a bunch of assumptions on how much over budget this will go. With nothing to back it up, unless "average worldwide is this and that" is a good formula. Irrelevant to me.



Sorry, I can respect your opposition to the Olympics, but I can't give that blog post any credibility. It is as questionable as anything Trump tweets.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Red

If it is forever then I am a "no" vote too. But I don't believe that it is.


Anytime there is a big and expensive proposal we have a large debate and lot's of "no" people trying to show how it is the end of the world. Yet, it never is.


When was the last time that an event like this "ruined" a city? And I don't mean that it gave the opposition party things to whine about. When did it actually hurt a city and their citizens long term?


What were the talking points of the opposition to the Vancouver games?

Greece 2004?

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/ga...on-in-pictures

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Hey, I'm going to take my fallacy of relative privation and buy that new 200 inch OLED TV.

"Do I want this? Is that who I am? Why yes, yes indeed."



#### it, I'm in.

Just think of how valuable your AirBnb will be with a 200" OLED TV.

[FireGilbert]

The Sydney Olympics lost $2 Billion and had a negligible impact on the economy and tourism.

There were some infrastructure improvements however many of the sports facilities ongoing maintenance costs went over budget and the 20 year old Olympic stadium is now considered obsolete and is being torn down and replaced for $1 Billion. They did get a train line to the airport out of it though.

While the Olympics definitely did not "ruin" Sydney the money would have been better spent building hospitals, schools and transportation infrastructure and I believe this city would be more livable for all citizens today if the Olympics never went ahead.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Slava

Meh, I would guarantee them the $200m in 2026. Just the premium would be $158m paid today and I’ll guarantee it. I can’t see any insurer foolish enough to write that without ensuring that the premium makes sense and they can make some money. I would be incredibly interested in seeing the wording as well; surely any insurer is going to make that wording iron-clad. It’s not going to be “well we thought we’d stay on budget but didn’t, so you owe us $200m”. Although if they give that $158m today, I can even agree to that working for them!

Cost over-run insurance is quite common. But its not easy to get. And its certainly not cheap.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Cost over-run insurance is quite common. But its not easy to get. And its certainly not cheap.

It's weird because I have seen quite a few insurance professionals say they haven't heard of this type of policy (maybe regarding this kind of project?). I realize that you can buy basically any type of insurance, but the premium is commensurate with the risk...so in this case we basically know they're going to run over and it had to be priced accordingly. Maybe the $158m is a little facetious, but I can't see $20m being any more reasonable?

[Frequitude]

nm

[looooob]

Originally Posted by getbak

You don't have to imagine: https://www.nhl.com/flames/schedule/1988-02-01/MT

A full 31 days between home games for the Flames in 1988. On the plus side, they also won the President's Trophy that year.

ok totally unrelated to the Olympics but it is CP after all




that's an interesting calendar link


the 87-88 Flames as you point out were presidents trophy champions, nearly +100 in goal differential (no team without Bobby Orr or Wayne Gretzky on it had ever scored as many goals) yet look at the month of February alone- demolished 3 times by WPG, NYI and DET by a tune of 23-4!


giving up 53 goals that month also goes along way to explaining the rationale for the trade giving up some guy for Ramage and Walmsley in early March, as well as a subsequent trade with ST L in the offseason jettisoning Bullard in favor of Gilmour and Hunter, rebuilding the teams defensive play

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by FireGilbert

The Sydney Olympics lost $2 Billion and had a negligible impact on the economy and tourism.

This.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Slava

It's weird because I have seen quite a few insurance professionals say they haven't heard of this type of policy (maybe regarding this kind of project?). I realize that you can buy basically any type of insurance, but the premium is commensurate with the risk...so in this case we basically know they're going to run over and it had to be priced accordingly. Maybe the $158m is a little facetious, but I can't see $20m being any more reasonable?

Yah I mean anyone who is going to cover overruns on an Olympic bid will certainly be looking at previous games and pricing accordingly.

