2019 Blue Jays Season Thread

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I dunno, I think Shatkins would have liked to add some key pieces to accelerate the rebuild a bit, but were stymied by nobody wanting to sign with a team coming off a 95 loss season, based in a different country and competing with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.

I think plan B is now to continue collecting assets, building prospect capital and to keep on building from within.

While accelerating the rebuild would have been outstanding, its not really neccessary IMO because the Jays have grade A prospects all over the daimond except for the outfield.

Another year and the current young MLBers will hopefully grow, the key prospects will be a year closer, they'll add another high end prospect at 5th overall and most importantly the big arms in the system will continue to inch their way towards the majors.

Hopefully next there is enough growth that they start to become a more desirable destination for FAs once again.

Could still be outstanding. The Wil Myers situation is there for the taking, and as many darts that you can throw at the pitching board, the better. San Diego would likely thank you for helping them out, and you would have capitol with them in the future when positions are reversed.

As Jason said, it comes down to cheapness.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Could still be outstanding. The Wil Myers situation is there for the taking, and as many darts that you can throw at the pitching board, the better. San Diego would likely thank you for helping them out, and you would have capitol with them in the future when positions are reversed.

As Jason said, it comes down to cheapness.

Im all for it. Its one way to build up the prospect pool.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Could still be outstanding. The Wil Myers situation is there for the taking, and as many darts that you can throw at the pitching board, the better. San Diego would likely thank you for helping them out, and you would have capitol with them in the future when positions are reversed.

As Jason said, it comes down to cheapness.

I'm not sold on the cheapness aspect. I've outlined before that Rogers has their main business to balance out, and it's all about spending at the right time, and now may not be the right time to go with several large contracts as the team is still developing. But IMO, Rogers isn't the enemy here. If Shapiro were to do his job and sell to the board that the case is they need to overpay for a couple guys to sign here, and he made a compelling case to do so, Rogers would go for it. Something is amiss though. I tend to think there's a reluctance on Shapiro's part because they are doing Rogers Centre major renovations soon enough, and I wonder if that's one of his main priorities while leaving Atkins to handle the team build aspect. Something is amiss though, and I don't think it's cheapness in the classic sense - just a lot going on with Rogers where they need to prioritize where their limited money gets spent.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by fleury

I'm not sold on the cheapness aspect. I've outlined before that Rogers has their main business to balance out, and it's all about spending at the right time, and now may not be the right time to go with several large contracts as the team is still developing. But IMO, Rogers isn't the enemy here. If Shapiro were to do his job and sell to the board that the case is they need to overpay for a couple guys to sign here, and he made a compelling case to do so, Rogers would go for it. Something is amiss though. I tend to think there's a reluctance on Shapiro's part because they are doing Rogers Centre major renovations soon enough, and I wonder if that's one of his main priorities while leaving Atkins to handle the team build aspect. Something is amiss though, and I don't think it's cheapness in the classic sense - just a lot going on with Rogers where they need to prioritize where their limited money gets spent.

Shapiro was brought in by Rogers to cut payroll and build a farm system. They wanted a Cleveland result. Low cost players and success!

The issue is ALL teams now understand the value in cost control, player regressions, etc, so smaller market GM's need to find a new market inefficiency.

Why do you assume Roger's has limited money? The only reason is they cook the books on the value of the Jays broadcasting rights so they can write bigger bonus checks to themselves.

Boras already called them out last year. And yes, that's his job, but he's not wrong

https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/...-jays-tv-money

Here's another older article about it as well

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...article547204/

Everyone knows this is happening. They are the 15th most valuable team in MLB but spent the 24th most on FA's over the decade. And it wasn't because they were shelling out large contracts for homegrown stars.

They should not be given any benefit of the doubt after 20 years of this.

[bluejays]

I'm definitely not a Rogers apologist (being a customer and seeing their monthly bill isn't fun!), but they don't have unlimited coffers. There's a substantial upgrade they need for their telecom infruastracture upgrade, there's the condo real estate they're fully into now, there's the Rogers Centre and surrounding area upgrades that need to be done, and not to mention the team we all love. So there is a lot going on at once and with spending, every company nowadays has to watch what they're investing in and how much. So with that, they have a ton of money, but there's an obligation to shareholders (somewhat wrongly), where they have to manage how they're spending it. It's not always right but that's the reality right now. I'll have to read the article you mentioned - it sounds interesting.

[nik-]

They're probably also getting destroyed on the NHL deal.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Smoak going to the Brewers on a one year deal.

9:38am: Smoak will earn $4MM in 2020 and has a $1MM buyout on a $5.5MM option for the 2021 season, Passan tweets.

9:27am: The two sides are in agreement on a one-year, $5MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. There’s also a club option for the 2021 season, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The deal is pending a physical.

9:09am: The Brewers are closing in on a contract with free agent first baseman Justin Smoak, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Smoak is represented by the Bledsoe Agency.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...tin-smoak.html

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by fleury

I'm definitely not a Rogers apologist (being a customer and seeing their monthly bill isn't fun!), but they don't have unlimited coffers. There's a substantial upgrade they need for their telecom infruastracture upgrade, there's the condo real estate they're fully into now, there's the Rogers Centre and surrounding area upgrades that need to be done, and not to mention the team we all love. So there is a lot going on at once and with spending, every company nowadays has to watch what they're investing in and how much. So with that, they have a ton of money, but there's an obligation to shareholders (somewhat wrongly), where they have to manage how they're spending it. It's not always right but that's the reality right now. I'll have to read the article you mentioned - it sounds interesting.

I have a feeling that the internal plan is to have the funds in place to do the upgrades for the Skydome before renovations take place. If Boras is only half right, and the television contract is worth 75M instead of the 36M Rogers reports, that's an annual windfall of 39M, and having the payroll 100M+ below competitive standard for three years.... the renovations are going to be paid for by the Bluejay revenue by the end of this three years rebuilding window.

Never feel bad for Rogers. The Blue Jays are a cash cow, that they only feed the cows own milk back to itself.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

I have a feeling that the internal plan is to have the funds in place to do the upgrades for the Skydome before renovations take place. If Boras is only half right, and the television contract is worth 75M instead of the 36M Rogers reports, that's an annual windfall of 39M, and having the payroll 100M+ below competitive standard for three years.... the renovations are going to be paid for by the Bluejay revenue by the end of this three years rebuilding window.

Never feel bad for Rogers. The Blue Jays are a cash cow, that they only feed the cows own milk back to itself.

I don't know.

If it was an open bidding war would either TSN or Rogers be bidding $75M for Blue Jays rights?

The Maple Leafs local TV agreement is in the neighborhood of $50M annually I think.

I not sure the Blue Jays are getting a 50% premium on that.

Blue Jays average about 1M households at their peak (2016), that's pretty close to the 1.2M i've found reported for Leafs games on average at their peak. So my guess is they base their Blue Jays TV rights on what the Leafs are able to get.

I guess Blue Jays do play about 2x games though so maybe that should be factored in.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I don't know.

If it was an open bidding war would either TSN or Rogers be bidding $75M for Blue Jays rights.

The Maple Leafs local TV agreement is in the neighborhood of $50M annually I think.

I not sure the Blue Jays are getting a 50% premium on that.

Blue Jays average about 1M households at their peak (2016), that's pretty close to the 1.2M i've found reported for Leafs games on average at their peak. So my guess is they base their Blue Jays TV rights on what the Leafs are able to get.

Relative to the Leafs rights $75 million for the Blue Jays makes sense to me because the Blue Jays play twice as many games.