[Classic_Sniper]

If the city ends up getting more for what we spend, we should definitely do it, even if it doesn't end up as the reported 10 X return. If it ends up as a 5 to 1 or 4 to 1, do it. It's not everyday the government hands out $2 billion + to the city of Calgary. The field house, the Victoria Park revitalization, affordable housing, green line, these are all things the city is going to eventually have to pay for by ourselves anyway, so to get some help would be gravy.

[Envitro]

I'm of the same opinion, if our spend is $500m and we get $2 billion in investment I think that's pretty good. It's money we wouldn't have otherwise received for infrastructure upgrades and major projects, most likely.

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by Envitro

I'm of the same opinion, if our spend is $500m and we get $2 billion in investment I think that's pretty good. It's money we wouldn't have otherwise received for infrastructure upgrades and major projects, most likely.

What do you think the odds of that happening are?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

If the city ends up getting more for what we spend, we should definitely do it, even if it doesn't end up as the reported 10 X return. If it ends up as a 5 to 1 or 4 to 1, do it. It's not everyday the government hands out $2 billion + to the city of Calgary. The field house, the Victoria Park revitalization, affordable housing, green line, these are all things the city is going to eventually have to pay for by ourselves anyway, so to get some help would be gravy.

Victoria park is coming from the CMHC master plan and is only included in the Olympic bid to get the matching federal funds. The Olympics have no bearing on that piece of infrastructure and the money the city is paying for the Olympics does not include that number(I think). 0 dollars of city or provincial or federal funds have been committed for the GreenLine as part of the Olympics. 1000 units of Affordable housing was cut from the bid. There is still 800 units in the bid.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Cost over-run insurance is quite common. But its not easy to get. And its certainly not cheap.

i work in architecture and have never seen this kind of insurance...

if you have any info, i'd appreciate it as it might be useful to clients/corporations i work with

[Envitro]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

i work in architecture and have never seen this kind of insurance...

if you have any info, i'd appreciate it as it might be useful to clients/corporations i work with

Same here, not in construction/architecture, but I'm a Project Manager and the only cost overrun insurance that I know of is doing your job well so you don't get fired. That, and a healthy contingency to cover the known and unknown unknowns.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by jeffporfirio

Me and the wife are going to go vote NO on the advance polling dates, but I believe YES will win.
Especially since they are placing polling sites in all the retirement homes/communities. Old folks will mostly vote YES IMO.

Thats because they wont be alive to suffer the consequences!

[chemgear]

https://calgarysun.com/news/local-ne...e-883f376e9daf

A B.C. government minister says she and the province have yet to be contacted by Calgary’s Olympic bid corporation over the use of ski jumping facilities — an assertion Calgary 2026 disputes.

“So far, we have not been involved in the drafting of the Calgary 2026 bid and, to date, have not been formally approached by the bid organizers,” Lisa Beare, B.C. minister of tourism, said in a statement.

Coun. Jyoti Gondek said she was surprised to hear of the lack of conversation with B.C.

You would think a location of a major event would be considered by now,” she said.

Coun. Jeromy Farkas said given this lack of communication, he wonders what else has been missed in the Olympic bid.

“It’s obviously a significant oversight,” he said.

“It’s unacceptable that they are being brought into the conversation at this late stage, and what if they say no? We need all parties on board. In my mind, it’s part of a larger conversation on a lack of engagement of key parties, and I cannot believe we are going to a plebiscite without having nailed down participation.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by chemgear

https://calgarysun.com/news/local-ne...e-883f376e9daf

I read that this morning and I have to say, it has me thinking that the whole Whistler part of the proposal is a 'Bait-and-Switch' to get the funding model to somewhat work prior to the plebiscite and then they can claim that they couldnt use it which is why they had to spend more money.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

Victoria park is coming from the CMHC master plan and is only included in the Olympic bid to get the matching federal funds. The Olympics have no bearing on that piece of infrastructure and the money the city is paying for the Olympics does not include that number(I think). 0 dollars of city or provincial or federal funds have been committed for the GreenLine as part of the Olympics. 1000 units of Affordable housing was cut from the bid. There is still 800 units in the bid.

The student units was cut, not the affordable units.