[bluejays]

It may be a different demographic (Jays vs. Leafs) though. There's more to these deals than just tv viewship numbers. At a consultant level there's no way the Jays = Leafs in popularity, so why would anyone think me at a high level, would be willing to pay equal money for the Jays as the Leafs? Doesn't seem plausible.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by fleury

It may be a different demographic (Jays vs. Leafs) though. There's more to these deals than just tv viewship numbers. At a consultant level there's no way the Jays = Leafs in popularity, so why would anyone think me at a high level, would be willing to pay equal money for the Jays as the Leafs? Doesn't seem plausible.

(1) More games (twice as many)

(2) Shown across Canada vs. just Ontario

(3) Summer vs. Winter when you might have less programming options and less competition (NBA, NFL, etc.)

[Inferno]

Unless Edwin ends up coming back or they end up trading for Price, with Smoak and Tepera officially signing elsewhere that's it for any connection to '15-'16.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

(1) More games (twice as many)

(2) Shown across Canada vs. just Ontario

(3) Summer vs. Winter when you might have less programming options and less competition (NBA, NFL, etc.)

I don't disagree, but there are counter to those as well. More games but less consistent times (some afternoon, some evening). Across Canada yes, but as a product company am I aiming to sell my high end Lincoln to someone in Newfoundland when the average salary may be $40k? Just an example (not that I mean that). Summer people are also out and about more because of other things to do. Anyway, I still don't think the Jays contract is even close to as valuable to the Leafs one.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by fleury

I don't disagree, but there are counter to those as well. More games but less consistent times (some afternoon, some evening). Across Canada yes, but as a product company am I aiming to sell my high end Lincoln to someone in Newfoundland when the average salary may be $40k? Just an example (not that I mean that). Summer people are also out and about more because of other things to do. Anyway, I still don't think the Jays contract is even close to as valuable to the Leafs one.

One thing I've noticed Sportsnet does is sell ads regionally. So a Jays game could be on but the ad playing on Sportsnet West is different from Sportsnet Pacific, East, etc. I don't think any other team in MLB has this ability so it should be a competitive advantage.

[Harry Lime]

Baseball is a nationally played sport. A large number of people in every major city can afford Lincolns. Only 1 in 4 people outside of Toronto ride a mule or use a horse drawn carriage. The contracts are national for television and radio.

75M annual value is probably on the low side, but fair. 36M self reported value is game playing. No one would really care, because all it really does is exempt the Jays from equalization, but they are also cheap on the field, which is the issue. They are getting a 40M advantage over other clubs, which is why major baseball centres like LA, NY and Chicago are following the Toronto model and starting or buying their own stations for local coverage.

Toronto should be operating like Milwaukee, but with a free Gerrit Cole every year.

I don't even mind the cheapness for the last 2 years, or what will probably be cheapness for this year, because (as mentioned previously) it's buying the renovations to the Skydome. That should make it easier to draw talent, as well.

I just don't want them crying about being poor after the renovation. The fans watching a crappy onfield product for 3 years, and still supporting them, is what bought it.

[Harry Lime]

The Chicago White Sox and left-hander Dallas Keuchel have agreed to a $55 million, three-year deal, a person familiar with the negotiations told The Associated Press.

Well, it's likely Ryu re-signs or moves to the Angels, so it's trade or bust.

Good price for Keuchel.

[flames_fan_down_under]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/ml...one-year-deal/

Jays have signed Travis Shaw to a 1 year deal worth $4 million dollars. He still has one arbitration year left as well. Bit of a reclamation project. He was pretty good in 2017 and 2018 then fell off a cliff last year and was demoted to AAA. I actually don't mind the move.

[Roof-Daddy]

I like the Shaw signing.

If he bounces back great, if not nothing really lost.

Also:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1208839442552836101

[flamingred89]

I’m not going to lie. I really like the idea of Price. So I’m hoping where there’s smoke there’s fire.

Also can’t go wrong with that Travis Shaw deal. 1 year 4 million is pretty harmless no matter which way you look at it.

All of a sudden things are starting to take shape and looking like a team that wants to compete.